The 2012-2013 Winter Outlook Thread

[nchighcountrywx]

i think since we are the ones that waste our money that we should just keep the misleading forecast to ourselves.

I hear ya! This is stuff to soon talk over in a deer stand!

http://www.ncwildlife.org/Hunting/SeasonsLimits/201213DeerSeasons.aspx

[BIG FROSTY]

I am having a hard time finding a forecast that does not show us having above normal snowfall.

Can someone link me to some forecasts that show our area having a terrible winter?

I've not seen anything or anyone showing a terrible winter here! Like powerstroke said I DON"T think it can be as bad as last winter...

[LithiaWx]

Well JB agrees with me this season.

[cloudcrash619]

Can someone please post the forecast? I don't feel like paying money just to look at a winter outlook.

[jburns]

Can someone please post the forecast? I don't feel like paying money just to look at a winter outlook.

Can someone steal a car for me. I don't feel like paying money just to drive to work.

[cloudcrash619]

Can someone steal a car for me. I don't feel like paying money just to drive to work.

Well, just to be fair, a car and a winter forecast are two very different things.

[jburns]

Well, just to be fair, a car and a winter forecast are two very different things.

True, but the principle is not.

[WilkesboroDude]

Meh'...read the posts above. All major outlets show above normal snowfall as far as we can tell so far.

What more are you wanting to know from his forecast?

Anything more specific is garbage this far out. It's not like he specializes in the South-East either. Believe he is north-east focused even if you did pay for his information.

[GaWx]

Meh'...read the posts above. All major outlets show above normal snowfall as far as we can tell so far.

What more are you wanting to know from his forecast?

Anything more specific is garbage this far out. It's not like he specializes in the South-East either. Believe he is north-east focused even if you did pay for his information.

Actually, snowfall is usually harder to predict than temperatures, especially because it is so hit and miss in the SE....very random. In many places, one multiinch snow is enough to make it snowy. So, I'd rather know the temperature forecast right now. If cold, I'd think chances would be better than average for above normal snowfall in a lot of places. Regardless, it is still a crapshoot even then though at least then the dice are loaded somewhat in one's favor.

I'm personally still optimistic about there being a better than average chance for a cold winter in the SE due to the weak El Nino that is following La Nina though high lat. blocking (-NAO/-AO) wil be crucial.

[WilkesboroDude]

Actually, snowfall is usually harder to predict than temperatures, especially because it is so hit and miss in the SE....very random. In many places, one multiinch snow is enough to make it snowy. So, I'd rather know the temperature forecast right now. If cold, I'd think chances would be better than average for above normal snowfall in a lot of places. Regardless, it is still a crapshoot even then though at least then the dice are loaded somewhat in one's favor.

I'm personally still optimistic about there being a better than average chance for a cold winter in the SE due to the weak El Nino that is following La Nina though high lat. blocking (-NAO/-AO) wil be crucial.

Right, but his forecasts are not South-East orientated so I figured most would imply above normal snowfall with colder than normal temps for our region.

Your not going to see a forecast by him with above normal snowfall in the South-East with it not being colder than normal. Just not going to happen by him anyway.

I meant too specific as in what above normal snowfall means for our region total wise. 1 inch above normal or 1 foot above normal?

[metalicwx366]

I just want a very windy and wet winter. People only get excited if they see above snow and cold in their backyard on a winter forecast. Loved the reactions from last winter lmao. May we see a repeat?

[CandymanColumbusGA]

I just want a very windy and wet winter. People only get excited if they see above snow and cold in their backyard on a winter forecast. Loved the reactions from last winter lmao. May we see a repeat?

I'm with ya! I'd rather see a lot of precipitation, frozen or not, and near normal temperatures. Although... it IS a bit tougher for areas south and east of Atlanta to get in on the snow action, so that's why I say that.

Here's hoping we can get a snow of Feb 9/10, 1973 around here! http://www2.wrbl.com...orm-ar-1358174/

Or a March 1, 2009 snow: http://www.srh.noaa....fc/?n=snow30109

http://www.ocm.aubur... March 1, 2009/

Of course, that event had quite a bit of severe weather out ahead of it... That'll have to be something we watch out for as we exit winter in February/March...

