buckeyefan1 Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 So hard not to comment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 Is there any correlation to winter in the southern hemisphere and the northern hemisphere? can't say that I have ever seen anyone post any information on this. My guess would be no but i was just wondering if anyone had any info on it. One I know of. I've done exhaustive research on this and can say with 100% confidence that they never occur at the same time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 Has anyone found data to suggest what kind of Winter happens depending on the number and intensity of tropical cyclones in the months before? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 I'm not talking about you. I'm talking about someone who isn't a professional met. You're fine. I've got boatloads of sunshine. Have some. EDIT: To keep this on topic, it seems that a coupld of forecasts are giving east TN a bit more snow. I'll believe it when I see it. We either get shafted with very little snow like last winter, get nickel and dimed while everyone else gets the big snow storms, or get one or two storms and that's it. If Feb. is shaping up to be cold then we'll probably be getting nickel and dimed with nw flow events. At least I have the mountains to see some real snow if I want them. I did that last winter a few times and thoroughly enjoyed it. LOL THOSE PEOPLE provided evidence to support their forecasts. not like the covered their eyes and made a winter forecast with pen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 LOL THOSE PEOPLE provided evidence to support their forecasts. not like the covered their eyes and made a winter forecast with pen. I'm not talking about people in the plural sense. I'm talking about one particular person who never provided a basis for his forecast. Check my signature to see who I'm talking about Has anyone found data to suggest what kind of Winter happens depending on the number and intensity of tropical cyclones in the months before? I don't think that's a good correlation to make because you can have very warm ocean heat content and low activity. Warm oceans simply aren't enough to get a lot of cyclones, and it really is matching a favorable pattern with high oceanic heat content and the position of a tropical wave, thunderstorm, or some other catalyst to get convection firing. I even wonder if trying to find analog years is a good idea to predicting winter in the southeast because one good cold snap or one good snowstorm will skew the records - and you just need a quick change to that pattern or one good system to move through like March 1993 to change the averages. I'd like to see studies showing the accuracy of analog patterns to seasonal forecasts before I would latch onto them - even though they appear to be the trendy thing to do. A lot of people tried to do analogs last winter and it simply didn't work. Anyone can also make a guess, but I do applaud those who put in detailed research into their forecasts and show their work - even if they happen to be wrong. It's more than I can do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 I'm not talking about people in the plural sense. I'm talking about one particular person who never provided a basis for his forecast. Check my signature to see who I'm talking about Let me repeat this just once for you since you seem to be having some memory issues.....he never made a forecast.....period. It's amazing that you are still bu**hurt over this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 http://firsthandweat...cast#more-13094 *not an endorsement. Justing posting it in here* Read at your own risk Mark, I approve of this post!!! And especially this forecast.... A snowman just saying! lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 Snippet from Australian Bureau of Meteorology... Tropical Pacific Ocean indicators have remained close to El Niño thresholds over the past fortnight. While tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) approached or exceeded El Niño values during the past fortnight, other indicators such as the trade winds and tropical cloud patterns have yet to show typical El Niño signatures. Regardless of the ENSO state, the tropical Pacific remains warmer than average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 Snippet from Australian Bureau of Meteorology... Tropical Pacific Ocean indicators have remained close to El Niño thresholds over the past fortnight. While tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) approached or exceeded El Niño values during the past fortnight, other indicators such as the trade winds and tropical cloud patterns have yet to show typical El Niño signatures. Regardless of the ENSO state, the tropical Pacific remains warmer than average. This all points in the direction of the highly coveted weak El Nino for cold SE winters. A weak El Nino in combo with a prior La Nina gives the SE US its best chance of any ENSO phase for a cold winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted August 30, 2012 Share Posted August 30, 2012 Snippet from