The 2012-2013 Winter Outlook Thread

[SoCoWx]

Here is a question for some knowledgeable people. Do periods of a negative north atlantic oscillation in summer correlate to winter either way good or bad? One thing is for certain the pattern this summer is nothing like it was last summer leading into a terrible winter. That alone gives me hope.

I can't answer this fully. But from what I've learned in my years on weather forums, if there is blocking in the Summer, there usually isn't blocking or as much blocking in the Fall, then blocking commonly returns for Winter. Now, how strong of a correlation there is is questionable.

I have heard (for those of you that follow the LRC method of forecasting) that the 2011/2012 cycle is finally collapsing and the new 2012/2013 pattern is starting to evolve. That alone is promising. The features that torched us have broken down.

[rduwx]

What's up SE crew...Is it winter yet? I'll be checking in every once in a while but I'm about ready to track some winter storms. It seems like it's been 2 years since I've tracked a winter storm. Oh, that's right it has been 2 years since we didn't track anything last winter.

[Mr Bob]

Here is a question for some knowledgeable people. Do periods of a negative north atlantic oscillation in summer correlate to winter either way good or bad? One thing is for certain the pattern this summer is nothing like it was last summer leading into a terrible winter. That alone gives me hope.

Great post (as usual) from don regarding this in the main forum....rather than rehash....

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/34633-medium-range-discussion-summer-2012/page__st__175#entry1673284

[nrgjeff]

Here is a question for some knowledgeable people. Do periods of a negative north atlantic oscillation in summer correlate to winter either way good or bad? One thing is for certain the pattern this summer is nothing like it was last summer leading into a terrible winter. That alone gives me hope.

Like Don's post that Mr. Bob links above. Don't forget to check out all of Don's mid-range forecasts also on the Main Forum.

And here is from my own post #164 on this thread. Did not break it down by ENSO so my thoughts are not mutually exclusive of Don's. In fact there is agreement for the second half of winter. Could we get a -AO?

Sure. There has been debate about whether winter AO matches the previous summer. A look at the monthly data shows very low correlation. What the monthly data does show is streaks - 6 to 9 months at a time. If the AO flips in early summer, it can be the same for much of summer into the next winter. If the AO flips in spring, then flips again in fall, no match. I prefer looking at the streaks. Worked great last year. We bears (3-4 of us) called the mild winter in the face of brutal criticism.

This year the AO started to average positive in late spring. A brief pull-back as I type is helping ease the heat, but I forecast the +AO streak to continue (mean) into early winter. Now it could be close. The +flip was late spring. If we get a -flip middle to late winter then it could end colder. I'm actually starting to lean that way. Skiers wishcast? But my main point is I strongly favor forecasting the streak of the AO over the summer/winter deal.

The AO is more predictable than the NAO, but one would expect the AO to influence the NAO. Bottom line: Watch the AO trend in fall. The trend should be our friend. Forecasting friend, not necessarily the weenie's friend but we'll see.

Finally, Virginia Hippie mentions the LRC above. It has been reliable. Some folks complain the LRC is a black box; however, I figure they do have a system that they just can't overwhelm the casual viewer with. Notice the LRC cycle period is about the same length as the average MJO cycle. Plus I like the persistence background of the LRC with the cycles on top.

[WilkesboroDude]

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/snow-for-i-95-corridor-northeast-winter/69820

[calculus1]

http://www.accuweath...st-winter/69820

OK, I know Accuweather loves to hype the snow for their big, east-coast, I-95 subscribers; but still, I can't help but get a little more excited about the coming winter after their national printing of that map. That map is just feeding the fire, stoking the flames, etc. of what the majority of those of us on this forum would love to see become a reality.

Now, I'll sit back and attempt to wait for the sensible, well-thought-out forecasts that our knowledgeable mets on this site will provide in due time.

[SN_Lover]

http://www.accuweath...st-winter/69820

I HOPE this plays out Still no telling how the teleconnections will play out :/

[WilkesboroDude]

Their maps last Winter...

[Jon]

Great plan. Oh, and see you on here at 1am, 2 days before the first real threat is forecast to arrive.

Who am I kidding, you're right....See you then! :weenie:

[DixieBlizzard]

http://www.accuweath...st-winter/69820

Beautiful weather porn.

