The 2012-2013 Winter Outlook Thread

[jburns]

Can someone judge this worm I found today

No way it will win. It looks like Miss Congeniality at best.

[metalicwx366]

That's a caterpillar.

This made me laugh.

[Quixotic1]

Can someone judge this worm I found today and tell me what significance it has...mild...cold...etc...?

Tiger moth caterpillar. According to folklore, mild. According to me, not a thing.

[Cold Rain]

Based on my obs., It is clear that most SE posters' #1 winter priority is heavier than average snow. The cold is quite secondary for most of these posters as many have admitted. They seem to want the cold only to enhance the snow chances and to lengthen the amount of time on the ground. These folks would rather have mild and snowless rather than cold and snowless.

Some like ZR, but not nearly as many as like snow. A few like IP as much as, if not more than, snow.

Personally, I'm content with just about anything: snow, IP, ZR, cold, and even the nice SE US warmups between the cold. The only kind of winter I don't like is a mild one with no wintry precip. because that's boring.

I love the cold. In order, I like:

1. Cold and snowy

2. Cold and wet

3. Cold and cloudy

4. Cold and foggy

5. Cold and dry/sunny

[Local Yokel Wx]

Wilksboro Dude....

There should be 14 rings denoting the 14 weeks of winter. Black is representing cold and snowy, while brown is mild and dry. So it looks like we kick off the season well and then go mild, to go back to cold and snow at the end.

[griteater]

August PDO reading is in at -1.93. That's the third most negative August value ever (since 1900). A negative PDO this fall/winter looks like a good bet given the strong positive anomalies that have and continue to be in place south of the Aleutians.

[mackerel_sky]

Is this good if we want cold and snow?

August PDO reading is in at -1.93. That's the third most negative August value ever (since 1900). A negative PDO this fall/winter looks like a good bet given the strong positive anomalies that have and continue to be in place south of the Aleutians.

[SoCoWx]

Is this good if we want cold and snow?

You want the PDO to be more neutral or even spike positive during Winter for good winter weather.

It's not a critical part of the puzzle, but it does help a lot.

[griteater]

+PDO is more favorable for cold/snow, but as always, the AO and NAO will have a huge say.

A solidly negative PDO in NINO or NEUTRAL ENSO winters definitely favors a long wave pattern of an Aleutian ridge and Western North America trough (-PNA), with average or above normal heights in the southeast.

A solidly positive PDO in NINO or NEUTRAL ENSO winters favors an Aleutian trough and Western North America ridge (+PNA), with below normal heights in the southeast. A split flow in the eastern Pacific with a healthy subtropical jet is the favored recipe for widespread wintry precip in the southeast. The stronger the NINO, the stronger and farther south the subtropical jet typically sets up.

The composites below cover Weak/Moderate NINO & NEUTRAL ENSO years – one for solidly –PDO winters and the other for solidly +PDO winters (since 1949).

I crunched a few numbers for Charlotte going back to 1900, and the –PDO / Weak & Moderate NINO & NEUTRAL ENSO years yielded near normal winter temps (for DJFM) and near normal snowfall (against long term averages). The +PDO / Weak & Moderate NINO & NEUTRAL ENSO years yielded below normal temps and near normal snowfall.

[griteater]

Here's a study that talks about the PDO and its impact on the North America climate - http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~mantua/REPORTS/PDO/PDO_cs.htm

[GaWx]

August PDO reading is in at -1.93. That's the third most negative August value ever (since 1900). A negative PDO this fall/winter looks like a good bet given the strong positive anomalies that have and continue to be in place south of the Aleutians.

I won't argue with you about the "good bet" of a -PDO for the DJF avg due to both it being strongly negative this summer and being in a pretty strong -PDO regime. In other words, why bet against the persistent -PDO? Regardless, note the following very cold winter weak Nino analogs that followed a Nina that had a sharp PDO reversal:

- 1904-5: had a similarly strongly negative PDO to 2012 the preceding summer and switched to a +PDO by the autumn that persisted through the winter

- 1939-40: Aug.-Nov. all were solidly -PDO months and were immediately followed by a DJF that had the 5th most +PDO for the period 1900-2012

- 1976-7: the entire period 1/1975-6/1976 had a solidly -PDO. By 8/1976, it had already turned to a solidly +PDO, which persisted through 3/1977. The strong +PNA pattern started during 9/1976 and persisted through the rest of fall and in the winter.

