Irene wasn't a hurricane at landfall in NJ

[famartin]

Press of AC article:

http://www.pressofat...19bb2963f4.html

Hurricane Irene downgraded to tropical storm in New Jersey

Posted: Friday, December 16, 2011 7:14 pm

By JENNIFER KAY Associated Press |

MIAMI — Forecasters at the National Hurricane Center now say Hurricane Irene was only a tropical storm when it made landfall in New Jersey in August.

Irene was a Category 1 hurricane when it made landfall Aug. 27 in North Carolina. The storm made landfall again Aug. 28 near Atlantic City, where forecasters had said it was a hurricane with 75 mph winds.

However, after reviewing their data, forecasters have determined that Irene had weakened to a tropical storm with winds around 69 mph when it crossed New Jersey’s coast. Hurricanes have top winds of at least 74 mph.

“It’s a very small change,” said Eric Blake, a hurricane specialist at the hurricane center. “The difference residents would see is about the same. There’s no perceivable difference.”

Forecasters posted their report on Irene on Friday. The hurricane center occasionally upgrades or downgrades tropical storms as it reviews storm data at the end of the six-month hurricane season. In Irene’s case, a review of the data supported downgrading the storm at the time it hit New Jersey, Blake said.

“Five-knot changes like that happen all the time. At this time, it just happened near land,” Blake said.

Irene was one of the costliest storms in U.S. history. It caught much of the Eastern seaboard by surprise as it churned up the coast, prompting mass evacuations in New York City before it dumped torrential rains over parts of New England. Devastating flooding in Vermont damaged or destroyed hundreds of miles of roads, scores of bridges and hundreds of homes and left about a dozen communities cut off except for supply drops by National Guard helicopters.

The storm also killed more than 50 people in the U.S., Caribbean and Canada.

The six-month Atlantic hurricane season that ended Nov. 30 produced 19 tropical storms, including seven hurricanes, making it one of the busiest seasons on record. It was the sixth straight year without a major hurricane making landfall in the U.S.

Hurricanes are considered major when they reach Category 3, with top winds of at least 111 mph. Storms are named when their winds reach speeds of at least 39 mph.

The 2011 season’s storm totals include an upgrade of Tropical Storm Nate to hurricane status and the addition of an unnamed tropical storm that formed in early September over the open Atlantic between Bermuda and Nova Scotia.

The next Atlantic hurricane season begins June 1.

NHC official report:

http://www.nhc.noaa....92011_Irene.pdf

[Cfa]

I think it's interesting how they can go back and analyze things further, months later. A microscopic 6 mph adjustment at that too.

A strong tropical storm is equally impressive to me when it comes to this region. It does suck a little that they downgraded it though.

[Hailstorm]

Unfortunately, this article could add to the misguided public's mantra that Hurricane Irene was massively over-hyped by all the media outlets and the NWS, and considering the last hurricane to officially make landfall in the New York City metro area was Hurricane Belle in the 1980s. Just to put it into the public's perspective, Hurricane Irene was forecast to make landfall just east of NYC as a 100-MPH, Category 2 hurricane with gusts up to 125 MPH just a couple of days before its landfall.

[tmagan]

Unfortunately, this article could add to the misguided public's mantra that Hurricane Irene was massively over-hyped by all the media outlets and the NWS, and considering the last hurricane to officially make landfall in the New York City metro area was Hurricane Belle in the 1980s. Just to put it into the public's perspective, Hurricane Irene was forecast to make landfall just east of NYC as a 100-MPH, Category 2 hurricane with gusts up to 125 MPH just a couple of days before its landfall.

You should have seen the Gloria advisories as it was adjacent to Atlantic City.

[Hailstorm]

You should have seen the Gloria advisories as it was adjacent to Atlantic City.

How strong was Gloria forecast to be at that latitude?

[tmagan]

How strong was Gloria forecast to be at that latitude?

[jm1220]

Irene got caught midway between ERCs, plus the overall atmospheric environment sucked from when it was within the Bahamas on north, and we lucked out on that. If she was really a strong, 95-100mph hurricane up here, I might still not have a house from which to post this. The flooding was pretty severe for a time down here, even as a TS on the astronomical high tide plus the major surge setup it had on its way in. I had about 2-3 feet of water at the end of my block and severe garage/basement flooding. And then obviously the famous video of the Long Beach lifeguard HQ slamming into our boardwalk. That's only a few blocks from my house as well. I also had no power for almost 2 days.

