The 2012-2013 Winter Outlook Thread

[metalicwx366]

I chose Midland, Texas as a reliable city in Texas to represent. Your not just going to have a 500% above average snowfall amount with zip in the surrounding areas at this particular location. I don't consider it a microclimate spot.Texas is large of course not the whole state is going to see snow. But MOST of Texas did receive beneficial precipitation that winter.

I am not seeing a connection with the Summer and Winter comparisons above. I see it as poor and mainly negative forecasting we see with certain users.

Climate

Midland features a semi-arid climate (Köppen BSh or BSk) with long, hot summers and short, moderate winters. Midland receives approximately 14.6 inches of precipitation per year, much of which falls in the summer. Highs exceed 90 °F on 101 days per year.

This

[WilkesboroDude]

^ I didn't know North Carolina was in "An exceptionally dry summer".

I see little to no drought from the northern Texas coastline and along the immediate Gulf Coast regions into much of Florida. Georgia is a sour spot though along the eastern seaboard. That could change with the heart of hurricane season ahead.

[Isopycnic]

My whole point earlier was simply that microclimates are irrelevant to the statistical data being flaunted for the purpose of proving a point. I don't like it, but that's what we have - nothing more.

I would actually prefer the 'Widre Method' simply because I'm sure my area will perfrom differently than the standard recorded locations.

Isopycnic - I presume you aren't taking the mick. Have you been recording less than the reported precip. for your area?

For the past few years it has been very abnormally dry with the drought updates lagging way behind the actual conditions, hence my comment.

Since May I have been around average rainfallwise. But it is dry for a week-10 days then it dumps like 3" in 3 hours.

[SN_Lover]

This

wishcast away. sure did some users well last winter on this subtopic, not. haha i hope it will be cold and snowy, but that's just wishcasting on my part i guess.

[metalicwx366]

wishcast away. sure did some users well last winter on this subtopic, not. haha i hope it will be cold and snowy, but that's just wishcasting on my part i guess.

Yep the 2009-10 winter 2010-11 winter spoiled a lot of us.

At one point every state had snow on the ground. I usually don't care to much for snow unless everyone is getting in on some. I'll take anything as long as there is wind with it.

[jburns]

Georgia is a sour spot though along the eastern seaboard.

So true, but lets stick to weather.

[SN_Lover]

Yep the 2009-10 winter 2010-11 winter spoiled a lot of us.

At one point every state had snow on the ground. I usually don't care to much for snow unless everyone is getting in on some. I'll take anything as long as there is wind with it.

agreed. a repeat of those winters would be a early Christmas gift I hope we get some snow. Last winter was just one disappointment after another :/

[Met1985]

Well still very early to be dead set on anything. For one thing el nino will be on our side but what will the MJO,AO,NAO,and the PNA do?

[triadwx]

This thread:

[triadwx]

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC

328 AM EST FRI JAN 29 2010

...MAJOR WINTER STORM TO AFFECT THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND

SATURDAY...

.A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER TEXAS WILL MOVE INTO THE

NORTHERN GULF AND TRACK EAST ACROSS THE GULF COAST THROUGH

TONIGHT...BEFORE MOVING OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY. THE STORM

SYSTEM WILL BRING A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE WESTERN

CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA STARTING LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY BEGIN AS A MIX OF RAIN AND

SNOW...TURNING TO MAINLY SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH CAROLINA

MOUNTAINS AND INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR THROUGH THE FOOTHILLS AND

PIEDMONT. SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED IN THESE

AREAS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. EXPECT MORE OF A WINTRY MIX

CLOSER TO THE INTERSTATE 85 CORRIDOR AND POINTS SOUTH...WITH A

PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN LIKELY PRODUCING SIGNIFICANT ICE

ACCUMULATIONS.

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM

EST SATURDAY...

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM

EST SATURDAY.

A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL DEVELOP FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON.