Hell... I remember February 12, 2010 in Tallahassee! That was a great storm, too! That's when I heard my first bit of sleet (that I can remember)! That will always have a special place in my heart.... http://www.srh.noaa....00212-snowstorm

January 8-9, 2010 was also a fascinating snow for the state of Florida... That's when the peninsula saw snow (okay! Flurries... LOL!) while many of the rest of us didn't!

[BIG FROSTY]

Meh'...read the posts above. All major outlets show above normal snowfall as far as we can tell so far.

What more are you wanting to know from his forecast?

Anything more specific is garbage this far out. It's not like he specializes in the South-East either. Believe he is north-east focused even if you did pay for his information.

He has subscribers all across the country, He may have a NE bias but hey that's where he's from plus a lot more population & subscribers up there... But He does forecast for the whole country!!! He is in good agreement with what Larry has been saying he thinks for the SE this winter...

But for those who say he don't forecast for the SE, Why would you want to even know or care what his forecast is?

[BIG FROSTY]

[WilkesboroDude]

He has subscribers all across the country, He may have a NE bias but hey that's where he's from plus a lot more population & subscribers up there... But He does forecast for the whole country!!! He is in good agreement with what Larry has been saying he thinks for the SE this winter...

But for those who say he don't forecast for the SE, Why would you want to even know or care what his forecast is?

I followed a lot of his forecasts in the past, and it seemed like he did not recognize the Appalachian mountain areas in the South-East. Your a subscriber, do you think he recognizes our area fairly? You see way more than I get to see...

I feel like his forecasts are too broad for areas outside of the north-east and Europe.

What does below normal ice/snow mean for the Gulf Coast region, Mexico border, and south-east Georgia really mean? This was one of his old maps back at Accuweather.

Okay, no more JB bashing from me. Carry on guys.

[WilkesboroDude]

NOAA...what cold air?

NOAA...below normal precip over Tennessee and nearby. But the above normal precip looks interesting...looks like it favors storm tracks from the Gulf to at least the OBX.

[BIG FROSTY]

I followed a lot of his forecasts in the past, and it seemed like he did not recognize the Appalachian mountain areas in the South-East. Your a subscriber, do you think he recognizes our area fairly? You see way more than I get to see...

I feel like his forecasts are too broad for areas outside of the north-east and Europe.

What does below normal ice/snow mean for the Gulf Coast region, Mexico border, and south-east Georgia really mean? This was one of his old maps back at Accuweather.

Okay, no more JB bashing from me. Carry on guys.

This is precisely why I didn't and will not post his thoughts anymore! Some of you people NO MATTER WHAT HE SAYS you search and find a reason to bash him... What in the world has this guy done to you all?

[buckeyefan1]

I'm with ya! I'd rather see a lot of precipitation, frozen or not, and near normal temperatures. Although... it IS a bit tougher for areas south and east of Atlanta to get in on the snow action, so that's why I say that.

Here's hoping we can get a snow of Feb 9/10, 1973 around here! http://www2.wrbl.com...orm-ar-1358174/

Or a March 1, 2009 snow: http://www.srh.noaa....fc/?n=snow30109

http://www.ocm.aubur... March 1, 2009/

Of course, that event had quite a bit of severe weather out ahead of it... That'll have to be something we watch out for as we exit winter in February/March...

Hell... I remember February 12, 2010 in Tallahassee! That was a great storm, too! That's when I heard my first bit of sleet (that I can remember)! That will always have a special place in my heart.... http://www.srh.noaa....00212-snowstorm

January 8-9, 2010 was also a fascinating snow for the state of Florida... That's when the peninsula saw snow (okay! Flurries... LOL!) while many of the rest of us didn't!

I'll take my chances this winter with a steady stream of moisture and near normal temps Just one chance is all I ever ask for as these portals that surround me make it difficult for anything frozen to reach the ground

Feb, 2010 was amazing for me also

[Cold Rain]

This is precisely why I didn't and will not post his thoughts anymore! Some of you people NO MATTER WHAT HE SAYS you search and find a reason to bash him... What in the world has this guy done to you all?

