Ian Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 wrong forum might be the only snow i see this winter... hard not to go with the euro tho --enjoy yer rain it's the only rain youve got (for that day) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 My call: 50% chance of severe in DC on Christmas. Prove me wrong on the 26th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 I'd be putting more hopes in the 26th storm than the 24th. The 24th will (hopefully) set the stage for the 26th storm. As for Justin's call...he's really trying to become the new JB. He's got the initials working for him, thinks global warming's a hoax and always goes balls out for snow forecasts... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Wow, with a posative nao the timing and track have to be perfect. Look at how from run to run, the models are swapping out solutions. I'm with Matt, I'll be watching but right now am not that excited about our chances. Now let me say this before all the Berk roadies come in...I like the guy...went on his radio show that he had with Tony Pann and filled in...but Justin...50%? with the way the models have been flipping around in THIS pattern? Anyway, I'm on the Matt Jet Ski. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 I'd be putting more hopes in the 26th storm than the 24th. The 24th will (hopefully) set the stage for the 26th storm. As for Justin's call...he's really trying to become the new JB. He's got the initials working for him, thinks global warming's a hoax and always goes balls out for snow forecasts... There's a 50% DC/Balt will see daylight on the 25th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 There's a 50% DC/Balt will see daylight on the 25th. I was ok with some of the model outputs from a few days ago showing rain on Christmas eve or the 23rd and then a pretty darn cold day on Christmas. But, with all "cold" shots 10 days out so far, things look much closer to seasonable when we get closer to game time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 When the 00Z GFS shows snow in Houston, you know something is wrong... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CranberryWX Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 We're heading north to Western PA and NE Ohio for the Christmas weekend. I like my chances there better than here for some flakes. The trip home may be dicey. Something to track at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 might be the only snow i see this winter... hard not to go with the euro tho --enjoy yer rain it's the only rain youve got (for that day) the Euro.....at Day 5+?? it ain't been that good this year for anyone on the east coast at that range it'll change plenty over the next 5 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 I know it's the NAM at the end of its range, but just look how that SE ridge starts to expand at the end of the 12Z run today http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Model&MainPage=indexℑ=&page=Param&cycle=12%2F19%2F2011+12UTC&rname=UPPER+AIR+PARMS&pname=500_vort_ht&pdesc=&model=NAM&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=Loop+All&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Now let me say this before all the Berk roadies come in...I like the guy...went on his radio show that he had with Tony Pann and filled in...but Justin...50%? with the way the models have been flipping around in THIS pattern? Anyway, I'm on the Matt Jet Ski. Just be sure your wearing a wet suit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 the Euro.....at Day 5+?? it ain't been that good this year for anyone on the east coast at that range it'll change plenty over the next 5 days lol, really? It's expanding/contracting every other frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 I know it's the NAM at the end of its range, but just look how that SE ridge starts to expand at the end of the 12Z run today http://mag.ncep.noaa...el=&imageSize=M Probably in part because the NAM has the trough deeper out west. Much deeper than the GFS. Deeper trough pumps the ridge out ahead of it. Amazing that with a 1034 HP over Lake Superior the surface freezing line is basically into Canada Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 As long as we are putting in Christmas wishes, I would like a strong storm, cold, plenty of snow, that begins about 4 PM on the 26th. I don't really care about what happens on the 24th or 25th. I won't be here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Probably in part because the NAM has the trough deeper out west. Much deeper than the GFS. Deeper trough pumps the ridge out ahead of it. Amazing that with a 1034 HP over Lake Superior the surface freezing line is basically into Canada the winter of 11/12 so far for this weenie, until I see some real changes in Canada/NP, and I "think" that will happen in JAN, I'm figuring "what we've seen is what we'll get" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 the Euro.....at Day 5+?? it ain't been that good this year for anyone on the east coast at that range it'll change plenty over the next 5 days It's been pretty steady with this one for a few runs. And its way better than the GFS at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 It's been pretty steady with this one for a few runs. And its way better than the GFS at this range. But it still looks too warm for snow to me. Nice track, reminds me of the infamous tracker bus storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 I'm not feeling it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 But it still looks too warm for snow to me. Nice track, reminds me of the infamous tracker bus storm. Don't make me ban you Wes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 But it still looks too warm for snow to me. Nice track, reminds me of the infamous tracker bus storm. doesnt look that great for anyone around here.. mtns winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 It's been pretty steady with this one for a few runs. And its way better than the GFS at this range. hate to pull this one out of the bag of tricks, but the "seasonal trend" says rain for most up and down the caost maybe this one will be different, and NE has a way of pulling it out of their butts, but my guess is that the Euro will warm it up as time goes on of course, I hope I'm wrong and this one bucks the trend, but I don't see anything in the conus at this time to suggest it will be different Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Don't make me ban you Wes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 The 12z GFS will be rockin'. Book it. Well one can hope... But anyway, any snow would be nice... I will take 1-2" of snow to rain if it must be that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 hate to pull this one out of the bag of tricks, but the "seasonal trend" says rain for most up and down the caost maybe this one will be different, and NE has a way of pulling it out of their butts, but my guess is that the Euro will warm it up as time goes on of course, I hope I'm wrong and this one bucks the trend, but I don't see anything in the conus at this time to suggest it will be different i wouldnt doubt it for now. the high racing east is not really a good thing. im not saying its right as is but its better than the gfs if the gfs is giving dc snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Don't make me ban you Wes. I'd substantially increase my donation to the board fund if you can successfully blackmail him for snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 I'd substantially increase my donation to the board fund if you can successfully blackmail him for snow As if what I say makes a difference. The probability of snow around xmas ahs probably risen to near climo. That's still really low but not completely no. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 As if what I say makes a difference. The probability of snow around xmas ahs probably risen to near climo. That's still really low but not completely no. If only. Actually, if only what JB (Joe or Justin) said made a difference. Climo for us is around 15-25%, I believe, depending on exactly where you are in our region. More than that for folks out in the WV mountains of course. I'd take those odds. Given the pattern, I'd be very happy with just seeing some frozen precip on Christmas eve or Christmas day even if the bulk is rain or it's a snow-to-rain event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 If only. Actually, if only what JB (Joe or Justin) said made a difference. Climo for us is around 15-25%, I believe, depending on exactly where you are in our region. More than that for folks out in the WV mountains of course. I'd take those odds. Given the pattern, I'd be very happy with just seeing some frozen precip on Christmas eve or Christmas day even if the bulk is rain or it's a snow-to-rain event. a little high.. as far as snow on ground goes. and i think wes is thinking lower (as far as snow flying goes). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 a little high.. as far as snow on ground goes. and i think wes is thinking lower (as far as snow flying goes). http://www.erh.noaa....e_christmas.php Says 16% for DC. 21% in Baltimore. But I stand by 15-25% when including most of the suburbs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Here's NOAA's probability map for having snow on the ground on Christmas: Pretty sure DC is at 5% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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