Ji Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 00z gfs says game on...our one chance before an epic early jan blowtorch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 19, 2011 Author Share Posted December 19, 2011 Wow at 00z gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 19, 2011 Author Share Posted December 19, 2011 I would sell my soul for 2-4 inches right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 The GFS is cold at the surface (for snow) right along I-95. But it's 180 hours away. At least it's something to track....until it's gone in 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 19, 2011 Author Share Posted December 19, 2011 There has been a signal off or on now for a few days...nothing spectacular but anything over an inch in pattern would be a win Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 At least it's something to track....until it's gone in 24 hours in 6 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Ji started the thread... thus it won't happen. Post X-Mas storm cancel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 19, 2011 Author Share Posted December 19, 2011 00z euro has a big Christmas storm. Very close call again..a tad warm right now but trackable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 00z euro has a big Christmas storm. Very close call again..a tad warm right now but trackable I am all on board. Investing every last bit of energy I have on this one. Christmas storm or bust! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 00z euro has a big Christmas storm. Very close call again..a tad warm right now but trackable i'd want to be west for this one....I'm not optimistic, but at least we have something to track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 FWIW, 0z Euro has a coastal starting during the day on the 24th and ending on the 25th affecting the entire eastern seaboard....big issues with precip type here...the sfc high moves east.....something to track....looks like a nice hit for central PA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 FWIW, 0z Euro has a coastal starting during the day on the 24th and ending on the 25th affecting the entire eastern seaboard....big issues with precip type here...the sfc high moves east.....something to track....looks like a nice hit for central PA As depicted by the Euro, it's definitely a 40 N storm (Central PA up through SNE). Not going to mean much down here, except for watching it rain while areas to the north get snow. Luckily, the Euro"s accuracy is not stellar past 5 days out. Unfortunately, things are more likely to trend warmer rather than colder from this point on. Anybody wanting a Christmas miracle better start calling in some favors now. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 As depicted by the Euro, it's definitely a 40 N storm (Central PA up through SNE). Not going to mean much down here, except for watching it rain while areas to the north get snow. Luckily, the Euro"s accuracy is not stellar past 5 days out. Unfortunately, things are more likely to trend warmer rather than colder from this point on. Anybody wanting a Christmas miracle better start calling some favors now. MDstorm Euro and GFS have the same "general" idea....i dont expect much if anything here, but I will track this one...maybe HGR, etc can get something from the front end or the back end Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Euro and GFS have the same "general" idea....i dont expect much if anything here, but I will track this one...maybe HGR, etc can get something from the front end or the back end Looks like a New England event if we are lucky here...might be a NNE event. I am not optimistic on this one. Northern stream dominated event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 6 days away no one hold your breath Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 23rd-24th looks like a potentially interesting CAD event, with freezing rain/sleet to start before switching over to all rain as the upper low tracks over the Midwest in a Miller B type fashion. I'm more interested in the 25th-26th as the energy sags into the Southeast and tries to develop a system along the baroclinic zone near the Gulf Coast. That could produce a decent snowstorm if not for us than for someone along the East Coast and along the Appalachians. Euro and GFS remain quite different with the timing and placement of these systems... it'll be fun to watch things evolve this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Euro weenie maps look a lot like the October storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 6z GFS is all rain for Christmas Eve and then has the 26th storm OTS. The key to getting any sort of frozen precip on the 24th is we need to kill the inland storm and get all the energy transferred to the coast. The 6z never completely does that, so we're way too warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 It's a shame that the extended NAM, the DGEX is such a bad model. The 06Z looks very interesting to say the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Who knows if it happens, but if it does, the timing is horrible. That's a travel day for me. I need it pushed back about 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe Vanni Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 HM was talking about this period as a possibility and said interior Mid-Atlantic could be included on the 2nd storm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Justin Berk per Twitter put white xmas chances at 50%. Seems like a stretch right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Good thing I'll be down South for Christmas - I hate cold rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Justin Berk per Twitter put white xmas chances at 50%. Seems like a stretch right now Here we go again. I would consider sacrificing the rest of winter for a Christmas storm that began in the evening of the 24th and lasted until noon Christmas day. I'm not sure what my over/under for snow total and temperature would have to be, and I also know that when it comes to snow, I have the usual short memory of every other addict. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 23rd-24th looks like a potentially interesting CAD event, with freezing rain/sleet to start before switching over to all rain as the upper low tracks over the Midwest in a Miller B type fashion. I'm more interested in the 25th-26th as the energy sags into the Southeast and tries to develop a system along the baroclinic zone near the Gulf Coast. That could produce a decent snowstorm if not for us than for someone along the East Coast and along the Appalachians. Euro and GFS remain quite different with the timing and placement of these systems... it'll be fun to watch things evolve this week. Pretty much agree with your whole post. Both the 0z gfs and euro like the idea of pushing a low to our NW as a coastal gets going. Even with a -nao we have problems with that setup. With no block stand little chance to get any snow. It's going to be too warm at the surface and the ul's. I've been watching the post xmas timeframe for a week now. Certainly looks to be out best chance. We won't know much until the evolution of the pre-christmas system is locked up. I like having energy lag behind like that. There should be a good bit of moisture associated with it when it starts it trek N. We'd probably be best served with a good brush of the northern edge and having it go out to sea and not staying close or going up the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Justin Berk per Twitter put white xmas chances at 50%. Seems like a stretch right now Wow, with a posative nao the timing and track have to be perfect. Look at how from run to run, the models are swapping out solutions. I'm with Matt, I'll be watching but right now am not that excited about our chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Wow, with a posative nao the timing and track have to be perfect. Look at how from run to run, the models are swapping out solutions. I'm with Matt, I'll be watching but right now am not that excited about our chances. that makes 2 of us with Matt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Justin Berk per Twitter put white xmas chances at 50%. Seems like a stretch right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 looks good for me in ct for now but i doubt it stays that way -- if so i'll post some pics Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 looks good for me in ct for now but i doubt it stays that way -- if so i'll post some pics wrong forum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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