PRECIPITATION WILL TRANSITION TO MAINLY SNOW THIS EVENING...WITH

PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW LIKELY CONTINUING WELL INTO SATURDAY. THE

SNOW MAY MIX WITH SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY IN

LOCATIONS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40. THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD

GRADUALLY TAPER OFF FROM THE WEST SATURDAY EVENING.

TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS

MOST OF THE WARNED AREA. AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE A LITTLE LESS IN

THE VALLEYS OF THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS WHERE THE SNOW WILL MIX

WITH SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN AT TIMES. SNOWFALL TOTALS MAY REACH

OR EXCEED 9 TO 12 INCHES IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN

MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY AREAS NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW...

SLEET...AND ICE ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. HEAVY WET SNOW AND/OR

ICE ACCUMULATIONS MAY RESULT IN TOPPLED TREES AND/OR POWER LINES.

TRAVEL IS EXPECTED TO BECOME VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE.

[CaryWx]

I know my area and I've been through system after system. There are tell-tale signs that indicate how things will really go. The NWS is calling for a big winter storm, but BL temps are high and we're depending on evaporative cooling to get things down to freezing -- not gonna happen. And in a statistical sense, it makes sense. The more things that can go wrong, the more likely it is that *something* will go wrong. I look for these things that can go wrong and consider them against past instances where they did go wrong and get a sense of what's likely to happen. Since we're in the south, snow storms generally don't work out. We don't have an average of 7" a year because we usually get tons of snow. There's a reason for that low number. So for any given winter storm, you better be finding the reasons why it *wont'* work, rather than the ones why it will. Because chances are, it's not gonna work out and we'll bust low or bust altogether.

Same goes for summertime storms. There really do seem to be microclimates around here; the big one being the piedmont to sandhills transition that affects thunderstorm activity. Same goes for hurricanes. Because of the recurve paths, the piedmont area isn't actually favored for a lot of tropical activity. Storms are much more likely to recurve early and, at best, only affect the outer banks and eastern coastal plain, or not recurve at all and hit the gulf region. It takes a particularly lucky set up to get a storm to travel in just the right path to affect this area.

Maybe I don't do the fancy statistical research that GaWx does. Honestly, I should. But I don't care enough to take the time to do it. It's not super-interesting to me. So I rely on looking at published storm history on the NWS site, or my own memory of model trends, and come up with reasons why things probably won't work out. And I usually end up being right because, let's face it, winter storms, severe outbreaks and hurricanes just aren't that favorable in central NC.

That's a very sober, well articulated and well reasoned post. Quite frankly though it leaves one to wonder then, why you find anything about tracking winter weather across NC interesting at all?

[WidreMann]

That's a very sober, well articulated and well reasoned post. Quite frankly though it leaves one to wonder then, why you find anything about tracking winter weather across NC interesting at all?

Because every now and then, something does happen. And even if it doesn't, dissecting the models, waiting for the next run and reading what the mets have to say is kinda fun.

[FallsLake]

The SE will ussually be able to track al least 3 or 4 winter events each year. Yes we don't average a lot of snow (my area around 7"), but it doesn't take much snow to make a system interesting. We could get our 7" and I could still think of the year as "fun". Example, we could get a 2" sleet event with freezing rain, another 2" snow event, a 4 snow/sleet event, and then a total freezing rain event. We get 4 winter events but we still hit our average. ***and I know our average is created from off years (like last year) and on year, so the question is this going to be a on year...

Past event for RAH:

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/rah/events/

[drfranklin]

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC

328 AM EST FRI JAN 29 2010

...MAJOR WINTER STORM TO AFFECT THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND

SATURDAY...

