POWERSTROKE Posted September 25, 2012 Share Posted September 25, 2012 well the JB bashing has started and its in September!!!!!. Love it!!! All I have to say is last year he said in August that SE would get nothing. He changed that in November just like most forecasters on here. he said last November that it would turn cold around here just like most on here. So what happen, just what he said would in August. He changed just like everybody else. Robert (foothills) is a good friend of mine and I feel he is the best SE forecaster on here however he will admit he missed it last year as well Look at his forecast as well as Raleigh (allan). Funny thing is neither one of them bash another forecaster. It is an opinion just like all on here. Anybody can predict a storm 24hrs out but JB is pretty good at pattern recognition. Bad thing that eats most up is he makes more in a month than most make in a year, is he perfect nope far from it. He just make opinions just like all on here. His forecast looks interesting but we will see what happens. All I know he has said the same thing since May about this winter so lets see if it verifies come winter time. Robert told me that. But carry on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted September 25, 2012 Share Posted September 25, 2012 I have no problem with JB.I think he has a genuine love for weather and is a very enthusiastic person.and like many have already said,his opinions and ideas are as good as anybody else.This winter can't be as bad as last , but if it is,I'm moving to Boone! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWY316wx Posted September 25, 2012 Share Posted September 25, 2012 Maybe the year of the "WEDGE"?? Just as a spectator in the stands after reading a bunch of stuff yesterday I thought the same thing. Would be interesting to look back over the 1999-2000 records and see what pattern set up in the fall / early winter leading up to January of 2000 was. Those CAD events were something else. http://ngeorgia.com/ang/Ice_Jam_2000 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toxictwister00 Posted September 25, 2012 Share Posted September 25, 2012 Just as a spectator in the stands after reading a bunch of stuff yesterday I thought the same thing. Would be interesting to look back over the 1999-2000 records and see what pattern set up in the fall / early winter leading up to January of 2000 was. Those CAD events were something else. http://ngeorgia.com/ang/Ice_Jam_2000 This One Two Punch Ice storms that year were something else indeed, the only one worse than that since is the January 29, 2005 one. I faintly remember those two icestorms because I think we lost power for a brief period of time during one of them, but I'm sure which one I was 7 back then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted September 25, 2012 Share Posted September 25, 2012 don't quite understand, everyone is saying more snow and colder than normal in the east from western n. carolina up the east coast, but NOAA is saying average snow and slightly warmer temps. GO FIGURE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted September 25, 2012 Share Posted September 25, 2012 don't quite understand, everyone is saying more snow and colder than normal in the east from western n. carolina up the east coast, but NOAA is saying average snow and slightly warmer temps. GO FIGURE beauty of LR forecasts!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DixieBlizzard Posted September 25, 2012 Share Posted September 25, 2012 don't quite understand, everyone is saying more snow and colder than normal in the east from western n. carolina up the east coast, but NOAA is saying average snow and slightly warmer temps. GO FIGURE "A variation of opinion about winter....in September??? NO! It can't be!!!" said no one, ever! Come on man. If you are looking for agreement this far out, it seems you may be in the wrong place to find that. Go figure, huh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 25, 2012 Share Posted September 25, 2012 Per JB Tweet (so it is public/free) just released: "My forecast is colder and snowier than norm east/south, but is in the mid range of a lesser winter, and what could be as nasty as 09-10" Remember that I'm just a messenger. No guns allowed. Just ice cream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted September 25, 2012 Share Posted September 25, 2012 Lots of talk on Page 12 about Nino vs PDO, and rightfully so. Funny how we are obsessed with Nino which will be a weak signal either way. The -PDO is a warm signal for the Southeast. We could see a very -PDO and a meh Nino. That combo (PDO focus) is mild down here. Can't post chart from subscription service. Precip is still above normal, rain at lower elevations, but I'm hoping for good things in the ski areas. Statistically it's very unlikely winter will be as depressing (for snow fans) as last year, but I don't expect another 10/11 or 09/10 either. There is no reason to speculate about the unpredictable NAO now. The more streaky AO (monthly average, not this current 6-15 fcst) is currently averaging positive. It could flip negative late winter. However being frank and brutally honest, the PDO is a much more reliable signal this far (months) out. For now, from a strictly data-driven perspective, I have to go mild/normal temps. Let's hope for the best in the mountain ski areas. Yes...the usual suspects are going cold but not EVERYONE is.