Hailstorm Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Greetings, fellow weather enthusiasts. As we are all aware, December 26, 2011 is approaching at a rapid pace. One year ago from today, all of us were committed to a harrowing, frustrating, and sometimes outlandish task of analyzing model runs seven days prior to what became one of our most cherished snowstorm in decades. In addition to witnessing several moderators banning or suspending pessimistic posters prior to the event, we all basically experienced overly enthusiastic and giddy times at the opposite end of the spectrum. Even when the event was over, the debacle of New York City's failed and feeble reaction to the blizzard was a memorizing fiasco in itself. Moreover, our trust in particular models and synoptic weather patterns were put to to the test. To commemorate the upcoming one-year anniversary of the famous (and infamous to some) grandfather of blizzards that our area has ever encountered, I would like all of you to contribute to this thread as much as possible. However, to enjoy the full extent of this memorable event, I highly recommend each of you to post the suggested information from the list below in a timely fashion in conjunction with last year's and this year's current date up to and including the day of the actual blizzard date. For example, if you want to post the 12/20/2010 12z GFS model run of the blizzard, you should post it in this thread at around noon on 12/20/2011 of this year. Similarly, if you want to post a radar loop of the storm that was dated on 12/26/2010 at 11 PM, you should post it in this thread on 12/26/2011 of this year at around that time. In other words, I want each of you to relive the event as if you all were experiencing it in real-time today. Feel free to post the following in this thread: -Snippets of meteorologists' thoughts and forecast of the blizzard from Facebook, Twitter, blogs, forums, etc. -Archived medium-range model runs and short-term models (RUC, MM5, HRRR, etc.) -Satellite loops -Radar loops -Water vapor loops -SPC analysis maps -NWS point-and-click forecasts -HPC discussions -On-air meteorologists' snowfall accumulation maps Without any further ado, let me post the 174-hour 12/19/2010 0z GFS run (since it matches up to the date and time right now) from last year that was one of the first GFS runs that caught our storm, seven days in advance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 What a beautiful storm it was. Here is a snippet from Upton the night of the 26th. Tonight: Snow and widespread blowing snow before 5am, then areas of blowing snow and a chance of snow after 5am. The snow could be heavy at times. Some thunder is also possible. Low around 20. Wind chill values as low as -1. Very windy, with a north wind between 33 and 40 mph, with gusts as high as 55 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total nighttime snow accumulation of 14 to 20 inches possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Momza Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Can we post the opinions & ideas of forum posters as they happened back then? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Exactly one year ago to the minute, we were all discussing how the GFS had just shown an inland runner. My immediate response was "very little chance of happening". Then the GEFS came out and at 6:14pm 12/19/2010 I said: Regardless of what the surface may be showing, seeing a 990mb surface low on the ensemble mean this range is a very robust signal no matter how you try to slice it. So there you go. We can re-live this in real time, and then flash back to this years pattern and start crying of depression. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 One year ago today it was Euro that first picked up on a severe winter storm in the east..GFS had a decent system going thru the midwest and east Christmas eve and Christmas day , 18z GFS had a inland wet solution lol..Euro had it delayed with a fully phased system for the 26th and 27th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 One year ago today it was Euro that first picked up on a severe winter storm in the east..GFS had a decent system going thru the midwest and east Christmas eve and Christmas day , 18z GFS had a inland wet solution lol..Euro had it delayed with a fully phased system for the 26th and 27th GFS last night one year ago had a MECS too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 GFS last night one year ago had a MECS too I remember that GGEM had an out of sea solution until 24 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 I remember that GGEM had an out of sea solution until 24 hours that model was a total sh*t show the entire way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 that model was a total sh*t show the entire way. Josh was screaming like a little girl on the phone when the 12z GFS showed a monster hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Josh was screaming like a little girl on the phone when the 12z GFS showed a monster hit. Yes..forever known as the "schoolgirl voicemail". