Midlo Snow Maker Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 gfs is night and day compared to the 0z euro for christmas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 at least it will be cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Ji is usually right........... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 at least it will be cold and wet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 gfs is night and day compared to the 0z euro for christmas Yeah. Seemed to be setting the stage and then nothing happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Yeah. Seemed to be setting the stage and then nothing happens. This far out, its a step in the right direction. Thats all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheesyPoofs Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 and wet Not if the GFS is right -- unless you are referring to Thursday night? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Yeah. Seemed to be setting the stage and then nothing happens. The GFS lets the northern stream overwhelm the weaker southern stream. Look at the steady progression of shortwaves across Canada which initially push the surface high off the coast and then keep the pressures in Canada low. That's a nasty look. You suppress the euro storm and then let the postive wpo and epo start flooding canada and the northern plains with warm air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 GFS ditched the idea of 2 lows at least. Low passes over midlo's house and off the coast of friday. Just no darn cold air. 850 0c all the way up in northern PA. I find it odd that the gfs also ditched the idea of another low forming down south after the first one clears out on Sat. I mean nothing at all? Seems possible but kinda strange either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Not if the GFS is right -- unless you are referring to Thursday night? im assuming the gfs is wrong entirely but who knows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 GFS is trying to set up something for the 28th-29th it looks like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 im assuming the gfs is wrong entirely but who knows I hope you're right because the run is a total bummer so far. Not only does it pull the rug on the second system, the pattern next week looks absolutely hideous. Dry cold front in the Wed timeframe and alot of above normal temps before it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 GFS is trying to set up something for the 28th-29th it looks like. Another miss. Hideous pattern the week after Xmas if GFS is correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 I hope you're right because the run is a total bummer so far. Not only does it pull the rug on the second system, the pattern next week looks absolutely hideous. Dry cold front in the Wed timeframe and alot of above normal temps before it. well it's probably right on the hideousness but not the storm. tho maybe both. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Euro is the same..the entire CONUS is an oven after Christmas through the end of the run.... That's a bummer but not unexpected. What's bad is the beginning of January probably is going to still have the nao and ao positive. If the epo stays positive then we get some really warm days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 I'm loving the idea of heading to SC tomorrow. Highs around 70 with partly cloudy skies through Christmas Eve, then a cooldown with some potential rain a day or two over the time period. Fishing and golf. Love it. The pattern sucks for snow here, so I'm joyfully embracing my inner snowbird. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Well at least it will be a cold rain. Like they say...35 and rain is better than 55 and partly cloudy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Anybody think the Euro pulls the football at 12z? Honestly, there is a positive here. I can't see how anybody puts any faith in any forecast beyond about 4 days. That's good for us since the longer range forecasts don't seem to be too positive right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Anybody think the Euro pulls the football at 12z? Honestly, there is a positive here. I can't see how anybody puts any faith in any forecast beyond about 4 days. That's good for us since the longer range forecasts don't seem to be too positive right now. wouldnt be shocking. it is not exactly steady even if its steadier than the gfs. ther should be some storm but i would not bet on any details. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 there is legit cold air in Canada migrating south and east at day 10, but the pattern is so wretched it will all end up deep in Quebec with an impenetrable force field well north of the US/Canada border....If there is no mechanism capable of delivering cold air to INternational Falls, what are we supposed to do?....North Dakota/Northern MN will easily put up +10 departures for the month if the models are right...Fargo hit 55 on Sunday This winter is starting to remind me of a couple of winters around 1990. Not wrt specifics, but I remember 90-91 being awful, but the one I wanted to ask you about was 89-90. I remember that year very well. Seems like the weather turned cold that year as soon as Hugo passed through. I remember October being cold, snow at Thanksgiving, and most of December being just cold and snowy. I also remember very well the flipping of the switch right after Christmas and that was it. Over. You mentioned a pretty extreme scenario in your post above. Any thoughts on the idea that extreme in one direction might lead to extreme in the other. And possibly quickly and permanently (semi) like 1989-90? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 GFS ensemble mean seems a little closer to the Euro. I'd guess there at least a handful of members with a Euro-like solution given an area of precip through the southeast on Christmas day and then off NE on Boxing Day. 850s are also substantially colder then the Op at the same time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC_WX Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 This winter is starting to remind me of a couple of winters around 1990. Not wrt specifics, but I remember 90-91 being awful, but the one I wanted to ask you about was 89-90. I remember that year very well. Seems like the weather turned cold that year as soon as Hugo passed through. I remember October being cold, snow at Thanksgiving, and most of December being just cold and snowy. I also remember very well the flipping of the switch right after Christmas and that was it. Over. You mentioned a pretty extreme scenario in your post above. Any thoughts on the idea that extreme in one direction might lead to extreme in the other. And possibly quickly and permanently (semi) like 1989-90? December 1989 was legendary cold, but the pattern broke down around new years and was blowtorch warm thereafter. Very similar to 2005-06 evolution. We need the opposite to occur this year, something like 1984-85. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Does anyone know of a website with a good summary of conditions for each winter locally? Since I've been away from the Mid-Atlantic for a good chunk of my adult life and I don't really remember details in the 80s (since I was a kid), such a website would be very helpful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 December 1989 was legendary cold, but the pattern broke down around new years and was blowtorch warm thereafter. Very similar to 2005-06 evolution. We need the opposite to occur this year, something like 1984-85. I posted the comparison of Nov. 1984 to Nov. 2011 a while back. I can't imagine a 500 match any better. The Dec patterns so far are comparable but not nearly as good of a match. I sure would take a flip like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Like they say...35 and rain is better than 55 and partly cloudy. No. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 No. Exactly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 12Z Canadian shows a nice rainstorm where GFS has nothing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC_WX Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 I posted the comparison of Nov. 1984 to Nov. 2011 a while back. I can't imagine a 500 match any better. The Dec patterns so far are comparable but not nearly as good of a match. I sure would take a flip like that. I have vivid memories of December 2005...everyone was convinced around this time that the frigid pattern was set and would persist deep into January as far as the eye could see. In a period of about 48 hours, all of the long range modeling reversed and the pattern collapsed almost as rapidly. Denial quickly set in, as if we were simply "reloading". IIRC, the reloading took until early February and never really amounted to much then as far as sustained cold. That experience taught me that if a big pattern change is coming in winter, it's not necessarily going to reveal itself in the modeling until it's on the precipice of actually happening, and in all actuality can occur very fast and unexpectedly under the proper circumstances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 12Z Canadian shows a nice rainstorm where GFS has nothing At least it has the storm, we can worry about temps as it gets closer. I just want something to track even if it ends up as all rain, in this pattern that is the best we can ask for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 I have vivid memories of December 2005...everyone was convinced around this time that the frigid pattern was set and would persist deep into January as far as the eye could see. In a period of about 48 hours, all of the long range modeling reversed and the pattern collapsed almost as rapidly. Denial quickly set in, as if we were simply "reloading". IIRC, the reloading took until early February and never really amounted to much then as far as sustained cold. That experience taught me that if a big pattern change is coming in winter, it's not necessarily going to reveal itself in the modeling until it's on the precipice of actually happening, and in all actuality can occur very fast and unexpectedly under the proper circumstances. though I don't necessarily disagree with you, I think that situation happens when we go from cold to warm I can't recall too many winters where we switched that fast from warm to cold....in fact, I can't recall any (2/07 is a maybe) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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