[CAD_Wedge_NC]

http://www.accuweath...st-winter/69820

Our ski resorts would love for this map to verify, along with the rest of us. Here's hoping for a banner season.

[LithiaWx]

The euro sip ensembles system went out to NDJ and it looked pretty good. The best height anomalies where in AK with a nice ridge there. Not much of a -NAO, but srn Canada was colder than normal with a few cooler temp contours into the northeast.

Very nice pacific...if I was being nitpicky, I'd have the ridge there about 200 miles east, but overall thats a very good -EPO/+PNA look. Too bad we can't see February where the pattern histroically in Ninos is the most favorable.

Yeah gotta wait a month for that, but I was pleased. That cool signal in srn Canada was nice to see in a Nino. That would argue for my high pressure fetish branching out into Ontario.

The usual caveats apply with long range, but as we get closer and the models improve..it's certainly not a bad thing.

From the New England sub-forums.

[jburns]

http://www.accuweath...st-winter/69820

Even if it verifies I don't look to do so well. I am under the letter"O" in snowfall which I assume is, by definition, the hole in the precip.

[Ellinwood]

Finally, Virginia Hippie mentions the LRC above. It has been reliable. Some folks complain the LRC is a black box; however, I figure they do have a system that they just can't overwhelm the casual viewer with. Notice the LRC cycle period is about the same length as the average MJO cycle. Plus I like the persistence background of the LRC with the cycles on top.

I looked into the LRC a bit and from what I've seen, though anecdotally it seems to have some correlation with the upper-level patterns, the surface weather during these cycles can be quite different when patterns are forecast to be repeated. Lezak's winter forecast for last winter did not fare too well for most of Canada and the eastern half of the US temperature-wise (his precip was also quite off): http://lrcweather.co...:blog&Itemid=29 His summer 2012 forecast ended up doing well... towards the end of May he predicted a hot summer across the US. However, by that time a hot summer seemed fairly obvious, regardless of whether or not people used the LRC to make their forecasts.

I have a few issues with the LRC, one being that there has been no formal analysis to determine how strong a correlation the LRC has. Second, some/most of the advocates of LRC are quick to show you successful forecasts of the LRC, but analyses on where the LRC fails and why it failed are sparse at best. Later in his blog (linked above), Lezak does a post-analysis of why 2011-12 was "the winter that wasn't" via the AO, NAO and jet stream, but he failed to analyze why the LRC method failed WRT the winter forecast. I'm all for creating and testing new theories, but if you can't perform a rigorous analyses to find statistical correlations (say with 500mb heights), then it's just hearsay. Another issue is there has been no published research paper discussing the LRC (of any kind... not just peer-reviewed) since Lezak started to develop his theory in the 1980s. That's over 20 years for him or someone else to do a formal, statistical analysis on the LRC, and there's nothing.

Maybe I just haven't dug deep enough, but those have been my observations on the LRC since someone told me about it last winter. I would like to hear other opinions about the LRC from those who have actually studied and used the LRC in their forecasting to get a better idea of just how good or bad this theory actually is. There's no doubt that there are natural cycles in the atmosphere on all sorts of different time scales, and the LRC may be on to one of them, but the science behind why the LRC works or doesn't work and its correlation to North American weather just isn't fleshed out enough (which is concerning considering how long it's been around).

You mentioned that the LRC has a similar time scale as the MJO... why not just use the MJO to make the forecast instead of the LRC then? Is one more accurate than the other?

Of course, some of the points mentioned above have been discussed already in years past (I'm sure you'll recognize this thread: http://www.stormtrack.org/forum/showthread.php?18518-What-do-you-all-think-of-these-quot-recurring-cycle-quot-theories-with-weather )

Apologies for the long and skeptical post, but I just can't fathom why some mets utilize it in their forecast given the lack of research and verification of it. If the theory by itself does add value over climo more so than the conventional teleconnections and forecasting tools, why are so few mets using it and why have many mets not even heard about it? Why hasn't a rigorous analysis and verification of the LRC been done? I'm not trying to confront you individually with all of these questions... I'd like to hear all mets' opinions on the matter.