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Josh was screaming like a little girl on the phone when the 12z GFS showed a monster hit. well, if one of you picked up your phone i could have screamed in your ear Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Yes..forever known as the "schoolgirl voicemail". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 at least no one started a 12/19 thread today, thank goodness Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 well, if one of you picked up your phone i could have screamed in your ear I was talking to you at work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 I was talking to you at work. oh yeah, you were the only one that picked up, now i remember awesome morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 he's just sad because his parents wouldn't let him use the computer that day, he was grounded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 at least no one started a 12/19 thread today, thank goodness I'll take that 11" in a heartbeat. Are u nuts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 I'll take that 11" in a heartbeat. Are u nuts? were you using earthlights ruler? 9 inches, max, probably less in and out in about 5 hours. pathetic for all the build up and hype. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 were you using earthlights ruler? 9 inches, max, probably less in and out in about 5 hours. pathetic for all the build up and hype. NYC received 10.9". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 oh yeah, you were the only one that picked up, now i remember awesome morning. You should have seen how happy I was when you told me about the gfs. You then called me to tell me that the HPC said the gfs had errors. You were pissed off. I'll take that 11" in a heartbeat. Are u nuts? He is off his rocker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted December 20, 2011 Author Share Posted December 20, 2011 HPC Discussion for 12/19/2010 about the upcoming blizzard: PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSIONNWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD400 AM EST SUN DEC 19 2010 VALID 12Z THU DEC 23 2010 - 12Z SUN DEC 26 2010 ...INCREASING CHANCES FOR A MAJOR WINTER STORM FROM THE MIDWEST TOTHE EAST COAST TOWARD CHRISTMAS...USED THE 00Z ECMWF FOR THE PRELIMINARY FRONTS AND PRESSURES FORDAYS 3 THROUGH 7. THE 00Z ECMWF WAS IN PHENOMENALLY GOODAGREEMENT WITH THE GFS WITH THE TRACK AND RELATIVE INTENSITY OFTHE MAJOR WAVE TRACKING ACROSS THE MIDWEST DAY 5 TO OFF THE MIDATLANTIC COAST DAY 7. FURTHERMORE...THE 00Z/19 GEFS MEAN IS VERYCLOSE TO THE 12Z/18 ECENS MEAN WITH THE SAME SYSTEM...ADDITIONALLYPARTICULARLY ROBUST SUPPORT. USED THE ECMWF SINCE ITS DETAILSTEND TO VERIFY BETTER IN THE MEDIUM RANGE...WHICH MAY HELP TO SORTOUT THE NOISY SHORTWAVE ENERGY RESURGING INTO THE WEST THISPERIOD.CISCO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 I'll take that 11" in a heartbeat. Are u nuts? Right now I'll take one tenth of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 HPC Discussion for 12/19/2010 about the upcoming blizzard: PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSIONNWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD400 AM EST SUN DEC 19 2010 VALID 12Z THU DEC 23 2010 - 12Z SUN DEC 26 2010 ...INCREASING CHANCES FOR A MAJOR WINTER STORM FROM THE MIDWEST TOTHE EAST COAST TOWARD CHRISTMAS...USED THE 00Z ECMWF FOR THE PRELIMINARY FRONTS AND PRESSURES FORDAYS 3 THROUGH 7. THE 00Z ECMWF WAS IN PHENOMENALLY GOODAGREEMENT WITH THE GFS WITH THE TRACK AND RELATIVE INTENSITY OFTHE MAJOR WAVE TRACKING ACROSS THE MIDWEST DAY 5 TO OFF THE MIDATLANTIC COAST DAY 7. FURTHERMORE...THE 00Z/19 GEFS MEAN IS VERYCLOSE TO THE 12Z/18 ECENS MEAN WITH THE SAME SYSTEM...ADDITIONALLYPARTICULARLY ROBUST SUPPORT. USED THE ECMWF SINCE ITS DETAILSTEND TO VERIFY BETTER IN THE MEDIUM RANGE...WHICH MAY HELP TO SORTOUT THE NOISY SHORTWAVE ENERGY RESURGING INTO THE WEST THISPERIOD.CISCO they should have stuck to their guns, they bailed at the last minute Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted December 20, 2011 Author Share Posted December 20, 2011 What a beautiful storm it was. Here is a snippet from Upton the night of the 26th. Anthony, you were supposed to post that forecast on 12/26 of this year to fulfill this thread's theme. It's okay though. Just try not to do it again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted December 20, 2011 Author Share Posted December 20, 2011 Can we post the opinions & ideas of forum posters as they happened back then? I would prefer not to since that would require a lot of digging back and sifting through tens of thousands of posts. However, you can post any AFD of Upton, Mt. Holly or New England as well, in addition to my above list of suggested content. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted December 20, 2011 Author Share Posted December 20, 2011 Henry Margusity's thoughts about the upcoming blizzard on 12/19/2010. http://www.accuweath...s-day-storm.asp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 sadly the best part of that storm for me was the first hour and that first band made up for it though with my 1/27 jackpot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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