.A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER TEXAS WILL MOVE INTO THE

NORTHERN GULF AND TRACK EAST ACROSS THE GULF COAST THROUGH

TONIGHT...BEFORE MOVING OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY. THE STORM

SYSTEM WILL BRING A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE WESTERN

CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA STARTING LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY BEGIN AS A MIX OF RAIN AND

SNOW...TURNING TO MAINLY SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH CAROLINA

MOUNTAINS AND INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR THROUGH THE FOOTHILLS AND

PIEDMONT. SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED IN THESE

AREAS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. EXPECT MORE OF A WINTRY MIX

CLOSER TO THE INTERSTATE 85 CORRIDOR AND POINTS SOUTH...WITH A

PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN LIKELY PRODUCING SIGNIFICANT ICE

ACCUMULATIONS.

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM

EST SATURDAY...

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM

EST SATURDAY.

A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL DEVELOP FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON.

PRECIPITATION WILL TRANSITION TO MAINLY SNOW THIS EVENING...WITH

PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW LIKELY CONTINUING WELL INTO SATURDAY. THE

SNOW MAY MIX WITH SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY IN

LOCATIONS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40. THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD

GRADUALLY TAPER OFF FROM THE WEST SATURDAY EVENING.

TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS

MOST OF THE WARNED AREA. AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE A LITTLE LESS IN

THE VALLEYS OF THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS WHERE THE SNOW WILL MIX

WITH SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN AT TIMES. SNOWFALL TOTALS MAY REACH

OR EXCEED 9 TO 12 INCHES IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN

MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY AREAS NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW...

SLEET...AND ICE ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. HEAVY WET SNOW AND/OR

ICE ACCUMULATIONS MAY RESULT IN TOPPLED TREES AND/OR POWER LINES.

TRAVEL IS EXPECTED TO BECOME VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE.

Thanks for this bit of history. I live just south of downtown Greenville (SC) and recall receiving 7+ inches of snow - the day after the snow event, ice/sleet accumulated forming a nice crust. Of course, snowfall of this magnitude was unprecedented/rare (for the Upstate) - snow/ice remained on side/secondary roads for one week! My kids were out of school for 5 days.

After all the snow melt, sand was everywhere in the Greenville area (for weeks) - we had a significant windstorm (with all the sand in the area) causing damage to many windshields (including mine!).

What a storm. Fortunately, this storm was forecasted days prior to the main event. I recall seeing a WLOS (our ABC station out of Asheville, NC) forecast promo (between TV programs) hours before the storm was to start: "You'll never guess where most of the snow will accumulate, more at 11" - eluding to the Upstate rather than the Asheville area.

[WilkesboroDude]

I'll pass on those 12 - 16 inch snow storms...I like it to stop around 5 inches now. I was born in '94 and 2010 was the worst for me. I never had to shovel out a car to get out of the driveway. Or see snow coming over the porch from shoveling storm after storm where it is raised a few feet off the ground.

I believe this coming winter will behave completely different from last winter. Could still be below normal snowfall, but I believe it will be nowhere as warm as last winter.

I believe.

[mackerel_sky]

While we are wishcasting,I will take another Jan 88 snow! I was living in Gastonia,NC at the time.I don't remember every detail,I was in 8th grade at the time.I remember it being real cold the day before,like staying in the 20's.I woke up around 4 am ,there was an inch already on the ground,and it was in the teens,and it snowed all day,stayed in the teens all day.after dark there was a little sleet and freezing rain ,just enough to put a crust on the deepest snow I have seen in my life.it was knee deep to me(6'6").I think it was 15" give or take,in mby.it stayed cold for awhile,and we missed about 10 days of school! Maybe this winter can give us a 15 anniversary gift!!

[triadwx]

Always a favorite!

[gracetoyou]

where is everyone getting all their confidence from in a below average winter? We are in unprecedented times in relation to warm weather. as i said last year, you can have moisture, but it's nothing without freezing temps. that proved right when we all were wishcasting every low that came through.

Dude, last year ended the streak of two of the most memorable winters in sometime for many of us. Last year winter's was warm in the U.S. but it was bone-chilling in other parts of the globe. Parts of Europe & Asia saw extremely cold conditions. Alaska had their coldest winter in decades. Heck the Bering sea had all-time record ice growth.