So, although the odds of a switch to a DJF +PDO aren't good, history during weak ninos that follow Ninas says that there is a reasonable chance for the PDO to reverse much more quickly than what one might expect. This also brings up this Q: is there somewhat of a chicken-egg situation with the cold eastern US/warm western US producing +PNA and +PDO? Is it possible that that is the main reason the three cited years switched so abruptly? With a +PNA, which is favored by weak Ninos, the western US/E Pacific/Gulf of Alaska tends to be ridgey, which makes it warmish/stormless for those areas. Maybe that warmth and lack of storms in the E Pac./Gulf of Alaska tends to raise E Pac./Gulf of Alaska SST's?? If so, that would. itself, raise the PDO as that is half of the formula. Also, that same pattern may favor cooling the central Pacific SST's. That also would raise the PDO further.

Note that the last five Ninos and 25 of the 33 since 1900 had a +PDO for the DJF average. Now, granted, only 6 of those 25 had a -PDO for the JJA avg and only 6 of the 25 had a -PDO for the SON avg. So, admittedly, the odds aren't good for a switch.

Nevertheless, note 2005-6, a non-Nino: -1.50 PDO in Nov. rose rapidly to +1.03 in Jan. Sure enough, 12/2005 was cold in the east, suggesting a +PNA. I then looked at the PNA table and, bingo, it was +1.38 in 12/2005. In 9/1933, another non-Nino, it was -2.28. It skyrocketed to +0.55 in Nov. 11/1933 was chilly in the NE and cool in much of the SE and MW while warm out west, suggesting a +PNA (PNA table goes back only to 1950). What caused those rapid PDO changes? The +PNA or something else?

Let's see if things change much in the Pacific over the next couple of weeks as the strong ridge develops and persists over the E Pac./Gulf of Alaska. That will be a good first test of the +PNA/+PDO chicken egg idea.

I'm currently going with a 2 out of 3 chance that the DJF PDO will avg. negative. So, the odds of a switch are fairly low but not very low by any means. Also, IF it does switch, look out for a good shot at a very cold winter if there ends up being a DJF averaged -NAO.

[HKY_WX]

The PDO was negative pretty much the entire decade of the 60's and those were the best winters. The -AO/-PDO combo can be a great combo.

[GaWx]

The PDO was negative pretty much the entire decade of the 60's and those were the best winters. The -AO/-PDO combo can be a great combo.

Good point. I agree that a -AO/-PDO winter can still be quite cold, especially if there's a weak Nino. The 1960's -PDO winters were, indeed, good overall in terms of cold. There were eight straight -PDO winters from 1961-2 through 1968-9 and six of them were cool to very cold in the SE US. All of them had a -AO for the DJF avg. and 7 of the 8 had a -NAO DJF (one was neutral). Only 1961-2 and 1964-5 weren't chilly. Both of the weak Nino's during this eight year period, 1963-4 and 1968-9, were cold with a -PDO/-NAO/-AO combo. KATL did well with S/IP vs. the ~2" longterm avg.: 3.6" in 1963-4 and 2.2" in 1968-9.

The good news is that we're almost definitely going to have a weak Nino peak this fall /winter and we already know it followed a Nina. Now, if I want the best shot at a very cold winter during a weak Nino that follows a Nina, I'd certainly hope for a +PDO for DJF (along with a -AO/-NAO, of course) as these charts illustrate well:

+PDO weak Nino winters that followed a Nina (all three very cold; ATL: avg. S/IP: 3.4"; two had major ZR(s)):

-PDO weak Nino winters that followed a Nina (3 of 4 cold and one very cold; only 1951-2 stank but it still had major S; ATL: avg. S/IP: 3.7"; 1 of 4 had major ZR):

-PDO weak Nino winters that followed a Nina excluding 1951-2:

[843wx]

I had 80+ inches of snow at my house during the Winter of 2009-10 in Northwest Virginia...LOL

Then i moved to SC in April 2011. I thought i wouldn't miss Winter weather at all, but i sure did. You just gotta have the 4 distinct seasons. It makes you feel good. Warm sunny Winters are just plain boring...HAHA

I hope we get sustained troughiness in the East this Winter.

[SN_Lover]

The animals by my house are going CRAZY. They ate everyone's tomatoes and cucumbers in our neighborhood. We even had a chipmunk up in our bird feeder. i would really like to know why the animals are acting so aggressive!

[buckeyefan1]

I had 80+ inches of snow at my house during the Winter of 2009-10 in Northwest Virginia...LOL

Then i moved to SC in April 2011. I thought i wouldn't miss Winter weather at all, but i sure did. You just gotta have the 4 distinct seasons. It makes you feel good. Warm sunny Winters are just plain boring...HAHA

I hope we get sustained troughiness in the East this Winter.

