griteater Posted October 5, 2012 Share Posted October 5, 2012 How often does the PDO get updated? Last time I heard anything it was trending towards weak negative/neutral. The PDO values are updated monthly here - http://jisao.washing.../pdo/PDO.latest But you can look at sea surface temperature anomaly maps to infer its state - http://www.esrl.noaa....anim.week.html -PDO has negative (cold) anomalies along the U.S./Canada/Alaska coasts, with warm anomalies west of there....reverse for +PDO. Sea surface temperatures along the equator don't have anything to do with the PDO calculation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaStorm Posted October 5, 2012 Share Posted October 5, 2012 The PDO values are updated monthly here - http://jisao.washing.../pdo/PDO.latest But you can look at sea surface temperature anomaly maps to infer its state - http://www.esrl.noaa....anim.week.html -PDO has negative (cold) anomalies along the U.S./Canada/Alaska coasts, with warm anomalies west of there....reverse for +PDO. Sea surface temperatures along the equator don't have anything to do with the PDO calculation. Thanks. Last time I read an update it was on the rise which was good news. Not sure if there is a lag on sun activity to sensible weather but I know in 2000 it ruined what would of been a good winter for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 5, 2012 Share Posted October 5, 2012 Thanks. Last time I read an update it was on the rise which was good news. Not sure if there is a lag on sun activity to sensible weather but I know in 2000 it ruined what would of been a good winter for us. Per the NOAA PDO table, the PDO fell even further from -2.32 in Aug. to -2.82 in Sep.: ftp://ftp.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/ersst/v3b/pdo/pdo.dat This is surprising to me as I had expected the PDO to rise from the low Aug. level. The other PDO table, which I had been following recently, has yet to update for Sep.: http://jisao.washing.../pdo/PDO.latest The JISAO negatives have tended to be lower in magnitude than NOAA's. Regardless, the NOAA -2.82 suggests the chance for a sub -2 in JISAO in Sep. I had been expecting a rise in JISAO from the -1.93 of Aug. to something above -1.50 in Sep. due to SST anom. changes since mid-Sep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted October 5, 2012 Share Posted October 5, 2012 Thanks for posting GA...didn't know about that NOAA PDO link. So, the current value is the most negative PDO number EVER for Sept (back to 1854). I too would have thought that it would have climbed a bit, but it must be the deep anomalies that are bringing this sharply negative number (deep cold anomalies off California / Baja....and deep warm anomalies south of the Kamchatka penninsula). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaStorm Posted October 5, 2012 Share Posted October 5, 2012 Per the NOAA PDO table, the PDO fell even further from -2.32 in Aug. to -2.82 in Sep.: ftp://ftp.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/ersst/v3b/pdo/pdo.dat This is surprising to me as I had expected the PDO to rise from the low Aug. level. The other PDO table, which I had been following recently, has yet to update for Sep.: http://jisao.washing.../pdo/PDO.latest The JISAO negatives have tended to be lower in magnitude than NOAA's. Regardless, the NOAA -2.82 suggests the chance for a sub -2 in JISAO in Sep. I had been expecting a rise in JISAO from the -1.93 of Aug. to something above -1.50 in Sep. due to SST anom. changes since mid-Sep. Thanks for the update Larry. Hopefully this will change soon but it will be tough to turnaround I would think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted October 6, 2012 Share Posted October 6, 2012 Solar flux is not too high,came in at 122.9 for September. More MMW's occur in a -QBO with a solar minima (solar flux below 110 units)but a few have happened in the maxima(solar flux above 150 units).October is estimated to come in at 116.9 but this changes daily so we'll see. 30 -hPa temp over the pole is slightly above average so far also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted October 9, 2012 Share Posted October 9, 2012 ENSO update from Australian Bureau of Meteorology... Pacific eases further away from El Niño thresholds Issued on Tuesday 9 October The chance of El Niño developing in 2012 has reduced over the past fortnight. The tropical Pacific continued its retreat from El Niño thresholds for the second consecutive fortnight (i.e., ocean temperatures cooled), remaining within the neutral range (neither El Niño nor La Niña). Other ENSO indicators such as the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and tropical cloud patterns have persisted at neutral levels since late July. Given the rate of ocean cooling, and the continued neutral conditions in the atmosphere, the chance of an El Niño developing in 2012 has reduced further over the past fortnight. However, some risk still remains while the trade winds in the western Pacific continue to be weaker than normal. Climate models surveyed by the Bureau of Meteorology have increased their chances of sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean remaining at neutral levels, though still warmer than average, for the remainder of 2012. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 NAO has a more direct influence on NC snowfall than ENSO. NAO had the most significant impact on snow days. Even in winter months that featured La Niña conditions (typically warm and dry), combined with a negative NAO, only February saw a decrease in snow days, which suggests that the NAO has a more direct influence on NC snowfall than ENSO. Excluding March, winter months that averaged a negative NAO experienced at least a 25% increase in the number of snow days compared to the 52 year average, while positive NAO months had at least a 25% decrease in snow days. Winter months in NC that average a negative NAO see a significant increase in snow days. http://www.nc-climat...NC_Snowfall.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 lol. What 5yo weenie created that? Bad Mountain Snow's must suck. No snow for western NY? Yeah I dont get that part. If parts of South Carolina are going to get snow, then Buffalo is going to have a very white, not wet winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted October 11, 2012 Share Posted October 11, 2012 I think it's probably going to teeter on neutral to very weak nino through January. Only decent ENSO analogs I could come up with after a cursory glance are 89-90, 76-77, and 51-52. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXeastern Posted October 12, 2012 Share Posted October 12, 2012 EDIT: To remove 2010/2011..it didnt have an October AO of at least -1.00 The Arctic Oscillation has gone solidly into negative territory and is progged to go even more negative later this month. If guidance products are correct (and I think they are) it looks like October will average out decently and possibly deeply negative in terms of AO. I just ran the numbers on past winters since 1950 with an October Arctic Oscillation of at least negative 1.00. Its definately a cold look! Temps Precip Potential Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
okie333 Posted October 12, 2012 Share Posted October 12, 2012 Dec-Feb with better scaling. Honestly the Standardized anoms would have been better to post but many users are used to the non-normalized data, especially for temperatures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXeastern Posted October 12, 2012 Share Posted October 12, 2012 A look at possible October similarities to that of 2009 in terms of temp patterns This Oct so far Oct of 2009 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 Woolly worm predicts snowy winter in western NC ASHEVILLE, N.C. — A woolly worm named Lickety Split is warning residents of western North Carolina to get ready to bundle up. The worm was the survivor in a day of races at the 35th annual Woolly Worm Festival in Banner Elk Saturday. The caterpillars have black and brown bands, with one color sometimes dominating the other. Folklore says black is associated with snowy weather, while brown is an indicator of mild conditions. The bands on Lickety Split called for snow and below average temperatures for the first five weeks of winter. The next six weeks will be average to below normal with more snow predicted for the final week. According to the National Weather Service, October will be cooler than normal, but November and December will be slightly warmer than normal. Credit: The Associated Press. http://myfox8.com/2012/10/20/woolly-worm-predicts-snowy-winter-in-western-nc/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 FYI...for the Charlotte and surrounding area folks, saw this from Brad Panovich..."Thursday October 25th, 2012 my 8th Annual Winter Forecast for the Carolinas will be released. It will happen on TV at 11pm on NBC Charlotte." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 FYI...for the Charlotte and surrounding area folks, saw this from Brad Panovich..."Thursday October 25th, 2012 my 8th Annual Winter Forecast for the Carolinas will be released. It will happen on TV at 11pm on NBC Charlotte." Nice, thanks for the update! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted October 31, 2012 Share Posted October 31, 2012 Larry Cosgrove came out with his Winter Outlook....it looked pretty good for the south. In red is the track he feels most storms will take this winter. For the south he had Dec/Feb colder with Jan average and March warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted November 2, 2012 Share Posted November 2, 2012 Brad Pancovich Blog What the Sandy pattern could mean for our winter: http://wxbrad.com/what-the-pattern-that-produced-sandy-means-for-our-winter/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted November 2, 2012 Share Posted November 2, 2012 Here is my winter outlook. http://www.examiner.com/article/winter-2012-13-forecast-part-1 http://www.examiner.com/article/winter-2012-13-forecast-part-2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 Here is my winter outlook. http://www.examiner....forecast-part-1 http://www.examiner....forecast-part-2 Allan, I hope you are well! Stellar winter outlook as usual. Current SSTs in the Pac and Atl are interesting for sure, one could envision an active northern and southern stream going into DJF, with cooler waters off the SE, a slightly above avg. GOM, and well above north of 40S. Furthermore, SST's all and around the southern half of Greenland are warm, maybe a winter that trends neg as whole for the NAO. The +AMO and -PDO with a borderline/weak Nino comp temp analogues is torch, way to go forecasting slightly below east of the MS for D and F with this setup Split stream has sig potential, Dec in particular, very nice Sir! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 Larry Cosgrove came out with his Winter Outlook....it looked pretty good for the south. In red is the track he feels most storms will take this winter. For the south he had Dec/Feb colder with Jan average and March warmer. It's going to be a pretty lame winter in the SE if the red tracks are the most common. Probably not as cold either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 It's going to be a pretty lame winter in the SE if the red tracks are the most common. Probably not as cold either. Quick sketch from Allan's current SST map posted in his winter outlook, not a rocket scientist, but I did sleep at a Holiday Inn Express last week... Mid-America and GL cutters should be few and far between. Yeah, GoA low sucks, I know, deal with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 Larry Cosgrove came out with his Winter Outlook....it looked pretty good for the south. In red is the track he feels most storms will take this winter. For the south he had Dec/Feb colder with Jan average and March warmer. I agree with these tracks. Here is my winter outlook. http://www.examiner....forecast-part-1 http://www.examiner....forecast-part-2 Thanks for posting your outlook Allen! Quick sketch from Allan's current SST map posted in his winter outlook, not a rocket scientist, but I did sleep at a Holiday Inn Express last week... Mid-America and GL cutters should be few and far between. Yeah, GoA low sucks, I know, deal with it. That's been the pattern all year, why should it change? I agree with the path's LC has posted. I do believe the upstate of SC and western(and northern) NC will see a return to a normal to slightly above normal winter precip. I think the cutoff will be from RDU/Charl/ATL and south. Not that I don't think anyone south has a chance of seeing any winter precip at all, but I'm not going to hold my breath for it to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 I agree with these tracks. Thanks for posting your outlook Allen! That's been the pattern all year, why should it change? I agree with the path's LC has posted. I do believe the upstate of SC and western(and northern) NC will see a return to a normal to slightly above normal winter precip. I think the cutoff will be from RDU/Charl/ATL and south. Not that I don't think anyone south has a chance of seeing any winter precip at all, but I'm not going to hold my breath for it to happen. Blocking inhibits lake cutters Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 It's going to be a pretty lame winter in the SE if the red tracks are the most common. Probably not as cold either. Agreed. both red tracks give central NC a cold rain for most events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 It's pretty lame if you think every potential se storm will follow those exact paths . Notice they say POSSIBLE storm tracks.It's going to be a long winter!! It's going to be a pretty lame winter in the SE if the red tracks are the most common. Probably not as cold either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 I agree with these tracks. Thanks for posting your outlook Allen! That's been the pattern all year, why should it change? I agree with the path's LC has posted. I do believe the upstate of SC and western(and northern) NC will see a return to a normal to slightly above normal winter precip. I think the cutoff will be from RDU/Charl/ATLMacon, and south. Not that I don't think anyone Way Way south has a chance of seeing any winter precip at all, but I'm not going to hold my breath for it to happen. Fixed it for you. I know folks not familiar with Ga. think the state ends at I 20..... and beyond "there be monsters", lol. In your case, dear lady, I know this was a typo! Might be time for another deep diving ULL taking the turn around Columbus, it is well past time for a huge, big zmonster, and, of course, Tony's Sleet Express is past due at this station:) As in every year at this time, hope springs eternal that this is the winter of my dreams, lol. Two triple phasers, a myriad of lesser 6 to 12 inchers, and ice burgs on the Hooch!!! T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 Fixed it for you. I know folks not familiar with Ga. think the state ends at I 20..... and beyond "there be monsters", lol. In your case, dear lady, I know this was a typo! Might be time for another deep diving ULL taking the turn around Columbus, it is well past time for a huge, big zmonster, and, of course, Tony's Sleet Express is past due at this station:) As in every year at this time, hope springs eternal that this is the winter of my dreams, lol. Two triple phasers, a myriad of lesser 6 to 12 inchers, and ice burgs on the Hooch!!! T I hope for an amazing winter too It's just the pattern that we've seen has given north GA,SC,TN,western and northern NC all the fun. I'm expecting that to continue, with the hope of later on in the season it shifts east just enough to give those that have missed out some fun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 Well, this pattern gave me 5 1/4 inches on 3 days in early July, and 6 inches in one day not long ago, so I guess I can be content with a repeat while it is in the 20's, lol. Hmmm...6 inches of rain....maybe 4 or 5 feet of snow? 3 feet of sleet? Just as long as it isn't zrain T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DixieBlizzard Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Well, this pattern gave me 5 1/4 inches on 3 days in early July, and 6 inches in one day not long ago, so I guess I can be content with a repeat while it is in the 20's, lol. Hmmm...6 inches of rain....maybe 4 or 5 feet of snow? 3 feet of sleet? Just as long as it isn't zrain T I like the way you think Tony! Maybe you can break out the "special" avatar this year! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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