KokomoWX Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 IND LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... ENSEMBLE DATA ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT LONG WAVE TROUGH THAT WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE ROCKIES WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT MORE INTO THE PLAINS/MIDWEST BY NEXT WEEKEND. TRENDS IN THE ENSEMBLES INDICATE THAT MORE MOISTURE FROM A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM MAY DRAWN FARTHER NORTH ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AS WELL AS INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR PHASING OF THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS OVER THE MIDWEST NEXT WEEKEND. AS A RESULT...ENSEMBLES SUGGEST THERE MAY SOME THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD. MODELS TEND TO PHASE STREAMS TOO EASILY IN THE LONGER RANGE...SO SOMEWHAT SKEPTICAL OF THESE SOLUTIONS AT THIS POINT. FOR NOW...PLANNING ON ADDING CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN ON THURSDAY...AND MIXED PRECIPITATION THURSDAY NIGHT TO COVER THE SOUTHERN STREAM POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTH. WILL ALSO EXPAND THE CHANCE POPS IN TIME TO COVER THE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT PERIODS TO COVER THE BEST PROBABLE TIMING OF THE UPPER TROUGH PASSAGE. THICKNESS PATTERNS AT THIS RANGE POINT TO MAINLY A SNOW THREAT IN THE NORTH...AND A MIXED THREAT SOUTH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 I wouldn't worry about to much...its only January. If we have started looking at what each 6z ensemble member shows at day 15-16 and picking out the worst case scenarios shown, paranoia is starting to set in . Although I do expect to hit 60F+ at some point in Jan/Feb, as well as below zero (ie: classic Nina). But the decided trend towards colder/snowier than normal weather will rule from mid-winter on (see Deedlers outlook). wrt the storm, still lots of disagreement but with a storm now on many of the models, potential is there for a postcard Christmas, and it is in fact a likelihood for someone. Who? That is the mystery. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 I know its the long range NAM but the end of the run looks mighty interesting... Here's the 12z, continues the same idea, but remember the NAM has been NOGAPS bad this year. Worth pointing out that the phase is pretty late, gulf connection won't be great no matter what. Anytime i start seeing that kind of east/west orientated convection across the southern states, red flags go up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 If we have started looking at what each 6z ensemble member shows at day 15-16 and picking out the worst case scenarios shown, paranoia is starting to set in . Although I do expect to hit 60F+ at some point in Jan/Feb, as well as below zero (ie: classic Nina). But the decided trend towards colder/snowier than normal weather will rule from mid-winter on (see Deedlers outlook). wrt the storm, still lots of disagreement but with a storm now on many of the models, potential is there for a postcard Christmas, and it is in fact a likelihood for someone. Who? That is the mystery. Toronto hit close to 60F in January 1950, as did Ottawa. I have a feeling that we may be in for a similar winter due to the lack of blocking, as well as the La nina. December 1949 experienced similar conditions according to Don Sutherland. February 1950 turned out well though! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 12z non-NAM runs around the corner, do they keep hope alive or continue the doom and gloom? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Best guess.................... Doom and Gloom Although wouldnt be surprised to see the GFS show something interesting again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Wake me up when December ends............... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 12z GFS spits out an inch or so, major moisture problems with poor spacing between waves and crap gulf return. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 12z GFS spits out an inch or so, major moisture problems with poor spacing between waves and crap gulf return. Yeah, eliminate that initial wave and we are talking an entirely different ball game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Yeah, eliminate that initial wave and we are talking an entirely different ball game. If only it were that easy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 If only it were that easy. True that, however its several days away so who knows what will happen, not that I am implying that the initial wave will vanish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 12z GFS is a mood setter...which it essentially was with 0z run. 1-2" would be just fine by me. Can't expect much more than that at this point with this disorganized mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 12z GFS is a mood setter...which it essentially was with 0z run. 1-2" would be just fine by me. Can't expect much more than that at this point with this disorganized mess. yeah i'd totally take 1-2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 yeah i'd totally take 1-2" I think that's how its going to be the rest of the winter..bunch of 1-2" events with a couple 4"+ events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 I think that's how its going to be the rest of the winter..bunch of 1-2" events with a couple 4"+ events. In other words, normal winter climo? