mappy Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Screw this winter. Why the hell couldn't I be normal and not care about frozen water falling from the sky. Who does that? I look at normal people and wish I could be like them....couldn't care less if it rains, snows...a hurricane hits, etc. Out of all the hobbies in the world, this one picks me. I am sure many here feel the same way. We know deep down that we are following a rainstorm right now, or heck....even a complete miss. But we are so desperate to see snow we will follow even the smallest hint of flakes. We will go through the same up, down, up, down emotions we have in the past, swear we won't fall for it again...but we all know, the next time even a hint of flakes are being shown... we will all be here doing it all again. We are a bunch of freaks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 I am sure many here feel the same way. We know deep down that we are following a rainstorm right now, or heck....even a complete miss. But we are so desperate to see snow we will follow even the smallest hint of flakes. We will go through the same up, down, up, down emotions we have in the past, swear we won't fall for it again...but we all know, the next time even a hint of flakes are being shown... we will all be here doing it all again. We are a bunch of freaks Yeah, but we're a bunch of cool freaks. I can almost guarantee snow for Christmas. I won't be here. Lock it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheesyPoofs Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Screw this winter. Why the hell couldn't I be normal and not care about frozen water falling from the sky. Who does that? I look at normal people and wish I could be like them....couldn't care less if it rains, snows...a hurricane hits, etc. Out of all the hobbies in the world, this one picks me. Well we aren't the only ones who like snow a lot--you can see the inner weenie coming out in the general public whenever it snows. ...we are just the only ones who spend all day tracking events/non-events, stay up until 2am for the Euro when there is a threat and then get up at 4:30 for the GFS, and overall let it impact our day to day moods a lot of the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Well at least it will be a cold rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 fwiw, 12Z NAM surface at 84 hrs shows the model setting the stage ala 0Z Euro http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?page=Image&prevPage=Paramℑ=..%2FGemPakTier%2FMagGemPakImages%2Fnam%2F20111220%2F12%2Fnam_namer_081_10m_wnd_precip.gif&fcast=081&imagesurls=&model=NAM&area=NAMER&storm=&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=10m_wnd_precip&cycle=12%2F20%2F2011+12UTC&imageSize=M&currKey=model&scrollx=0&scrolly=0&nextImage=yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Well at least it will be a cold rain. I'll take 35 degree rain if it means I can chase snow less than an hour away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 I'll take 35 degree rain if it means I can chase snow less than an hour away. I guess I have to give the Euro some respect. We'll see how long it holds I guess. Still what 5 days? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Just a reminder to folks that the PSUHoffman storm occured last year with surface temps above freezing the entire time (at least IMBY and at the airports). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Somehow the Euro looks worse where I'll be and better here. meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Just a reminder to folks that the PSUHoffman storm occured last year with surface temps above freezing the entire time (at least IMBY and at the airports). quite a different storm but of course it can snow above freezing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 you don't want to get emotionally invested in marginal, crappy pattern events, because they usually won't work out at all, but no reason to completely punt the threat unless a chance at a flawed mixy event isn't good enough for you.....looking back at some of our smaller events, particularly in NInas, some of the patterns and setups were awful....was just looking at 1/17/08..I got 2.5" before the changeover and it was like 37/38 at the onset of snow and it never dropped below 34 at DCA....precip lightened...it went to light rain and temp went back up.... Agree. At this point, I wouldn't mind an inch or two at most of snow before a transition to rain... just to see snow again would be nice -- even if it doesn't accum much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Somehow the Euro looks worse where I'll be and better here. meh. snow chase fail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 a lot of our events are flawed, awful events....this probably won't even be that, but unless an event for you has to be an all snow event with temps below 32 that is well modeled, there is no reason to completely punt events as we are getting into a better climo period.... I'm not punting anything, Matt. Just not getting overly excited about it. I am desperate for some flakes too, even a dusting right now will work for me. I'll take whatever Mother Nature decides to give us, be it 35 and rain with a mix to start/end or a sunny day. It is what it is, regardless I'll be here to track it. And the next one and so on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 that's good since DCA would probably average 8-10" if we didn't have those events at all...this is a horrible place to be snow