GaWx Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 You probably should discuss this in the climate change thread We have some very knowledgeable people there who could answer your questions for you. Where have you been? I've been doing just that with regard to the quieting sun in general for almost two years in this thread: http://www.americanw...l-things-solar/ We've had some great discussions. You probably should check it out some time. This is an exciting time due to the extra climatic uncertainty resulting from the current grand solar min. I'll have a better feel for the potential cooling effects in the N Hem. from the quieter sun by ~2017-8. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 Yes, the period 1875-1915 experienced a solar min. not seen since the end of the Little Ice Age. The avg. global temp. dropped from 1880 through 1910. I strongly suspect a connection. The sun is now down to levels seen during that min. and quite possibly will make it down to levels not seen since the end of the Little Ice Age between now and the 2040's. Assuming this verifies, I do wonder how much the globe will cool between now and ~2030 as a result of it despite the recent global warming. I feel a lot of uncertainty with regard to the role of the very active sun of the 1950-2000 period, the most active of the last 350+ years, in the late 20th century warming. Many mainly blame humans for the bulk of it. Although quite possibly true, I just don't feel comfy assuming that is definitely true. Also, note that the southern hem. hasn't been experiencing the warming that the N hem. has been experiencing. Is the recent S Hem. trend a warning of what the N hem. is about to experience? I don't know, but I do wonder. By the way, if anything the SE US has probably been experiencing cooling overall in the winters since 2000. Also, look at the three straight KATL winters with a major S/IP fwiw. That hadn't occurred since the 1893-5! Was this random? Probably but I do wonder about it some due to how rare it occurs. I've often wondered if the industrial revolution made for micro climes in England, in particular. We just don't have the info necessary to see the big patterns with respect to local ones. Ice core sampling can tell us a lot about global patterns. Too bad earth, or tree rings, don't give us a good sampling of temps, and local patterns, beyond dry, or wet spells. There is a lot of work going on transcribing ships logs to glean patterns, but so much is going on on a micro pattern scale. Just watching NC and Tenn getting 2 or 3 times the rain I am, and it's just a few hundred miles away. The west and mid west seem to be in drought all the time, but not necessarily everyone else. It is seeing the big pattern and translating that down to neighborhoods, is what will be interesting for our g,g grand kids As for the present minimum, I guess we won't know how impacting it was 'til after it is over for a while The 60's cured me for wanting the bitter cold above all else, because so many times it drives off the moisture. The best storms are the ones where it is borderline, hits that magic nexus, and turns off bitter the next day. I can't remember too many like SnoJam that had the bitter cold waiting. I remember fretting for days about whether that low would come out quick enough for some cold to be left It rarely works out like that. It is either warm out ahead, or warm after, but to be bitter throughout is so unusual here. And witness how the city reacted to that. They all went to work thinking it will start to snow mid afternoon, so we can get a half day off, not thinking that anything that fell would ice the roads immediately. Because it never does that I was out driving around down here, waiting for it to start, and whammo the roads got squirrelly instantly, lol. My guess is if we are cooling in winter, we'll see more of those. And these late snows.. Hard to figure that. Is it a matter of timing, in threes, or was something making it more probable. Not every upper low does that to us. Just can't get far enough away, or get close enough to ascertain patterns, and reasons for them. Have you been able to chart the advent of that minimum with the winters in Ga? Like how long for the setup to start to produce good weather? Tony Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 Where have you been? I've been doing just that with regard to the quieting sun in general for almost two years in this thread: http://www.americanw...l-things-solar/ We've had some great discussions. You probably should check it out some time. This is an exciting time due to the extra climatic uncertainty resulting from the current grand solar min. I'll have a better feel for the potential cooling effects in the N Hem. from the quieter sun by ~2017-8. Elsewhere apparently. My mistake! