The 2012-2013 Winter Outlook Thread

[SN_Lover]

i think this summer has been one of the wettest in recent memories in my neck of the woods. My grass is actually green at the end of July.

Perhaps for your microclimate. Otherwise 66% of the southeast is in abnormally dry conditions.

[SoCoWx]

Sorry science does not run on ones wishcasting.

I'm not wishcasting in the slightest. I'm making a statement in regards to a certain users posting behavior.

[WilkesboroDude]

Snow will fall where the rains are falling in abundance this summer...(western NC). Drought will beget drought in Georgia.

[calculus1]

i think this summer has been one of the wettest in recent memories in my neck of the woods. My grass is actually green at the end of July.

Yes, same here. Our grass looks like we put out fertilizer on it, but we didn't put down any, yet I have had to mow every week since the first week in March.

Ditto for me too. I surpassed six inches of rainfall for the month with this morning's decaying MCS passage.

Perhaps for your microclimate. Otherwise 66% of the southeast is in abnormally dry conditions.

Yeah, GA and SC have not fared too well, while we have enjoyed an abundance of precipitation in NC. I'm loving my micro-climate observations recently.

More to your earlier point concerning the abnormal dryness for the country as a whole, I think the map of the entire USA adds credence to your position. Only the eastern seaboard from the mid-atlantic northward, Florida, the gulf coast in general, and the pacific NW seem to be roughly at or near normal precipitation amounts. The center of our country is in dire need of rain, and I heard discussion on NPR this morning concerning the prices of certain staples (such as corn) that are sure to rise in the coming months due to the strain on the crops this summer.

Snow will fall where the rains are falling in abundance this summer...(western NC). Drought will beget drought in Georgia.

I think I detect a little tongue-in-cheek jab at the Georgia posters. Though, I would love for our precipitation abundance in WNC to continue into the winter months, especially if the cold temperatures can find a way to make their presence felt at the same time. Bring on winter!

[triadwx]

Nothing like a good ole Christmas light show to put us all in the spirit

[Mencken_Fan]

Well, if this winter is anything like the rest of the weather the last few years, we're going to have tons of snow, or none at all. It seems that is the way the weather seems lately, either one extreme or the other.

Yea.... we've had strange persistence for what now, three straight winters? Whatever happened to the constant intra-seasonal flip-flopping we knew all our lives? Oh well; let's just get through this scorcher of summer first.

[Mencken_Fan]

Pardon my interjection, but I believe the point is that he never bothers to post here unless it's to be a raging pessimist and bring the whole thread down. I think that's the point people are trying to make. He is, in essence, a troll.

I don't know that widreman is a troll.. but I do know his "lack of empathy" (site-wide) sticks our like a sore thumb.

[LithiaWx]

[Bevo]

Perhaps for your microclimate. Otherwise 66% of the southeast is in abnormally dry conditions.

My microclimate falls in the D2-D4 category - and I call bollocks. Just like the "Rain Total" maps that were floating around during the local weather slots that second week of July (9th-11th to be exact) - it had me at a 0.67" 48 hour total. I had received 3.54" during that time. Bollocks.

Maybe the "Drought Monitor People" should visit me and note the still saturated ground and full lakes. It'll never happen of course - those numbers are cast across broad areas - so my microclimate is irrelevant. Bollocks.

While it is generally true that significant acreage of the SE is abnormally dry, the SE is also one of the wettest regions in the US right now. That said, I cannot find anything that relates the Summer heat/moisture ratio to the performance of the following Winter (with the possible ENSO exception).

[calculus1]

My microclimate falls in the D2-D4 category - and I call bollocks. Just like the "Rain Total" maps that were floating around during the local weather slots that second week of July (9th-11th to be exact) - it had me at a 0.67" 48 hour total. I had received 3.54" during that time. Bollocks.

Maybe the "Drought Monitor People" should visit me and note the still saturated ground and full lakes. It'll never happen of course - those numbers are cast across broad areas - so my microclimate is irrelevant. Bollocks.

While it is generally true that significant acreage of the SE is abnormally dry, the SE is also one of the wettest regions in the US right now. That said, I cannot find anything that relates the Summer heat/moisture ratio to the performance of the following Winter (with the possible ENSO exception).

Can I just say that I quite appreciate the occasioned use of a "Bollocks!" here and there?! Well played, sir!

(I'm quite happy to be free of British tyranny, taxation without representation, etcetera and etcetera; but the British just have a great way with words!)

[Jon]

Wow Widre is like a SE celeb. Pops in here with his obligatory "this winter will suck" post and now everyone is discussing whether or not he is, in fact, a troll. Amazing. Bravo, Widre. Bravo.

