strongwxnc Posted August 19, 2012 Share Posted August 19, 2012 http://firsthandweather.com/blog/all-posts/firsthand-weathers-20122013-preliminary-winter-forecast#more-13094 *not an endorsement. Justing posting it in here* Read at your own risk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted August 19, 2012 Share Posted August 19, 2012 http://firsthandweat...cast#more-13094 *not an endorsement. Justing posting it in here* Read at your own risk Bastardi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted August 19, 2012 Share Posted August 19, 2012 Bastardi Several mets like this winter including Robert not just Bastardi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 19, 2012 Share Posted August 19, 2012 1) Thanks Greg! Let's hope we have another cold weak Nino winter that follows a Nina winter! If it is like 1951-2, let's hope we still get that one major snow like it had. 2) Garrett's forecast: Despite what at first one might tend to dismiss as a Bastardi cold winter hype type of map, I actually think that Garrett Bastardi is putting out a very reasonable forecast based on this winter likely being a weak Nino that would follow a Nina winter. I have criticized his dad on these BB's in the past for being too E US cold wintercentric although to be fair he seemed to get away from that about 5 years ago. My post from yesterday in this thread would suggest that the type of map his son put out would be pretty reasonable. Also, just like myself, he notes that 1951-2 was the only warm analog. Now, unlike him, I won't just throw it out because of it being too weak and it being a warm outlier. I think it should still be included as a reminder of what could still occur should there be a +NAO and -PDO. Also, Garrett includes strong Nino's like 2009-10 and 1957-8 that I didn't consider directly. I would have put in more weak Nino analogs like 1968-9 and 1963-4. Based on JB's tweets, it would appear that his son put this out without the direct help of his dad fwiw. Of course, we don't really know for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted August 19, 2012 Share Posted August 19, 2012 Based on JB's tweets, it would appear that his son put this out without the direct help of his dad fwiw. Of course, we don't really know for sure. Time for a folksy quote. The acorn doesn't fall very far from the oak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted August 19, 2012 Share Posted August 19, 2012 Like father, like son. Garrett is just as bad as Joe when it comes to forecasting and hyping. They even use the same U.S. backgrounds on MSpaint because they're too dumb to use something like Gimp to make images that even look remotely professional. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted August 19, 2012 Share Posted August 19, 2012 Like father, like son. Garrett is just as bad as Joe when it comes to forecasting and hyping. They even use the same U.S. backgrounds on MSpaint because they're too dumb to use something like Gimp to make images that even look remotely professional. That's probably true....BUT, Larry isn't one that I would consider a hypster, and based on the data he has shared, the colder than average forecasts may not be too far off base this year. You do make a compelling case in your outlook, though. As usual, there are a wide range of possibilities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted August 20, 2012 Share Posted August 20, 2012 That's probably true....BUT, Larry isn't one that I would consider a hypster, and based on the data he has shared, the colder than average forecasts may not be too far off base this year. You do make a compelling case in your outlook, though. As usual, there are a wide range of possibilities. I agree that Larry is good when it comes to collecting stats together. While Garrett's forecast and Larry's stats are quite valid, I disagree with some of the final analogs like 1976 and 2009. I don't have my data on hand at the moment, but when I get back on my computer I can argue why I don't like those analogs. I have a harder time arguing 1976 but with 2009 there was a solar min that helped with near record or record blocking. That is something that is unlikely to occur this winter, but it is obviously too early to know for sure. What kills me the most isn't the temperature forecast as much as the snowfall forecast, since that is a whole nother level of difficulty. You can have an interesting and cold winter without much snowfall in the Southeast, and at this range it is hard to nail down a snow forecast without all of the precious Oct/Nov data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted August 20, 2012 Share Posted August 20, 2012 I agree that Larry is good when it comes to collecting stats together. While Garrett's forecast and Larry's stats are quite valid, I disagree with some of the final analogs like 1976 and 2009. I don't have my data on hand at the moment, but when I get back on my computer I can argue why I don't like those analogs. I have a harder time arguing 1976 but with 2009 there was a solar min that helped with near record or record blocking. That is something that is unlikely to occur this winter, but it is obviously too early to the know for sure. What kills me the most isn't the temperature forecast as much as the snowfall forecast, since that is a whole nother level of difficulty. You can have an interesting and cold winter without much snowfall in the Southeast, and at this range it is hard to nail down a snow forecast without all of the precious Oct/Nov data. That is very true. And as you say, forecasting snowfall anomalies is a very difficult thing to do....for any region, let alone this part of the country. One well-timed storm, which frankly can occur any Winter, can obliterate the average for a given area. However, if one is confident in predicting temps that are below normal and precip that is near/above normal, I'd be ok with a forecast of above normal snowfall. If I was going to issue a Winter forecast, I probably would just stick to temps and precip and let the snow fall where it falls. Either way, LR forecasting is extremely difficult, so kudos to those who take the time to research and put a forecast together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted August 20, 2012 Share Posted August 20, 2012 well already picking up snow contracts so we shall see what happens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mclean02 Posted August 20, 2012 Share Posted August 20, 2012 yeah cant wait to see how it turns out cant be worst then last winter !! bring on the fall tried of the heat lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Suncat Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 Dang! It looks like Triangle region is split down the middle with snow to the west and ice to the east. If this verifies it could be a lot of fun driving of 440 or 540! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 At least we know there is about a 99% chance that this upcoming winter will be better than last. I mean, I don't see how it's possible to have a winter worse than last winter. So, even if we have a horrible winter, it is likely to be much better than last. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GramaxRefugee Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 Thanks for posting that FHW outlook. I read most of it, and I wonder what it would do to their analog study if they took out the 2009-10 numbers. That's a big winter to weight so heavily. (I'm thinking midatlantic mostly) Reading their website; it looks like they're mostly youngsters. Keeping that in mind, I admire their pluck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 At least we know there is about a 99% chance that this upcoming winter will be better than last. I mean, I don't see how it's possible to have a winter worse than last winter. So, even if we have a horrible winter, it is likely to be much better than last. How about this. Several heavy snows blanket much of the southeast. In all of them, the rain-snow line is 10 miles north of you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 How about this. Several heavy snows blanket much of the southeast. In all of them, the rain-snow line is 10 miles north of you. That would be bad. I thought the same thing. A horrible Winter to me is one where there are virtually no snow/ice threats and virtually no snow/ice. And there have been several of those Winters over the last couple of decades. On the other hand, I do like cold weather, even without snow, so I understand the point that last Winter was exceptionally bad....assuming it's not just about the snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 How about this. Several heavy snows blanket much of the southeast. In all of them, the rain-snow line is 10 miles north of you. Story of the last few years here in CLT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 That is a horrendous forecast! I'm sorry to be so blunt but it awful. Put all your chips on -AO. First you can punt the warmth out West with the cool Pac waters up and down the entire North American coast. The northern Plains and Midwest have a good chance of being warm in Nino ceteris paribus. The Southeast might come in cold. The Northeast might be stormy. No NAO and no dice. And a battle zone in the Mid South and Tenn Valley? Good luck without cold. Not enough evidence to forecast al that winter precip. Maybe just rainy. Unbelievable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 What kills me the most isn't the temperature forecast as much as the snowfall forecast, since that is a whole nother level of difficulty. You can have an interesting and cold winter without much snowfall in the Southeast, and at this range it is hard to nail down a snow forecast without all of the precious Oct/Nov data. Yes...the hype machine is in full swing in mid-August ...not that there is not hope for a decent winter but forecasting the extreme winter at this point.... There is not much one can be basing a forecast on other than hope and loose ties to ENSO at this stage, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 Yes...the hype machine is in full swing in mid-August ...not that there is not hope for a decent winter but forecasting the extreme winter at this point.... There is not much one can be basing a forecast on other than hope and loose ties to ENSO at this stage, August Shmaugust. JB has been hyping this winter, and the next for that matter, for the last 2 years! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 Dang! It looks like Triangle region is split down the middle with snow to the west and ice to the east. If this verifies it could be a lot of fun driving of 440 or 540! Seems the Triangle is always on the line for either a big storm or nothing at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 August Shmaugust. JB has been hyping this winter, and the next for that matter, for the last 2 years! No doubt about that! We will never hear the end of it if he ends up being correct.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 No doubt about that! We will never hear the end of it if he ends up being correct.... actually all the way to 2016!! LOL!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 No doubt about that! We will never hear the end of it if he ends up being correct.... Well someone else who is very unpopular around here forecasted a warm winter last winter. However, he never gave any rhyme or reason to his forecast. So anybody can guess, and sometimes they can be right, but it doesn't mean they know what they're talking about Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 Well someone else who is very unpopular around here forecasted a warm winter last winter. However, he never gave any rhyme or reason to his forecast. So anybody can guess, and sometimes they can be right, but it doesn't mean they know what they're talking about Ahhhh....Mr Sunshine is back....I don't sell my services to the general public either.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 Ahhhh....Mr Sunshine is back....I don't sell my services to the general public either.... So hard not to comment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chattownsnow Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 Is there any correlation to winter in the southern hemisphere and the northern hemisphere? can't say that I have ever seen anyone post any information on this. My guess would be no but i was just wondering if anyone had any info on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 Ahhhh....Mr Sunshine is back....I don't sell my services to the general public either.... I'm not talking about you. I'm talking about someone who isn't a professional met. You're fine. I've got boatloads of sunshine. Have some. EDIT: To keep this on topic, it seems that a coupld of forecasts are giving east TN a bit more snow. I'll believe it when I see it. We either get shafted with very little snow like last winter, get nickel and dimed while everyone else gets the big snow storms, or get one or two storms and that's it. If Feb. is shaping up to be cold then we'll probably be getting nickel and dimed with nw flow events. At least I have the mountains to see some real snow if I want them. I did that last winter a few times and thoroughly enjoyed it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 So hard not to comment I am sure Matty Ice will be happy to give Cam some seats to watch us play in New Orleans next February.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 In Ga. it only takes one good storm to make, and break the average, and it doesn't require a cold, or wet winter for that to happen. Just takes timing. Of course, I'm talking sleet/snow here. To me, a great winter must also contain bitter cold, and to be truely great must have sleet. It was cold a few days last winter, and wet some too. Just didn't have any timing. Even last winter, bad as it was, could have been great, frozenwise in Ga. with a little bit of that good timing, lol. Of course, blocking and energetic fronts, help immensely, but we get those all the time without anything frozen coming with it. When Joe, or anyone else can predict timing in Ga. I'll be on board quick. For my money Robert, a week or two out, is as solid as anybody can be with the crazy weather around here And beyond that it is a crap shoot. Our fine group of southern mets are great at telling us when it most likely won't happen, or it actually could, which is big when the model says yes it will, and we get all giddy, forgetting that in Ga. most likely it won't. One caveat.....when ColdRain says something is coming, even though he resides in the far north of Carolina, where it sleets/snows all the time, I will listen, everytime, though I've yet to see him do long range He epitimizes the fourth, and most nebulous factor, along with his weather knowledge. Rain, cold, timing...and mojo, lol. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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