Ji Posted December 20, 2011 Author Share Posted December 20, 2011 unlike the Dec 7 event which turned out to be all Rain even with the models showing a bit of snow at the end....I have lowered my expectations for this event from the beginning so i am expecting rain but hopeful for snow. Last event...i was expecting snow and hoping it wouldnt be mostly rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 unlike the Dec 7 event which turned out to be all Rain even with the models showing a bit of snow at the end....I have lowered my expectations for this event from the beginning so i am expecting rain but hopeful for snow. Last event...i was expecting snow and hoping it wouldnt be mostly rain posted for bumping purposes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Thurs night looks ugly.. heavy heavy rain with the 0c 850 line back in W PA.. 1-2" worth looks like Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 that's a lot of rain on both the NAM and GFS for the 22nd/23rd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Thurs night looks ugly.. heavy heavy rain with the 0c 850 line back in W PA ya' beat me! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Not liking the look at 93... high already scooting out to sea as the low pressure in Quebec is pushing it out... if anything, more rain is coming IMHO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Not liking the look at 93... high already scooting out to sea as the low pressure in Quebec is pushing it out... if anything, more rain is coming IMHO the timing of this run of the GFS and last night's Euro are definitely differently, so I don't know how to read this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 GFS is going to, at least partially, cave to the Euro it looks like for Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardmeiser Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Do we have any chances after this event? I am hearing that January could be a blowtorch for the east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Do we have any chances after this event? I am hearing that January could be a blowtorch for the east don't believe everything you read in JB tweets and JI's threads Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardmeiser Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Not so much confidence with JB but Ji is usually right........... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Eh...maybe a teeny tiny move toward the Euro. Baggy isobars in the southeast at 102-114 made it look like it would pop a low close to the coast when the s/w arrived, but looks like it will be well OTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 gfs is night and day compared to the 0z euro for christmas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 at least it will be cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Ji is usually right........... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 at least it will be cold and wet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 gfs is night and day compared to the 0z euro for christmas Yeah. Seemed to be setting the stage and then nothing happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Yeah. Seemed to be setting the stage and then nothing happens. This far out, its a step in the right direction. Thats all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheesyPoofs Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 and wet Not if the GFS is right -- unless you are referring to Thursday night? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Yeah. Seemed to be setting the stage and then nothing happens. The GFS lets the northern stream overwhelm the weaker southern stream. Look at the steady progression of shortwaves across Canada which initially push the surface high off the coast and then keep the pressures in Canada low. That's a nasty look. You suppress the euro storm and then let the postive wpo and epo start flooding canada and the northern plains with warm air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 GFS ditched the idea of 2 lows at least. Low passes over midlo's house and off the coast of friday. Just no darn cold air. 850 0c all the way up in northern PA. I find it odd that the gfs also ditched the idea of another low forming down south after the first one clears out on Sat. I mean nothing at all? Seems possible but kinda strange either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Not if the GFS is right -- unless you are referring to Thursday night? im assuming the gfs is wrong entirely but who knows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 GFS is trying to set up something for the 28th-29th it looks like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 im assuming the gfs is wrong entirely but who knows I hope you're right because the run is a total bummer so far. Not only does it pull the rug on the second system, the pattern next week looks absolutely hideous. Dry cold front in the Wed timeframe and alot of above normal temps before it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 GFS is trying to set up something for the 28th-29th it looks like. Another miss. Hideous pattern the week after Xmas if GFS is correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 The GFS lets the northern stream overwhelm the weaker southern stream. Look at the steady progression of shortwaves across Canada which initially push the surface high off the coast and then keep the pressures in Canada low. That's a nasty look. You suppress the euro storm and then let the postive wpo and epo start flooding canada and the northern plains with warm air. Euro is the same..the entire CONUS is an oven after Christmas through the end of the run.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 I hope you're right because the run is a total bummer so far. Not only does it pull the rug on the second system, the pattern next week looks absolutely hideous. Dry cold front in the Wed timeframe and alot of above normal temps before it. well it's probably right on the hideousness but not the storm. tho maybe both. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Euro is the same..the entire CONUS is an oven after Christmas through the end of the run.... That's a bummer but not unexpected. What's bad is the beginning of January probably is going to still have the nao and ao positive. If the epo stays positive then we get some really warm days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 I'm loving the idea of heading to SC tomorrow. Highs around 70 with partly cloudy skies through Christmas Eve, then a cooldown with some potential rain a day or two over the time period. Fishing and golf. Love it. The pattern sucks for snow here, so I'm joyfully embracing my inner snowbird. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Well at least it will be a cold rain. Like they say...35 and rain is better than 55 and partly cloudy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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