[Dark Star]

It took them this long to reach this conclusion? I was a lone (and much chastised) nay sayer to calling Irene a hurricane in NJ. I followed the winds all day before it hit and knew it could not be a hurricane. I hope never to see a hurricane force storm take the track Irene did, or we will be changing geographic maps. I still can't figure out how the NHC originally called it a hurricane - and no one protested! I feel vindicated.

[JBG]

I think it's interesting how they can go back and analyze things further, months later. A microscopic 6 mph adjustment at that too.

A strong tropical storm is equally impressive to me when it comes to this region. It does suck a little that they downgraded it though.

I think the grading of Irene as a hurricane was totally political. The powers that be had to justify their extreme precautions, which continued even after it become clear that Irene was a non-event.

[Hailstorm]

I think the grading of Irene as a hurricane was totally political. The powers that be had to justify their extreme precautions, which continued even after it become clear that Irene was a non-event.

It wasn't a "non-event" in Upstate New York or Northern NJ though. Those areas received severe river flooding for weeks.

[HurricaneJosh]

I felt the storm was absurdly overhyped for the NJ/NY region-- not by the NHC (which did its job very well), but by the news media.

I agree with the downgrade, and I was expecting it. I just had a hard time believing the system was sustaining 65-kt winds at that point.

For a strong hurricane to get up to this region, two things need to happen: 1) the storm needs to start VERY strong when it's down below 35N (like, a Cat 4 or 5) and 2) it needs to move very fast. Neither happened with Irene. It was a slow-moving Cat 1 in NC-- so why on earth did anyone expect an apocalypse in NY/NJ? I remain puzzled.

Re: some other comments above:

* Belle was in 1976 (not in the '80s).

* The last hurricane to officially make landfall in the NY Metro area was Gloria 1985-- not Belle.

* Gloria was forecast to hit Long Island as a full-on major, and at the time it made landfall at Fire Island, the public advisory (12 pm EDT) actually said 120 mph! (Post-analysis indicated it wasn't nearly that strong.) The warnings throughout the NY Metro area were extremely dire-- people were spooked. I was a teenager then-- I remember it well.

[bluewave]

I felt the storm was absurdly overhyped for the NJ/NY region-- not by the NHC (which did its job very well), but by the news media.

I agree with the downgrade, and I was expecting it. I just had a hard time believing the system was sustaining 65-kt winds at that point.

For a strong hurricane to get up to this region, two things need to happen: 1) the storm needs to start VERY strong when it's down below 35N (like, a Cat 4 or 5) and 2) it needs to move very fast. Neither happened with Irene. It was a slow-moving Cat 1 in NC-- so why on earth did anyone expect an apocalypse in NY/NJ? I remain puzzled.

Re: some other comments above:

* Belle was in 1976 (not in the '80s).

* The last hurricane to officially make landfall in the NY Metro area was Gloria 1985-- not Belle.

* Gloria was forecast to hit Long Island as a full-on major, and at the time it made landfall at Fire Island, the public advisory (12 pm EDT) actually said 120 mph! (Post-analysis indicated it wasn't nearly that strong.) The warnings throughout the NY Metro area were extremely dire-- people were spooked. I was a teenager then-- I remember it well.

Lloyd Lindsay Young really did a great job. I think he was the only forecaster at the time on television to

describe the weakening process the day before the storm hit us. The forecast picks up at 8:00 minutes.

[bluewave]

Irene got caught midway between ERCs, plus the overall atmospheric environment sucked from when it was within the Bahamas on north, and we lucked out on that. If she was really a strong, 95-100mph hurricane up here, I might still not have a house from which to post this. The flooding was pretty severe for a time down here, even as a TS on the astronomical high tide plus the major surge setup it had on its way in. I had about 2-3 feet of water at the end of my block and severe garage/basement flooding. And then obviously the famous video of the Long Beach lifeguard HQ slamming into our boardwalk. That's only a few blocks from my house as well. I also had no power for almost 2 days.

Yeah,the peak surge of about 4-5 feet occurred right at the time of high tide during a new moon.