Welcome 843...where in SC are you?

The animals by my house are going CRAZY. They ate everyone's tomatoes and cucumbers in our neighborhood. We even had a chipmunk up in our bird feeder. i would really like to know why the animals are acting so aggressive!

Rabies?

[Aubighitter]

Pay attention to the animals. That is all.

[dsaur]

Lol, rabies. Girl, you did good with that one!

Larry, I can't believe I'm doing this, and I know you won't either, but I badly need a big zrain this winter. And I need it much, much colder. I was out to the back line today checking the fence, having not visited since March, because of the snakes I kept running into, and I have never seen the undergrowth so dense. 18 month growing seasons will wreck havock on the normal undergrowth, and worse, the trees are dropping widow makers with amazing regularity now. There is dead stuff up there that desperately needs thinnning. The last zrain we had here was 05, and it was great for sledding, but didn't do anything for the trees, as it was a sleet/zrain mix and didn't coat the trees with enough weight. The one before that was in 00, and it wasn't all that big either. I'm afraid I need at least an inch of zrain, some big winds, and some bitter cold, for forestry conservation, and maintance. I am having to wear a hard hat when I'm under the canopy. Seriously, I've been barely missed several time in the last two weeks, and more than that thru the summer. I've never seen it like this in the 12 years I've been on this place.

Now, I know you've been into the Zen Ice Cream, and are feeling particularly mellow, and thus content, with a come what may approach, but I really need you to get focused on getting us the climo necessary to bring about some fierce cold, and some zrain as well as the huge sleet storm I'm getting, and the snow that will cover the SE for all snow lovers.

Now, I know you don't control the weather with your climo studies, but numbers have power, and I have reason to believe your intense research into the mathmatics of weather, has revealed to you a profound understanding, and an insight into the chaos beneath the climatological data....witness your recent call for Sav. snow. I mean, who calls for snow in Savannah, except a man of mysterious talents, lol. Soooo....I've got the moles working on the sleet, but I can't bring myself to work for the hated zrain, even though I need it. Thus my humble request for you to please help in this effort We need the positive pac, to go with the neg Atlantic, so please keep working hard so our changes are maximized! Thanks, T

[SN_Lover]

Rabies?

Hope not O.O

[843wx]

Welcome 843...where in SC are you?

Hey buddy. Thank you.. I'm in Myrtle Beach.

Rabies?

[burgertime]

That's a caterpillar.

I haven't laughed this hard from a post in a long long time.

[griteater]

The PDO was negative pretty much the entire decade of the 60's and those were the best winters. The -AO/-PDO combo can be a great combo.

Now, if I want the best shot at a very cold winter during a weak Nino that follows a Nina, I'd certainly hope for a +PDO for DJF (along with a -AO/-NAO, of course) as these charts illustrate well:

+PDO weak Nino winters that followed a Nina (all three very cold; ATL: avg. S/IP: 3.4"; two had major ZR(s))

-PDO weak Nino winters that followed a Nina (3 of 4 cold and one very cold; only 1951-2 stank but it still had major S; ATL: avg. S/IP: 3.7"; 1 of 4 had major ZR)

Yeah, you can overcome a lot with a solidly -AO/-NAO. For cold, the +PDO (+PNA) is favored. For snow, my take is that it depends on how strong the Nino is. In a +PDO (+PNA) setup, you need a stronger subtropical jet associated with stronger Ninos (moderate / strong) to undercut / overcome the western N America ridging to eject southern stream shortwaves into the desert southwest, from where the waves can track east into the established eastern trough. Getting that type of southern stream setup becomes a bit more difficult with a weaker subtropical jet associated with weak Nino or neutral years. A -PDO (-PNA) setup may in fact be more favorable for SE snow in weaker Ninos and neutral years since it would lend itself to getting shortwaves into the desert southwest via western N America troughing...from there you would need strong -NAO blocking to keep the system suppressed and tracking into the southern Plains / southeast states.

[Psalm 148:8]

I am excited and can't wait for December! I'm with you tony.,.. Bring on a good ZR storm! Little sleet.... Them a changeover to a few inches of snow...I would act like a kid again! And wouldn't care who thought I was one sandwich shy of a picnic basket.