Australian Bureau of Meteorology... Tropical Pacific Ocean indicators have remained close to El Niño thresholds over the past fortnight. While tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) approached or exceeded El Niño values during the past fortnight, other indicators such as the trade winds and tropical cloud patterns have yet to show typical El Niño signatures. Regardless of the ENSO state, the tropical Pacific remains warmer than average. And any time you can work the word 'fortnight' into a winter discussion, you know it's gonna be a good winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted September 1, 2012 Share Posted September 1, 2012 I'm not talking about you. I'm talking about someone who isn't a professional met. You're fine. I've got boatloads of sunshine. Have some. EDIT: To keep this on topic, it seems that a coupld of forecasts are giving east TN a bit more snow. I'll believe it when I see it. We either get shafted with very little snow like last winter, get nickel and dimed while everyone else gets the big snow storms, or get one or two storms and that's it. If Feb. is shaping up to be cold then we'll probably be getting nickel and dimed with nw flow events. At least I have the mountains to see some real snow if I want them. I did that last winter a few times and thoroughly enjoyed it. Funny how almost every winter he seems to be more accurate then almost anyone else on this form isn't it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted September 1, 2012 Share Posted September 1, 2012 Funny how almost every winter he seems to be more accurate then almost anyone else on this form isn't it? Some say he gave no forecast. I have no idea about what he said for previous winters, but he does have immunity here. Even JB has found a nut sometimes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted September 1, 2012 Share Posted September 1, 2012 Well no need in throwing stones at whoever. Still a long way to go before the real fun starts. Looking forward to a much more interesting winter than last. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted September 2, 2012 Share Posted September 2, 2012 Well no need in throwing stones at whoever. Still a long way to go before the real fun starts. Looking forward to a much more interesting winter than last. I'm not sure if this is relevant or not, but the plants appear to be early this year in terms of what they usually do for the fall in the higher elevations of the Smoky Mountains. I've also seen a lot more foraging by the animals lately to the point where they're not skittish of humans as they usually are. I've done a few high elevation hikes in the last 2 weeks and some leaves are already starting to change color above 5500'. I'm not sure if this is because spring was really early this year in the mountains and in the valley or if nature is preparing for what's to come later on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted September 2, 2012 Share Posted September 2, 2012 I'm not sure if this is relevant or not, but the plants appear to be early this year in terms of what they usually do for the fall in the higher elevations of the Smoky Mountains. I've also seen a lot more foraging by the animals lately to the point where they're not skittish of humans as they usually are. I've done a few high elevation hikes in the last 2 weeks and some leaves are already starting to change color above 5500'. I'm not sure if this is because spring was really early this year in the mountains and in the valley or if nature is preparing for what's to come later on. Might be related to some of the lows the last couple weeks. I live around 3500 feet and last week or the week before we had our first low in the 40s of the season. 49 to be exact with several morning in the low 50s. Dogwoods changing already were I live. Good signs all around I think. Looks like first real shot of Fall weather in the middle of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted September 2, 2012 Share Posted September 2, 2012 I'm not sure if this is relevant or not, but the plants appear to be early this year in terms of what they usually do for the fall in the higher elevations of the Smoky Mountains. I've also seen a lot more foraging by the animals lately to the point where they're not skittish of humans as they usually are. I've done a few high elevation hikes in the last 2 weeks and some leaves are already starting to change color above 5500'. I'm not sure if this is because spring was really early this year in the mountains and in the valley or if nature is preparing for what's to come later on. I bet it's a coincidence but I've seen some pissed off squirrels too. Foraging like insane squirrels. I also saw some very slight hints of leaf change on my way up to the mountains of Virginia this weekend. Winter is coming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted September 4, 2012 Share Posted September 4, 2012 Looks like we are headed more and more towards weak nino which would be good for our region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted September 4, 2012 Share Posted September 4, 2012 That ridiculous climate long range model is showing an active mainly wet deal. If only 1400+ hour forecasts could be trusted! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted September 4, 2012 Share Posted September 4, 2012 Funny how leaves on some of the trees around here are yellow and orange already lol. Wind blowing leaves everywhere around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted September 4, 2012 Share Posted September 4, 2012 Funny how leaves on some of the trees around here are yellow and orange already lol. Wind blowing leaves everywhere around here. Im beginning to wonder if the coloration being reported is a combination of early spring and stress from the drought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rosie Posted September 4, 2012 Share Posted September 4, 2012 My flowering cherry has dropped all leaves, poplars not far behind. Acorns are falling and brown sambos are crawling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted September 5, 2012 Share Posted September 5, 2012 My flowering cherry has dropped all leaves, poplars not far behind. Acorns are falling and brown sambos are crawling. I'll probably regret asking but what the heck is a brown sambo? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted September 5, 2012 Share Posted September 5, 2012 I'll probably regret asking but what the heck is a brown sambo? I tried to Google it and I'm not seeing much in the way of results.. be afraid... please let it be an insect or plant.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spidyr2k Posted September 5, 2012 Share Posted September 5, 2012 Wooly worm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted September 5, 2012 Share Posted September 5, 2012 I tried to Google it and I'm not seeing much in the way of results.. be afraid... please let it be an insect or plant.. I Googled it too. NADA. If tiger butter gets mentioned I'm outta here. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rosie Posted September 5, 2012 Share Posted September 5, 2012 Wooly worm? Yep, around here they call them brown sambos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCWX Posted September 5, 2012 Share Posted September 5, 2012 Im beginning to wonder if the coloration being reported is a combination of early spring and stress from the drought. Thats what I was thinking. Minus the drought part. Here it's been so wet it's not even funny. I went to dig a hole in my yard for a tree.... hit water at 20 inches. Dug a bit deeper, then went in for lunch, cam back out an hour later.... hole had started to fill it self in like at the beach. I think the water table is a bit high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Penland Posted September 6, 2012 Share Posted September 6, 2012 While we're on the subject of woolly worms and leaves.... One of the sayings around here is that a foggy August means a snowy winter. I didn't record a single fog last year. Quit counting after nine this year. Had 6 the year of the Christmas/Jan/Feb snows. Just folklore but accurate for 2 years running (possibly longer, didn't keep count before then). Also, the Old Farmers Almanac, Southern Edition has their forecast out now and its similar to the one posted by Bastardi earlier. They are basing it on 50% less solar activity this year than last, probable el nino, and cold phase PDO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted September 6, 2012 Share Posted September 6, 2012 It also says we should have a hurricane threat next week SEPTEMBER 2012: temperature 70° (4° below avg.); precipitation 1.5" (3" below avg.); Sep 1-9: T-storms, then sunny, cool; Sep 10-15: Hurricane threat; Sep 16-22: Sunny, then t-storms, cool; Sep 23-28: Sunny; cool, then warm; Sep 29-30: T-storms. OCTOBER 2012: temperature 60° (4° below avg.); precipitation 3" (1" below avg.); Oct 1-8: Showers, then sunny, cool; Oct 9-11: T-storms, seasonable; Oct 12-16: Sunny, cool; Oct 17-22: T-storms, then sunny, cool; Oct 23-28: Showers, varying temperatures; Oct 29-31: Sunny, cool. Annual Weather Summary: November 2012 to October 2013 Winter temperatures will be below normal, with below-normal rainfall and near- or above-normal snowfall. The coldest periods will be in early January and early and mid-February. The greatest snow and ice threats will be in late December, early and mid-January, and early and mid-February. April and May will be rainier than normal, with near-normal temperatures. Summer will be drier and slightly hotter than normal, with the hottest periods in late July and mid-August. Expect hurricane threats in the first week of June and in mid-October. September and October will be slightly warmer than normal, with near-normal rainfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a5ehren Posted September 6, 2012 Share Posted September 6, 2012 Funny how leaves on some of the trees around here are yellow and orange already lol. Wind blowing leaves everywhere around here. Yeah, my tulip trees are dropping leaves and cones already. Very strange. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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