We really lucked out with Gloria's 8 foot surge happening two hours before low tide. A few

hours earlier and all of Long Beach would have been under water.

[tmagan]

Here is a paper, which in part describes how and why Hurricane Gloria was kept stronger that in actually was. Keep in mind, the paper was written over two decades ago.

http://champs.cecs.ucf.edu/Library/Journal_Articles/pdfs/The%20relationship%20of%20hurricane%20reconnaissance%20flight-level%20wind%20measurements%20to%20winds%20measured%20by%20NOAA%E2%80%99s%20oceanic%20platforms.pdf

[HurricaneJosh]

People can say what they want about how lame Gloria was-- and for sure it was unraveling by the tme it reached Long Island-- but it was a real hurricane with a core of damaging winds. As I've mentioned here in the past, in Huntington (on W Long Island) we had the highest and most damaging gusts just before the calm of the eye-- a clue that this was still a decent tropical cyclone. Irene had so such structural integrity-- not even close.

After seeing some real flops in this region in recent years-- the last one being Irene-- I think a lot of people can appreciate that Gloria was comparatively awesome. A 75-kt hurricane that rips roofs off of houses and buildings and collapses airport hangars ain't nothin' to sneeze at in this region.

[NJHurricane]

Hey...no takebacks!!! :-P

Was expecting a downgrade at some point....the lack of sustained winds over land killed any chance of surviving re-analysis with hurricane status intact. Still, a very impactful storm for this state, arguably the widest impact of my lifetime, due to the combo of freshwater flooding and wind related power problems which lingered more than a week in some areas. Down by me here in South Jersey, we had decent strong TS type damage, not an overwhelming amount of downed trees and power lines, more than what I would call "scattered." Fatalities: check. Farther north also had widespread minor damages, with localized effects that were every bit up to the "hype". The week after Irene I worked in Milburn NJ...downtown was slammed with flooding, and every block I went past had a tree or power line down. The theater where I worked that week only had partial power for 4 days after the storm, several of my coworkers had no power for 10 days, one had severe damage from flooding in his basement that nearly reached the first floor, and one had home that was totally flooded and just now moving back into the rehabed structure.... knowing of and seeing some of those impacts puts me on tilt when non weather people claim that Irene did "nothing"....nonetheless it is the correct call, and my screenname goes unfulfilled.

EDIT/NOTE: Grew up in Morris county and was a kid when Gloria brushed us, and from what I saw Irene had way more impact than that storm for that area.

[HurricaneJosh]

Hey...no takebacks!!! :-P

Was expecting a downgrade at some point....the lack of sustained winds over land killed any chance of surviving re-analysis with hurricane status intact. Still, a very impactful storm for this state, arguably the widest impact of my lifetime, due to the combo of freshwater flooding and wind related power problems which lingered more than a week in some areas. Down by me here in South Jersey, we had decent strong TS type damage, not an overwhelming amount of downed trees and power lines, more than what I would call "scattered." Fatalities: check. Farther north also had widespread minor damages, with localized effects that were every bit up to the "hype". The week after Irene I worked in Milburn NJ...downtown was slammed with flooding, and every block I went past had a tree or power line down. The theater where I worked that week only had partial power for 4 days after the storm, several of my coworkers had no power for 10 days, one had severe damage from flooding in his basement that nearly reached the first floor, and one had home that was totally flooded and just now moving back into the rehabed structure.... knowing of and seeing some of those impacts puts me on tilt when non weather people claim that Irene did "nothing"....nonetheless it is the correct call, and my screenname goes unfulfilled.

EDIT/NOTE: Grew up in Morris county and was a kid when Gloria brushed us, and from what I saw Irene had way more impact than that storm for that area.

That makes sense, since Irene hit NJ and Gloria didn't. Y'all got brushed by Gloria-- the main impact missed you and was felt on Long Island.

[CooL]

the core had light winds when it was at delaware's latitude, so i thought it was pretty obvious that day that it wasnt even close to being a hurricane. No biggie there.

But as far as hype, of course its gonna get overhyped. A lot of places had immense flooding, but the wind was comparable to a noreaster. Prepare for the worst, h ope for the best.

[bluewave]

the core had light winds when it was at delaware's latitude, so i thought it was pretty obvious that day that it wasnt even close to being a hurricane. No biggie there.