[buckeyefan1]

omg, fall and winter can't get here soon enough. So sick of this heat. Unlike last year, where I thought the winter would really suck (and it did), I have better hopes for this year fwiw. I know that doesn't mean much though lol

I couldn't agree more with the bolded

[mackerel_sky]

I like to think with the few fronts making it pretty far south for this time of year ,and the east coast troughs that have been around between heatwaves,will bode well for this winter ,if we can keep it going,and get the el Nino going!

[WidreMann]

Joel may be a troll/pessimist but he is correct more often than not.

I know my area and I've been through system after system. There are tell-tale signs that indicate how things will really go. The NWS is calling for a big winter storm, but BL temps are high and we're depending on evaporative cooling to get things down to freezing -- not gonna happen. And in a statistical sense, it makes sense. The more things that can go wrong, the more likely it is that *something* will go wrong. I look for these things that can go wrong and consider them against past instances where they did go wrong and get a sense of what's likely to happen. Since we're in the south, snow storms generally don't work out. We don't have an average of 7" a year because we usually get tons of snow. There's a reason for that low number. So for any given winter storm, you better be finding the reasons why it *wont'* work, rather than the ones why it will. Because chances are, it's not gonna work out and we'll bust low or bust altogether.

Same goes for summertime storms. There really do seem to be microclimates around here; the big one being the piedmont to sandhills transition that affects thunderstorm activity. Same goes for hurricanes. Because of the recurve paths, the piedmont area isn't actually favored for a lot of tropical activity. Storms are much more likely to recurve early and, at best, only affect the outer banks and eastern coastal plain, or not recurve at all and hit the gulf region. It takes a particularly lucky set up to get a storm to travel in just the right path to affect this area.

Maybe I don't do the fancy statistical research that GaWx does. Honestly, I should. But I don't care enough to take the time to do it. It's not super-interesting to me. So I rely on looking at published storm history on the NWS site, or my own memory of model trends, and come up with reasons why things probably won't work out. And I usually end up being right because, let's face it, winter storms, severe outbreaks and hurricanes just aren't that favorable in central NC.

[SN_Lover]

I know my area and I've been through system after system. There are tell-tale signs that indicate how things will really go. The NWS is calling for a big winter storm, but BL temps are high and we're depending on evaporative cooling to get things down to freezing -- not gonna happen. And in a statistical sense, it makes sense. The more things that can go wrong, the more likely it is that *something* will go wrong. I look for these things that can go wrong and consider them against past instances where they did go wrong and get a sense of what's likely to happen. Since we're in the south, snow storms generally don't work out. We don't have an average of 7" a year because we usually get tons of snow. There's a reason for that low number. So for any given winter storm, you better be finding the reasons why it *wont'* work, rather than the ones why it will. Because chances are, it's not gonna work out and we'll bust low or bust altogether.

Same goes for summertime storms. There really do seem to be microclimates around here; the big one being the piedmont to sandhills transition that affects thunderstorm activity. Same goes for hurricanes. Because of the recurve paths, the piedmont area isn't actually favored for a lot of tropical activity. Storms are much more likely to recurve early and, at best, only affect the outer banks and eastern coastal plain, or not recurve at all and hit the gulf region. It takes a particularly lucky set up to get a storm to travel in just the right path to affect this area.

Maybe I don't do the fancy statistical research that GaWx does. Honestly, I should. But I don't care enough to take the time to do it. It's not super-interesting to me. So I rely on looking at published storm history on the NWS site, or my own memory of model trends, and come up with reasons why things probably won't work out. And I usually end up being right because, let's face it, winter storms, severe outbreaks and hurricanes just aren't that favorable in central NC.

amen!

[WilkesboroDude]

I know my area and I've been through system after system. There are tell-tale signs that indicate how things will really go. The NWS is calling for a big winter storm, but BL temps are high and we're depending on evaporative cooling to get things down to freezing -- not gonna happen. And in a statistical sense, it makes sense. The more things that can go wrong, the more likely it is that *something* will go wrong. I look for these things that can go wrong and consider them against past instances where they did go wrong and get a sense of what's likely to happen. Since we're in the south, snow storms generally don't work out. We don't have an average of 7" a year because we usually get tons of snow. There's a reason for that low number. So for any given winter storm, you better be finding the reasons why it *wont'* work, rather than the ones why it will. Because chances are, it's not gonna work out and we'll bust low or bust altogether.

Same goes for summertime storms. There really do seem to be microclimates around here; the big one being the piedmont to sandhills transition that affects thunderstorm activity. Same goes for hurricanes. Because of the recurve paths, the piedmont area isn't actually favored for a lot of tropical activity. Storms are much more likely to recurve early and, at best, only affect the outer banks and eastern coastal plain, or not recurve at all and hit the gulf region. It takes a particularly lucky set up to get a storm to travel in just the right path to affect this area.

