Chicago WX Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 2006. And I started the thread. FML. I can't find that particular thread on Eastern, but I remember there was hope. So what we're really saying is you suck at doing Christmas storm threads. Still, I thought there was another Christmas storm flop going back farther. Maybe it was in the WWBB days (pre 2004). Hoosier? Buckeye? Anyone remember something from back then? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Euro kinda has the storm back, just south, and goes along the EC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 I can't find that particular thread on Eastern, but I remember there was hope. So what we're really saying is you suck at doing Christmas storm threads. Still, I thought there was another Christmas storm flop going back farther. Maybe it was in the WWBB days (pre 2004). Hoosier? Buckeye? Anyone remember something from back then? There was the pre-Christmas 2004 event in which the GFS briefly tried to hammer Chicago before correcting. But yeah I seem to remember another event...maybe 2003? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 There was the pre-Christmas 2004 event in which the GFS briefly tried to hammer Chicago before correcting. But yeah I seem to remember another event...maybe 2003? 2003 could be it. I just remember Ji being thrilled that Chicago wasn't going to see a snowstorm. Some things never change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Im talking about the models in general, not just with this potential event. They have not been fine, they have been all over the place with everything, changing every run. wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Storm completely disappeared WOW! Not really... ECMWF/GGEM show the wave around 120-144hr, so just a tad later if anything. GFS though, it's gone. Barely even a trace left of it. The way the models have been with this pattern put magicians to shame. There was the pre-Christmas 2004 event in which the GFS briefly tried to hammer Chicago before correcting. But yeah I seem to remember another event...maybe 2003? It probably was. '02 and '04 were great storms here (7" in '02, about 10" for '04)... so that would likely be it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 GFS showing something more interesting back in the Midwest now. Potential for phasing in later runs? I don't remember any big snowstorms right around Christmas from 2001-2005, but 2000 the Chicago area did! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 21, 2011 Author Share Posted December 21, 2011 GFS showing something more interesting back in the Midwest now. Potential for phasing in later runs? I don't remember any big snowstorms right around Christmas from 2001-2005, but 2000 the Chicago area did! No way that s/w can amplify in such a progressive flow aloft. There'll be some minor vacillations, but I don't think it'll come too much further NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 wrong No, not wrong. The Dec 5th snowfall that gave 1-4" to SE MI was not forecast to give any snow to anyone 12 hours prior. The Dec 9th snowfall that blanketed southern MI had models show us dry til a day before. Many areas that were affected by last Saturdays clipper expected nothing 2 days before, and totally shell-shocked the Cleveland area. This latest storm was a mega bust in the TX panhandle, areas forecast to see 12"+ saw 1-2". A lot of the less important things too, like several days the models had us totally clearing out when we remained totally overcast, and of course the drastic changes in the longrange each model run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 wrong Lol I love your new troll-mode Chi-Storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 No way that s/w can amplify in such a progressive flow aloft. There'll be some minor vacillations, but I don't think it'll come too much further NW. Not that it means much, but the GEFS are wetter and NW of the OP. Even gives me some snow... So I guess it's worth watching Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 No, not wrong. The Dec 5th snowfall that gave 1-4" to SE MI was not forecast to give any snow to anyone 12 hours prior. The Dec 9th snowfall that blanketed southern MI had models show us dry til a day before. Many areas that were affected by last Saturdays clipper expected nothing 2 days before, and totally shell-shocked the Cleveland area. This latest storm was a mega bust in the TX panhandle, areas forecast to see 12"+ saw 1-2". A lot of the less important things too, like several days the models had us totally clearing out when we remained totally overcast, and of course the drastic changes in the longrange each model run. The Cleveland situation was due to convergence/LES(globals don't handle well) and poor forecasting by NWS CLE. The hi-res models actually did well with it, as is to be expected in that situation. As for the current Plains blizzard, the ECMWF was without a doubt the the best model. It had places like Amarillo recieving little a few days out, while the others were showing higher totals. Changes are going to occur whether you're 7 days out or 12hrs out. Small changes in the environment can mean big changes in the overall pattern. The fact that you bring up drastic changes in the long range being a problem is just lol worthy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 The Cleveland situation was due to convergence/LES(globals don't handle well) and poor forecasting by NWS CLE. The hi-res models actually did well with it, as is to be expected in that situation. As for