I agree...I don't get all the JB bashing. He has an opinion, just like anyone else that makes a forecast. People can use their own judgment as to whether or not he's credible. And if they deem him not to be, then they state scientific reasoning why they oppose it, or they should ignore it and go on about their merry way.

IMO, whether he's right or not, he's entertaining, and he makes weather fun. And the great thing is, I can choose to disagree with him and still enjoy listening to his thoughts. Nobody is forcing me to bash him every time someone mentions his name.

[Met1985]

I agree...I don't get all the JB bashing. He has an opinion, just like anyone else that makes a forecast. People can use their own judgment as to whether or not he's credible. And if they deem him not to be, then they state scientific reasoning why they oppose it, or they should ignore it and go on about their merry way.

IMO, whether he's right or not, he's entertaining, and he makes weather fun. And the great thing is, I can choose to disagree with him and still enjoy listening to his thoughts. Nobody is forcing me to bash him every time someone mentions his name.

Great post. I like to hear everyone's forecast about winter. Like you said it is entertaining. Still a long ways away from winter but hey we have already starting to see our first frost/freeze of the season. Good signs?

[Ellinwood]

Weather is a science, not a form of entertainment. You can incorporate entertainment while discussing the weather, but a forecast should not be made with entertainment as part of the reasoning behind it.

JB is bashed constantly because he often uses horrible/non-existent science and latches on to whatever misguided model might agree with a weather pattern that will get him hits. Yes, JB's forecasts are often "entertaining" (usually because it's in the form of watching a train wreck), but as far as the actual forecasts go, there is a lot to be desired.

[WilkesboroDude]

Weather is a science, not a form of entertainment. You can incorporate entertainment while discussing the weather, but a forecast should not be made with entertainment as part of the reasoning behind it.

JB is bashed constantly because he often uses horrible/non-existent science and latches on to whatever misguided model might agree with a weather pattern that will get him hits. Yes, JB's forecasts are often "entertaining" (usually because it's in the form of watching a train wreck), but as far as the actual forecasts go, there is a lot to be desired.

I agree with this.

I honestly think he forecasts just to be different from the rest and to present the dooms day scenario every time. Sure does draw attention though.

[nrgjeff]

Lots of talk on Page 12 about Nino vs PDO, and rightfully so. Funny how we are obsessed with Nino which will be a weak signal either way. The -PDO is a warm signal for the Southeast. We could see a very -PDO and a meh Nino. That combo (PDO focus) is mild down here. Can't post chart from subscription service. Precip is still above normal, rain at lower elevations, but I'm hoping for good things in the ski areas. Statistically it's very unlikely winter will be as depressing (for snow fans) as last year, but I don't expect another 10/11 or 09/10 either.

There is no reason to speculate about the unpredictable NAO now. The more streaky AO (monthly average, not this current 6-15 fcst) is currently averaging positive. It could flip negative late winter. However being frank and brutally honest, the PDO is a much more reliable signal this far (months) out. For now, from a strictly data-driven perspective, I have to go mild/normal temps. Let's hope for the best in the mountain ski areas.

[buckeyefan1]

Weather is a science, not a form of entertainment. You can incorporate entertainment while discussing the weather, but a forecast should not be made with entertainment as part of the reasoning behind it.

JB is bashed constantly because he often uses horrible/non-existent science and latches on to whatever misguided model might agree with a weather pattern that will get him hits. Yes, JB's forecasts are often "entertaining" (usually because it's in the form of watching a train wreck), but as far as the actual forecasts go, there is a lot to be desired.

Well said

Now can we please discuss winter and not JB

[dsaur]

CandyMan, I have to agree. I'd like to see the gulf open up, with training lows coming up into Fla. and take my chances on cold being here in Ga. Even last winter there were a few days when it was cold enough to sustain frozen precip. but it didn't rain those nights After all these years I've determined it is a rain pattern I need to be hoping for. It is always cold in winter, at least a few days, but it is so very hard to get sleet into a severe, even if very cold, drought

Larry, we weather enthuiasts have become very discerning..read: spoiled... and we require much more specific forecasts. Such as how many inches for Sav. this year, and in which 10 day period will my 6 inch sleet fall? We are busy people these days and need to make plans. Knowing which nights it will go down below 20 will help me be sure to know when to drain the pipes should I be out of town, but knowing which periods will have the frozen precip. is most important, as I get antsy waiting for nature to take it's course, lol. And antsy is bad for my delicate physical and mental constitution. Sure knowledge would ease my angst.

