WinterWxLuvr Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Anybody think the Euro pulls the football at 12z? Honestly, there is a positive here. I can't see how anybody puts any faith in any forecast beyond about 4 days. That's good for us since the longer range forecasts don't seem to be too positive right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 That's a bummer but not unexpected. What's bad is the beginning of January probably is going to still have the nao and ao positive. If the epo stays positive then we get some really warm days. there is legit cold air in Canada migrating south and east at day 10, but the pattern is so wretched it will all end up deep in Quebec with an impenetrable force field well north of the US/Canada border....If there is no mechanism capable of delivering cold air to INternational Falls, what are we supposed to do?....North Dakota/Northern MN will easily put up +10 departures for the month if the models are right...Fargo hit 55 on Sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Anybody think the Euro pulls the football at 12z? Honestly, there is a positive here. I can't see how anybody puts any faith in any forecast beyond about 4 days. That's good for us since the longer range forecasts don't seem to be too positive right now. wouldnt be shocking. it is not exactly steady even if its steadier than the gfs. ther should be some storm but i would not bet on any details. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Anybody think the Euro pulls the football at 12z? Honestly, there is a positive here. I can't see how anybody puts any faith in any forecast beyond about 4 days. That's good for us since the longer range forecasts don't seem to be too positive right now. it could definitely be overdoing the PNA ridge which if true would suggest an OTS solution might be more likely....we do have a window of opportunity with the transient high to the north....it would be nice to get some QPF up here and just see what happens...even if I am rain, where you live could be frozen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 there is legit cold air in Canada migrating south and east at day 10, but the pattern is so wretched it will all end up deep in Quebec with an impenetrable force field well north of the US/Canada border....If there is no mechanism capable of delivering cold air to INternational Falls, what are we supposed to do?....North Dakota/Northern MN will easily put up +10 departures for the month if the models are right...Fargo hit 55 on Sunday This winter is starting to remind me of a couple of winters around 1990. Not wrt specifics, but I remember 90-91 being awful, but the one I wanted to ask you about was 89-90. I remember that year very well. Seems like the weather turned cold that year as soon as Hugo passed through. I remember October being cold, snow at Thanksgiving, and most of December being just cold and snowy. I also remember very well the flipping of the switch right after Christmas and that was it. Over. You mentioned a pretty extreme scenario in your post above. Any thoughts on the idea that extreme in one direction might lead to extreme in the other. And possibly quickly and permanently (semi) like 1989-90? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 GFS ensemble mean seems a little closer to the Euro. I'd guess there at least a handful of members with a Euro-like solution given an area of precip through the southeast on Christmas day and then off NE on Boxing Day. 850s are also substantially colder then the Op at the same time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC_WX Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 This winter is starting to remind me of a couple of winters around 1990. Not wrt specifics, but I remember 90-91 being awful, but the one I wanted to ask you about was 89-90. I remember that year very well. Seems like the weather turned cold that year as soon as Hugo passed through. I remember October being cold, snow at Thanksgiving, and most of December being just cold and snowy. I also remember very well the flipping of the switch right after Christmas and that was it. Over. You mentioned a pretty extreme scenario in your post above. Any thoughts on the idea that extreme in one direction might lead to extreme in the other. And possibly quickly and permanently (semi) like 1989-90? December 1989 was legendary cold, but the pattern broke down around new years and was blowtorch warm thereafter. Very similar to 2005-06 evolution. We need the opposite to occur this year, something like 1984-85. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Does anyone know of a website with a good summary of conditions for each winter locally? Since I've been away from the Mid-Atlantic for a good chunk of my adult life and I don't really remember details in the 80s (since I was a kid), such a website would be very helpful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 December 1989 was legendary cold, but the pattern broke down around new years and was blowtorch warm thereafter. Very similar to 2005-06 evolution. We need the opposite to occur this year, something like 1984-85. I posted the comparison of Nov. 1984 to Nov. 2011 a while back. I can't imagine a 500 match any better. The Dec patterns so far are comparable but not nearly as good of a match. I sure would take a flip like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Like they say...35 and rain is better than 55 and partly cloudy. No. