snowstormcanuck Posted December 21, 2011 Author Share Posted December 21, 2011 EURO lost the Christmas storm. GFS FTW. The only chance now (barring a spectacular flip-flop in the models) is the Friday wave. I'd say surrender all hope except if you live in OH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 What you're saying about the December 9th and December 5th storms is not 100% true. For the December 5th storm especially, all the models 48 hours out had a full fledged winter storm along a straight line from Oklahoma to Michigan. It did back off considerably until bringing back only a shadow of what it previously had within the 12 hours, as you claim. As for December 9th and Saturday's clipper, they all showed up to some extent as well. Then in regards to the blizzard, that was due to a last minute NW trend (not unexpected depending on who you ask and what you were referencing). Places in the OK Panhandle did do relatively well, but as expected (depending on who you ask and what you reference) it was in a narrow band. December 5th....models did show the razor-thin stripe of snow from OK to MI, actually at times it looked like someone would get absolutely buried (near STL if I remember correctly), but this was much more than 48 hours out. By the time we hit that timeframe the models had backed off on the snow idea, except for a small blob of light snow in MO, showing that even here in MI the cold wouldnt meet the precip in time for any snow. Until 12 hours before, and the HRRR was the first to catch up, and its been our best snow of the young season so far. December 9th and Saturdays clipper, yes they DID show up on the models....my point is, the Dec 9th event showed very spotty to at times no qpf in MI at all and it ended up giving the best NORTH of Detroit. This past clipper ended up a sort of a two wave scenario and the first wave, hitting Chicago and areas WNW, was not shown to be nearly as potent as it ended up being (I use the word "potent" in very relative context, LOL this was a 0.5-2" snow for most). And yes, the Plains storm did a NW trend. I wasnt trying to say that the models dont show these storms at all, just that they have been performing poorly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 EURO lost the Christmas storm. GFS FTW. The only chance now (barring a spectacular flip-flop in the models) is the Friday wave. I'd say surrender all hope except if you live in OH. The Friday wave just now sort of has my interest sparked. Looking at the 00z/06z GFS, it looks like the op is the driest/furthest southeast, and almost all the ensembles bring snow into eastern MI. Will be interesting to see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 December 9th and Saturdays clipper, yes they DID show up on the models....my point is, the Dec 9th event showed very spotty to at times no qpf in MI at all and it ended up giving the best NORTH of Detroit. The December 9th snows were best well south of Toledo from a line from near Fort Wayne to Akron. I posted the visible satellite shot of this in another thread. Sure there might have been an isolated decent amount in Oakland county, but that doesn't detract from the fact that the main swath of moderate snows were in a 3 county wide band stretching a couple hundred miles through Indiana and Ohio. This was the consensus by most of the models beforehand, so I wouldn't say they were crap just because it didn't have resolution to pick up some scale local effects. The big picture was spot on. See visible satellite shot 2 days later: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 The December 9th snows were best well south of Toledo from a line from near Fort Wayne to Akron. I posted the visible satellite shot of this in another thread. Sure there might have been an isolated decent amount in Oakland county, but that doesn't detract from the fact that the main swath of moderate snows were in a 3 county wide band stretching a couple hundred miles through Indiana and Ohio. This was the consensus by most of the models beforehand, so I wouldn't say they were crap just because it didn't have resolution to pick up some scale local effects. The big picture was spot on. See visible satellite shot 2 days later: http://www.americanw...s/page__st__735 I cant believe all this started over me simply saying the models have been performing poorly. YES the best snows were in IN/OH, where the models progged them to be. HOWEVER....ZERO....measurable snowfall was forecast in southern MI. It was supposed to be too dry up here, with the snow at most grazing the state border. DTX even said they would make snow likely despite no qpf due to the instability over lake MI helping enhance snow. Yes, the best snow DID end up in IN/OH...however....the metro-Detroit area saw about an inch from DTW-south and 2-3" in the northern burbs....so 1-3" of snow from a forecasted qpf of 0 until the day before is not "spot on" in my opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 December 5th....models did show the razor-thin stripe of snow from OK to MI, actually at times it looked like someone would get absolutely buried (near STL if I remember correctly), but this was much more than 48 hours out. By the time we hit that timeframe the models had backed off on the snow idea, except for a small blob of light snow in MO, showing that even here in MI the cold wouldnt meet the precip in time for any snow. Until 12 hours before, and the HRRR was the first to catch up, and its been our best snow of the young season so far. December 9th and Saturdays clipper, yes they DID show up on the models....my point is, the Dec 9th event showed very spotty to at times no qpf in MI at all and it ended up giving the best NORTH of Detroit. This past clipper ended up a sort of a two wave scenario and the first wave, hitting Chicago and areas WNW, was not shown to be nearly as potent as