mattie g Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 No. Exactly. I'm only going on what "they" say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 12Z Canadian shows a nice rainstorm where GFS has nothing BIG rainstorm. Drives it up the Apps and then jumps to the coast it looks like. 3 GEFS members have a (rain)storm along the coast on Christmas that gives us precip. A few more have a storm that stays more surpressed. The rest have nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC_WX Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 though I don't necessarily disagree with you, I think that situation happens when we go from cold to warm I can't recall too many winters where we switched that fast from warm to cold....in fact, I can't recall any (2/07 is a maybe) 1999-2000 would be the most recent example I can think of beyond your February 2007 example...1984-85 is another. Agreed they haven't occurred as often but they occur I suppose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Of the course the Euro is going to punt. If not today, tonight. It hasn't been steady worth a damn. This is an untenable pattern. There is nothing to look forward to. Everytime we have to depend on A+C -B divided by D to get what we need to happen, it never works out. We need a solid pattern and not luck. Would I be happy with 1 to 2 inches of slop followed by rain...of course I would be and I'll keep watching, but for what really. It's ok to be optimistic, but I'm going with realistic and work from there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Does anyone know of a website with a good summary of conditions for each winter locally? Since I've been away from the Mid-Atlantic for a good chunk of my adult life and I don't really remember details in the 80s (since I was a kid), such a website would be very helpful. I like these monthly summaries, but I don't know the link to all of them. I can only find them individually through a google search ("december+2005+BWI+weather" worked). If anyone knows of a database to all of them, I'd like a link too. http://www.nws.noaa.gov/os/presto/presto2005/2005dectable.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 12z GEFS mean in the long range is still wretched. Maybe not quite as wretched as the Op, but pretty bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Of the course the Euro is going to punt. If not today, tonight. It hasn't been steady worth a damn. This is an untenable pattern. There is nothing to look forward to. Everytime we have to depend on A+C -B divided by D to get what we need to happen, it never works out. We need a solid pattern and not luck. Would I be happy with 1 to 2 inches of slop followed by rain...of course I would be and I'll keep watching, but for what really. It's ok to be optimistic, but I'm going with realistic and work from there. I'm thinking it's time to be happy for the people in Kansas and move along.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar of Herndon Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 I don't know in 89-90, a vortex migrated into the GOA and that was it...winter over (until March).....ENSO wasn't a factor though there was a NIna hangover.....but I am guessing there was no significant forcing coming from the Pacific, so other factors took over....A nina profile took over and there was nothing to dislodge it..... This winter the predominant default in the Pacific is probably going to be Nina driven...even with this +PNA that isn't much use, it looks like we are going back to a +EPO look next week....looking back at some other Nina years like 99-00, I think any real pattern changes are going to have be led by the Atlantic...I know Wes has been driving this home for while now and not that I didn't accept it, but I thought we could operate ok with a bad Atlantic....we can't other than fluky events and maybe in more climo favorable periods we can get a bit luckier with something digging and closing off....but until we see blocking I think we are pretty much screwed....and I think that has to happen 1st and then the PAC will follow....I don't know how that can/will evolve...but the MJO is currently stalled in the COD in the most wretched phases so I imagine until that restrengthens and progresses into the later phases, there won't be much change For now I am staying with HM's call that change will come after mid January. I am assuming he is seeing changes in the Atlantic side. Anything before then is a gift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 not to be a butt but we have a winter thread as well.. this one is technically about the non events coming up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 BIG rainstorm. Drives it up the Apps and then jumps to the coast it looks like. 3 GEFS members have a (rain)storm along the coast on Christmas that gives us precip. A few more have a storm that stays more surpressed. The rest have nothing. It is interesting that the ones that have precip with the storm are rainstorms. I think they illustrate how crappy and thread the needle the pattern is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 these go back to 89..so not helpful for most of the 80s.....gymengineer has a bunch of newspaper articles....but I don't really know of anything that summarizes those winters other than memory and data and the KU book http://www.nws.noaa....index2011.shtml Thanks! That's exactly what I was looking for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 HM was pretty bullish on the January 10th period as were some others....Not sure that is still a tenable period though still 3 weeks away That time period fit the earlier D+11 analogs. I haven't looked closely at them lately. Too much other stuff to do like writing cards. I don't like the pattern I see for early Jan but as you say it's really early to make definitive calls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 not to be a butt but we have a winter thread as well.. this one is technically about the non events coming up Youre such a butt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 these go back to 89..so not helpful for most of the 80s.....gymengineer has a bunch of newspaper articles....but I don't really know of anything that summarizes those winters other than memory and data and the KU book http://www.nws.noaa....index2011.shtml Thanks! It is interesting that the ones that have precip with the storm are rainstorms. I think they illustrate how crappy and thread the needle the pattern is. Yup. Just not enough cold air around to make this an easy snowfall, even with a weak/surpressed system. euro out to 42 Euro! Euro! Euro!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Youre such a butt sne and the ma have switched roles i think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 sne and the ma have switched roles i think Nah. You set yourself up. I hope other posts are removed, and/or put in their proper locations too other than just mine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Nah. You set yourself up. I hope other posts are removed, and/or put in their proper locations too other than just mine. wasnt talking about that really.. just in general. they're all down on the storm while we're all weenieing it up etc. i brought your post back--didnt remove it. but we've got play by play to do so we should probably stop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 wasnt talking about that really.. just in general. they're all down on the storm while we're all weenieing it up etc. i brought your post back--didnt remove it. but we've got play by play to do so we should probably stop. yes, sir! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 pretty much every GFS ensemble member has the MJO stalling in phase 5 for another 2 weeks or longer.... If we can't get that thing to crank back up and start moving to the favorable phases then it will be a long winter indeed regardless of what the immediate chances are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 hr 120 looking good for dc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 The high is starting to do its work on Saturday...looks like low to mid 40s in the afternoon and early evening 850s are okay at 96... 0c line is in C VA down to near RIC... -2c is just south of DC near EZF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 hr 120 looking good for dc do tell???? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 im already at 132 hrs dude all rain for I95 Matt? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Frederick/MRB/Ji special till 0z when it's a little warmer and 12z when it's a little warmer than that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 im already at 132 hrs dude I know... you mentioned the temps on Sat... so I thought i would mention the 850s as well. I know you get it faster than me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 do tell???? looks like a smidge more precip in the panel before 850s warm but it could just be faster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 looks like a front end thump low is over charlotte at 126 warmth is racing north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 till 0z when it's a little warmer and 12z when it's a little warmer than that you've noticed that pattern this year too, ehh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 till 0z when it's a little warmer and 12z when it's a little warmer than that If this year's trends hold. Still the euro holding might get Jason to want an article tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 If this year's trends hold. Still the euro holding might get Jason to want an article tomorrow. Wes what would it take for the HP to hold in instead of sliding east. Is that even a possibility?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.