The 2012-2013 Winter Outlook Thread

[Cold Rain]

Widre would have HATED that one:

That was a great one for Knoxville - but not our heaviest.

Cold Rain hated that one. Just terrible here.

[FallsLake]

Cold Rain hated that one. Just terrible here.

Agreed, it was a west-east storm that gave me (in north Raleigh at time) about one inch. Rained most of the day and then turned to sleet then snow late in the afternoon. Everybody out west (southwest included) was getting dumped on all day. From what I read, we got lucky to get the one inch. Storm passed right over Raleigh and then had some re-development behind it. I will say I do remember the brief snow was pretty as it fell.

http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/maps/accum.19930313.gif

[mackerel_sky]

Yeah,I lived in Gastonia at the time,and it was not that great there.I remember it taking til afternoon Sat to changeover to snow,and only getting about 3-4 inches.not bad ,but....

[valkhorn]

Cold Rain hated that one. Just terrible here.

Agreed, it was a west-east storm that gave me (in north Raleigh at time) about one inch. Rained most of the day and then turned to sleet then snow late in the afternoon. Everybody out west (southwest included) was getting dumped on all day. From what I read, we got lucky to get the one inch. Storm passed right over Raleigh and then had some re-development behind it. I will say I do remember the brief snow was pretty as it fell.

http://www4.ncsu.edu...um.19930313.gif

Yeah,I lived in Gastonia at the time,and it was not that great there.I remember it taking til afternoon Sat to changeover to snow,and only getting about 3-4 inches.not bad ,but....

No snowstorm in the SE is perfect for everyone though - but March 1993 pretty much put all SE snowfall totals well above normal for the areas it hit so the overall winter pattern didn't mean very much.

In places further north we can get nickel and dimed a bit more and don't have to rely on one single snowstorm, but even 1993 put us above our 10" normal for the year.

Predicting below/above average temps and precip is one thing but forecasting whether it's snowy or not from TN south is pretty much impossible to forecast.

[HKY_WX]

I love the way el nino is looking for winter. Will probably try to get the outlook out sometime in early October. This will be the 5th one. Have really only busted one time (last year). Hoping this one will be much improved.

[BIG FROSTY]

I love the way el nino is looking for winter. Will probably try to get the outlook out sometime in early October. This will be the 5th one. Have really only busted one time (last year). Hoping this one will be much improved.

Anxiously waiting!!! Hope you can show some love for the SNOWMAN!!! lol

[mackerel_sky]

Mine was Jan of 88,for quantity of snow and coldness of the event! A once in a lifetime event!?would like to be wrong!

March 1993. My all time favorite winter storm.

[valkhorn]

Mine was Jan of 88,for quantity of snow and coldness of the event! A once in a lifetime event!?would like to be wrong!

January 1988 was great for Knoxville and most of TN. It was a very good powdery snow since the temperature was in the low to mid 20s the whole time. We only got 7.0" officially. March of 1993 we started with rain but quickly changed to snow on the evening of the 12th. Eventually we went into the mid 20s so it was able to pile up even more than some of our biggies when it snowed right around 32 or 33F.

[843wx]

I always get ticked off when i see that NESIS map from 1993...LOL

Their totals for SW Virginia are too low. High Knob had 58 inches and the lower elevations around Norton and Wise had upwards of 3 feet.

Those guys always seem to short change that area when it comes to snow totals.

[SoCoWx]

I know no one gives a hoot what AccuNever really has to say, but the Euro update came out and Brett Anderson posted his thoughts about it (minus maps). Doesn't sound too good.

[BIG FROSTY]

I know no one gives a hoot what AccuNever really has to say, but the Euro update came out and Brett Anderson posted his thoughts about it (minus maps). Doesn't sound too good.

Yep, just read that... EURO not so good for the east!!! It's not always right, but I had rather have it in the cold camp...

[Local Yokel Wx]

For those not able to get natural snow falling this winter. Be sure to check out Whee Make Snow at www.wheemakesnow.com. We can make the snow when mother nature cant!

[Tyler Penland]

I know no one gives a hoot what AccuNever really has to say, but the Euro update came out and Brett Anderson posted his thoughts about it (minus maps). Doesn't sound too good.