[nrgjeff]

Last winter was one of about two he's missed. The other miss was not as severe. So he is 5/7. I've been watching for several years since I'm originally from KC. Another TV met in Joplin collaborates. Even if it is not peer reviewed, it is important for operational forecasting. Ditto for lots of other methods used by energy forecasters. Peer review is important, but I'm not a high brow type either. I would think any met would look at any theory we could get our hands on, especially those of us held accountable financially. Just another tool in the mix...

[WilkesboroDude]

Even if it verifies I don't look to do so well. I am under the letter"O" in snowfall which I assume is, by definition, the hole in the precip.

Or we can look at it the other way...North Carolina was given the "No" on that map.

[WilkesboroDude]

It's hot now, but forecasters see a big winter coming

http://www.msnbc.msn...06#.UCxrYKllRcQ

Experts say some parts of the country could see large snowstorms and lots of rain

Using this summer’s weather as a template, Pastelok looked for what happened in the winter in other years when a weak to moderate El Nino formed. He found a similar pattern in 2002/2003 and 1953/1954.

In those years, storms early in the season drenched the Southeast and then headed out to sea. But, then later in the winter, the snows came.

However, Mr. Pastelok predicts the battles won’t start until January and then will extend into February. “November in the Northeast could be above-normal temperatures and below-normal precipitation, and December could be a transition month,” he says. “By January and February it’s going to get pretty cold.”

Pastelok thinks the Southeast could actually get the worst of it this winter. He can envision flooding in the late fall followed by snow and ice this winter all the way down to the Gulf Coast. “Tallahassee could have some snow and ice issues this winter,” he forecasts.

[calculus1]

Experts say some parts of the country could see large snowstorms and lots of rain

I enjoyed the post, but isn't that the most non-committal headline ever? You could make that statement about every single winter!! I don't see how that statement could ever be incorrect.

[WilkesboroDude]

I enjoyed the post, but isn't that the most non-committal headline ever? You could make that statement about every single winter!! I don't see how that statement could ever be incorrect.

I agree. NBC staff writers at their finest!

Interesting he thinks Tallahassee could have snow/ice problems. Seems a bit far fetched...forecasting something like that this far out.

[Ellinwood]

Last winter was one of about two he's missed. The other miss was not as severe. So he is 5/7. I've been watching for several years since I'm originally from KC. Another TV met in Joplin collaborates. Even if it is not peer reviewed, it is important for operational forecasting. Ditto for lots of other methods used by energy forecasters. Peer review is important, but I'm not a high brow type either. I would think any met would look at any theory we could get our hands on, especially those of us held accountable financially. Just another tool in the mix...

Are all 7 forecasts online? I've only been able to find the more recent ones. Relatively speaking, do you find the LRC has more or less value than some of the more conventional tools like the AO, MJO, etc?

[nrgjeff]

Regarding the LRC

Are all 7 forecasts online? I've only been able to find the more recent ones. Relatively speaking, do you find the LRC has more or less value than some of the more conventional tools like the AO, MJO, etc?

No I cannot find them on either his NBC blog (local KC channel) or the main LRC site. Worked in Wichita for several years after graduating and then came back to KC briefly before moving to Texas. During my time in KC I discovered Lezak was using his LRC for seasonal forecasts. He has hit the winter patterns most years, including the warm 05-06. Energy vendors were celebrating their cold forecasts during a 3-week cold spell in Dec. Lezak stuck to the LRC for the win. We know how that January turned out. Now if he could have gotten last winter...

I've followed his blog even since leaving KC again. Thank goodness for the Internet. Though it is KC and Midwest focused, charts include the whole nation. I just read it; and it is not one of my main tools. On another totally separate weather site non-mets bash away and it is so LOL and facepalm. Hence, I defend the KC met. What can I say? I'm a homer- but it does deliver significant economic value over climo.

Anyway I still like the ENSO best, even more since moving to the Southeast since it's more reliable here than any other part of the USA. The PDO is a close tie/second to ENSO at my season level. Watch the AMO too, and check for years with similar PDO and AMO phases. However I need a handle on the average AO or the whole forecast can go tits up. Like the MJO and GWO in the weekly period between the season and the bal-month. Also the toughest to verify. Probably say NAO, PNA and EPO are my next tools in the forecast funnel before getting down to the 1-15 day. Figure none of this paragraph is too provocative between two red-taggers, lol. Bottom line: I'm probably more on a KC Crusade than anything, but I do like the LRC.