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quixotic1 Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 Yes, the period 1875-1915 experienced a solar min. not seen since the end of the Little Ice Age. The avg. global temp. dropped from 1880 through 1910. I strongly suspect a connection. Krakatoa probably had some impact as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY18 Posted September 19, 2012 Share Posted September 19, 2012 Has anybody done any research on slightly neg pdo/ weak nino winters I would imagine there's not many that have been recorded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cloudcrash619 Posted September 19, 2012 Share Posted September 19, 2012 Has anybody done any research on slightly neg pdo/ weak nino winters I would imagine there's not many that have been recorded. If I'm not mistaken, they took place during the winters of 76-77 and 09-10. Those were both cold and snowy winters, especially 1977, one for the record books. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 19, 2012 Share Posted September 19, 2012 If I'm not mistaken, they took place during the winters of 76-77 and 09-10. Those were both cold and snowy winters, especially 1977, one for the record books. They were both great winters as far as intense cold is concerned. 76-77 was a weak Nino as well as the coldest in Atlanta's history. The 2nd coldest was 1977-8, another weak Nino! All three had a +PDO for the DJF avg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 19, 2012 Share Posted September 19, 2012 Has anybody done any research on slightly neg pdo/ weak nino winters I would imagine there's not many that have been recorded. On 9/14, I presented the PDO breakdown for weak Ninos following La Ninas here: http://www.americanw...50#entry1745146 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY18 Posted September 19, 2012 Share Posted September 19, 2012 On 9/14, I presented the PDO breakdown for weak Ninos following La Ninas here: http://www.americanw...50#entry1745146 Thank you, sorry I didn't see it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted September 19, 2012 Share Posted September 19, 2012 DT has a write-up on the struggles of this El Nino to get established (http://www.wxrisk.co...t-damn-el-nino/), but I'm almost certain he's off his rocker with his GWO (Global Wind Oscillation) chart. He's stating that the GWO is going back and forth between La Nina and El Nino (he has La Nina as phases 8-1, and El Nino as phases 4-5), when I'm almost certain that La Nina is represented by phases 2-3 (stage 10), and El Nino is represented by phases 6-7 (stage 30). So, in reality the GWO has been in La Nina land for a while now, not going back and forth between La Nina and El Nino as he states. Having said all of that, if you look back at other El Nino years, particularly the weak and moderate ones, it's not uncommon for the GWO / GLAAM to swing back and forth between varying phases / stages at this time of year, with the Nino phase becoming more predominant as you get deeper into winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Psalm 148:8 Posted September 20, 2012 Share Posted September 20, 2012 DT has a write-up on the struggles of this El Nino to get established (http://www.wxrisk.co...t-damn-el-nino/), but I'm almost certain he's off his rocker with his GWO (Global Wind Oscillation) chart. He's stating that the GWO is going back and forth between La Nina and El Nino (he has La Nina as phases 8-1, and El Nino as phases 4-5), when I'm almost certain that La Nina is represented by phases 2-3 (stage 10), and El Nino is represented by phases 6-7 (stage 30). So, in reality the GWO has been in La Nina land for a while now, not going back and forth between La Nina and El Nino as he states. Having said all of that, if you look back at other El Nino years, particularly the weak and moderate ones, it's not uncommon for the GWO / GLAAM to swing back and forth between varying phases / stages at this time of year, with the Nino phase becoming more predominant as you get deeper into winter. Yea...what he said....LOL!!!! I didn't understand a word of that... How bout Chronos, Eschatos, Kairos, Telos, Aion.???? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted September 20, 2012 Share Posted September 20, 2012 Maybe the year of the "WEDGE"?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted September 20, 2012 Share Posted September 20, 2012 Maybe the year of the "WEDGE"?? I hope not. I seem to remember a year of the "wedgie" when I was in school. It was hell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted September 20, 2012 Share Posted September 20, 2012 Maybe the year of the "WEDGE"?? One winter it will happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted September 20, 2012 Share Posted September 20, 2012 Let's hope it isn't "wedge" in a few hours of cold again, like the recent years worth of days of mostly summer. I mean, for all intents it's been largely summer, and spring since Sept of last year. We get a great new solar minimum, and what happens in Ga? The year without a winter............... or rain T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted September 20, 2012 Share Posted September 20, 2012 Latest ENSO plumes are out on CPC/IRI site - http://iri.columbia.edu/climate/ENSO/currentinfo/SST_table.html Average of all models yields 0.7, 0.8, 0.8, 0.7, 0.6 for SON through JFM....i.e. a middle of the road weak El Nino....trend is cooler with the SST's from previous months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted September 22, 2012 Share Posted September 22, 2012 Looks like JB has posted his winter forecast over at weatherbell. Can someone with WB access give us a summary? TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted September 22, 2012 Share Posted September 22, 2012 Looks like JB has posted his winter forecast over at weatherbell. Can someone with WB access give us a summary? TW Pm me, I would post it, but due to probably turning this into a bashing thread I want!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
