yoda Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 I thought maybe at 87-90 with that 1030s H moving E as the precip moves in... but guess not Friday morning looks ugly.. heavy heavy rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 http://www.erh.noaa....e_christmas.php Says 16% for DC. 21% in Baltimore. But I stand by 15-25% when including most of the suburbs. they're mixing stats to get those numbers.. but it's a stupid argument. if you go either or (official is 1"+ on ground at 7a) it's like 10% in DC and southeast and probably double in the nw suburbs. either way i doubt wes was implying there is a 15-25% chance of a white xmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Here's NOAA's probability map for having snow on the ground on Christmas: Pretty sure DC is at 5% DCA is 9% thru history. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 they're mixing stats to get those numbers.. but it's a stupid argument. if you go either or (official is 1"+ on ground at 7a) it's like 10% in DC and southeast and probably double in the nw suburbs. either way i doubt wes was implying there is a 15-25% chance of a white xmas. Well anyway...I'd put our odds at 5-20% across the region right now. 20% for places like Trixie's hood or PSUHoffman's. 5% for you and Wes and folks to the south. Maybe 10% IMBY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 If that HP can hang over NY/NE a bit longer on Christmas eve, we could set up a light sleet/FZRA event. As is, the HP retreats before the precip arrives and we get...drumroll please...cold rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 If that HP can hang over NY/NE a bit longer on Christmas eve, we could set up a light sleet/FZRA event. As is, the HP retreats before the precip arrives and we get...drumroll please...cold rain. If we only had some blocking... looks like everyone is going to be a nice 40 and rain... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 12Z GFS= Warm and wet through Christmas eve, then cold and dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 hr 168 has snow into nortern nc, looks to be going OTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 my hood at Christmas is CT. not if the GFS is right same as here....rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 GFS still has the 26th storm and has in a similar spot to 6z. Slides it off the SE coast, keeping the real precip out of our area. The s/w keeps a positive tilt too far east, we need it to go neutral just east of the MS River to get it closer to the coast. I'm ok with this solution 6-7 days out. P.S. Given the lack of blocking and fickle cold air sources, we DON'T want a wound-up coast-hugging Nor'easter. The best solution to maximize snow for us is probably something that does slide off the coast, but does so farther north and gets 0.3-0.6" of liquid back our way before doing so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 GFS still has the 26th storm and has in a similar spot to 6z. Slides it off the SE coast, keeping the real precip out of our area. The s/w keeps a positive tilt too far east, we need it to go neutral just east of the MS River to get it closer to the coast. I'm ok with this solution 6-7 days out. P.S. Given the lack of blocking and fickle cold air sources, we DON'T want a wound-up coast-hugging Nor'easter. The best solution to maximize snow for us is probably something that does slide off the coast, but does so farther north and gets 0.3-0.6" of liquid back our way before doing so. In this situation (a la a La Nina), things have the tendency to trend northward, so with that in mind, I am also okay with the solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Cross your fingers again to get some accumulating snow out of one of these two systems, because if the GFS is right in the long range, it's going to be awhile before we even get a sniff of a chance again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Cross your fingers again to get some accumulating snow out of one of these two systems, because if the GFS is right in the long range, it's going to be awhile before we even get a sniff of a chance again. rest assured that part of the GFS run will be correct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Cross your fingers again to get some accumulating snow out of one of these two systems, because if the GFS is right in the long range, it's going to be awhile before we even get a sniff of a chance again. Can we fast forward to February? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 rest assured that part of the GFS run will be correct When the GFS shows cold and snow it's always wrong. When it shows warmth, it's always right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 12z GFS ensemble mean is a little more interesting for the 23rd. Keeps a high over southern Ontario and doesn't drive a piece of the surface low up into the Lakes. Basically just takes a low off the VA capes. Still gives us all rain, but this is certainly closer to what it would take for us to get some frozen precip out of this. Any low driving up into the Midwest/Lakes = game over for us. The mean also throws more precip back our way on the 26th. Will have to see the individual members in a bit, but looks like at least some keep the low close enough for snow for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Steady rain for my 12-hour drive to Nashville on Friday. Yuck. was kinda hoping to catch some flakes driving down 81 into eastern TN. GFS says hells no. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Taken with a grain of salt of course, but the h5 pattern looks absolutely ugly in the new year -- 564 to 570 DM heights cruising through the LWX region in early January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 12z GFS ensemble mean is even worse (ff that's possible) in the Day 11-15 range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 12z GFS ensemble mean is even worse (ff that's possible) in the Day 11-15 range. Ring in the new years with 60s? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Eh...it doesn't scream super-warmth as the SE ridge is beat down. Just a total Pac jet firehose pattern. Probably consistently 5-10F above normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Ring in the new years with 60s? I'll take warm rain over cold rain any day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Definitely a lot of spread on the individual ensembles, particularly for the 24th. Almost all the members have a very similar solution on the 23rd with the wave sliding off the VA capes giving us a chilly rain, biggest difference is timing. But the 24th, only 2 ensemble members (plus the Op) have a storm, one of which keeps all the energy on the coast and probably gives us snow. Most of the members have something for the 26th, with a lot of play in the details. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Definitely a lot of spread on the individual ensembles, particularly for the 24th. Almost all the members have a very similar solution on the 23rd with the wave sliding off the VA capes giving us a chilly rain, biggest difference is timing. But the 24th, only 2 ensemble members (plus the Op) have a storm, one of which keeps all the energy on the coast and probably gives us snow. Most of the members have something for the 26th, with a lot of play in the details. I am expecting a chily rain for the first system on the 23rd. How is the 26th one? Lots of model spread? I Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 the euro looks worse than 0z.. xmas low doesnt get going till delmarva.. 144 has nice dc precip hole. maybe some snow to end but we know how that goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 12z euro hr 144 12z 25th has a weak area of low pressure on the coast 0c runs iad to roa with some precip around hr 150 has a 1008 low well east of nj. precip wrapped back into central va 0c near ric. nothing much though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 19, 2011 Author Share Posted December 19, 2011 the euro looks worse than 0z.. xmas low doesnt get going till delmarva.. 144 has nice dc precip hole. maybe some snow to end but we know how that goes. 850 temps look okay but the surface is scorching per euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 went from 1"+ qpf dca up 95 to about 1/4" in same area around here. still about 4-6" for me in ct--i'll send pics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 19, 2011 Author Share Posted December 19, 2011 congrats boston:( i really hate New Englanders--even in crappy patterns they get snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 19, 2011 Author Share Posted December 19, 2011 went from 1"+ qpf dca up 95 to about 1/4" in same area around here. still about 4-6" for me in ct--i'll send pics. I wouldnt panic too much 6-7 days out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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