TUweathermanDD Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Whether or not they are right based on what the rest of the Euro run shows or whether they verifiy or not come 5 days from now... RIGHT FREAKING NOW they show snow falling on Christmas morning and accumulating a couple inches IN THE CITIES. What hour was it? Do you have one different then the ones on wunderground, I mean I know in 12 hrs we'll have something different. It doesn't freakin matter what the hell these models show now, for God's sake we have Ian getting messed with because he knows its likely inevitably going to rain. May the lord help us, good to know the current weather models have snow for the cities, in 12 hrs they might just show snow in Bermuda. Post a pic of the map, because I'm going to need to be alone with it later tonight when 00z might be a she-male blind date. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 I won't be here, so, yeah, I'd say the Euro map will be about what happens. Looks like it would be a really good snow over here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 heh. no.. carry on. i just dont think it's fair i have to defend my position because the euro weenie maps show such and such or because im going to be out of town. i'll spend the rest of my time reading the sne forum though if it will make others happy. whatever happens here will have no impact on me. sorry i said it would rain. sensible wx calls are fine and nothing in this pattern should lead us to think otherwise. Xmas only heightens hope. Blame Norman Rockwell and beautific scenery Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 What hour was it? Do you have one different then the ones on wunderground, I mean I know in 12 hrs we'll have something different. It doesn't freakin matter what the hell these models show now, for God's sake we have Ian getting messed with because he knows its likely inevitably going to rain. May the lord help us, good to know the current weather models have snow for the cities, in 12 hrs they might just show snow in Bermuda. Post a pic of the map, because I'm going to need to be alone with it later tonight when 00z might be a she-male blind date. Thanks. Too funny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Glad to see we're all getting alone. It's kinda funny that everyone is so snippy. Man, if this continues into late January, it's gonna be dangerous to even post in this forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 What hour was it? Do you have one different then the ones on wunderground, I mean I know in 12 hrs we'll have something different. It doesn't freakin matter what the hell these models show now, for God's sake we have Ian getting messed with because he knows its likely inevitably going to rain. May the lord help us, good to know the current weather models have snow for the cities, in 12 hrs they might just show snow in Bermuda. Post a pic of the map, because I'm going to need to be alone with it later tonight when 00z might be a she-male blind date. Thanks. Meltdown Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Not really good for the cities here, but N and W I'd say they're nice, so its close despite the expected trends. I think the important thing is the general idea that the Euro is advertising versus the GFS.....obviously the details will change substantially over the next 5 days, but if it is correct with the general idea then it is worth watching to see what happens on the front end.....especially given the timing of the start is 1-2 am.....front end changeover events are interesting to track and follow because it is very difficult to pinpoint exact precip types and timing of the changover in specific places, so predicting amounts is a lot of guesswork....this may be a case where the general idea is right, but the track keeps migrating north and west and nobody gets frozen....Ian is right that it is silly to get too specific at this range...even the general idea and timing can change quite a bit....but at least we are presented with a potential scenario of how to get frozen in this horrible pattern that isn't terribly unrealistic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Meltdown I ask the question yesterday of when it was going to happen. I think the best is yet to come. We still have a couple of famous posters that haven't chimed in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 I think the important thing is the general idea that the Euro is advertising versus the GFS.....obviously the details will change substantially over the next 5 days, but if it is correct with the general idea then it is worth watching to see what happens on the front end.....especially given the timing of the start is 1-2 am.....front end changeover events are interesting to track and follow because it is very difficult to pinpoint exact precip types and timing of the changover in specific places, so predicting amounts is a lot of guesswork....this may be a case where the general idea is right, but the track keeps migrating north and west and nobody gets frozen....Ian is right that it is silly to get too specific at this range...even the general idea and timing can change quite a bit....but at least we are presented with a potential scenario of how to get frozen in this horrible pattern that isn't terribly unrealistic Has the GFS become Dr. NO? BTW, I like your positive attitude. I