[nchighcountrywx]

The depiction on the Accuweather Map could be close to the way the upcoming winter may very well play out. Hoping for a great NC High Country snow season this year with all slopes open early December.

[Ellinwood]

Regarding the LRC

No I cannot find them on either his NBC blog (local KC channel) or the main LRC site. Worked in Wichita for several years after graduating and then came back to KC briefly before moving to Texas. During my time in KC I discovered Lezak was using his LRC for seasonal forecasts. He has hit the winter patterns most years, including the warm 05-06. Energy vendors were celebrating their cold forecasts during a 3-week cold spell in Dec. Lezak stuck to the LRC for the win. We know how that January turned out. Now if he could have gotten last winter...

I've followed his blog even since leaving KC again. Thank goodness for the Internet. Though it is KC and Midwest focused, charts include the whole nation. I just read it; and it is not one of my main tools. On another totally separate weather site non-mets bash away and it is so LOL and facepalm. Hence, I defend the KC met. What can I say? I'm a homer- but it does deliver significant economic value over climo.

Anyway I still like the ENSO best, even more since moving to the Southeast since it's more reliable here than any other part of the USA. The PDO is a close tie/second to ENSO at my season level. Watch the AMO too, and check for years with similar PDO and AMO phases. However I need a handle on the average AO or the whole forecast can go tits up. Like the MJO and GWO in the weekly period between the season and the bal-month. Also the toughest to verify. Probably say NAO, PNA and EPO are my next tools in the forecast funnel before getting down to the 1-15 day. Figure none of this paragraph is too provocative between two red-taggers, lol. Bottom line: I'm probably more on a KC Crusade than anything, but I do like the LRC.

Thanks for the info... it helps to hear perspectives like this due to the little documentation there is with the LRC.

[GaWx]

As we move along and get closer, the chances for there being a weak El Nino this fall/winter (ONI peak of +0.5 to +1.0 and five trimonths in a row of +0.5+) continue to increase. The weak El Nino has historically lead to the coldest winters on average by a good margin for KATL and much of the SE of any of the ENSO phases. One additional key is to attain a -NAO for DJF to go along with it although that isn't 100% necessary as the very cold 1904-5 would indicate. It also helps very much to have a +PDO for DJF, even during a -PDO regime (like we're in), although it seems as if there may be a chicken-egg issue with it (the +PDO may tend to follow from the +PNA pattern bringing the cold). All of the coldest winters had at least a neutral PDO and most had a +PDO. 1968-9 was a pretty rare cold winter, though not one of the coldest, that actually had a -PDO in DJF. Also, the chances of a cold winter seem to be enhanced when El Nino follows La Nina. Well, that would be the case this year, which is quite encouraging for cold chances.

Weak El Nino winters following La Nina's for KATL (chronological order):

1) 1904-5 (3rd coldest winter on record; 1" S/IP and 2 major ZR's)

2) 1911-2 (cold winter; 5.2" S/IP and a major ZR)

3) 1939-40 (7th coldest winter on record; 8.3" S/IP and a major ZR)

4) 1951-2 (only warm winter; warmest of 16 weak Nino's by far though 3.9" of S/IP still fell; most -PDO of weak Nino's by good margin and NAO was +)

5) 1963-4 (6th coldest winter on record; 3.6" S/IP)

6) 1968-9 (cold winter; 2.2" S/IP)

7) 1976-7 (COLDEST winter on record; 1.0" S/IP)

So, a very impressive 4 of the 7 coldest winters were in this little group of 7! By the way, what isn't shown are weak Nino's that didn't follow La Nina. The 2nd, 10th, and 11th coldest winter spots were taken up by those. So, weak El Ninos as a whole took up a very impressive 7 of the 11 coldest spots!! There have been only 16 weak Ninos in the last 134 years, the total length of records for ATL, or about one of every eight winters. So, only about 1-2 of the 11 coldest would be the “expected value” if there were no bias of weak Nino’s toward either warm or cold vs. the 7 on the list! To better put this stat in perspective, 2009-10 was the 9th coldest ATL winter.