Maybe I don't do the fancy statistical research that GaWx does. Honestly, I should. But I don't care enough to take the time to do it. It's not super-interesting to me. So I rely on looking at published storm history on the NWS site, or my own memory of model trends, and come up with reasons why things probably won't work out. And I usually end up being right because, let's face it, winter storms, severe outbreaks and hurricanes just aren't that favorable in central NC.

That's what makes it more dangerous I think with the less frequency or less statistical chance. Better to veer on the side of the caution. I disagree with generalizing the whole Piedmont on the frequency of winter storms, tornadoes, and hurricanes. Maybe its the immediate Raleigh area you think is in the safe zone. I find tropical systems common here after they hit the Gulf Coast. As much as 15% of the rainfall which occurs during the warm season in the Carolinas is attributable to tropical cyclones.

[SN_Lover]

I know my area and I've been through system after system. There are tell-tale signs that indicate how things will really go. The NWS is calling for a big winter storm, but BL temps are high and we're depending on evaporative cooling to get things down to freezing -- not gonna happen. And in a statistical sense, it makes sense. The more things that can go wrong, the more likely it is that *something* will go wrong. I look for these things that can go wrong and consider them against past instances where they did go wrong and get a sense of what's likely to happen. Since we're in the south, snow storms generally don't work out. We don't have an average of 7" a year because we usually get tons of snow. There's a reason for that low number. So for any given winter storm, you better be finding the reasons why it *wont'* work, rather than the ones why it will. Because chances are, it's not gonna work out and we'll bust low or bust altogether.

Same goes for summertime storms. There really do seem to be microclimates around here; the big one being the piedmont to sandhills transition that affects thunderstorm activity. Same goes for hurricanes. Because of the recurve paths, the piedmont area isn't actually favored for a lot of tropical activity. Storms are much more likely to recurve early and, at best, only affect the outer banks and eastern coastal plain, or not recurve at all and hit the gulf region. It takes a particularly lucky set up to get a storm to travel in just the right path to affect this area.

Maybe I don't do the fancy statistical research that GaWx does. Honestly, I should. But I don't care enough to take the time to do it. It's not super-interesting to me. So I rely on looking at published storm history on the NWS site, or my own memory of model trends, and come up with reasons why things probably won't work out. And I usually end up being right because, let's face it, winter storms, severe outbreaks and hurricanes just aren't that favorable in central NC.

And people have to understand that the bulk of the precip that we got thus far came from the gulf. we will not have that abundant moisture available come jan and feb where we get the bulk of winter precip. one would be a fool to find solace in the thought of a cold and increased precip winter, given we are in the hottest year on record thus far.

[WilkesboroDude]

And people have to understand that the bulk of the precip that we got thus far came from the gulf. we will not have that abundant moisture available come jan and feb where we get the bulk of winter precip. one would be a fool to find solace in the thought of a cold and increased precip winter, given we are in the hottest year on record thus far.

I am not really sure why he brought up tropical entities in the Winter Outlook thread. And what's wrong with having moisture come from the Gulf? I am pretty sure that can be key to many Winter Storms in the South. How do you know so far in advance that we will not have moisture come from the Gulf once or twice to provide a major winter storm?

Also I am not sure if I follow the bolded part.

[SN_Lover]

I am not really sure why he brought up tropical entities in the Winter Outlook thread. And what's wrong with having moisture come from the Gulf? I am pretty sure that can be key to many Winter Storms in the South. How do you know so far in advance that we will not have moisture come from the Gulf once or twice to provide a major winter storm?

Also I am not sure if I follow the bolded part.

where is everyone getting all their confidence from in a below average winter? We are in unprecedented times in relation to warm weather. as i said last year, you can have moisture, but it's nothing without freezing temps. that proved right when we all were wishcasting every low that came through.

[WilkesboroDude]

where is everyone getting all their confidence from in a below average winter? We are in unprecedented times in relation to warm weather. as i said last year, you can have moisture, but it's nothing without freezing temps. that proved right when we all were wishcasting every low that came through.

Are we in unprecedented times in relation to winter weather? Or was that just one bad winter?

[SN_Lover]

Are we in unprecedented times in relation to winter weather? Or was that just one bad winter?

hahahaha thanks for proving my point

[toxictwister00]

I'm a little confused. What does last winter being warm have to do with how this winter shapes up? I wasn't aware that's how black and white weather works nowadays.

[WilkesboroDude]

hahahaha thanks for proving my point

I understand the pessimistic views of winter weather in the South. It's the pessimistic forecasting is just a bit too simple for my liking. That's all.