it ended up being (I use the word "potent" in very relative context, LOL this was a 0.5-2" snow for most). And yes, the Plains storm did a NW trend. I wasnt trying to say that the models dont show these storms at all, just that they have been performing poorly. My point is we know the models will never be 100%, they were never meant to be 100% since meteorologoy isn't an exact science. It doesn't change the fact of course that the models, for all intents and purposes, will always have a general idea of what will happen with a system (the mesoscale factors be damned, no model can predict that and they're not supposed to as of now). That's what they were meant for, to give us a general presentation of what a system will do or how it will perform. It's up to the meteorologists to dechiper anything else beyond that, which is why we have them. Also, you keep bringing up model performance whenever someone points out the less than stellar start to witner for most. I'm in complete agreement with you that there are still over 3 months of winter to go and anyone's who's worrying about having a awful winter overall (below normal) as of now is kidding themselves. However, it also doesn't change the fact that the overall pattern in the interim is crap. It's true that just because the overall pattern is crappy it doesn't mean we can't eek out some appreciable snow from it, but it does mean there's a lesser probability than normal of it happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 December 5th....models did show the razor-thin stripe of snow from OK to MI, actually at times it looked like someone would get absolutely buried (near STL if I remember correctly), but this was much more than 48 hours out. By the time we hit that timeframe the models had backed off on the snow idea, except for a small blob of light snow in MO, showing that even here in MI the cold wouldnt meet the precip in time for any snow. Until 12 hours before, and the HRRR was the first to catch up, and its been our best snow of the young season so far. December 9th and Saturdays clipper, yes they DID show up on the models....my point is, the Dec 9th event showed very spotty to at times no qpf in MI at all and it ended up giving the best NORTH of Detroit. This past clipper ended up a sort of a two wave scenario and the first wave, hitting Chicago and areas WNW, was not shown to be nearly as potent as it ended up being (I use the word "potent" in very relative context, LOL this was a 0.5-2" snow for most). And yes, the Plains storm did a NW trend. I wasnt trying to say that the models dont show these storms at all, just that they have been performing poorly. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 lol The lack of snow is turning people into jerks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 I wonder if he put out a Winter Outlook? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 I think the fact that we have more models nowadays, some of which run 4 times a day, adds to the perception that the models stink. When you have that many model runs that run off of limited initial data (relatively speaking), things are bound to be inconsistent. Ask anyone who was around 20+ years ago about model performance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 This winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 21, 2011 Author Share Posted December 21, 2011 EURO clown maps actually spit ~0.5" of snow for Toronto on Friday. Maybe a few tenths of an inch for Detroit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toronto4 Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 EURO clown maps actually spit ~0.5" of snow for Toronto on Friday. Maybe a few tenths of an inch for Detroit. The 12z GFS and RGEM also spit out some QPF for Toronto early Friday morning. It'll be interesting to see if models trend towards a wetter solution. I remember a snow event back on Saturday, December 10th, 1994 where forecasts earlier that day were only calling for an inch. However, as the day wore on, the system kept trending NW and the Toronto area got 5" from late afternoon to early Sunday morning. The night before, Don Paul from WIVB Buffalo was calling for the best snows in the southern tier of NY state and very little for Buffalo and points north. You know this winter is bad when we are rooting for 0.5" of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 21, 2011 Author Share Posted December 21, 2011 The 12z GFS and RGEM also spit out some QPF for Toronto early Friday morning. It'll be interesting to see if models trend towards a wetter solution. I remember a snow event back on Saturday, December 10th, 1994 where forecasts earlier that day were only calling for an inch. However, as the day wore on, the system kept trending NW and the Toronto area got 5" from late afternoon to early Sunday morning. The night before, Don Paul from WIVB Buffalo was calling for the best snows in the southern tier of NY state and very little for Buffalo and points north. You know this winter is bad when we are rooting for 0.5" of snow. Remember 5 years ago when the "NW trend" was a foregone conclusion. You just had to sit back and wonder when, rather than if, the models were going to push a storm further to the NW. We could really use that right about now. Alas, I wouldn't hold my breath. But some mood snow would be nice. Maybe get downtown off a trace for the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 Merry Christmas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 Maybe an Inch or two for DTW? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 Punt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 Looks like flurries at best for IL unless something changes. This pattern is driving me insane lol Sent from my SPH-D710 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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