The 2012-2013 Winter Outlook Thread

[WilkesboroDude]

[FallsLake]

Really convenient how the cut the “snow/sleet/rain” line from the “wet and chilly” right along the split for the SE.

*Except for SE Virginia where they just couldn’t find the nerve to extent.

**You would think our mountains would do better that central Virginia.

I'm not really upset because this is the Farmers Almanac, but just saying this is clearly a very regional outlook.

[WilkesboroDude]

Really convenient how the cut the “snow/sleet/rain” line from the “wet and chilly” right along the split for the SE.

*Except for SE Virginia where they just couldn’t find the nerve to extent.

**You would think our mountains would do better that central Virginia.

I'm not really upset because this is the Farmers Almanac, but just saying this is clearly a very regional outlook.

True. I'll take it over a mild and dry forecast. Surely we will have our chances in a generally wet and chilly winter.

We have seen much worse outlooks.

[SoCoWx]

Well after perusing through all of the regional subforums to read the current thoughts being put out about Winter, there's nothing good to report. Seems to be all bad news for a few days now. ENSO has taken a hit, the OLR anomalies don't support Nino development, the GOAK was doing good, but has lost progress, the Greenland blocking has weakened some, the CFS wants to torch most of the Winter, etc, etc, etc.

And 2006-2007 keeps popping up as an analog which was basically as big of a disaster as last Winter was if you were below 40N.

[LithiaWx]

Well after perusing through all of the regional subforums to read the current thoughts being put out about Winter, there's nothing good to report. Seems to be all bad news for a few days now. ENSO has taken a hit, the OLR anomalies don't support Nino development, the GOAK was doing good, but has lost progress, the Greenland blocking has weakened some, the CFS wants to torch most of the Winter, etc, etc, etc.

And 2006-2007 keeps popping up as an analog which was basically as big of a disaster as last Winter was if you were below 40N.

According to gawx a weak el nino climo wise is the best for katl.

[SoCoWx]

According to gawx a weak el nino climo wise is the best for katl.

It is the best ENSO in terms of getting cold. They just don't tend to be very wet, however.

[jburns]

It is the best ENSO in terms of getting cold. They just don't tend to be very wet, however.

Which is my lowest grade winter. Cold with little or no snow leaves only a high heating bill.

A cold and snow

B alternating periods of warm and cold with at least a few inches of snow

C+ warm and dry with outside days every month

D warm and wet

F Cold and dry

[LithiaWx]

All it takes down here is one storm to give us a memorable winter. Be careful reading outlooks from other regions where they need many storms to be at normal. I trust gawx when he says katl is best off in a weak nino for snows down here.

[jburns]

All it takes down here is one storm to give us a memorable winter.

Heard that Dec. 2011, Jan 2012, Feb 2012 and Mar 2012. Still waiting. lol

[mackerel_sky]

Widreman,is that you?

Well after perusing through all of the regional subforums to read the current thoughts being put out about Winter, there's nothing good to report. Seems to be all bad news for a few days now. ENSO has taken a hit, the OLR anomalies don't support Nino development, the GOAK was doing good, but has lost progress, the Greenland blocking has weakened some, the CFS wants to torch most of the Winter, etc, etc, etc.

And 2006-2007 keeps popping up as an analog which was basically as big of a disaster as last Winter was if you were below 40N.

[Met1985]

Still a long ways to go before we really get anything in stone.

[GaWx]

All it takes down here is one storm to give us a memorable winter. Be careful reading outlooks from other regions where they need many storms to be at normal. I trust gawx when he says katl is best off in a weak nino for snows down here.

Weak Ninos following La Ninas have sig. improved odds vs. the longterm avg. with 3.6"/winter of S/IP for KATL based on 25.2" that fell for the 7 winters, which is nearly double the long term avg. of ~2"/winter. A very impressive four of the seven had 3.6"+, one was near average and only two were below average (1"). So, all seven had 1"+, another impressive stat considering that nearly half of all winters have had <1". Regarding major ZR events, there were 4 of them in the 7 winters vs. only 1 every 4.4 winters overall or about double the long term avg. freq. Regarding the two that had only 1", they were the 3rd and 1st coldest winters on record and one had two major ZR's!

The one warm of the seven still had a major S/IP. If we can get good blocking, prospects would be looking especially good for a cold winter.

Weak El Nino winters following La Nina's for KATL (chronological order):

1) 1904-5 (3rd coldest winter on record; 1" S/IP and 2 major ZR's)

2) 1911-2 (cold winter; 5.2" S/IP and a major ZR)

3) 1939-40 (7th coldest winter on record; 8.3" S/IP and a major ZR)

4) 1951-2 (only warm winter; warmest of 16 weak Nino's by far though 3.9" of S/IP still fell; most -PDO of weak Nino's by good margin and NAO was +)

5) 1963-4 (6th coldest winter on record; 3.6" S/IP)

6) 1968-9 (cold winter; 2.2" S/IP)

7) 1976-7 (COLDEST winter on record; 1.0" S/IP)

(Posted first on 8/18/12).

Edit: total precip.:

1904-5: dry

1911-2: avg.

1939-40: avg.

1951-2: wet

1963-4: wet

1968-9: dry

1976-7: dry

Precip., on average for DJF was only very slightly below average for all seven averaged. Dec. was very slightly wet and JF were slightly dry. Not surprisingly, the two coldest were dry. However, one of those still had two major ZR's and both still had 1" S/IP. The two near avg. precip. winters both had the most snow, had a major ZR, and were cold (though not the coldest)! So, perhaps it would be best to root for a near. avg. precip. DJF to get the best of all worlds combined.