think we have to have fun with it all. Can't change it, might as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 What hour was it? Do you have one different then the ones on wunderground, I mean I know in 12 hrs we'll have something different. It doesn't freakin matter what the hell these models show now, for God's sake we have Ian getting messed with because he knows its likely inevitably going to rain. May the lord help us, good to know the current weather models have snow for the cities, in 12 hrs they might just show snow in Bermuda. Post a pic of the map, because I'm going to need to be alone with it later tonight when 00z might be a she-male blind date. Thanks. Take a break, walk away, breathe. It's only the weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 For weenies keeping track, the 12z and 15z Saturday timesteps on Wunderground have snow IN THE CITIES. 9z isn't into the area yet and 18z has the edge of the snow on I-95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 sensible wx calls are fine and nothing in this pattern should lead us to think otherwise. Xmas only heightens hope. Blame Norman Rockwell and beautific scenery im sure it's partly me--i've been annoyed more often lately. but i give plenty of credit to people who know what they are talking about etc. i just dont think it's fair that when im negative it's always "because ian's always negative". probably because it pays off and there is often reason to be. i hope y'all get a front end thump.. i'm just not sure i can buy anything at this range. we've already had several instances this yr where folks were calling for snow accum in dc that never came close to happening and the pattern is not any better really here other than that we're deeper into winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 I don't think ma posters are freaking out at all right now. We've had tempered expectations since t-day. The euro is a reasonable solution and so is the gfs. Heck, snow on Christmas? Never thought it would be a possibility until yesterday really. Even if it doesn't snow, christmas day is still a special one. I agree with zwts on the timing. IF the euro is close to right, 1-2am is a great time to get things started in a marginal changeover scenario. Especially if you want to see snow on the ground at sunrise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 For weenies keeping track, the 12z and 15z Saturday timesteps on Wunderground have snow IN THE CITIES. 9z isn't into the area yet and 18z has the edge of the snow on I-95. Sounds like a 6 hr time period of some snow... sounds good. For now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Has the GFS become Dr. NO? BTW, I like your positive attitude. I think we have to have fun with it all. Can't change it, might as well. I think it is a bad idea to only focus on moderate/big events with great synoptic setups in favorable patterns....because we may only get 8-10" the entire winter and we might have to slop our way there, especially where I live....Ian is right about specifics...but I just like that the Euro is showing a way to get frozen in this pattern...1032 highs can do some damage....there might be more low level cold than advertised, especially out by you....I don't think a single person here doesnt realize that this may never materialize or it may go OTS or it may be 99% driving rain.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 I think the important thing is the general idea that the Euro is advertising versus the GFS.....obviously the details will change substantially over the next 5 days, but if it is correct with the general idea then it is worth watching to see what happens on the front end.....especially given the timing of the start is 1-2 am.....front end changeover events are interesting to track and follow because it is very difficult to pinpoint exact precip types and timing of the changover in specific places, so predicting amounts is a lot of guesswork....this may be a case where the general idea is right, but the track keeps migrating north and west and nobody gets frozen....Ian is right that it is silly to get too specific at this range...even the general idea and timing can change quite a bit....but at least we are presented with a potential scenario of how to get frozen in this horrible pattern that isn't terribly unrealistic See if you told me that, I'd be perfectly happy with it. What do I expect at this point? Rain is probably the game plan, with a series of systems trending north and nw this year so far and considering the Nina/bad pattern its in, whats to stop the same thing from happening again. Even if atmospheric memory isn't a factor at all, the pattern is just lousy. When were 120 hours out, things are changing every 6 hours ,especially in this situation, so keeping that in mind, I think minute details are indeed preposterous. We have nothing to hold that high in place, with no blocking up in Canada, therefore the warm air can flood in to the area. There is indeed front end snow modeled on this run for the cities, and I'd take it in a heartbeat, but why excite myself when I know its going to change. The gfs doesn't even have a storm right now, and despite the fact that its probably wrong, we can never rule out a solution at this stage of the game because things have just been so unpredictable. The possibility that the high hangs around long enough to