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 No. Exactly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 12Z Canadian shows a nice rainstorm where GFS has nothing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC_WX Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 I posted the comparison of Nov. 1984 to Nov. 2011 a while back. I can't imagine a 500 match any better. The Dec patterns so far are comparable but not nearly as good of a match. I sure would take a flip like that. I have vivid memories of December 2005...everyone was convinced around this time that the frigid pattern was set and would persist deep into January as far as the eye could see. In a period of about 48 hours, all of the long range modeling reversed and the pattern collapsed almost as rapidly. Denial quickly set in, as if we were simply "reloading". IIRC, the reloading took until early February and never really amounted to much then as far as sustained cold. That experience taught me that if a big pattern change is coming in winter, it's not necessarily going to reveal itself in the modeling until it's on the precipice of actually happening, and in all actuality can occur very fast and unexpectedly under the proper circumstances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 12Z Canadian shows a nice rainstorm where GFS has nothing At least it has the storm, we can worry about temps as it gets closer. I just want something to track even if it ends up as all rain, in this pattern that is the best we can ask for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 I have vivid memories of December 2005...everyone was convinced around this time that the frigid pattern was set and would persist deep into January as far as the eye could see. In a period of about 48 hours, all of the long range modeling reversed and the pattern collapsed almost as rapidly. Denial quickly set in, as if we were simply "reloading". IIRC, the reloading took until early February and never really amounted to much then as far as sustained cold. That experience taught me that if a big pattern change is coming in winter, it's not necessarily going to reveal itself in the modeling until it's on the precipice of actually happening, and in all actuality can occur very fast and unexpectedly under the proper circumstances. though I don't necessarily disagree with you, I think that situation happens when we go from cold to warm I can't recall too many winters where we switched that fast from warm to cold....in fact, I can't recall any (2/07 is a maybe) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 No. Exactly. I'm only going on what "they" say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 12Z Canadian shows a nice rainstorm where GFS has nothing BIG rainstorm. Drives it up the Apps and then jumps to the coast it looks like. 3 GEFS members have a (rain)storm along the coast on Christmas that gives us precip. A few more have a storm that stays more surpressed. The rest have nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC_WX Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 though I don't necessarily disagree with you, I think that situation happens when we go from cold to warm I can't recall too many winters where we switched that fast from warm to cold....in fact, I can't recall any (2/07 is a maybe) 1999-2000 would be the most recent example I can think of beyond your February 2007 example...1984-85 is another. Agreed they haven't occurred as often but they occur I suppose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 This winter is starting to remind me of a couple of winters around 1990. Not wrt specifics, but I remember 90-91 being awful, but the one I wanted to ask you about was 89-90. I remember that year very well. Seems like the weather turned cold that year as soon as Hugo passed through. I remember October being cold, snow at Thanksgiving, and most of December being just cold and snowy. I also remember very well the flipping of the switch right after Christmas and that was it. Over. You mentioned a pretty extreme scenario in your post above. Any thoughts on the idea that extreme in one direction might lead to extreme in the other. And possibly quickly and permanently (semi) like 1989-90? I don't know in 89-90, a vortex migrated into the GOA and that was it...winter over (until March).....ENSO wasn't a factor though there was a NIna hangover.....but I am guessing there was no significant forcing coming from the Pacific, so other factors took over....A nina profile took over and there was nothing to dislodge it..... This winter the predominant default in the Pacific is probably going to be Nina driven...even with this +PNA that isn't much use, it looks like we are going back to a +EPO look next week....looking back at some other Nina years like 99-00, I think any real pattern changes are going to have be led by the Atlantic...I know Wes has been driving this home for while now and not that I didn't accept it, but I thought we could operate ok with a bad Atlantic....we can't other than fluky events and maybe in more climo favorable periods we can get a bit luckier with something digging and closing off....but until we see blocking I think we are pretty much screwed....and I think that has to happen 1st and then the PAC will follow....I don't know how that can/will evolve...but the MJO is currently stalled in the COD in the most wretched phases so I imagine until that restrengthens and progresses into the later phases, there won't be much change Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Of the course the Euro is going to punt. If not today, tonight. It hasn't been steady worth a damn. This is an untenable pattern. There is nothing to look forward to. Everytime we have to depend on A+C -B divided by D to get what we need to happen, it never works out. We need a solid pattern and not luck. Would I be happy with 1 to 2 inches of slop followed by rain...of course I would be and I'll keep watching, but for what really. It's ok to be optimistic, but I'm going with realistic and work from there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 I don't know in 89-90, a vortex migrated into the GOA and that was it...winter over (until March).....ENSO wasn't a factor though there was a NIna hangover.....but I am guessing there was no significant forcing coming from the Pacific, so other factors took over....A nina profile took over and there was nothing to dislodge it..... This winter the predominant