Ian Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Is there anyway to ban you?. I'd like to constantly live in a fantasy world but Christmas is more about family than snow anyway so we'll live. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheesyPoofs Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 I'd like to constantly live in a fantasy world but Christmas is more about family than snow anyway so we'll live. True...but that doesn't mean we weren't all depressed for a good while after last year's Boxing Day disaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 True...but that doesn't mean we weren't all depressed for a good while after last year's Boxing Day disaster. It's better to have loved and lost... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheesyPoofs Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 It's better to have loved and lost... More like loved, lost, loved again, and lost again -- the Euro HECS runs all week, then the Euro flip towards the GFS, then the sudden Christmas Eve/Christmas morning miracle model shift, then...nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 JB thinks we are getting snow with the 3rd wave on the 26th. He has us in the area of heaviest snows for the 3rd wave . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Alright we have JB hype + DT down = Wes writeup? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Rainy Christmas Eve and morning of Christmas day advertised by tonights 00z GFS... that's not nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Euro is a decent snow to rain event Christmas morning into Christmas day....there is nothing to keep the high from sliding to the east..but a lot of the precip falls before the changeover and NW burbs might not change over at all before it shuts off....verbatim, I think this would be a 1-3" event for FFX/MOCO....and maybe given the pattern this is the best we can hope for, so we should root for it if it keeps being advertised Yup--just saw the Euro and it is about as good as it can get given the pattern. I agree that, verbatim, it looks like a 1-4" event for the DC/central MD area. This is more likely to be right than the more phased wrapped up GFS solution. However, we are walking a very fine line here and I'm not sure I like being in this spot 5-6 days out. At least it shows what is possible in this time frame. Better get this shot in now because it looks like the first half of January will be dull around here. When the rubber band really snaps in mid-later January, I think we will make up for some lost time. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 20, 2011 Author Share Posted December 20, 2011 Euro looks great if your west of DC. Shows .80 qpf for Leesburg all or mostly snow it looks like Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 20, 2011 Author Share Posted December 20, 2011 6z GFS shows a totally different solution for Christmas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Yup--just saw the Euro and it is about as good as it can get given the pattern. I agree that, verbatim, it looks like a 1-4" event for the DC/central MD area. This is more likely to be right than the more phased wrapped up GFS solution. However, we are walking a very fine line here and I'm not sure I like being in this spot 5-6 days out. At least it shows what is possible in this time frame. Better get this shot in now because it looks like the first half of January will be dull around here. When the rubber band really snaps in mid-later January, I think we will make up for some lost time. MDstorm wh where is the site for the euro maps you are using, Thaniks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 6Z GFS says "Storms? I don't see no stinkin' storms!" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 How's the storm next Monday looking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Those attending sunrise Christmas worship service may see flurries, graupel and a dusting north and west. Pray for this win! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Euro is a decent snow to rain event Christmas morning into Christmas day....there is nothing to keep the high from sliding to the east..but a lot of the precip falls before the changeover and NW burbs might not change over at all before it shuts off....verbatim, I think this would be a 1-3" event for FFX/MOCO....and maybe given the pattern this is the best we can hope for, so we should root for it if it keeps being advertised I'll take 1-3 in a heartbeat at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 I'm pleasantly shocked Euro gives mby several inches of snow Christmas morning yet I believe I have better odds of seeing Santa Claus come down my chimney please don't suck me in Euro, please... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 I'm pleasantly shocked Euro gives mby several inches of snow Christmas morning yet I believe I have better odds of seeing Santa Claus come down my chimney please don't suck me in Euro, please... It Christmas, let it snow brother. BTW: Anyone have any wundermaps for Euro snow totals? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 I dreamed the 49ers won and the Euro showed a Christmas snowstorm and my dream came true! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 EC is interesting. Good that the GFS doesn't have it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 EC is interesting. Good that the GFS doesn't have it. probably, blind leading the blind the fact that the Euro is jumping around shouldn't give anyone any confidence beyond its 12 hour cycle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 GFS has totally changed its solution for the 23-26th period from yesterday. Euro, by comparison, has been fairly consistent. Euro ensembles seem to generally support the Op's solution as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 20, 2011 Author Share Posted December 20, 2011 we need to step it up..the new England forum would never go 2 hours without a post in their main storm thread. You have to believe people! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 we need to step it up..the new England forum would never go 2 hours without a post in their main storm thread. You have to believe people! no wonder you're never satisfied......it's not a competition Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 I'm pleasantly shocked Euro gives mby several inches of snow Christmas morning yet I believe I have better odds of seeing Santa Claus come down my chimney please don't suck me in Euro, please... We're toast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 We're toast Even the euro doesn't have the surface temps below freezing as far as I can tell from the Wundermap site. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 I dreamed the 49ers won and the Euro showed a Christmas snowstorm and my dream came true! Now that the Steelers lost i will be happy with a dusting Christmas morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Even the euro doesn't have the surface temps below freezing as far as I can tell from the Wundermap site. JB says we are getting snow, who are you to argue . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 I didn't really look at the euro too much but the 0z gfs is hanging onto the idea of a low driving up to our n & w before popping a low off the coast. I don't care what the rest of the model shows because I already know how that story ends around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Even the euro doesn't have the surface temps below freezing as far as I can tell from the Wundermap site. Screw this winter. Why the hell couldn't I be normal and not care about frozen water falling from the sky. Who does that? I look at normal people and wish I could be like them....couldn't care less if it rains, snows...a hurricane hits, etc. Out of all the hobbies in the world, this one picks me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Even the euro doesn't have the surface temps below freezing as far as I can tell from the Wundermap site. Yes. During the time the Wunderground maps show snow accumulating, it has surface temps in the 0-4C range. 850s are -2C or colder for folks north of DC and 0--2C for folks south of DC. Dewpoint 0C line goes from along I-95 to a Martinsburg WV-York PA line during the snow. The 850 low passes southeast of DC with the center going over a point north of Salisbury (just one baggy contour on the Wunderground maps that's pretty broad, but the center's there). The odd thing is that the Euro has southerly winds on the north side of the 850 low and has temps warming aloft as the storm passes. Not sure I get that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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