prevent mainly rain here is a low chance outcome, and besides that the trend of the winter has been to have our BL torch even in decent 850's. I mean the precip rates would be decent as with what you said earlier its juicy and that can help to dynamically cool the column, but honestly, with as strong of WAA as I saw on the euro, even a typical warm bias removed would still have ML thicknesses in a bit of an unfavorable level. The options are still on the table, in no way am I melting down, I know many options are on the table, but as was said the writing is somewhat on the wall, and we know what the higher probability outcome is. Climo is a bit more favorable now, but with the cold air being locked off to the north, its hard to have a low salvage that cold air source. One positive I guess is that the surface temps are actually not super warm this time compared to usual where they are the problem with decent 850's. We have something to track, and its on Christmas, I'm happy as of now. If the front end thump has me waking up to a couple inches of snow, theres nothing that compares. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 I think it is a bad idea to only focus on moderate/big events with great synoptic setups in favorable patterns....because we may only get 8-10" the entire winter and we might have to slop our way there, especially where I live....Ian is right about specifics...but I just like that the Euro is showing a way to get frozen in this pattern...1032 highs can do some damage....there might be more low level cold than advertised, especially out by you....I don't think a single person here doesnt realize that this may never materialize or it may go OTS or it may be 99% driving rain.... you're right but the high is already moving off the coast of maine as the precip starts. it won't take much to screw it up. but it's better than a cutter for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 If we don't all kill each other by New Years, I will be surprised. Ian, don't go. Those of us who know you, know that you are not being Mr. Negative. You are being realistic. It doesn't matter if you are going to be here or not during the time period, you should be able to post here without being ragged on (no offense, Matt). You call it how you see it, regardless if it is the solution we want or not. For the weenies, CHILL OUT. Good grief, it is only December 20th. I realize that this season so far has been terrible, but if you've been around here long enough you know our best snows are Jan/Feb. The pattern sucks, we all know it. There is no need to go off the deep end because a model 5 days out may or may not show snow for the cities. Just be thankful the Euro is still showing a storm at all. Now can we all just take a deep breath and stop fighting with each other? It's really silly and counterproductive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 I think it is a bad idea to only focus on moderate/big events with great synoptic setups in favorable patterns....because we may only get 8-10" the entire winter and we might have to slop our way there, especially where I live....Ian is right about specifics...but I just like that the Euro is showing a way to get frozen in this pattern...1032 highs can do some damage....there might be more low level cold than advertised, especially out by you....I don't think a single person here doesnt realize that this may never materialize or it may go OTS or it may be 99% driving rain.... What I was saying was that usually its the GFS teasing us with these snow scenarios, but not this time. It has nothing on the same day that the EC is showing a pretty good little snow event. Seems like they have switched roles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 you're right but the high is already moving off the coast of maine as the precip starts. it won't take much to screw it up. but it's better than a cutter for sure. getting a perfect track and strength is a 100-1 longshot......this is a way to get snow...having precip well in front of the system...sometimes these start as snow or sleet or pellets and it changes to driving rain in 17 minutes.....I just like a model showing a way to get snow that isn't completely far fetched... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 I think it is a bad idea to only focus on moderate/big events with great synoptic setups in favorable patterns.... Absolutely, because our almighty climo says that most of our snow outside the once every 5-10 year blockbuster winters comes in small events in marginal setups in unfavorable patterns. Last year we were nickel and dimed to death even when we had cold air around. The one big storm we had was extremely marginal and only was all snow because of the sick UVVs and cold air aloft producing excellent crystal growth. Surface temps were still warm. If people don't want to pay attention to marginal/borderline events, then I suggest they get a new hobby until the next 09-10/02-03/95-96 rolls around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SNO Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 My focus continues to be the January 24th-26th 2012 time period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 What I was saying was that usually its the GFS teasing us with these snow scenarios, but not this time. It has nothing on the same day that the EC is showing a pretty good little snow