The 2012-2013 Winter Outlook Thread

[Brick Tamland]

Larry Cosgrove came out with his Winter Outlook....it looked pretty good for the south. In red is the track he feels most storms will take this winter. For the south he had Dec/Feb colder with Jan average and March warmer.

I think the track could be good around here IF we get the cold air. We have had some good snow from storms that come up from the gulf. It seems harder to get the moisture here when it has to come from the west over the mountains or the north. I'd rather take my chances with it coming up from the Gulf and hope the cold air is in place.

[Jon]

I think the track could be good around here IF we get the cold air. We have had some good snow from storms that come up from the gulf. It seems harder to get the moisture here when it has to come from the west over the mountains or the north. I'd rather take my chances with it coming up from the Gulf and hope the cold air is in place.

Right. If a Hatteras low bombs off the coast of NC we could get snow if cold air is in place. Yes. That goes without saying. That's the ONLY way we would get snow in central NC...the sole solution for us. Any other half a** solution would result in a very slow changeover if any at all and another one that dumps on the NE.

[NC_hailstorm]

Solar flux has been running low for November,right now it's at 108.2 last year it ended up high at 153.5

Had a decent spike in solar activity today though and looks close to last November levels.Going to watch to see if this keeps up or slows down.Low solar into a -QBO is better for blocking in theory not high so we'll see.

The strat at 10 and 30 levels above the pole need to warm to fight off the PV..Still time but getting a good bit below normal.

Just my opinion.

[Northern Foothills Snowman]

Just saw on Joe Bastardi Twitter that next week will be nice across much of U S .He also posted about Dec 2012 may challenge 2009 globally.Sounds encouraging.

[Brick Tamland]

Matthew East put out his winter forecast today. It's another positive one for snow fans.

http://mattheweast.blogspot.com/2012/11/2012-2013-winter-forecast.html

[WilkesboroDude]

UPDATED

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/sandy-winter-2012-2013-forecast/1741302

[valkhorn]

It's going to be a pretty lame winter in the SE if the red tracks are the most common. Probably not as cold either.

For you. Here in TN, I'll accept those red tracks and welcome them. Some spots in the Smoky Mountains still had snow on the ground as of last Saturday. I hiked through 2-3 foot drifts a couple weeks ago.

In fact, something nice may look like it's on the horizon for KY and northern TN in the next 2 weeks.

[GaWx]

Better late than never, here's my final and official KATL winter forecast:

1) Unfortunately, there will not be a weak El Nino (or any one for that matter). After trying to rise back in late Oct./early Nov., it has since stopped and fallen back. It will be an ENSO neutral winter. That, in itself, isn't necessarily bad. However, it definitely would have been better had we had a weak Nino from my forecasting perspective based on history. Neutral winters are all over the place and depend largely on other factors.

2) The PDO did rise quite a bit from 9/10 to 10/20. However, it has since fallen back and I now think it will average negative, especially considering the current -PDO regime but also considering that I thought that a weak Nino, itself, could have helped push the PDO to positive. The hope is now that it be only moderately negative this winter. That is hard to predict.

3) The good news is that the NAO (and AO) still look to average negative....i.e., good blocking up north that tends to force cold air down below.

***Final winter forecast:

1) Due to competing strong forces, my best guess is to go with DJF averaging within two degrees of normal. There will be alternating periods of warmth (when the -PDO dominates) and cold (when the -NAO/-AO dominates), which should approximately balance each other. At times, they will cancel each other out and give us periods of near normal temperatures.

2) Regarding wintry precip. through March, it is a crapshoot. I'm going to play the odds and guess there will be one minor ZR event for the city of Atlanta, itself. It may be very minor and be a part of a regular rain event. I'm also going with one measurable S/IP officially at KATL of ~1", probably during a significant blocking period.

So, the good news is that I'm expecting cooler than last winter and with some measurable wintry precip. unlike last winter. Regardless, anything is possible as we know in the wacky world of weather.