lover, but particularly if an event has to be all snow with an antecedent cold air mass and a good track at all levels and substantial QPF I really have dampened expectations this winter... so I know any snow will be a gift until the pattern changes which won't likely be till mid Jan. Also, I know that the majority of our snow comes in Jan/Feb, but I think the past decade we have been a bit greedy cause we get some snow in December Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 snow chase fail. down here it's still partly reliant on how quick the storm wraps up. even on a good run it's not that strong. can't ignore the euro but also gotta think of how many times the northern stream has screwed us. sure, could get some front end either way tho a weaker sys also probably has less front end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
birdsofprey02 Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 that's good since DCA would probably average 8-10" if we didn't have those events at all...this is a horrible place to be snow lover, but particularly if an event has to be all snow with an antecedent cold air mass and a good track at all levels and substantial QPF I think living in this area (balt/wash) is what actually makes me a snow lover. Many ingredients have to come together for a good snowfall. It doesn't happen all the time (sometimes not even all winter). The rareness of significant snow helps me appreciate when it does happen. If I lived near the lakes or in areas that get more days with snow than not, I probably wouldn't care as much. I certainly don't like to see accidents/damage/injuries, but something about the chaos, anticipation, and overall disruption, that a significant snowfall causes, is quite thrilling to me. That probably wouldn't be the case in the northern areas where its more commonplace and just not a big deal to them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 20, 2011 Author Share Posted December 20, 2011 Even the euro doesn't have the surface temps below freezing as far as I can tell from the Wundermap site. its close enough..33 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 down here it's still partly reliant on how quick the storm wraps up. even on a good run it's not that strong. can't ignore the euro but also gotta think of how many times the northern stream has screwed us. sure, could get some front end either way tho a weaker sys also probably has less front end. Last week the GFS had a bit of an overrun showing for this week. I have been hanging onto that idea for a bit but the models have benn jumping around for which system it would hold for it. I'm sure for us to see anything we have to get the high to the north to stay put just a bit longer. Precip hasn't been much of an issue so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 20, 2011 Author Share Posted December 20, 2011 unlike the Dec 7 event which turned out to be all Rain even with the models showing a bit of snow at the end....I have lowered my expectations for this event from the beginning so i am expecting rain but hopeful for snow. Last event...i was expecting snow and hoping it wouldnt be mostly rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 unlike the Dec 7 event which turned out to be all Rain even with the models showing a bit of snow at the end....I have lowered my expectations for this event from the beginning so i am expecting rain but hopeful for snow. Last event...i was expecting snow and hoping it wouldnt be mostly rain posted for bumping purposes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Thurs night looks ugly.. heavy heavy rain with the 0c 850 line back in W PA.. 1-2" worth looks like Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 that's a lot of rain on both the NAM and GFS for the 22nd/23rd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Thurs night looks ugly.. heavy heavy rain with the 0c 850 line back in W PA ya' beat me! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Not liking the look at 93... high already scooting out to sea as the low pressure in Quebec is pushing it out... if anything, more rain is coming IMHO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Not liking the look at 93... high already scooting out to sea as the low pressure in Quebec is pushing it out... if anything, more rain is coming IMHO the timing of this run of the GFS and last night's Euro are definitely differently, so I don't know how to read this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 GFS is going to, at least partially, cave to the Euro it looks like for Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardmeiser Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Do we have any chances after this event? I am hearing that January could be a blowtorch for the east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Do we have any chances after this event? I am hearing that January could be a blowtorch for the east don't believe everything you read in JB tweets and JI's threads Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardmeiser Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Not so much confidence with JB but Ji is usually right........... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Eh...maybe a teeny tiny move toward the Euro. Baggy isobars in the southeast at 102-114 made it look like it would pop a low close to the coast when the s/w arrived, but looks like it will be well OTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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