Tropopause_Fold Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 To keep things separate from the long-range thread, figured it would be good to break this out. might just be me posting to myself... anyhow, good looking set-up for some ocean effect snow sat pm - sun midday. torched SSTs leaving us with really good delta Ts given 850s of -12 to -14C, good unidirectional NNE flow up to 850/825 mb or so ocean induced CAPES nearing 750 jkg depending upon the model run and sounding location and models actually spitting out decent qpf (by OES standards)...again some of these events hardly show themselves on guidance given all of that, will probably see a trace. LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 so, where should i go to chase? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 Good luck cape cod and se mass@ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 Map from BOX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 16, 2011 Author Share Posted December 16, 2011 so, where should i go to chase? go to the bridges. that way, if the event fails, you can just jump right off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 Where is the mention of the rest of SNE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 Hope you get creamed Phil! Sounds good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarverWX Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 It will be nice for Plymouth south to see some of there first flakes!! I hope this over performs but my feeling is that we may just end up with a dusting to 1" But we shall see as the NAM is looking better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 go to the bridges. that way, if the event fails, you can just jump right off. spectacular Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 so, where should i go to chase? Sandwich/W Barnstable? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 16, 2011 Author Share Posted December 16, 2011 Sandwich/W Barnstable? honestly, i'm not even sure she'd need to cross the bridge. just go stay at messenger's house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmanmitch Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 so, where should i go to chase? Don't quite know why, but Brewster always seems to do well in these events. Then again, maybe it's just my perception of things. I do recall Brewster getting 18" in 1993 or whenever it was. My folks used to own a beach place there and some of the neighbors said they had 18" in that event. Not sure how much of it was OES vs. synoptic as I was quite young at the time and my memory is a bit foggy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 To keep things separate from the long-range thread, figured it would be good to break this out. might just be me posting to myself... anyhow, good looking set-up for some ocean effect snow sat pm - sun midday. torched SSTs leaving us with really good delta Ts given 850s of -12 to -14C, good unidirectional NNE flow up to 850/825 mb or so ocean induced CAPES nearing 750 jkg depending upon the model run and sounding location and models actually spitting out decent qpf (by OES standards)...again some of these events hardly show themselves on guidance given all of that, will probably see a trace. LOL. I know the feeling when we get upslope events, lol. I look forward to hearing more about this event though... very cool meso-scale possibilities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 Map from BOX Is this a new product they are using for their snowfall forecasts? Looks worse than the old one they put out before snowfalls. Where is the mention of the rest of SNE? You do see the map above, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 honestly, i'm not even sure she'd need to cross the bridge. just go stay at messenger's house. Yeah if winds can veer enough you're right. 4km BTV WRF has 0.8" liquid over messenger in Plymouth. 12km NAM has the jackpot over W Banstable (0.25"). 12km SUSB MM5 has highest right over Canal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 The 18z NAM PYM bufkit has a higher cap at about 730 mb Saturday night compared to the 12z which was around 800 mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 The 18z NAM PYM bufkit has a higher cap at about 730 mb Saturday night compared to the 12z which was around 800 mb. If you can get CAPE in the snow growth layer.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 If you can get CAPE in the snow growth layer.... They could be in for quite a surprise down there if things go perfectly. I'd almost pay to see Kevin's reaction to 7" of snow on cweat's tractor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 go to the bridges. that way, if the event fails, you can just jump right off. holy crap...this totally made me LOL!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 GFS is better now for the Cape again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 They could be in for quite a surprise down there if things go perfectly. I'd almost pay to see Kevin's reaction to 7" of snow on cweat's tractor. I hope they get it. I really do I'm expecting some snow here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 I hope they get it. I really do I'm expecting some snow here you shouldn't Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 you shouldn't D-2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 D-2 2" are you drunk????????????????? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 2" are you drunk????????????????? But, but, but...don't you know? Upslope NNE winds FTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 2" are you drunk????????????????? Strong vort...norlun extending west..It may not happen..but we've seen these types of situations drop surprise bands of snow before. Certainly foolish to rule out snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 Strong vort...norlun extending west..It may not happen..but we've seen these types of situations drop surprise bands of snow before. Certainly foolish to rule out snow I wouldn't be shocked if you had flurries or a fluke trace, but that's about it. If I'm lucky, maybe the ground is whitened here, but this is more for cstl pym county and the Cape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 Yeah if winds can veer enough you're right. 4km BTV WRF has 0.8" liquid over messenger in Plymouth. 12km NAM has the jackpot over W Banstable (0.25"). 12km SUSB MM5 has highest right over Canal. The BTV WRF excels in these meso-scale events... not sure if the fact that it is down at the Cape matters (do the regional models lose credibility on the outside of their range? how does that work?) but that model is usually pretty darn good at highlighting the area that gets smoked. Like any of those meso-scale models it can be a bit too wet (sometimes it'll be showing like 1-2" QPF for big upslope events when we actually verify like 0.75), but if those localized models can't excel at meso-scale events then they are pretty much worthless, haha. Here's a forecasting nightmare... partly cloudy with localized winter storm warning snow amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 i wonder if it makes sense for some to migrate there for the experience? could be a elixer for starved cravers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 not to distract your thread, but it looks slightly windex-like across much of the area tomorrow - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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