Putting bets on any model at this point is pretty pointless. Its September 10th, not November 10th. Come November if it still says the same thing, I'll believe it, but 3-5 months out? Nah. I'll go off trends and climo.

[griteater]

Latest weekly ENSO 3.4 value is in at +0.8. Kind of suprised at how the SST anomalies are staying this warm given the barrage of low level easterly wind anomalies in the nino regions since mid-August. It looks like the upper ocean heat content is the saving grace at this point for the nino.

Here's a Sept 6 update from CPC/IRI...

Synopsis: El Niño conditions are likely to develop during September 2012

ENSO-neutral conditions continued during August 2012 despite above-average sea surface temperatures (SST) across the eastern Pacific Ocean (Figure 1). Reflecting this warmth, most of the weekly Niño index values remained near +0.5C (Figure 2). The oceanic heat content (average temperature in the upper 300m of the ocean) anomalies also remained elevated during the month (Figure 3), consistent with a large region of above-average temperatures at depth across the equatorial Pacific (Figure 4). Possible signs of El Niño development in the atmosphere included upper-level easterly wind anomalies and a slightly negative Southern Oscillation Index. Despite these indicators, key aspects of the tropical atmosphere did not support the development of El Niño conditions during the month. In particular, low-level trade winds were near average along the equator, and the pattern of tropical convection from Indonesia to the central equatorial Pacific was inconsistent with El Niño with the typical regions of both enhanced and suppressed convection shifted too far west (Fig. 5). Because of the lack of clear atmospheric anomaly patterns, ENSO-neutral conditions persisted during August. However, there are ongoing signs of a possibly imminent transition towards El Niño in the atmosphere as well as the ocean

Most of the dynamical models, along with roughly one-half of the statistical models, now predict the onset of El Niño beginning in August-October 2012, persisting through the remainder of the year (Fig. 6). The consensus of dynamical models indicates a borderline moderate strength event (Niño 3.4 index near +1.), while the statistical model consensus indicates a borderline weak El Niño (+0.to +0.). Supported by the model forecasts and the continued warmth across the Pacific Ocean, the official forecast calls for the development of most likely a weak El Niño during September 2012, persisting through December-February 2012-13 (see CPC/IRI consensus forecast)

[tonysc]

March 24, 1983 was a good snow in Atlanta - 7.9 inches (in a Strong El Nino year). 5 of the hourly obs reported Heavy Snow, with thunder occurring in 2 of the hours - http://classic.wunde...eq_statename=NA

Yes a spring snowstorm, I remember it well here in the Upstate of South Carolina. Snowed heavy all day long. It's really nice to see one that late in the season, assuming all the chances are gone by then and WHAM, here comes a big surprise snowstorm.

[tonysc]

January 1988 was great for Knoxville and most of TN. It was a very good powdery snow since the temperature was in the low to mid 20s the whole time. We only got 7.0" officially. March of 1993 we started with rain but quickly changed to snow on the evening of the 12th. Eventually we went into the mid 20s so it was able to pile up even more than some of our biggies when it snowed right around 32 or 33F.

Ahh yes, January 7th, 1988. We got about 10 to 17 inches across parts of the Upstate of South Carolina.

[Mr Bob]

March 24, 1983 was a good snow in Atlanta - 7.9 inches (in a Strong El Nino year). 5 of the hourly obs reported Heavy Snow, with thunder occurring in 2 of the hours - http://classic.wunde...eq_statename=NA

Never forget Bill Schubert on TWC..."Snowflakes as big as pancakes coming down right now!" Awesome storm...2/1979 might be my all-time favorite though...

[dsaur]

Never forget Bill Schubert on TWC..."Snowflakes as big as pancakes coming down right now!" Awesome storm...2/1979 might be my all-time favorite though...

Bob, were you in Atl. in 79? Or was it snow where you were? I'm frankly surprised to find someone else have a sleet storm as one of their top favorite storms People here think I'm crazy for loving sleet over snow, and many of my favorite storms were sleet. Tony

[WilkesboroDude]

All sleet does is cut down on your snow totals.

I do like hearing the sound of it though. It's magical.

Here's hope to some mixed precip type storms. But in order for me to get in on the solid sleet, I know someone is going to get rained on.