Texas went from the worst drought in history to parts of the state receiving 500% above average snow amounts.

Midland, Texas

Updated Feb 1

Grade: A

Seasonal snow-to-date: 19.5"

500% of average

How's that for unprecedented times for ya?

[Isopycnic]

My microclimate falls in the D2-D4 category - and I call bollocks. Just like the "Rain Total" maps that were floating around during the local weather slots that second week of July (9th-11th to be exact) - it had me at a 0.67" 48 hour total. I had received 3.54" during that time. Bollocks.

Maybe the "Drought Monitor People" should visit me and note the still saturated ground and full lakes. It'll never happen of course - those numbers are cast across broad areas - so my microclimate is irrelevant. Bollocks.

While it is generally true that significant acreage of the SE is abnormally dry, the SE is also one of the wettest regions in the US right now. That said, I cannot find anything that relates the Summer heat/moisture ratio to the performance of the following Winter (with the possible ENSO exception).

My location had the opposite problem for the past few summers. Congrats.

[SN_Lover]

I understand the pessimistic views of winter weather in the South. It's the pessimistic forecasting is just a bit too simple for my liking. That's all.

Texas went from the worst drought in history to parts of the state receiving 500% above average snow amounts.

Midland, Texas

Updated Feb 1

Grade: A

Seasonal snow-to-date: 19.5"

500% of average

How's that for unprecedented times for ya?

You are picking a microclimate and speaking in a general tone like ALL of texas received that amount hahaha and that was last year? i don't see 2011 on that list do you? so their heat in addition to the entire conus was not unprecedented sorry .

[WilkesboroDude]

You are picking a microclimate and speaking in a general tone like ALL of texas received that amount hahaha and that was last year? i don't see 2011 on that list do you? so their heat in addition to the entire conus was not unprecedented sorry .

I do think it was unprecedented in a lot of areas for below normal snowfall. But what makes you think history will repeat itself? Maybe if it happened for several consecutive years...

[Bevo]

My whole point earlier was simply that microclimates are irrelevant to the statistical data being flaunted for the purpose of proving a point. I don't like it, but that's what we have - nothing more.

I would actually prefer the 'Widre Method' simply because I'm sure my area will perfrom differently than the standard recorded locations.

Isopycnic - I presume you aren't taking the mick. Have you been recording less than the reported precip. for your area?

[triadwx]

I'm a little confused. What does last winter being warm have to do with how this winter shapes up? I wasn't aware that's how black and white weather works nowadays.

It doesn't at all. Summer and winter climates are two different animals completely.

[WilkesboroDude]

I chose Midland, Texas as a reliable city in Texas to represent. Your not just going to have a 500% above average snowfall amount with zip in the surrounding areas at this particular location. I don't consider it a microclimate spot.Texas is large of course not the whole state is going to see snow. But MOST of Texas did receive beneficial precipitation that winter.

I am not seeing a connection with the Summer and Winter comparisons above. I see it as poor and mainly negative forecasting we see with certain users.

Climate

Midland features a semi-arid climate (Köppen BSh or BSk) with long, hot summers and short, moderate winters. Midland receives approximately 14.6 inches of precipitation per year, much of which falls in the summer. Highs exceed 90 °F on 101 days per year.

[SN_Lover]

I chose Midland, Texas as a reliable city in Texas to represent. Your not just going to have a 500% above average snowfall amount with zip in the surrounding areas at this particular location. I don't consider it a microclimate spot.Texas is large of course not the whole state is going to see snow. But MOST of Texas did receive beneficial precipitation that winter.

I am not seeing a connection with the Summer and Winter comparisons above. I see it as poor and mainly negative forecasting we see with certain users.

Climate

Midland features a semi-arid climate (Köppen BSh or BSk) with long, hot summers and short, moderate winters. Midland receives approximately 14.6 inches of precipitation per year, much of which falls in the summer. Highs exceed 90 °F on 101 days per year.

A quick drought-related thought...

June 2012 ranked as the 10th driest June on record for the contiguous U.S. Since 1895, 20/30 (67%) of such cases also saw the summer rank as among the 30 driest. To date, summer 2012 appears on course for such an outcome.

An exceptionally dry summer often heralds a dry winter. Among the 30 driest summers on record, 20 (67%) were followed by among the 50 driest winters. 11 (55%) of those dry winters were followed by a dry fall (50 driest on record), while 9 (45%) were followed by a wet fall (50 wettest on record).

For the first 6 months, 2012 was the 16th driest year on record. The last time the U.S. had less precipitation in the first half of the year was 2002 (11th driest). Whether or not the U.S. has moved into a regime that will feature generally dry years remains to be seen.