usedtobe Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 if i had to forecast just based on the crude maps of the euro and the run was day 1-2, I would call for up to an inch of snow/sleet in the cities for 2-4 hours at 33-35 degrees and then to rain....I think that would accumulate on the grass/decks/cars if we got a decent rate given it is overnight and the sun isnt a factor anyway...DCA might get a 0.3"...I think that is probably the type of event we are looking at if it even happens This is a crappy pattern in so many ways. The lack of blocking makes timing various features tougher than normal as shortwaves just zip along in the flow. That's why when you look at the GEFS ensemble members they are in much more disarray than is typical for that time range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 I wasn't mad because you said it was going to rain. And, you're right, people shouldn't attack you because you say it's going to rain. But, you should have to defend yourself when you say it's going to rain. Like it or not, your reputation is at play. You (usually) provide sensible analysis and write for CWG, so, yeh, I do expect a bit more from you than "it's gonna rain"... not every time, but > 50%. What drives me insane is that lately the conversations are like this: Rinse. Repeat. Ad nauseam. fair enough tho i think i've said why i think it will rain if you read the posts. perhaps not all in one post--so i should work on condensing my thoughts. sometimes it's just lack of time at any given moment. i tend to be a hit and run poster. but i did say that it's day 5 and i think the model will trend warmer if it trends and that the high exiting the coast already as modeled precip is arriving is not great. but most importantly it's day 5 and we go warm from there 9 out of 10 times. sure that's sort of a simplistic method in itself but it'll still work more often than not--plus the other factors of course, not to be dismissed is the seasonal trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 it's sad What's really sad is this is the last shot for this december. Things are going to get worse before they get better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 What's really sad is this is the last shot for this december. Things are going to get worse before they get better. we need october to come back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 20, 2011 Author Share Posted December 20, 2011 hard to believe all this discussion about specifics based on one model run on Tuesday. All we need to know right now is that there may be a storm for Christmas and its interesting enough to track....there is going to be daily fluctuation in where the 850 0 line in...the exact placement of high pressure when the storm comes,etc... We still havent seen the same solution in multiple runs...when we start seeing the model lock into a solution on a more consistent basis..then we can cry about the specifics and declare the storm a bust. Ian...its not hard to be wrong when predicting no snow in DC...my dad is right 9 out of 10 times and he dosent even follow weather Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 ji is there any way we can trade you for your dad? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 hard to believe all this discussion about specifics based on one model run on Tuesday. You're the one who started it this morning by saying it was unacceptable to have such large time gaps between posting when there was a storm to track. You implied that SNE > MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 hard to believe all this discussion about specifics based on one model run on Tuesday. All we need to know right now is that there may be a storm for Christmas and its interesting enough to track....there is going to be daily fluctuation in where the 850 0 line in...the exact placement of high pressure when the storm comes,etc... We still havent seen the same solution in multiple runs...when we start seeing the model lock into a solution on a more consistent basis..then we can cry about the specifics and declare the storm a bust. Ian...its not hard to be wrong when predicting no snow in DC...my dad is right 9 out of 10 times and he dosent even follow weather finally the voice of reason Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 ji is there any way we can trade you for your dad? That would be like the Pau Gasol trade a few years back way to lopsided for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 euro ens mean is warm.. maybe some snow in n md to start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 20, 2011 Author Share Posted December 20, 2011 i declared winter over in November Ian..way before you did so take that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 20, 2011 Author Share Posted December 20, 2011 euro ens mean is warm.. maybe some snow in n md to start. there is probably one member thats extremely warm and its skewing the mean. Toss it out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 i declared winter over in November Ian..way before you did so take that i love you -- let's not fight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 there is probably one member thats extremely warm and its skewing the mean. Toss it out better hope so. at 120 the op has the 850 line in c va and the ens mean has it in s pa. tho i think it's been running faster than the op a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 better hope so. at 120 the op has the 850 line in c va and the ens mean has it in s pa. tho i think it's been running faster than the op a bit. i'd say it's around 6 hrs faster than the op but still has the 0c 850 north of dc ('bout balt to northern loudoun) compared to c va on the op when factorign that in . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolai Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 this winter is horrible thank god i saw a few flakes on saturday night... no snowless december FTW (even in 2006 there were flurries on one day) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Maybe I'm just not smart enough to figure this out, but it seems that we view storms on the models with skepticism, but we view 10 day (and longer) forecasts that tell us it is going to get warm as likely. Oh well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Maybe I'm just not smart enough to figure this out, but it seems that we view storms on the models with skepticism, but we view 10 day (and longer) forecasts that tell us it is going to get warm as likely. Oh well. Probably because it usually works out that we will almost always get the warm, but not the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Maybe I'm just not smart enough to figure this out, but it seems that we view storms on the models with skepticism, but we view 10 day (and longer) forecasts that tell us it is going to get warm as likely. Oh well. Your own phrasing pretty much answers your own question- it's not about cold vs. warm. It's about figuring out individual storms within a pattern vs. figuring out a general pattern itself. Of course, the pattern is going to be much easier to forecast... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 18z NAM looks to continue the idea that Thursday night inrto Friday morning is going to be a washout.. 1-2" of rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC_WX Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 18z NAM looks to continue the idea that Thursday night inrto Friday morning is going to be a washout.. 1-2" of rain Awful wet this December Nina. Surely to be supplanted by cold and dry at some point in the future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Awful wet this December Nina. Surely to be supplanted by cold and dry at some point in the future. yep that will be out pattern change you watch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 84 hr 18z NAM (yeah, I know) looks EUROish... 850 0c line is in C VA with the -3c line from BWI to Leesburg and then to the SE of Charleston WV in a NE to SW fashion... the 0c 2m line is west of the Apps... 1033 H is north/northeast of NY state in Canada but is moving east. There is a s/w in NW MI and another one, albeit closed, in the TX panhandle. This is way different (well duh, of course it is Yoda!) than the 12z 78 hr h5 chart when you compare the 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 because models alone != forecasting there have been a couple of reasons other than the models to think the pattern would suck, la nina and the monsterously strong ao and nao, the latter two signals usually gives up easily without a fight. I pretty much wrote off Dec at the beginning of the month. The current model look in the extended range pretty much fits preconceived notions of what the pattern should look like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 20, 2011 Author Share Posted December 20, 2011 18z NAM looks to continue the idea that Thursday night inrto Friday morning is going to be a washout.. 1-2" of rain euro says not so much for the thursday rain event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Wes! conjure up some snow, *please*. I was speaking more to his question about why we won't place faith in backyard solutions of model runs 5 days out versus accepting and recognizing broad weather patterns based on a variety of inputs. I wish I could, maybe the 10% chance that we get snow based on the euro is correct. Otherwise, it looks grim into January. For you, the probabilities probably are higher being further west. The only flakes I've seen this year were in October, pretty sad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 I consider our WV winter to be off to a decent start: cold and we've seen flakes a few times this month. we'll be in CT for Christmas so will miss whatever may fall out our way. The 18Z GFS has trended pretty strongly towards the euro except quite a bit warmer. I think that may be the winner but it's still far enough away to say, ????? Though I'd bet for dc no snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 84 hr 18z NAM (yeah, I know) looks EUROish... 850 0c line is in C VA with the -3c line from BWI to Leesburg and then to the SE of Charleston WV in a NE to SW fashion... the 0c 2m line is west of the Apps... 1033 H is north/northeast of NY state in Canada but is moving east. There is a s/w in NW MI and another one, albeit closed, in the TX panhandle. This is way different (well duh, of course it is Yoda!) than the 12z 78 hr h5 chart when you compare the 2 the SE Ridge is a breathing, living creature on the NAM http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Model&MainPage=indexℑ=&page=Param&cycle=12%2F20%2F2011+18UTC&rname=UPPER+AIR+PARMS&pname=500_vort_ht&pdesc=&model=NAM&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=Loop+All&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 I think some may have misinterpreted my post. I am not saying we should put faith in storms modeled 5 days out. I'm only saying that I don't see how we put faith in modeled solutions and patterns 10+ days out. It would seem to me that it would be more difficult to model the pattern than a storm, one being global, the other being at least partially regionalized. Not trying to say that this is true, only trying to get someone to turn my "uninformed" notions into informed notions. Wes mentioned using the AO as a forecast tool for the longer range. Heck, the AO index was adjusted upward, not went upward, the index just somehow changed by nearly 2 SD since yesterday. How can that be a reliable tool to use? Again, just asking questions here. Obviously I would like the pattern to change. Although, as someone earlier mentioned, I'm just as worried that if it does, it will change to dry/cold. That's even worse in my view. Either way, if it were cold now, snowy now, and the pattern was forecast to be stable for the next month, continuing the very pattern that I want, I would still be highly skeptical of that. It's just hard for me to put confidence in solutions dealing with the 10+ day period when the most sophisticated, complex computer programs we have can't be very accurate even 5 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Where is the Euro getting the cold air from? I dont see any getting anywhere close to us. Even me out here in the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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