[DCMetroWinston]

So, how much for Winston-Salem?

[mackerel_sky]

Does anyone know of any correlation between early snow or sleet events,like early Nov,.events outside the mtns and the rest of the winter? I remember one in early Nov(9th) of 95 ,small event,and we had a snowy cold winter.then 02 or 03, we had a very bad sleet /ice storm in W Carolinas right after thanksgiving,and I think that was only event that winter?

[WidreMann]

All sleet does is cut down on your snow totals.

I do like hearing the sound of it though. It's magical.

Here's hope to some mixed precip type storms. But in order for me to get in on the solid sleet, I know someone is going to get rained on.

It still accumulates the same amount of ice, though. In fact, because of it's reduced surface area, it takes longer to melt. It also doesn't compact. I can remember a ton of sleet storms that took forever to melt off the roads, but even decent snowstorms often had clear roads before a day or two, unless it was really cold following the storm.

[Met1985]

It still accumulates the same amount of ice, though. In fact, because of it's reduced surface area, it takes longer to melt. It also doesn't compact. I can remember a ton of sleet storms that took forever to melt off the roads, but even decent snowstorms often had clear roads before a day or two, unless it was really cold following the storm.

Ya I can remember some good sleet storms and thinking this accumulates faster than snow or at least lays down an icy layer sooner than snow does.

[dsaur]

All sleet does is cut down on your snow totals.

I do like hearing the sound of it though. It's magical.

Here's hope to some mixed precip type storms. But in order for me to get in on the solid sleet, I know someone is going to get rained on.

Lol, spoken like a Carolinian, where snow might actually last more the an hour or two And you might get several falls.

If my yearly hopes are for one inch of something, I'd just as soon be able to see it for a few days, instead of a few hours. Down here if we don't get some sleet with the snow, a lot of times we'll miss the fall if we blink. As I've said before, we are experts on melting snow, so for me sleet has the impact that most snows lack. Impact like I imagine you guys can get with a good snow. Plus, like you say, it makes a grand sound Snow is pretty but you can go real fast down steep roads when it sleets. With snow the 4 wheeler boys showing off for the high school sweeties, ruin it all in one or two passes down the hill. Sleet they just move around, and it freezes back. Tony

[norcarolinian]

Agreed, it was a west-east storm that gave me (in north Raleigh at time) about one inch. Rained most of the day and then turned to sleet then snow late in the afternoon. Everybody out west (southwest included) was getting dumped on all day. From what I read, we got lucky to get the one inch. Storm passed right over Raleigh and then had some re-development behind it. I will say I do remember the brief snow was pretty as it fell.

http://www4.ncsu.edu...um.19930313.gif

crazy storm ... a 4 inch difference just in Guilford County alone ...

[GaWx]

Folks,

SEP's SOI as a whole will likely come in with a small anomaly (+ or -). So, the SOI is giving increasingly solid support for a weak Nino fall/winter peak over moderate or strong Nino, whose chances are dwindling. I have strong's as well as high end moderate's chances near 0. I have the chance for a low end moderate (+1.1 to +1.2 fall/winter ONI peak) as low. I continue to predict a weak Nino fall/winter peak per ONI: i.e., no higher than +1.0 trimonthly peak. this is good news for the SE US as far as chances for a cold winter, especially after coming off of La Nina. To be fair, cold is not at all guraranteed and even a warm weak Nino winter despite following La Nina is a small possibility (1951-2, which had both the most negative PDO for a weak Nino DJF of any on record (-1.39) and a +0.47 NAO, was the only warm one) certainly can't be eliminated. The combo of a solid -PDO and +NAO is typically a recipe for a warm winter in the SE US. The NAO is very hard to predict. I have seen the CFS' Pacific SST predictions going into this winter. FWIW, it shows a continued -PDO though weakening through the winter. The July 2012 PDO was at -1.52 per this link:

http://jisao.washing.../pdo/PDO.latest

That same CFS fwiw shows a +NAO/+AO in Dec. followed by a falling NAO/AO to a solid -NAO/-AO in Feb./Mar. Also, fwiw, the CFS is showing a mild DEC. followed by a slightly above normal Jan. and a slightly below normal Feb. temperaturewise in the SE US.