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted September 25, 2012 Share Posted September 25, 2012 Sept 25 ENSO Wrap-Up from Australian Bureau of Meteorology... Tropical Pacific Ocean temperatures have generally cooled over the past fortnight, easing towards neutral values (neither El Niño nor La Niña). Other ENSO indicators such as the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and tropical cloud patterns have remained at neutral levels. Given September is the time of year when El Niño events consolidate, this recent cooling is considered somewhat unusual, hence the risk of an El Niño event remains. Despite the shift towards neutral conditions, the tropical Pacific remains warmer than average. Climate models surveyed by the Bureau of Meteorology suggest sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean will maintain values around typical El Niño thresholds for the remainder of 2012. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted September 25, 2012 Share Posted September 25, 2012 Yes...the usual suspects are going cold but not EVERYONE is.... Yes, There will be many that goes above norm temps for the SE which is always the better bet! after all we are in the SE... You have any thoughts for the winter yet? Would love to hear your thoughts... Thanks, Frosty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted September 25, 2012 Share Posted September 25, 2012 Yes, There will be many that goes above norm temps for the SE which is always the better bet! after all we are in the SE... You have any thoughts for the winter yet? Would love to hear your thoughts... Thanks, Frosty There should statitically speaking be a 50/50 shot at temps being above or below normal all things being equal. So I don't understand the "better bet" comment regarding above or below normal southeast temps. The whole premise of "normal" is that is the baseline for calculating if we have a warmer or cooler winter than normal. All things are not equal in weather. The only reason I would say warmer than normal is a better bet is due to the rapidly warming planet we live on. That goes for the earth as a whole its not contained to the southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted September 25, 2012 Share Posted September 25, 2012 Per JB Tweet (so it is public/free) just released: "My forecast is colder and snowier than norm east/south, but is in the mid range of a lesser winter, and what could be as nasty as 09-10" Remember that I'm just a messenger. No guns allowed. Just ice cream. Larry, I appreciate all your stats and thoughts good reads!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted September 25, 2012 Share Posted September 25, 2012 There should statitically speaking be a 50/50 shot at temps being above or below normal all things being equal. So I don't understand the "better bet" comment regarding above or below normal southeast temps. True, I guess it just seems that way... lol Thanks for correcting me... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted September 25, 2012 Share Posted September 25, 2012 True, I guess it just seems that way... lol Thanks for correcting me... My bad I did not mean to come off as correcting you. I added a bit more to my response as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted September 25, 2012 Share Posted September 25, 2012 "A variation of opinion about winter....in September??? NO! It can't be!!!" said no one, ever! Come on man. If you are looking for agreement this far out, it seems you may be in the wrong place to find that. Go figure, huh? Hey buddy don't take it so hard I'm just a messenger, chill a little, don't get excited. GGGGG Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted September 25, 2012 Share Posted September 25, 2012 My bad I did not mean to come off as correcting you. I added a bit more to my response as well. No problem, I didn't take it as being a negative response! Just hope we can have a colder and snowy/Icy winter this season!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted September 25, 2012 Share Posted September 25, 2012 No problem, I didn't take it as being a negative response! Just hope we can have a colder and snowy/Icy winter this season!!! I don't think we are looking down the barrel of a torch winter fwiw. My gut, yes gut is telling me that this winter will fall into the normal or cooler than normal category this season. I don't understand the PDO. I have yet to attempt to educate mysellf on it. I do believe in a correlation between low arctic sea ice extent and a negative NAO. That alone should help us this year if there is a connection between the two. I was on the torch bandwagon pretty early on last year and felt like I saw it coming a mile away. This year looking at what is out there, minus the PDO and add in a gut feeling I keep landing on a decent winter. We shall see..