default in the Pacific is probably going to be Nina driven...even with this +PNA that isn't much use, it looks like we are going back to a +EPO look next week....looking back at some other Nina years like 99-00, I think any real pattern changes are going to have be led by the Atlantic...I know Wes has been driving this home for while now and not that I didn't accept it, but I thought we could operate ok with a bad Atlantic....we can't other than fluky events and maybe in more climo favorable periods we can get a bit luckier with something digging and closing off....but until we see blocking I think we are pretty much screwed....and I think that has to happen 1st and then the PAC will follow....I don't know how that can/will evolve...but the MJO is currently stalled in the COD in the most wretched phases so I imagine until that restrengthens and progresses into the later phases, there won't be much change pretty much every GFS ensemble member has the MJO stalling in phase 5 for another 2 weeks or longer.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Does anyone know of a website with a good summary of conditions for each winter locally? Since I've been away from the Mid-Atlantic for a good chunk of my adult life and I don't really remember details in the 80s (since I was a kid), such a website would be very helpful. I like these monthly summaries, but I don't know the link to all of them. I can only find them individually through a google search ("december+2005+BWI+weather" worked). If anyone knows of a database to all of them, I'd like a link too. http://www.nws.noaa.gov/os/presto/presto2005/2005dectable.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 12z GEFS mean in the long range is still wretched. Maybe not quite as wretched as the Op, but pretty bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Of the course the Euro is going to punt. If not today, tonight. It hasn't been steady worth a damn. This is an untenable pattern. There is nothing to look forward to. Everytime we have to depend on A+C -B divided by D to get what we need to happen, it never works out. We need a solid pattern and not luck. Would I be happy with 1 to 2 inches of slop followed by rain...of course I would be and I'll keep watching, but for what really. It's ok to be optimistic, but I'm going with realistic and work from there. I'm thinking it's time to be happy for the people in Kansas and move along.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar of Herndon Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 I don't know in 89-90, a vortex migrated into the GOA and that was it...winter over (until March).....ENSO wasn't a factor though there was a NIna hangover.....but I am guessing there was no significant forcing coming from the Pacific, so other factors took over....A nina profile took over and there was nothing to dislodge it..... This winter the predominant default in the Pacific is probably going to be Nina driven...even with this +PNA that isn't much use, it looks like we are going back to a +EPO look next week....looking back at some other Nina years like 99-00, I think any real pattern changes are going to have be led by the Atlantic...I know Wes has been driving this home for while now and not that I didn't accept it, but I thought we could operate ok with a bad Atlantic....we can't other than fluky events and maybe in more climo favorable periods we can get a bit luckier with something digging and closing off....but until we see blocking I think we are pretty much screwed....and I think that has to happen 1st and then the PAC will follow....I don't know how that can/will evolve...but the MJO is currently stalled in the COD in the most wretched phases so I imagine until that restrengthens and progresses into the later phases, there won't be much change For now I am staying with HM's call that change will come after mid January. I am assuming he is seeing changes in the Atlantic side. Anything before then is a gift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 not to be a butt but we have a winter thread as well.. this one is technically about the non events coming up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Does anyone know of a website with a good summary of conditions for each winter locally? Since I've been away from the Mid-Atlantic for a good chunk of my adult life and I don't really remember details in the 80s (since I was a kid), such a website would be very helpful. these go back to 89..so not helpful for most of the 80s.....gymengineer has a bunch of newspaper articles....but I don't really know of anything that summarizes those winters other than memory and data and the KU book http://www.nws.noaa.gov/os/presto/index2011.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 For now I am staying with HM's call that change will come after mid January. I am assuming he is seeing changes in the Atlantic side. Anything before then is a gift. HM was pretty bullish on the January 10th period as were some others....Not sure that is still a tenable period though still 3 weeks away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 BIG rainstorm. Drives it up the Apps and then jumps to the coast it looks like. 3 GEFS members have a (rain)storm along the coast on Christmas that gives us precip. A few more have a storm that stays more surpressed. The rest have nothing. It is interesting that the ones that have precip with the storm are rainstorms. I think they illustrate how crappy and thread the needle the pattern is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 these go back to 89..so not helpful for most of the 80s.....gymengineer has a bunch of newspaper articles....but I don't really know of anything that summarizes those winters other than memory and data and the KU book http://www.nws.noaa....index2011.shtml Thanks! That's exactly what I was looking for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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