I take the CFS' PDO/NAO/AO/temperature several month out predictions with a huge grain of salt as I don't have a feel for the CFS' ablility to predict these. I have seen temperature maps be way off just one month in advance. So, we'll have to see how they progress. What I can say is that IF we avoid a DJF averaged -PDO and can get at least a slightly -NAO, I'd be really liking the chances for a cold (and possibly quite cold) SE US winter based on the history of weak Nino's following La Nina's in the SE US. We'll see.

[tonysc]

All sleet does is cut down on your snow totals.

I do like hearing the sound of it though. It's magical.

Here's hope to some mixed precip type storms. But in order for me to get in on the solid sleet, I know someone is going to get rained on.

Although I would much rather have a snowstorm than a sleetstorm, sleeting for hours on end can be quite exciting. And I agree with you, I love the sound of sleet, especially when the wind blows it against the windows of your house. I always have to keep opening the door when sleet is falling just to hear it fall.

[tonysc]

It still accumulates the same amount of ice, though. In fact, because of it's reduced surface area, it takes longer to melt. It also doesn't compact. I can remember a ton of sleet storms that took forever to melt off the roads, but even decent snowstorms often had clear roads before a day or two, unless it was really cold following the storm.

Yeah I remember I believe the year was 1973, pretty sure I was a senior in high school, we got a big sleetstorm on Sunday in the Upstate of SC and was out of school the whole next week. Then about thee weeks later, in mid February, we got 12 to 14 inches of snow begining on a Friday night into midday on Saturday, and we were back in school on Monday. They were both great though. That snowstorm was one for the record books, Only reached to about the Greenwood area of the Upstate of SC where we got 12 to 14 inches, none in Greenville, and 16 inches in Columbia, and to the east of Columbia out around I-95 there was 24 inches.

http://www.wistv.com/Global/story.asp?S=9814321

http://www2.wjbf.com/news/2009/mar/03/current_sc_storm_ranks_in_states_snow_history-ar-235738/

[GaWx]

It still accumulates the same amount of ice, though. In fact, because of it's reduced surface area, it takes longer to melt. It also doesn't compact. I can remember a ton of sleet storms that took forever to melt off the roads, but even decent snowstorms often had clear roads before a day or two, unless it was really cold following the storm.

I agree 100%. While S is awsome, IP is awesome in its own ways.

[GaWx]

Never forget Bill Schubert on TWC..."Snowflakes as big as pancakes coming down right now!" Awesome storm...2/1979 might be my all-time favorite though...

I miss Bill Schubert's fishing forecasts.

Regarding S/IP, I have the 1/1982 snowjam (actually a 7" S/IP/ZR combo) as my #1 (though I had mixed emotions as I was literally in the terrible traffic jam due to a four hour early and sudden start). Impactwise, it has to be near the top for anything since the 1960's due to a combo of the preceding record cold (my first ever below 0), the unexpected early start/resulting horrible traffic mess, the long duration (various forms of precip over 3 days from two different Gulf lows producing 7" of a mix), and the length of time needed to melt the bulk of it due to continued very cold and there being IP and ZR solidifying it. Getting to miss over 3 days of school made it really fun!

I have the 2/1979 4.2" IP as #2. At that time, I couldn't believe that IP could accumulate significantly, much less 4.2"!! It took forever to melt and it was my first sig. ATL S or IP winter storm. It was supposed to be mainly S, not IP, as I recalled, and I recall being very disappointed when it turned from S to IP within one hour. Little did I know, ATL was going to be turned into an IP paradise.

I have the 3/1993 Storm of the Century blizzard as #3. I got ~~8" in Sandy Springs. It was my one and only (to this point) blizzard, my first thundersnow, and it was in mid March!

I have the 1/1988 4.2" IP at #4 and the 1/1987 ~5" S as #5. I have the 3/1980 2.7" S as #6, the 2/2010 3.6" S as #7, and the 3/2009 4.2" S as #8. I wasn't in ATL for the 3/1983 7.9" S, the 1/2002 4.6" S, and the 1/2011 4.4" S. So, I couldn't rate them. However, I'm guessing that 3/1983 would have been #3 had I experienced it, especially because of it being a spring storm and the heaviest since 1/1940!