featherwx Posted September 22, 2012 Share Posted September 22, 2012 Pm me, I would post it, but due to probably turning this into a bashing thread I want!!! Same, I'd also like to see it, even though I don't agree with most of the stuff that comes out of JB's mouth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted September 22, 2012 Share Posted September 22, 2012 Copy/Paste it over to me as well please if you have time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted September 22, 2012 Share Posted September 22, 2012 Pm me, I would post it, but due to probably turning this into a bashing thread I want!!! Look, many of us are happy to read any winter forecast. If someone wants to bash JB (justly or unjustly), then that's their own issue. I've said before that I don't agree with all the vitriol regarding certain forecasters, but the fact is that some just can't resist picking on an individual's every mistake. I like a reasoned disagreement and debate regarding forecasts, but I don't understand rash words without facts to back them up. We all have our biases, and JB's is the NE. No one is completely without bias. We deal with it. All that being said, I know you can't publish the exact forecast due to Weatherbell being a for-profit site, but a short synopsis would be nice. It's fine by me if you're a JB fan. I won't shoot any messenger whether I like the forecast or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted September 22, 2012 Share Posted September 22, 2012 Look, many of us are happy to read any winter forecast. If someone wants to bash JB (justly or unjustly), then that's their own issue. I've said before that I don't agree with all the vitriol regarding certain forecasters, but the fact is that some just can't resist picking on an individual's every mistake. I like a reasoned disagreement and debate regarding forecasts, but I don't understand rash words without facts to back them up. We all have our biases, and JB's is the NE. No one is completely without bias. We deal with it. All that being said, I know you can't publish the exact forecast due to Weatherbell being a for-profit site, but a short synopsis would be nice. It's fine by me if you're a JB fan. I won't shoot any messenger whether I like the forecast or not. I will tell you that the most accurate forecaster on here has seen it and they agreed with it as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted September 22, 2012 Share Posted September 22, 2012 I will tell you that the most accurate forecaster on here has seen it and they agreed with it as well What he said! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted September 22, 2012 Share Posted September 22, 2012 ^ ok, give the rest of us a hint then! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted September 22, 2012 Share Posted September 22, 2012 I approve of JB's winter forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted September 23, 2012 Share Posted September 23, 2012 I approve of JB's winter forecast. i think since we are the ones that waste our money that we should just keep the misleading forecast to ourselves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted September 23, 2012 Share Posted September 23, 2012 Looking at the latest EUROSIP Multi-Model Forecast, here's how I'd estimate the ONI based on the charts provided - http://www.ecmwf.int...ic!3.4!201209!/ JJA – 0.5 JAS – 0.6 ASO – 0.6 SON – 0.6 OND – 0.6 NDJ – 0.5 DJF – 0.3 That would qualify as a low end weak El Nino. Again, the trends continue to be cooler with the model forecasted sea surface temperatures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted September 23, 2012 Share Posted September 23, 2012 i think since we are the ones that waste our money that we should just keep the misleading forecast to ourselves. I ordered another plow so hopefully I will get to use it. Doesn't matter what or who's forecast we look at it definitely won't be as bad as last year's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted September 23, 2012 Share Posted September 23, 2012 I ordered another plow so hopefully I will get to use it. Doesn't matter what or who's forecast we look at it definitely won't be as bad as last year's Jason: Hope things are well brother and sure hope all your plows get a work out for 3 solid months this winter! It won't be long before it is here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted September 23, 2012 Share Posted September 23, 2012 I ordered another plow so hopefully I will get to use it. Doesn't matter what or who's forecast we look at it definitely won't be as bad as last year's I am having a hard time finding a forecast that does not show us having above normal snowfall. Can someone link me to some forecasts that show our area having a terrible winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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