H2O Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 no I did not mean to say you were calling for snow, I picked you quote by accident. I meant Ji. I was just responding to Ji remark that it was back again. My apologies. No prob. We're cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 GFS brings it back! Look at the surrface temps, they are not back. Looks like a chilly rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Look at the surrface temps, they are not back. Looks like a chilly rain. Probably getting too much into the weeds at this point, but I'd say the soundings support snow from the 6z GFS. Temps is at or below freezing above 950mb and is only 2.2C at the surface for BWI. Situation for IAD and DCA are similar. There's even a bit of dry air in the lowest 500m-1000m of the column, so that above freezing temp would probably wet-bulb down closer to freezing. Anyway...at least for the big cities and points north, I'd say 6z GFS is snow event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Probably getting too much into the weeds at this point, but I'd say the soundings support snow from the 6z GFS. Temps is at or below freezing above 950mb and is only 2.2C at the surface for BWI. Situation for IAD and DCA are similar. There's even a bit of dry air in the lowest 500m-1000m of the column, so that above freezing temp would probably wet-bulb down closer to freezing. Anyway...at least for the big cities and points north, I'd say 6z GFS is snow event. Probably now that I've looked at more than the zero line on the boundary layer progs but with light precip it should be light with the crappy surface look it would only be conversational snow. Still if I were a betting man, I'd bet against it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 still got a high moving offshore to the north and a crap storm on the gfs.. good luck with a snow event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Yahoo/Good Morning America has an article about a Nor'easter for Christmas http://gma.yahoo.com...-091355298.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Yahoo/Good Morning America has an article about a Nor'easter for Christmas http://gma.yahoo.com...-091355298.html The first sentence alone was enough to make me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 it would only be conversational snow. Around here, the chance of a flake in February is "conversational snow".... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Probably now that I've looked at more than the zero line on the boundary layer progs but with light precip it should be light with the crappy surface look it would only be conversational snow. Still if I were a betting man, I'd bet against it. Any snow is good snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 balto sunpapers has cold rain for xmas day. Who is he? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 FWIW, NAM is much stronger with the southern stream s/w for the Xmas storm than the 6z GFS, has a two contour closed low at 500mb. Also hanging it back farther west, so it would be a slower solution. Weaker with the northern stream s/w kicker as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Yahoo/Good Morning America has an article about a Nor'easter for Christmas http://gma.yahoo.com...-091355298.html Have any other outlets started trumpeting a storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 FWIW, NAM is much stronger with the southern stream s/w for the Xmas storm than the 6z GFS, has a two contour closed low at 500mb. Also hanging it back farther west, so it would be a slower solution. Weaker with the northern stream s/w kicker as well. Maybe we get super lucky and that 1040 H in NW CO at hr 84 comes to help... jk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Have any other outlets started trumpeting a storm? My local news has mentioned it, but nothing too serious, just that they were watching it. I haven't heard/seen anything else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWC Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 The weather channel mentioned it last night depends on track of the storm off the coast further out to sea the better the chance for snow closer to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 6z GFS 108 panel soundings DCA IAD MRB are these snow soundings?? I do not know how to read them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 This should help mdsnowlover -- http://www.atmos.millersville.edu/~lead/SkewT_HowTo.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Have any other outlets started trumpeting a storm? JBerk is still calling for possible snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Will anyone be surprised if Lucy puts the football back down with today's 12z runs? And does anyone think that the setup on the NAM would lead to a storm here about 24 hours later? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 JBerk is still calling for possible snow atmospheric memory.. seems to me that would be a bad thing this yr but eh what do i know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Will anyone be surprised if Lucy puts the football back down with today's 12z runs? And does anyone think that the setup on the NAM would lead to a storm here about 24 hours later? I think it would probably give a sheared look as the northern stream remains really strong and typically the precip only get north to the confluence which is south of us. That could change but the northern stream shortwave is still coming east to suppress things. I guess I'm saying I think it supports a euro type look but extrapolating forward is always chancy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 From JB it looks like him and JI love the JMA: "But look folks the theory is simple here. I am not going to change a pattern recognition idea based on model waffling. In fact I have the model that would make the snow. The 72 hour JMA has a weaker northern branch that the GFS is jumping on over the lakes and is most certainly going to phase the system coming into the northern rockies with the trough over the southwest. So this is not over by any means" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Will anyone be surprised if Lucy puts the football back down with today's 12z runs? And does anyone think that the setup on the NAM would lead to a storm here about 24 hours later? I think the NAM would certainly produce a storm, but I won't even try to guess what it would do with it. We're still 48 hours out from the NAM's wheelhouse. JB says the JMA looks good BTW...GGEM went from having a big rainstorm yesterday at 12z to having NOTHING at 0z. Zip nada nichts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 with JB and the JMA on board, looks like I should be following this much closer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 I think it would probably give a sheared look as the northern stream remains really strong and typically the precip only get north to the confluence which is south of us. That could change but the northern stream shortwave is still coming east to suppress things. I guess I'm saying I think it supports a euro type look but extrapolating forward is always chancy. When I looked at the loop of the H5, it looks to me as though that last sw in the northern stream is actually starting to lift to the north as it nears Lake Superior and the heights in the southeast seem to be responding to that. The H7 movement seems to be to the northeast in the last frames of its loop as well. Oh well, whatever the case, I won't be here so I don't really care that much. The fact that I wouldn't get to see it if it did snow makes me think the chances for snow are better than they would normally be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 the nam would obviously be a crippling blizzard if extrapolated and extrapolated nam is usually right. book it weenies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 the nam would obviously be a crippling blizzard if extrapolated and extrapolated nam is usually right. book it weenies. Don't be jealous because we will get 2 feet while you in CT will get a driving rainstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 I just expraptolated the 42 hour gfs panel and got rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 the nam would obviously be a crippling blizzard if extrapolated and extrapolated nam is usually right. book it weenies. What time is your flight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 I just expraptolated the 42 hour gfs panel and got rain. Thurs night -- heavy heavy rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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