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 19, 2011 Author Share Posted December 19, 2011 True that, however its several days away so who knows what will happen, not that I am implying that the initial wave will vanish. Things is, without that initial wave, I could see this whole storm be very strong, but very warm. I'll take my pittance of Christmas slush at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 In other words, normal winter climo? i hope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 19, 2011 Author Share Posted December 19, 2011 Again, really crappy maps, but it appears the 12z GGEM is devoid of any storm. Just a broad, flat trough producing a bunch of turd waves that slip OTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Toronto hit close to 60F in January 1950, as did Ottawa. I have a feeling that we may be in for a similar winter due to the lack of blocking, as well as the La nina. December 1949 experienced similar conditions according to Don Sutherland. February 1950 turned out well though! Detroits warmest January temp on record was 67F on Jan 25, 1950. Ann Arbor hit 72F that day, just beyond incredible. That winter saw probably one of the most extreme temp roller coasters ever. Temps near 60 on Dec 11-12, then on Dec 15 the high was 20F. Back into the mid-upper 50s on Dec 20-22. Temps spiked to the 55-60F range once again on Jan 3-4 before plunging to 4F on Jan 8th but nearing 60F again on the 10th. On the 11th lows were already back into the teens with highs below freezing, then back into the low 60s on the 13th! Lows in the single digits were once again felt Jan 18-20 before temps soared to the upper 50s on the 24th and the aforementioned 67 on Jan 25th. It was back in the low teens by morning of the 27th. Though there were some days in the 40s in Feb, overall it was much more wintry. Detroit still saw 42.8" of snow that winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 I think that's how its going to be the rest of the winter..bunch of 1-2" events with a couple 4"+ events. I'm just baffled with the majority of these predictions. Your a smart guy and in fact the majority of the patrons on this forum are..but in a hobby or craft where 2 weeks is la la land, it makes no sense to bank everything you got on a hunch. Climo is your crystal ball not the fooking GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 12z GFS spits out an inch or so, major moisture problems with poor spacing between waves and crap gulf return. Bufkit spits out 4" here using 10:1 ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 19, 2011 Author Share Posted December 19, 2011 Very few of the 12z GFS ensemble members support the OP model with regards to that Christmas Eve wave. They're either more robust with that lead wave (but still a miss for virtually all of us, except for some of the OH posters) or they hold energy back and create a post-Christmas storm, but still, a miss to our east verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Very few of the 12z GFS ensemble members support the OP model with regards to that Christmas Eve wave. They're either more robust with that lead wave (but still a miss for virtually all of us, except for some of the OH posters) or they hold energy back and create a post-Christmas storm, but still, a miss to our east verbatim. Geez, you dont have to shout j/k GFS just caught onto this at 18z, if its going to happen, ensembles will catchup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 19, 2011 Author Share Posted December 19, 2011 Geez, you dont have to shout j/k GFS just caught onto this at 18z, if its going to happen, ensembles will catchup. I'm having trouble with this skin. Sometimes it appears though the font is super small so I feel I have to adjust the size. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Same crap happened in 2002 and 2004. We made them eat those words then. Let's do it again now. I'd like a repeat of that kindly you know the mood wanting snow is getting grim when 1-3" makes people want to go FINALLY!!! heck I'd just like to see some flakes, that's not mixed with rain! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Fact: the overly optimistic posts are just as annoying as the overly pessimistic posts. Fact #2: both are best suited for the December thread. Back on topic: Dr. No rolling out now, is he going to kill off our mood setter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 At least there is a potential storm to watch for the end of the week. I'd be very happy with a 1-3" snowfall! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 The wise choice here would be to roll with the ECMWF and ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 19, 2011 Author Share Posted December 19, 2011 The wise choice here would be to roll with the ECMWF and ensembles. 12z looks pretty crappy through 120. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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