[GaWx]

Larry, I can't believe I'm doing this, and I know you won't either, but I badly need a big zrain this winter. And I need it much, much colder. I was out to the back line today checking the fence, having not visited since March, because of the snakes I kept running into, and I have never seen the undergrowth so dense. 18 month growing seasons will wreck havock on the normal undergrowth, and worse, the trees are dropping widow makers with amazing regularity now. There is dead stuff up there that desperately needs thinnning. The last zrain we had here was 05, and it was great for sledding, but didn't do anything for the trees, as it was a sleet/zrain mix and didn't coat the trees with enough weight. The one before that was in 00, and it wasn't all that big either. I'm afraid I need at least an inch of zrain, some big winds, and some bitter cold, for forestry conservation, and maintance. I am having to wear a hard hat when I'm under the canopy. Seriously, I've been barely missed several time in the last two weeks, and more than that thru the summer. I've never seen it like this in the 12 years I've been on this place.

Now, I know you've been into the Zen Ice Cream, and are feeling particularly mellow, and thus content, with a come what may approach, but I really need you to get focused on getting us the climo necessary to bring about some fierce cold, and some zrain as well as the huge sleet storm I'm getting, and the snow that will cover the SE for all snow lovers.

Now, I know you don't control the weather with your climo studies, but numbers have power, and I have reason to believe your intense research into the mathmatics of weather, has revealed to you a profound understanding, and an insight into the chaos beneath the climatological data....witness your recent call for Sav. snow. I mean, who calls for snow in Savannah, except a man of mysterious talents, lol. Soooo....I've got the moles working on the sleet, but I can't bring myself to work for the hated zrain, even though I need it. Thus my humble request for you to please help in this effort We need the positive pac, to go with the neg Atlantic, so please keep working hard so our changes are maximized! Thanks, T

Tony, Tony, Tony, OMG, did you catch a fever from the moles? You want ZR?

You don't ask for much! What you need, sir is a good dose of 1939-40, especially Jan '40. That +PDO weak nino winter winter featured a Jan. that was the coldest month on record, a major ZR early, and a huge snow late (10" downtown). No IP storm though. Let me see....hmmm...well, how about 1981-2 snowjam, which was a combo of extreme cold, S, IP, and ZR. Well, oops, that won't work as it wasn't even an El Nino ...hmmmm. let's see....how about 1935-6? That winter had extreme cold, a big 8"+ snow, a boatload of rain, and not one, but two major ZR's......but alas, it didn't have a major IP and worse, it wasn't an El Nino...it was neutral positive just missing weak Nino status. OK, let's see....let's look at 1917-8. That had intense cold, a major ZR in Jan, and a major IP (4.5" of mainly IP) mixed with some snow. Would that suit you? Oh wait that was a neutral negative. It is DQ'ed. OK, I may have the answer....1884-5. It was cold, it had a major ZR in Jan., it had 2-2.5" of IP after the ZR, and it had 7" of S in Feb! It was fantastic!!! Oh cr*p@!@!!! It was a neutral positive just barely missing weak Nino status just like 1935-6. I need to eat some ice cream ASAP.

[FoothillsNC]

The PDO was negative pretty much the entire decade of the 60's and those were the best winters. The -AO/-PDO combo can be a great combo.

very true. Just looking at the graph you get the basic idea of how the 50's, 60's and 70's were mostly negative PDO, and for the northern parts of the Southeast from Atlanta northward was pretty good for Winter (snow and ice). Especially in NC. But the PDO cycles aren't certain, as they can abruptly change. It's like Larry's chicken/egg question and how it relates to ENSO status. And the last decade or two has seen multi-year spikes of reversals, whereas the 1960's streak didn't show those spikes, so there's a lot of questions on how PDO works and it's cause. I surely wouldn't put too much faith in the very broad generality of "Warm PDO=Cold Southeast" or "Cold PDO=Warm Southeast"...obviously we have had good Winters with both regimes..A lot more depends on AMO and NAO signs. With a weak Nino, and negative PDO, I think the odd's are pretty high that split flow will be common this Winter, and looking at the long term trend of NAO signs and how that affects the pattern could mean this Winter is a good one, possibly extremely good if you like cold and wintry precip. There's been 7 to 8 good, distinct -NAO patterns since early Spring , about to make it number 9. We'll see if they show up this Winter.

[griteater]

This Nino has taken a beating over the last month. I suspect we will see some cooling in the Nino 3.4 value reported for this week. In spite of that, the CFS forecast has been consistent in showing the potential for increased low level westerlies in the Nino regions (yellow and orange shading between 160E and 90W) which would induce SST warming if it occurs.