You know, we've had summers hotter than the one we're experiencing right now...1936. The reason it's the hottest U.S. year is because of the freaking winter. If the preceding winter of the 1936 summer would have been as warm as last year then 1936 would be the hottest U.S. year on record. Globally we're still sitting at -0.005 for the year according to satellite temps.

So chill!!

[gracetoyou]

Dude, last year ended the streak of two of the most memorable winters in sometime for many of us. Last year winter's was warm in the U.S. but it was bone-chilling in other parts of the globe. Parts of Europe & Asia saw extremely cold conditions. Alaska had their coldest winter in decades. Heck the Bering sea had all-time record ice growth.

You know, we've had summers hotter than the one we're experiencing right now...1936. The reason it's the hottest U.S. year is because of the freaking winter. If the preceding winter of the 1936 summer would have been as warm as last year then 1936 would be the hottest U.S. year on record. Globally we're still sitting at -0.005 for the year according to satellite temps.

So chill!!

I forgot to say...lol.

[Snowless in Carrollton]

Dude, last year ended the streak of two of the most memorable winters in sometime for many of us. Last year winter's was warm in the U.S. but it was bone-chilling in other parts of the globe. Parts of Europe & Asia saw extremely cold conditions. Alaska had their coldest winter in decades. Heck the Bering sea had all-time record ice growth.

You know, we've had summers hotter than the one we're experiencing right now...1936. The reason it's the hottest U.S. year is because of the freaking winter. If the preceding winter of the 1936 summer would have been as warm as last year then 1936 would be the hottest U.S. year on record. Globally we're still sitting at -0.005 for the year according to satellite temps.

So chill!!

We also had one of the warmest springs ever and we're currently having one of the hottest summers ever.

[gracetoyou]

Just for fun...this is from the latest CFS run for Jan. 24, 2013.

Would any of you like that to come to fruition?

[triadwx]

Nothing like snow flurries down to Tampa!

[Carvers Gap]

I know my area and I've been through system after system. There are tell-tale signs that indicate how things will really go. The NWS is calling for a big winter storm, but BL temps are high and we're depending on evaporative cooling to get things down to freezing -- not gonna happen. And in a statistical sense, it makes sense. The more things that can go wrong, the more likely it is that *something* will go wrong. I look for these things that can go wrong and consider them against past instances where they did go wrong and get a sense of what's likely to happen. Since we're in the south, snow storms generally don't work out. We don't have an average of 7" a year because we usually get tons of snow. There's a reason for that low number. So for any given winter storm, you better be finding the reasons why it *wont'* work, rather than the ones why it will. Because chances are, it's not gonna work out and we'll bust low or bust altogether.

Same goes for summertime storms. There really do seem to be microclimates around here; the big one being the piedmont to sandhills transition that affects thunderstorm activity. Same goes for hurricanes. Because of the recurve paths, the piedmont area isn't actually favored for a lot of tropical activity. Storms are much more likely to recurve early and, at best, only affect the outer banks and eastern coastal plain, or not recurve at all and hit the gulf region. It takes a particularly lucky set up to get a storm to travel in just the right path to affect this area.

Maybe I don't do the fancy statistical research that GaWx does. Honestly, I should. But I don't care enough to take the time to do it. It's not super-interesting to me. So I rely on looking at published storm history on the NWS site, or my own memory of model trends, and come up with reasons why things probably won't work out. And I usually end up being right because, let's face it, winter storms, severe outbreaks and hurricanes just aren't that favorable in central NC.

Exactly true. I see our weather folks on TV work the same logic. 3-5 days out the weather models are showing an all-out winter storm. They know its a rarity, so they'll make the, "Check back often, some models are showing a winter storm, but you know how it goes around here," comment. Odds are, most winter storms rarely materialize to the strength modeled. Honestly, it's a rare storm that out performs the models becauseof where we live. It can get hotter than what the models predict, because after all, we live in the South. It just takes more things to come together here than in a place such as Yellowstone where snow is the main form of precip in winter. It's like trying to get it to rain during winter in Yellowstone. Climo rarely favors big storms here. What is cool is that every once in while we can get a huge storm because of our proximity to ocean. Like you say in another post, that is what makes it fun. And I would add, it's easy to get upset(not speaking to you Widre) when a system "fails." But that's the price we pay for living down here.