Regarding S/IP, 25.2" fell for the 7 winters, which is 3.6"/winter or nearly double the long term avg. of ~2"/winter. Regarding major ZR events, there were 4 of them in the 7 listed winters vs. only 1 every 4.4 winters overall or about double the longterm avg. freq.

In summary, ASSUMING WE GET A WEAK NINO PEAK THIS FALL/WINTER (looking increasingly likely), the stats strongly suggest that things are looking up for a very interesting SE winter in 2012-3 (whether that be cold, above normal wintry precip., or both), especially since it would be following La Nina. Out of the 7 listed, 6 were cold and 4 were very cold. The only warm one still had major S/IP at KATL (twice the norm). Only one had below normal for both S/IP and ZR and that was the coldest of all time! Although we obviously could still have another boring winter in terms of both temp.'s and wintry precip. even with a weak Nino following a La Nina since nothing is set in stone, I'm about as optimistic as I can possibly be in August that that won't occur in 2012-3 for the SE as a whole. We'll see!

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

I use the following link for ENSO phase since 1950:

http://www.cpc.ncep....000_climo.shtml

I use the following link for ENSO phase before 1950:

http://www.cgd.ucar....limind/TNI_N34/

[DaculaWeather]

Great stuff Larry!!!

[jrips27]

Wow great read Larry! I'm excited!

[CAD_Wedge_NC]

In summary, ASSUMING WE GET A WEAK NINO PEAK THIS FALL/WINTER (looking increasingly likely), the stats strongly suggest that things are looking up for a very interesting SE winter in 2012-3 (whether that be cold, above normal wintry precip., or both), especially since it would be following La Nina. Out of the 7 listed, 6 were cold and 4 were very cold. The only warm one still had major S/IP at KATL (twice the norm). Only one had below normal for both S/IP and ZR and that was the coldest of all time! Although we obviously could still have another boring winter in terms of both temp.'s and wintry precip. even with a weak Nino following a La Nina since nothing is set in stone, I'm about as optimistic as I can possibly be in August that that won't occur in 2012-3 for the SE as a whole. We'll see!

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

I use the following link for ENSO phase since 1950:

http://www.cpc.ncep....000_climo.shtml

I use the following link for ENSO phase before 1950:

http://www.cgd.ucar....limind/TNI_N34/

Thanks for the research you do each season on things such as this. You are a great asset to our group. Keep up the good work Larry.

[Met1985]

Thanks for the research you do each season on things such as this. You are a great asset to our group. Keep up the good work Larry.

Could not have said it any better! Great work Larry!

[GaWx]

Thanks, Steve, Justin, CAD_Wedge, and Met1985. Let's hope that it actually works out as well as I'm hoping. The last time I was this optimistic about the cold aspect was the prior weak Nino of 2004-5, which actually ended up slightly warm at KATL. Then again, that one didn't follow a La Nina, which was something I hadn't analyzed back then as possibly having predictive power. Also, it turned out to be a pretty solidly +NAO and slightly -PDO. In 2009-10, being that it was a strong El Nino, I was only "hopeful" for a cold Jan and Feb as opposed to being very optimistic due to strong ones not being nearly as cold on average and I didn't have high hopes for a cold Dec.

An extra hint will come in Nov. Of the 9 cold weak Nino winters, 8 of the 9 preceding Nov.'s were below normal vs. more of a mixed result for noncold weak Nino winters.

[DixieBlizzard]

Thanks, Steve, Justin, CAD_Wedge, and Met1985. Let's hope that it actually works out as well as I'm hoping. The last time I was this optimistic about the cold aspect was the prior weak Nino of 2004-5, which actually ended up slightly warm at KATL. Then again, that one didn't follow a La Nina, which was something I hadn't analyzed back then as possibly having predictive power. Also, it turned out to be a pretty solidly +NAO and slightly -PDO. In 2009-10, being that it was a strong El Nino, I was only "hopeful" for a cold Jan and Feb as opposed to being very optimistic due to strong ones not being nearly as cold on average and I didn't have high hopes for a cold Dec.

An extra hint will come in Nov. Of the 9 cold weak Nino winters, 8 of the 9 preceding Nov.'s were below normal vs. more of a mixed result for noncold weak Nino winters.

Outstanding stuff, Larry!