Source: http://www.atmos.alb....php?lat=75S75N

[GaWx]

This Nino has taken a beating over the last month. I suspect we will see some cooling in the Nino 3.4 value reported for this week. In spite of that, the CFS forecast has been consistent in showing the potential for increased low level westerlies in the Nino regions (yellow and orange shading between 160E and 90W) which would induce SST warming if it occurs.

All signs, like these (struggling to warm followed by later warming) continue to point in the direction of a weak Nino peak this fall/winter. Actually, if one compares PDO regimes, weak Ninos are more common and strong Ninos less common during -PDO regimes. Many of the Ninos that would have gone on to be strong wimp out during -PDO regimes and peak as weak.

[dsaur]

Psalm, we have been shorted, you and I, in the winter precip. department, except for those spring snows. I think, if it gets cold this winter, it might be our time coming All I know is then next good fall of whatever we get, better be falling into some very cold air. I'm tired of melting snow...I want some won't go away snow, lol.

Larry, my analog favorites are 1884/85, and 39/40, but what I'm wanting, I guess hasn't happened during record keeping times. I wonder why the late 1880's were good down here, for frozen stuff. Too late for being a part of the "little ice age". I wonder if there was a smaller minimum going on, or a volcano? Something to set up unusual moisture, and cold patterns. The 1960s, I always think of as cold years, but I don't remember many big storms, in fact it seemed dry to me, so just cold didn't do it. I was just getting into tracking storms ( as little as that was possible), and remember seeing bitter cold show up, and thinking how dry it always was when that cold arrived. Some of the storms I remember from the 60's were ones that came on the tail end of a warm up. It has taken a split flow to get the multiple storms I remember, but a repeating pattern of cold and moist, over the winter should do it, with the ever needed timing. But winters with 3 or 4 majors across Ga. seem sadly lacking, not unlike the 1 footers.

Sorry to force you to the Zen Ice, but I needed to know you were focused this year. We can't have a repeat of last year.....ever, lol. T

[GaWx]

I wonder why the late 1880's were good down here, for frozen stuff. Too late for being a part of the "little ice age". I wonder if there was a smaller minimum going on, or a volcano?

Yes, the period 1875-1915 experienced a solar min. not seen since the end of the Little Ice Age. The avg. global temp. dropped from 1880 through 1910. I strongly suspect a connection. The sun is now down to levels seen during that min. and

quite possibly will make it down to levels not seen since the end of the Little Ice Age between now and the 2040's. Assuming this verifies, I do wonder how much the globe will cool between now and ~2030 as a result of it despite the recent global warming. I feel a lot of uncertainty with regard to the role of the very active sun of the 1950-2000 period, the most active of the last 350+ years, in the late 20th century warming. Many mainly blame humans for the bulk of it. Although quite possibly true, I just don't feel comfy assuming that is definitely true. Also, note that the southern hem. hasn't been experiencing the warming that the N hem. has been experiencing. Is the recent S Hem. trend a warning of what the N hem. is about to experience? I don't know, but I do wonder. By the way, if anything the SE US has probably been experiencing cooling overall in the winters since 2000. Also, look at the three straight KATL winters with a major S/IP fwiw. That hadn't occurred since the 1893-5! Was this random? Probably but I do wonder about it some due to how rare it occurs.

[valkhorn]

Yes, the period 1875-1915 experienced a solar min. not seen since the end of the Little Ice Age. The avg. global temp. dropped from 1880 through 1910. I strongly suspect a connection. The sun is now down to levels seen during that min. and

quite possibly will make it down to levels not seen since the end of the Little Ice Age between now and the 2040's. Assuming this verifies, I do wonder how much the globe will cool between now and ~2030 as a result of it despite the recent global warming. I feel a lot of uncertainty with regard to the role of the very active sun of the 1950-2000 period, the most active of the last 350+ years, in the late 20th century warming. Many mainly blame humans for the bulk of it. Although quite possibly true, I just don't feel comfy assuming that is definitely true. Also, note that the southern hem. hasn't been experiencing the warming that the N hem. has been experiencing. Is the recent S Hem. trend a warning of what the N hem. is about to experience? I don't know, but I do wonder. By the way, if anything the SE US has probably been experiencing cooling overall in the winters since 2000. Also, look at the three straight KATL winters with a major S/IP fwiw. That hadn't occurred since the 1893-5! Was this random? Probably but I do wonder about it some due to how rare it occurs.

You probably should discuss this in the climate change thread

We have some very knowledgeable people there who could answer your questions for you.