For many of us who grew up in the '70s our expectations are very skewed. That was a great decade for snow in the TN Valley - one of the best. It's what I expected until I was 18 years old and the weather pattern changed. I never knew what a snow drought was until I went to college.

[mclean02]

http://torontowxcenter.blogspot.com/p/7-day-forecast.html delete if i cant post this but this looks interesting i know its early lol

[mackerel_sky]

Very good read!thanks for sharing!sounds very promising!

http://torontowxcenter.blogspot.com/p/7-day-forecast.html delete if i cant post this but this looks interesting i know its early lol

[SN_Lover]

We also had one of the warmest springs ever and we're currently having one of the hottest summers ever.

+1

[SN_Lover]

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC

328 AM EST FRI JAN 29 2010

...MAJOR WINTER STORM TO AFFECT THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND

SATURDAY...

.A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER TEXAS WILL MOVE INTO THE

NORTHERN GULF AND TRACK EAST ACROSS THE GULF COAST THROUGH

TONIGHT...BEFORE MOVING OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY. THE STORM

SYSTEM WILL BRING A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE WESTERN

CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA STARTING LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY BEGIN AS A MIX OF RAIN AND

SNOW...TURNING TO MAINLY SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH CAROLINA

MOUNTAINS AND INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR THROUGH THE FOOTHILLS AND

PIEDMONT. SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED IN THESE

AREAS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. EXPECT MORE OF A WINTRY MIX

CLOSER TO THE INTERSTATE 85 CORRIDOR AND POINTS SOUTH...WITH A

PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN LIKELY PRODUCING SIGNIFICANT ICE

ACCUMULATIONS.

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM

EST SATURDAY...

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM

EST SATURDAY.

A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL DEVELOP FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON.

PRECIPITATION WILL TRANSITION TO MAINLY SNOW THIS EVENING...WITH

PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW LIKELY CONTINUING WELL INTO SATURDAY. THE

SNOW MAY MIX WITH SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY IN

LOCATIONS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40. THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD

GRADUALLY TAPER OFF FROM THE WEST SATURDAY EVENING.

TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS

MOST OF THE WARNED AREA. AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE A LITTLE LESS IN

THE VALLEYS OF THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS WHERE THE SNOW WILL MIX

WITH SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN AT TIMES. SNOWFALL TOTALS MAY REACH

OR EXCEED 9 TO 12 INCHES IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN

MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY AREAS NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW...

SLEET...AND ICE ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. HEAVY WET SNOW AND/OR

ICE ACCUMULATIONS MAY RESULT IN TOPPLED TREES AND/OR POWER LINES.

TRAVEL IS EXPECTED TO BECOME VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE.

Ahh I remember watching that map constantly and getting excited when it showed a foot of snow haha it would be a treat if we could have one of those scenarios again!

[BullCityWx]

that storm was and still is a bust if you ask me.

[Bevo]

Interesting read. If he's anything, he's certainly nothing short of an optimist.

http://firsthandweat...recast-thoughts

[Local Yokel Wx]

Interesting read. If he's anything, he's certainly nothing short of an optimist.

http://firsthandweat...recast-thoughts

Beat me to the punch! Firsthand Weather is releasing their Official Winter Outlook on Aug 12. Season for winter forecast is upon us! A slew of them will follow suit in Sept.

Love this time of the year... Ski season is 93 days away, Football 20 odd days away and now we have Early Bird Winter Outlooks coming out in 11 days. And o yea, Iphone5 on Sept 15th, looking fwd to that!