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Early Winter OES Cape/Islands/Far SE MA


Tropopause_Fold

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To keep things separate from the long-range thread, figured it would be good to break this out. might just be me posting to myself...

anyhow, good looking set-up for some ocean effect snow sat pm - sun midday.

torched SSTs leaving us with really good delta Ts given 850s of -12 to -14C,

good unidirectional NNE flow up to 850/825 mb or so

ocean induced CAPES nearing 750 jkg depending upon the model run and sounding location

and models actually spitting out decent qpf (by OES standards)...again some of these events hardly show themselves on guidance

given all of that, will probably see a trace. LOL.

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so, where should i go to chase?

Don't quite know why, but Brewster always seems to do well in these events. Then again, maybe it's just my perception of things. I do recall Brewster getting 18" in 1993 or whenever it was. My folks used to own a beach place there and some of the neighbors said they had 18" in that event. Not sure how much of it was OES vs. synoptic as I was quite young at the time and my memory is a bit foggy.

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To keep things separate from the long-range thread, figured it would be good to break this out. might just be me posting to myself...

anyhow, good looking set-up for some ocean effect snow sat pm - sun midday.

torched SSTs leaving us with really good delta Ts given 850s of -12 to -14C,

good unidirectional NNE flow up to 850/825 mb or so

ocean induced CAPES nearing 750 jkg depending upon the model run and sounding location

and models actually spitting out decent qpf (by OES standards)...again some of these events hardly show themselves on guidance

given all of that, will probably see a trace. LOL.

I know the feeling when we get upslope events, lol.

I look forward to hearing more about this event though... very cool meso-scale possibilities.

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honestly, i'm not even sure she'd need to cross the bridge. just go stay at messenger's house.

Yeah if winds can veer enough you're right.

4km BTV WRF has 0.8" liquid over messenger in Plymouth. 12km NAM has the jackpot over W Banstable (0.25").

12km SUSB MM5 has highest right over Canal.

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Strong vort...norlun extending west..It may not happen..but we've seen these types of situations drop surprise bands of snow before. Certainly foolish to rule out snow

I wouldn't be shocked if you had flurries or a fluke trace, but that's about it. If I'm lucky, maybe the ground is whitened here, but this is more for cstl pym county and the Cape.

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Yeah if winds can veer enough you're right.

4km BTV WRF has 0.8" liquid over messenger in Plymouth. 12km NAM has the jackpot over W Banstable (0.25").

12km SUSB MM5 has highest right over Canal.

The BTV WRF excels in these meso-scale events... not sure if the fact that it is down at the Cape matters (do the regional models lose credibility on the outside of their range? how does that work?) but that model is usually pretty darn good at highlighting the area that gets smoked. Like any of those meso-scale models it can be a bit too wet (sometimes it'll be showing like 1-2" QPF for big upslope events when we actually verify like 0.75), but if those localized models can't excel at meso-scale events then they are pretty much worthless, haha.

Here's a forecasting nightmare... partly cloudy with localized winter storm warning snow amounts.

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