But as far as hype, of course its gonna get overhyped. A lot of places had immense flooding, but the wind was comparable to a noreaster. Prepare for the worst, h ope for the best.

Yeah, the Euro had a mind of it's own.

[CooL]

Yeah, the Euro had a mind of it's own.

amazing that the euro was doing that lol. My friend on the DE beaches reported light winds in the "eyewall".

[bluewave]

amazing that the euro was doing that lol. My friend on the DE beaches reported light winds in the "eyewall".

The Euro was in 1821 mode on that one.

[HurricaneJosh]

the core had light winds when it was at delaware's latitude, so i thought it was pretty obvious that day that it wasnt even close to being a hurricane. No biggie there.

But as far as hype, of course its gonna get overhyped. A lot of places had immense flooding, but the wind was comparable to a noreaster. Prepare for the worst, h ope for the best.

I dunno-- is the hyping inevitable? I remember Charley 1986, which was remarkably similar to Irene-- a Cat 1 hitting NC and then creeping N and threatening the Mid-Atlantic states. This was a year after Gloria, and despite that, I don't remember much hype at all with that. People weren't freaking out-- the reaction seemed somehow more proportional to the threat.

There are definite consequences to overreaction-- not just the dollar costs but also future apathy when a truly dangerous 'cane threatens the region-- something which will happen again at some point.

To be clear, I'm not faulting the NHC-- they did a fine job. I'm faulting the news media and local authorities in NY Metro for freaking out.

[famartin]

I dunno-- is the hyping inevitable? I remember Charley 1986, which was remarkably similar to Irene-- a Cat 1 hitting NC and then creeping N and threatening the Mid-Atlantic states. This was a year after Gloria, and despite that, I don't remember much hype at all with that. People weren't freaking out-- the reaction seemed somehow more proportional to the threat.

There are definite consequences to overreaction-- not just the dollar costs but also future apathy when a truly dangerous 'cane threatens the region-- something which will happen again at some point.

To be clear, I'm not faulting the NHC-- they did a fine job. I'm faulting the news media and local authorities in NY Metro for freaking out.

In fairness, reviewing NHC's report shows that they had a significant positive bias on the intensity forecasts.

Charley was probably not hyped because everyone clearly remembered Gloria and knew it wasn't even that strong.

[HurricaneJosh]

In fairness, reviewing NHC's report shows that they had a significant positive bias on the intensity forecasts.

Charley was probably not hyped because everyone clearly remembered Gloria and knew it wasn't even that strong.

Their forecasts for the NC landfall intensity had a major positive bias. But once it reached NC as a Cat 1, it was game over. Then it was obvious a strong hurricane was not going to hit NY/NJ, because it was only going to diminish from that point.

Re: Gloria... Hold on there. Wasn't that strong for whom? It was not as strong as predicted, but it had a major impact on Long Island. There was significant structural damage on the South Shore barrier islands-- including houses and buildings losing roofs and walls. To people there, it was quite strong. This aside, large parts of the Island were without power for two weeks or more. We missed a lot of school, etc. It was a big deal. Fresh off of that, I'd understand why folks in the NY Metro region might freak a little Re: the next threat.

[famartin]

Their forecasts for the NC landfall intensity had a major positive bias. But once it reached NC as a Cat 1, it was game over. Then it was obvious a strong hurricane was not going to hit NY/NY, because it was only going to diminish from that point.

Re: Gloria... Hold on there. Wasn't that strong for whom? It was not as strong as predicted, but it had a major impact on Long Island. There was significant structural damage on the South Shore barrier islands-- including houses and buildings losing roofs and walls. To people there, it was quie strong. This aside, large parts of the Island were without power for two weeks or more. We missed a lot of school, etc. It was a big deal. Fresh off of that, I'd understand why folks in the NY Metro region might freak a little Re: the next threat.

I meant they knew Charley wasn't that stong.

[HurricaneJosh]

I meant they knew Charley wasn't that stong.

OK, gotcha-- thanks for clarifying.

But this illustrates my point, because once Irene got to NC as a 75-kt hurricane, we all knew it wasn't that strong, either.

[Riptide]

The Euro was in 1821 mode on that one.

True dat.