the current Plains blizzard, the ECMWF was without a doubt the the best model. It had places like Amarillo recieving little a few days out, while the others were showing higher totals. Changes are going to occur whether you're 7 days out or 12hrs out. Small changes in the environment can mean big changes in the overall pattern. The fact that you bring up drastic changes in the long range being a problem is just lol worthy. I did not say drastic changes in the LR were a problem. I agree they are lol worthy. I just threw it in about the LR to cover all my bases (since you like to contradict/troll anything I post) that short term, long term, whatever, the models have not been doing good. I lol myself when I see someone posting about the day 15 GFS, as if its not going to change 60 times over. Pretty much every bit of sensible weather that I have followed the past month has been poorly handled by most models (except HRRR). When twice in a week absolutely ZERO snow is forecast by ALL models a day out, and you get snow, be it "small changes in the environment" or whatever, its poor model performance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 The Cleveland situation was due to convergence/LES(globals don't handle well) and poor forecasting by NWS CLE. The hi-res models actually did well with it, as is to be expected in that situation. As for the current Plains blizzard, the ECMWF was without a doubt the the best model. It had places like Amarillo recieving little a few days out, while the others were showing higher totals. Changes are going to occur whether you're 7 days out or 12hrs out. Small changes in the environment can mean big changes in the overall pattern. The fact that you bring up drastic changes in the long range being a problem is just lol worthy. The euro isnt the only model, so apart from that being somewhat accurate with the current storm, the models have been horrendous. The euro has been losing/bringing back storms in the 3 day or less time frame this year more than I can remember in past years. I understand its a tough pattern and know the models arent perfect. More just backing up josh from your vague, kind of rude uneccessary comment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 The euro isnt the only model, so apart from that being somewhat accurate with the current storm, the models have been horrendous. The euro has been losing/bringing back storms in the 3 day or less time frame this year more than I can remember in past years. I understand its a tough pattern and know the models arent perfect. More just backing up josh from your vague, kind of rude uneccessary comment. Thanks. I dont expect the models to be perfect either. Or even want them to be (would take some of the fun out of it). Really, its no surprise that for day 15 one run the GFS will show torch like ridging then the next run its got a deep trough. I put zero faith in the extended GFS, look at it more or less just for the hell of it. But considering how bad the models have been in the short term, thats another story. And thats the simple comment I originally made. I dont follow other regions weather closely, so I can just comment specifically on short-term model performance in SE MI, and you can vouch that its been horrible. Hell how many times has DTX put right in the discussion that models are all over the place with something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Light rain falling here. Looks cool to see something falling out of the sky. Will say I love a chill rainy night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Thanks. I dont expect the models to be perfect either. Or even want them to be (would take some of the fun out of it). Really, its no surprise that for day 15 one run the GFS will show torch like ridging then the next run its got a deep trough. I put zero faith in the extended GFS, look at it more or less just for the hell of it. But considering how bad the models have been in the short term, thats another story. And thats the simple comment I originally made. I dont follow other regions weather closely, so I can just comment specifically on short-term model performance in SE MI, and you can vouch that its been horrible. Hell how many times has DTX put right in the discussion that models are all over the place with something Models and computers have a ways to go. I know I bring my grandfather allot... But he put it perfect one time. "wanna know what the weather is gonna be? Step outside". Perfect! Sometimes I wish I didn't care about the weather so much. Weird. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 No, not wrong. The Dec 5th snowfall that gave 1-4" to SE MI was not forecast to give any snow to anyone 12 hours prior. The Dec 9th snowfall that blanketed southern MI had models show us dry til a day before. Many areas that were affected by last Saturdays clipper expected nothing 2 days before, and totally shell-shocked the Cleveland area. This latest storm was a mega bust in the TX panhandle, areas forecast to see 12"+ saw 1-2". A lot of the less important things too, like several days the models had us totally clearing out when we remained totally overcast, and of course the drastic changes in the longrange each model run. The Cleveland situation was due to convergence/LES(globals don't handle well) and poor forecasting by NWS CLE. The hi-res models actually did well with it, as is to be expected in that situation. As for the current Plains blizzard, the ECMWF was without a doubt the the best model. It had places like Amarillo recieving little a few days out, while the others were showing