BristowWx Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 The surface temp in C when it's precipitating is around 40, probably too warm for snow and for sure too warm for accumulating snow. Plus, it's still on its own. I know but this season I will be thankful that it isn't going to be 60F on Xmas. If I may ask, on the 18z GFS 500mb 75hr chart, those two features in the north and south branch looking to collide had me excited thinking it would be good. Is that what we want to see only earlier and with more cold air? On that chart, Is that considered phasing? Thanks for your insight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 00z NAM interesting, holds back the s/w and at 84 a closed h5 reflection exists around the Mississippi River. Any met care to chime in? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 00z NAM interesting, holds back the s/w and at 84 a closed h5 reflection exists around the Mississippi River. Any met care to chime in? It's embedded in a neutral trough which is going negative way before it has even hit the Mississippi river. I would think that setup would argue for that feature to run up north and west of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 The Tuesday time frame is starting to look a bit interesting. The 00Z Euro and 00Z+06Z Nam (+06Z Extended Nam) are in pretty good agreement with both having a closed H5 low imbedded within a negative tilted trough at the Mississippi. This captures the surface low but with it being negatively tilted to early it brings it up just to the North and West of our area. Unlike the earlier runs of the GFS, which didn't have the trough capturing the surface low, the 06Z now has that occurring and with a neutral trough at the Mississippi it pulls the surface low to the South and East of our area. At this point the GFS is still just a bit to warm for anything meaningful though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 The rule of thumb is we want the trough to be neutrally tilted just east of the MS River and then go negative a few hundred miles farther east to be in a good position to go south of us or along the coast. Going neutral or a bit negative west of the MS River ==> cutter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 The rule of thumb is we want the trough to be neutrally tilted just east of the MS River and then go negative a few hundred miles farther east to be in a good position to go south of us or along the coast. Going neutral or a bit negative west of the MS River ==> cutter. That is basically why the Euro and the NAM take this feature to the north and west with them already being negative tilted at the Miss. The GFS looks as if it holds that neutral look a ways beyond the Mississippi thus driving it quite a bit farther to the south and east putting the Northern MA on the very fringe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 The Euro has a colder profile to the north of the storm then the GFS does. Now whether that is a function of its more north and west track allowing it to tap into the colder air more readily I am not sure, but if you look at the NAM it is very similar in evolution and track and yet it's warmer temp profile matches more so that of the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 The Euro has a colder profile to the north of the storm then the GFS does. Now whether that is a function of its more north and west track allowing it to tap into the colder air more readily I am not sure, but if you look at the NAM it is very similar in evolution and track and yet it's warmer temp profile matches more so that of the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 That's basically what they all show for the area at this time. Though the GFS might argue for some wet flakes mixed in for N Virginia in some of the heavier precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 Et Tu Brute? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 That's basically what they all show for the area at this time. Though the GFS might argue for some wet flakes mixed in for N Virginia in some of the heavier precip. I don't expect it to bring us snow Et Tu Brute? Yup. I'm embracing the torch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 I don't expect it to bring us snow Neither do I. But at least it does give us something to track in this dismal pattern that has some potential even though it is a long shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marked8 Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 This seems appropriate: What Ian said about no 30 degree highs in December for the first time really struck me as to how bad it has been. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 Neither do I. But at least it does give us something to track in this dismal pattern that has some potential even though it is a long shot. then why do you want to track something that is rain?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 then why do you want to track something that is rain?? I guess you missed the part of the comment about there being some potential with this though slim? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 then why do you want to track something that is rain?? Well after all this is a weather board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 Don't really need to track rain so far this winter. Just mark an x on every 3rd day of the calender and voila! Perfect forecast. Who needs models anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 I guess you missed the part of the comment about there being some potential with this though slim? No i didnt miss that part, i,m more realistic than you are.but go ahead and do your thing!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 Don't really need to track rain so far this winter. Just mark an x on every 3rd day of the calender and voila! Perfect forecast. Who needs models anyway. Excellent point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 smh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 I guess you missed the part of the comment about there being some potential with this though slim? You SN would fit better this winter if you changed it to showmetherain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 No i didnt miss that part, i,m more realistic than you are.but go ahead and do your thing!!!!! It's funny how tracking something on a weather board to see how it evolves in comparison to the models, no matter how remote the possibilities for snow, results in snarky comments from certain individuals. But hey, if that's your thing, have at it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 we will, thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 You SN would fit better this winter if you changed it to showmetherain Isn't that the truth. Though come Tuesday I might luck out and catch some on my way up to just north of Pittsburgh when I visit the in-laws. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 we will, thanks No problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 It's funny how tracking something on a weat board to see how it evolves in comparison to the models, no matter how remote the possibilities for snow, results in snarky comments from certain individuals. But hey, if that's your thing, have at it. Guess you didnt read bob chills comment, but that's okay.happy holidays!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 Hey, don't worry. Accuwx's Margusity says there's going to be about 2 feet of snow in the midatlantic in mid-February. Oh, and maybe some SN next weekend as well. Problem solved! http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/meteomadness/i-see-snow-possibilities-next-week/59428 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 Hey, don't worry. Accuwx's Margusity says there's going to be about 2 feet of snow in the midatlantic in mid-February. Oh, and maybe some SN next weekend as well. Problem solved! http://www.accuweath...next-week/59428 I just sent this link to the GFS...it apologized to all of us for spitting out the wrong data and is cooking up a different solution for next weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marked8 Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 Hey, don't worry. Accuwx's Margusity says there's going to be about 2 feet of snow in the midatlantic in mid-February. Oh, and maybe some SN next weekend as well. Problem solved! http://www.accuweath...next-week/59428 http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-dwLTXAGvG_I/TdGbZxp4sKI/AAAAAAAAHbI/py03MHdMqWM/s1600/DoubleFacePalm.jpg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 Hey, don't worry. Accuwx's Margusity says there's going to be about 2 feet of snow in the midatlantic in mid-February. Oh, and maybe some SN next weekend as well. Problem solved! http://www.accuweath...next-week/59428 Good luck with the forecast, I'd certainly bet against anywhere around here seeing accumulating snow (or any snow) before the new year. I'd also bet against the big daddy storm since la nina's rarely produce major snowstorms in the mid atlantic but then maybe he is talking about new england. I do think we'll see snow in Jan and Feb but think reaching for a big daddy storm is well reaching. I guess it is a no lose forecast. If you miss it, no one will remember since it's so far out and if you hit it, you can trumpet the call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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