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DixieBlizzard Posted September 25, 2012 Share Posted September 25, 2012 Hey buddy don't take it so hard I'm just a messenger, chill a little, don't get excited. GGGGG I'm chilled. Now, what message? Excited? I am getting too old. All I am saying is you are unlikely to get consensus among Mets, hobbyist, etc. when a winter storm is actually manifesting itself with radar returns just to our west. What makes you think that anyone can reach consensus in the first full week of Fall? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted September 26, 2012 Share Posted September 26, 2012 Saw this posted by Wow (AmWx Admin)... We are currently building our own model center. We will be using RaleighWx's model data and plan on expanding it thereafter. It carries somewhat of a similar structure to Twisterdata's layout but with more models and parameters. I hope to have it up and running before winter makes its presence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted September 26, 2012 Share Posted September 26, 2012 I'm chilled. Now, what message? Excited? I am getting too old. All I am saying is you are unlikely to get consensus among Mets, hobbyist, etc. when a winter storm is actually manifesting itself with radar returns just to our west. What makes you think that anyone can reach consensus in the first full week of Fall? I'm just reading the predictions so far and I agree its way to early to tell so my point was that no one will agree with NOAA right now with warmer temps than normal on the east coast. I DO AGREE WITH ROLL TIDE THOUGH. I think Alabama should win it all again, Alabama is a head above everyone else kinda like men to boys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DixieBlizzard Posted September 26, 2012 Share Posted September 26, 2012 I'm just reading the predictions so far and I agree its way to early to tell so my point was that no one will agree with NOAA right now with warmer temps than normal on the east coast. I DO AGREE WITH ROLL TIDE THOUGH. I think Alabama should win it all again, Alabama is a head above everyone else kinda like men to boys. Thanks man. Lot of good teams out there...FSU, Oregon, LSU, etc. Lot of work left to do both on the field and with this winter forecast! LOL! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MADDOGG Posted September 27, 2012 Share Posted September 27, 2012 There should statitically speaking be a 50/50 shot at temps being above or below normal all things being equal. So I don't understand the "better bet" comment regarding above or below normal southeast temps. The whole premise of "normal" is that is the baseline for calculating if we have a warmer or cooler winter than normal. All things are not equal in weather. The only reason I would say warmer than normal is a better bet is due to the rapidly warming planet we live on. That goes for the earth as a whole its not contained to the southeast. The only reason I would say warmer than normal is a better bet is due to the rapidly warming planet we live on o yes sir global warming strikes again (knods yes mr gore) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted September 27, 2012 Share Posted September 27, 2012 Yes, There will be many that goes above norm temps for the SE which is always the better bet! after all we are in the SE... You have any thoughts for the winter yet? Would love to hear your thoughts... Thanks, Frosty Obviously it is early....some of the similar ENSO analogs have a tendency to burst into a more robust warm phase in early and mid October so I will hold my breath until then...So many want to be first...not me! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted September 27, 2012 Share Posted September 27, 2012 Accuweather Pro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted September 27, 2012 Share Posted September 27, 2012 Obviously it is early....some of the similar ENSO analogs have a tendency to burst into a more robust warm phase in early and mid October so I will hold my breath until then...So many want to be first...not me! I agree it is definitely early, I'll be looking forward to your thoughts later on... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted September 27, 2012 Share Posted September 27, 2012 Accuweather Pro I would love for that to verify. It does seem mid-atlantic and ne biased though. Do they give any reasoning behind the map that you can share? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted September 27, 2012 Share Posted September 27, 2012 That map looks sexy!!Hope it verifies.That map looks like they are expecting a few storms to go from the gulf up thru the Carolina coasta! Accuweather Pro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
featherwx Posted September 28, 2012 Share Posted September 28, 2012 Accuweather Pro That snow zone just needs to go about 25 miles east and I'll be satisfied Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted September 28, 2012 Share Posted September 28, 2012 Accuweather Pro lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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