Meanwhile, I pulled out another blanket last night, so that's a start!! T

[griteater]

We could see a very -PDO and a meh Nino.

Very much agree. While there will be fluctuations in the coming months, in the end, I think we are looking at a solidly negative PDO and a meh Nino.

[GaWx]

Very much agree. While there will be fluctuations in the coming months, in the end, I think we are looking at a solidly negative PDO and a meh Nino.

I agree that the odds are against a +PDO in DJF. However, I'm still giving it a 1 in 3 chance. (As I've been saying) if we can get a +PDO/-NAO combo together with what I expect to be a weak Nino peak (which we already know followed a Nina), the prospects for a cold winter would be much higher than average. (Actually, even a -PDO/-NAO with a weak Nino following a Nina would give us good prospects...cold on average but not as cold as +PDO/-NAO..but with better snowfall prospects than average). There is some encouraging short-term news regarding the PDO:

Here is an excellent link to an animation of the most recent two weeks of SST anom.'s:

http://www.esrl.noaa....anim.week.html

1) PDO: One can see very clearly how much it has cooled over the last two weeks in the area south of the Aleutians from ~37-45N, 150W-170E. Although Jerry (weathafella) and I had already noted some cooling around 40N, 170W, in recent days, this movie shows that the area that cooled was much bigger than I had realized and with significant magnitude. It has also warmed some in the Gulf of Alaska. This cooling/warming combo tells me that the PDO has risen significantly over the last two weeks. This is telling me that the recent -EPO has probably helped warm the PDO (that chicken-egg thing). As it stands now, I feel safe in saying that the Sep 2012 PDO (which is averaged over the entire month) will likely come in a good bit less negative than Aug 2012. I have been going with only about a 1 in 3 chance for the upcoming DJF PDO to average positive. I'm not changing that yet. However, IF the recent increasing PDO trends were to continue well into October (even at a slower pace). I would then probably raise the chance to close to ~1 in 2. OTOH, the EPO looks to go into a more positive phase for at least a week or so. Let's see whether or not that reverses much of the recent PDO increases.

2) Nino 3.4: One can clearly see how much 3.4 cooled from 9/13-18. This cooling was well reflected in the cooler weekly released today (+0.3 vs. +0.5), which covers the avg. anom. for the cal. week 9/16-22. However, it then steadied out ~9/19-22 and 9/23 showed rather sig. warming in the southern portion of 3.4. If this rewarming continues for at least a few days, next Monday's 3.4 anom. (which will cover 9/23-9) would almost certainly be warmer than +0.3.

[WilkesboroDude]

What is everyone's take on the NOAA 3 month outlooks for temps/precip?

Out to lunch? Good?

[tnweathernut]

I am in the camp that it will continue to rise and average slightly negative, which shouldn't have near the impact that a strongly negative PDO would have in conjunction with our weak NAO.

[Jon]

What is everyone's take on the NOAA 3 month outlooks for temps/precip?

Out to lunch? Good?

Hopefully OTL? I can't find last month's version to save my life....but I found this:

Ensemble Canonical Correlation Analysis (ECCA)

Predictors used:

• 200mb global velocity potential
  
• global sea surface temperatures
  
• sea level pressure (north of 40N)
  

The ECCA uses Canonical Correlation Analysis (CCA), an empirical statistical method that finds patterns of predictors (variables used to make the prediction) and predictands (variables to be predicted) that maximize the correlation between them. The most recent available predictor data for different atmospheric/oceanic variables are projected onto the loading patterns to create forecasts. The ensemble refers to forecasts produced by using each predictor separately to create a forecast.

Looks better, but I'm not good at statistics so I have no idea what it means