event. Seems like they have switched roles. more often than not at this range the Euro will outperform the GFS on the general idea...the problem is that it isn't like Duke playing a div 3 school....so even if the Euro is "more" right than the GFS at day 5, the GFS is still "more" right 40%? of the time....I'm not sure the GFS still has that reputation...it likes to go OTS a lot..and sometimes it leads the way and ends up being right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 My focus continues to be the January 24th-26th 2012 time period. you must have a lot of time on your hands, then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 What I was saying was that usually its the GFS teasing us with these snow scenarios, but not this time. It has nothing on the same day that the EC is showing a pretty good little snow event. Seems like they have switched roles. I'd much rather have the GFS showing nothing as it's been bouncing all over the place. Euro has been variable in details, but consistent in having a storm. I just like a model showing a way to get snow that isn't completely far fetched... It's better than far fetched. If we're going to pull a snowfall out of this pattern, it's going to be a marginal setup or a snow-to-rain event. This isn't a pattern where we get a few inches of powder from a clipper or a KU. My focus continues to be the January 24th-26th 2012 time period. Keep us posted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 My focus continues to be the January 24th-26th 2012 time period. I would love to hear why you like this time frame so much in a nice well thought out explanation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 more often than not at this range the Euro will outperform the GFS on the general idea...the problem is that it isn't like Duke playing a div 3 school....so even if the Euro is "more" right than the GFS at day 5, the GFS is still "more" right 40%? of the time....I'm not sure the GFS still has that reputation...it likes to go OTS a lot..and sometimes it leads the way and ends up being right and a little more ots with the Euro strength is the best scenario, of course meh, everyone (who is) complaining, stop at least we have something to follow other than JI's posts in the NE forum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 getting a perfect track and strength is a 100-1 longshot......this is a way to get snow...having precip well in front of the system...sometimes these start as snow or sleet or pellets and it changes to driving rain in 17 minutes.....I just like a model showing a way to get snow that isn't completely far fetched... I guess the question if the euro were 100% right is whether the surface temps would be cold enough to accumulate. At 12Z it looks like there is only a very small area of below freezing temps back in WV. The model has a warm bias but that's been the look this year. Yes there is a transient high but it slips off the coast. I for one don't trust the euro snow maps, I think they are pretty bad based on the two events that I've looked at this year. I don't see this set up as a dc accumulating snow set up but then I could always be wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Druff Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 i just dont think it's fair i have to defend my position because the euro weenie maps show such and such or because im going to be out of town... sorry i said it would rain. I wasn't mad because you said it was going to rain. And, you're right, people shouldn't attack you because you say it's going to rain. But, you should have to defend yourself when you say it's going to rain. Like it or not, your reputation is at play. You (usually) provide sensible analysis and write for CWG, so, yeh, I do expect a bit more from you than "it's gonna rain"... not every time, but > 50%. What drives me insane is that lately the conversations are like this: Person 1: SNOW! Person 2: RAIN! Ian: It's gonna rain Mattie g: i'm going to South Carolina Ji: JB cancelled winter Person 1: But the Euro map shows snow Person X: Doesn't matter, it'll turn north Mattie G: I like it warm. SNO: I continue to focus on January 24-26. Rinse. Repeat. Ad nauseam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 I guess the question if the euro were 100% right is whether the surface temps would be cold enough to accumulate. At 12Z it looks like there is only a very small area of below freezing temps back in WV. The model has a warm bias but that's been the look this year. Yes there is a transient high but it slips off the coast. I for one don't trust the euro snow maps, I think they are pretty bad based on the two events that I've looked at this year. I don't see this set up as a dc accumulating snow set up but then I could always be wrong. Accumulation is always a fickle beast, especially in these cases. I certainly wouldn't trust the totals, but I think they're probably decent as a precip-type gauge. With snow falling early in the morning in December and surface temps ~35F, I'll take my chances. Anecdotally, I think they (apparently) did decently well for NE in one of their minor events thus far. They certainly were high for the October storm locally, but I think did decently in S PA and areas that actually did get the snow to stick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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