Ian Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 850 temps look okay but the surface is scorching per euro probably partly because the low is much weaker Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 IIRC, Euro's surface temps have run warm in the last few larger storms we've had. On the flip side, NAM has been cold. I'd take wraparound flurries/snow showers on Christmas day in a heartbeat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 I wouldnt panic too much 6-7 days out no panic.. i know the chances around here are slim to none to begin with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 IIRC, Euro's surface temps have run warm in the last few larger storms we've had. On the flip side, NAM has been cold. I'd take wraparound flurries/snow showers on Christmas day in a heartbeat. it has but at 0z there was a rapidly deepening 1004mb low off de and this one there is a big broad 1016 low in the same area. the air mass leading into it is uber marginal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 nothing can beat what we endured last Christmas Day + 1 not again I'll enjoy the day and time with family and work off the assumption there's no need to run to the window to see anything Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 it has but at 0z there was a rapidly deepening 1004mb low off de and this one there is a big broad 1016 low in the same area. the air mass leading into it is uber marginal. if anyone up and down the coast reasonably thinks that kind of setup will work this year 5 days+ out, well....OK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 if anyone up and down the coast reasonably thinks that kind of setup will work this year 5 days+ out, well....OK i dont think anyone but weenies are going there. the sne mets all say it's not going to happen or they need a lot of luck. it's considerably easier to get snow in a bad pattern up north tho. either way down here you never want to bank on a northern stream storm till you see it on radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 i dont think anyone but weenies are going there. the sne mets all say it's not going to happen or they need a lot of luck. it's considerably easier to get snow in a bad pattern up north tho. either way down here you never want to bank on a northern stream storm till you see it on radar. yeah, I wish I had learned that fact 40 years ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SNO Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 I would not spend too much time tracking this one...unless your in the New England forum. MA=Mostly Aqua Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Decent cold push for 36-48 hours after the Xmas storm on the Euro. Obviously the 23-26th period has potential to be pretty stormy with several shortwaves moving through with a slim, but nonzero chance that one of them gives us some snow. I'd take that over 55F and sunny any day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 I would not spend too much time tracking this one...unless your in the New England forum. MA=Mostly Aqua I'm somewhat confused over the differences between the xmas system and the southern slider on the 26th. The euro simply merges these two energies? The euro also supposedly brings the PV down afterwards, bringing in some arctic air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 LWX leaving the door open for Christmas eve... .SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 50 PERCENT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 idk- with the systems being so close together, it's hard to see anything as being accurate for the second system. Not saying that I expect much because I don't but the first system could help push down some colder air for the second low. I've been thinking about this small window for so long now that maybe I can will it to snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 The weenie meltdowns on this one are gonna be hilarious... especially if it occurs on the 26th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Wxrisk.com I am very tentative about this event. I am not sure the 2nd Low will be this strong. Also.... this is a northeast US event... from Philly Northward. For MD DE WVA VA even the 2nd event is a light rain event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 The chances of either the GFS or the Euro being right within plus/minus 7 degrees, and plus/minus 0.5" of precip one week in advance cannot be very high. Anyone want to post the 18z temp and previous 6 hour precip totals for IAD for next Monday from both models? We can run a little experiment. Edit: The GFS for KIAD on Monday, Dec. 26 at 18z is a temp of 38 degrees and 0 precip in the prior 3 hours. If someone posts the EC, I'll list it here as well. We'll see how both models do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Wxrisk.com I am very tentative about this event. I am not sure the 2nd Low will be this strong. Also.... this is a northeast US event... from Philly Northward. For MD DE WVA VA even the 2nd event is a light rain event. Well, this could be big ........... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Wxrisk.com I am very tentative about this event. I am not sure the 2nd Low will be this strong. Also.... this is a northeast US event... from Philly Northward. For MD DE WVA VA even the 2nd event is a light rain event. Oh all of a sudden you pull out his forecast when you agree with it . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Wxrisk.com I am very tentative about this event. I am not sure the 2nd Low will be this strong. Also.... this is a northeast US event... from Philly Northward. For MD DE WVA VA even the 2nd event is a light rain event. I suddenly like our chances now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 gotta' admit, this is not acting like your typical dry NINA around here by any stretch if/when things change up toward the Pole, we'll have something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 I suddenly like our chances now. Should I start thinking of doing a CWg post on the storm or should I wait until JB gets excited? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 I suddenly like our chances now. he's done pretty well this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Should I start thinking of doing a CWg post on the storm or should I wait until JB gets excited? Check with JB first Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Should I start thinking of doing a CWg post on the storm or should I wait until JB gets excited? get started.. we need some none hype hype since it's christmas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 get started.. we need some none hype hype since it's christmas If Jason asks, I'll do one. The probability is probalby up to climo, maybe a tad higher which still is pretty low. I'd certainly bet against snow. Otherwise, If the old JB barks, then I'll write something. the only met that seems bullish is the new JB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 19, 2011 Author Share Posted December 19, 2011 Wes, JMA looks good. Mention that in your column Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 I just saw the euro @ D10. No cold air anywhere but what up with the closed low off the SC coast? I'll be in NYC for new years weekend. Maybe I can cash in on tourist snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 I just saw the euro @ D10. No cold air anywhere but what up with the closed low off the SC coast? I'll be in NYC for new years weekend. Maybe I can cash in on tourist snow. I'm sure it's money. Check out the Euro 10 day forecast for tomorrow morning and compare it to today's forecast for tomorrow morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 ensemble mean looks a bit better late xmas eve early xmas.. at least for nw burbs 850wise. mostly just faster than op. nothing really exciting but something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 19, 2011 Author Share Posted December 19, 2011 ensemble mean looks a bit better late xmas eve early xmas.. at least for nw burbs 850wise. mostly just faster than op. nothing really exciting but something. is it still a weak low that cranks well north of us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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