higher totals. Changes are going to occur whether you're 7 days out or 12hrs out. Small changes in the environment can mean big changes in the overall pattern. The fact that you bring up drastic changes in the long range being a problem is just lol worthy. Just to add the Dec. 5th and 9th events in question... The Dec. 5th event was actually shown on numerous runs leading up to the event, though the significance(snowfall wise) did change. As for the Dec. 9th event,...It was handled best by the ECMWF, which only had one or two off runs that showed a weaker and more southern track... Otherwise it nailed the QPF and track...Unlike the NAM which didn't have the event for several runs or the GEM which had a "super clipper" for a run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 21, 2011 Author Share Posted December 21, 2011 0z NAM came NW with that lead wave, but like I said, it probably won't be enough for a lot of us. Just enough though to keep us coming back for subsequent model runs. central OH looks like it does pretty well though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 No, not wrong. The Dec 5th snowfall that gave 1-4" to SE MI was not forecast to give any snow to anyone 12 hours prior. The Dec 9th snowfall that blanketed southern MI had models show us dry til a day before. Many areas that were affected by last Saturdays clipper expected nothing 2 days before, and totally shell-shocked the Cleveland area. This latest storm was a mega bust in the TX panhandle, areas forecast to see 12"+ saw 1-2". A lot of the less important things too, like several days the models had us totally clearing out when we remained totally overcast, and of course the drastic changes in the longrange each model run. What you're saying about the December 9th and December 5th storms is not 100% true. For the December 5th storm especially, all the models 48 hours out had a full fledged winter storm along a straight line from Oklahoma to Michigan. It did back off considerably until bringing back only a shadow of what it previously had within the 12 hours, as you claim. As for December 9th and Saturday's clipper, they all showed up to some extent as well. Then in regards to the blizzard, that was due to a last minute NW trend (not unexpected depending on who you ask and what you were referencing). Places in the OK Panhandle did do relatively well, but as expected (depending on who you ask and what you reference) it was in a narrow band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 0z NAM came NW with that lead wave, but like I said, it probably won't be enough for a lot of us. Just enough though to keep us coming back for subsequent model runs. central OH looks like it does pretty well though. Torchy. Nothing would stick in Ohio with those temperatures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 0z NAM came NW with that lead wave, but like I said, it probably won't be enough for a lot of us. Just enough though to keep us coming back for subsequent model runs. central OH looks like it does pretty well though. I'd say more northern Ohio, there'd probably be mixing issues in Columbus on that run. I'd bet the clown maps have a narrow stripe of 2-4" snows through Akron. Of course, this is just one run of the NAM 2.5 days out, so I wouldn't hold my breath on that solution. Encouraging, no less, that there's some semblance of a storm starting to reappear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Also, FWIW, it all (heights, PV placement, trough orientation, temps, etc.) looks like the same crap we had to deal with on December 5th, just adjusted SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 0z NAM came NW with that lead wave, but like I said, it probably won't be enough for a lot of us. Just enough though to keep us coming back for subsequent model runs. central OH looks like it does pretty well though. That's about a 130 mile shift in one model run! Central IN towards Akron, OH would be good for snow given that run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Not much cold air til you hit PA. Clown map: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 That's about a 130 mile shift in one model run! Central IN towards Akron, OH would be good for snow given that run. It's not a good snow anywhere. You wouldn't have snow when surface temps are 40+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 It's not a good snow anywhere. You wouldn't have snow when surface temps are 40+ I guess that 850mb 0°C line is misleading then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 21, 2011 Author Share Posted December 21, 2011 I guess that 850mb 0°C line is misleading then. Yeah, I made the same mistake. We're getting into the period where the 850 0c line is a decent indicator of the RA/SN line, but it's not fool proof. Obviously there's a warm BL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Yeah, I made the same mistake. We're getting into the period where the 850 0c line is a decent indicator of the RA/SN line, but it's not fool proof. Obviously there's a warm BL. Could you imagine it being December and we are talking about warm boundary layer temperatures... Talk about a bizarre start to this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Could you imagine it being December and we are talking about warm boundary layer temperatures... Talk about a bizarre start to this winter. LOT mentioned the lake breeze yesterday that cooled off lakeside areas! Never heard that term in December! Crazy month! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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