[NJwinter23]

Their forecasts for the NC landfall intensity had a major positive bias. But once it reached NC as a Cat 1, it was game over. Then it was obvious a strong hurricane was not going to hit NY/NJ, because it was only going to diminish from that point.

Re: Gloria... Hold on there. Wasn't that strong for whom? It was not as strong as predicted, but it had a major impact on Long Island. There was significant structural damage on the South Shore barrier islands-- including houses and buildings losing roofs and walls. To people there, it was quite strong. This aside, large parts of the Island were without power for two weeks or more. We missed a lot of school, etc. It was a big deal. Fresh off of that, I'd understand why folks in the NY Metro region might freak a little Re: the next threat.

At the same token though, Irene's strange, gigantic structure with the huge wind field that was not mixing down to the ground well was a huge reason why it did not weaken fast at all. This is largely considering the rather leisurely pace it was moving at between when it made land fall in NC and NJ/LI. The huge wind field was a big reason why it was only a cat 1 hitting NC, but also allowed it to stay largely in tact on its way up north..friction also did not unwind the storm like you would normally expect because the winds weren't mixing down well. Other much stronger, even major hurricanes that take that track would probably not even be a 70 mph tropical storm by the time they reached up here moving at that speed..I thought Irene was a very impressive storm for the area and not over hyped within 2 days (once the 100mph hurricane landfall predictions in LI were abandoned)

[HurricaneJosh]

At the same token though, Irene's strange, gigantic structure with the huge wind field that was not mixing down to the ground well was a huge reason why it did not weaken fast at all. This is largely considering the rather leisurely pace it was moving at between when it made land fall in NC and NJ/LI. The huge wind field was a big reason why it was only a cat 1 hitting NC, but also allowed it to stay largely in tact on its way up north..friction also did not unwind the storm like you would normally expect because the winds weren't mixing down well. Other much stronger, even major hurricanes that take that track would probably not even be a 70 mph tropical storm by the time they reached up here moving at that speed..I thought Irene was a very impressive storm for the area and not over hyped within 2 days (once the 100mph hurricane landfall predictions in LI were abandoned)

It weakened about as fast as I'd expect. It had size going for it and slow motion going against it. The landfall intensities in NJ and NY were basically what you'd expect, given the setup-- no surprises.

And I honestly don't think it was all that intact in NY/NJ. I was at the landfall point in NC (just N of Cape Lookout) and at the landfall point in NY (Cony Island), and it wasn't recognizable in the second landfall. There was no "eye"-- no coherent core to it. It was just this stew of crappy weather. That day made a huge difference.

In terms of the high winds not mixing to the surface, I feel that's par for the course once you're dealing with a weakening cyclone N of 35N. Gloria was similar-- the landfall advisory indicated 120-mph winds because they didn't realize the highest winds weren't mixing to the surface. (But with Gloria, damaging winds were still making it to the surface-- just not as much.) I don't feel like Irene was all that unique, really-- except that the winds were consistently craptastic for the central pressure, even down in the Bahamas. This cyclone never had a good gradient going.

[OSUmetstud]

It weakened about as fast as I'd expect. It had size going for it and slow motion going against it. The landfall intensities in NJ and NY were basically what you'd expect, given the setup-- no surprises.

And I honestly don't think it was all that intact in NY/NJ. I was at the landfall point in NC (just N of Cape Lookout) and at the landfall point in NY (Cony Island), and it wasn't recognizable in the second landfall. There was no "eye"-- no coherent core to it. It was just this stew of crappy weather. That day made a huge difference.

In terms of the high winds not mixing to the surface, I feel that's par for the course once you're dealing with a weakening cyclone N of 35N. Gloria was similar-- the landfall advisory indicated 120-mph winds because they didn't realize the highest winds weren't mixing to the surface. (But with Gloria, damaging winds were still making it to the surface-- just not as much.) I don't feel like Irene was all that unique, really-- except that the winds were consistently craptastic for the central pressure, even down in the Bahamas. This cyclone never had a good gradient going.

we've seen that type of stuff before...even in N GOM hurricanes. It seems that once you lose that inner core...even in relatively favorable environments it's extremely tough for hurricanes to re-strengthen.

I wonder how much physical evidence there is for large hurricanes not weakening as fast.