[dsaur]

Weak Ninos following La Ninas have sig. improved odds vs. the longterm avg. with 3.6"/winter of S/IP for KATL based on 25.2" that fell for the 7 winters, which is nearly double the long term avg. of ~2"/winter. A very impressive four of the seven had 3.6"+, one was near average and only two were below average (1"). So, all seven had 1"+, another impressive stat considering that nearly half of all winters have had <1". Regarding major ZR events, there were 4 of them in the 7 winters vs. only 1 every 4.4 winters overall or about double the long term avg. freq. Regarding the two that had only 1", they were the 3rd and 1st coldest winters on record and one had two major ZR's!

The one warm of the seven still had a major S/IP. If we can get good blocking, prospects would be looking especially good for a cold winter.

Weak El Nino winters following La Nina's for KATL (chronological order):

1) 1904-5 (3rd coldest winter on record; 1" S/IP and 2 major ZR's)

2) 1911-2 (cold winter; 5.2" S/IP and a major ZR)

3) 1939-40 (7th coldest winter on record; 8.3" S/IP and a major ZR)

4) 1951-2 (only warm winter; warmest of 16 weak Nino's by far though 3.9" of S/IP still fell; most -PDO of weak Nino's by good margin and NAO was +)

5) 1963-4 (6th coldest winter on record; 3.6" S/IP)

6) 1968-9 (cold winter; 2.2" S/IP)

7) 1976-7 (COLDEST winter on record; 1.0" S/IP)

(Posted first on 8/18/12).

Edit: total precip.:

1904-5: dry

1911-2: avg.

1939-40: avg.

1951-2: wet

1963-4: wet

1968-9: dry

1976-7: dry

Precip., on average for DJF was only very slightly below average for all seven averaged. Dec. was very slightly wet and JF were slightly dry. Not surprisingly, the two coldest were dry. However, one of those still had two major ZR's and both still had 1" S/IP. The two near avg. precip. winters both had the most snow, had a major ZR, and were cold (though not the coldest)! So, perhaps it would be best to root for a near. avg. precip. DJF to get the best of all worlds combined.

What jumps out to me is no matter how cold or wet, getting a foot is near impossible, and getting much more than an inch or two is pretty rare. Even the coldest, in the 70's was a small storm, considering how many big storms there were in the 70's. Of course, we are talking airport weather here, but you can sure see why timing is so very important in Ga. A cold winter, with rain, does not a snow man make But being pretty far north of the Heart of Atlanta Motel, sure helps you get more chances, while deep snow can happen anywhere from Macon north. Timing again. T

[weathertree4u]

While we're on the subject of woolly worms and leaves....

One of the sayings around here is that a foggy August means a snowy winter. I didn't record a single fog last year. Quit counting after nine this year. Had 6 the year of the Christmas/Jan/Feb snows. Just folklore but accurate for 2 years running (possibly longer, didn't keep count before then).

Also, the Old Farmers Almanac, Southern Edition has their forecast out now and its similar to the one posted by Bastardi earlier. They are basing it on 50% less solar activity this year than last, probable el nino, and cold phase PDO.

I have not kept track of it either, the number of fogs that is; this year, in August, I counted 4 average fogs and 2 really thick fogs; I have also heard that the number of days you have thunder in November should correlate with the number of snows in the upcoming Winter; last year we had no fogs in August and no snow at all last year; anxious to see how this Winter pans out; anyone seen any wolly worms yet?

[GaWx]

What jumps out to me is no matter how cold or wet, getting a foot is near impossible, and getting much more than an inch or two is pretty rare. Even the coldest, in the 70's was a small storm, considering how many big storms there were in the 70's. Of course, we are talking airport weather here, but you can sure see why timing is so very important in Ga. A cold winter, with rain, does not a snow man make But being pretty far north of the Heart of Atlanta Motel, sure helps you get more chances, while deep snow can happen anywhere from Macon north. Timing again. T

A big part of the reason is that ATL storms are often not pure S. The 2/79 and 1/88 4" IP storms could have easily been ~12" of S. However, I would argue that 4" of IP is probably longer lasting than 12" of S. It is definitely as much frozen water..it just doesn't have nearly as much air mixed in. Also, ATL has had a whopping 29 major ZR storms. The majority of those were from 1"+ of liq. precip. Most of those could have yielded 12"+ of S had it been all S.

ATL did get ~10" in town (8.3" at airport) in a 1/1940 snow (a weak Nino that also had a major ZR in 1/1940) and 9.6" in 1/1893 over two days. They got 11.6" from three sep. storms in the great 2/1895. There was a 100 year solar min. around this time fwiw (late 1800's to early 1900's).

Regarding the rarity of big ATL storms, I wouldn't want it any other way. I'm perfectly content that a foot is very difficult. That's what makes getting a major storm (3.5"+) so special in ATL and even more so in SAV. Interestingly, SAV did get 18-20" is an incredibly freak long duration storm in 1/1800 and 8-10" in 3/1837. However, those were during/near the colder Dalton sun min. Since ATL didn't exist then, there's no telling whether or not that area also got some freakly heavy snows. I have no interest in moving up north where getting snow is ordinary....zzzzz. Not so special.

ATL's only really big single 1970's IP or S storm was the great 4.4" IP of 2/1979. Speaking of single 3.5"+, the 1980's had 4 3.5"+, the 1990's had 2, the 2000's had 2, and the 2010's have already had two! The 1960's had 2. Compare back to colder times when the 1890's had a whopping 6 and the 1880's had 5!!

[LithiaWx]

A big part of the reason is that ATL storms are often not pure S. The 2/79 and 1/88 4" IP storms could have easily been ~12" of S. However, I would argue that 4" of IP is probably longer lasting than 12" of S. It is definitely as much frozen water..it just doesn't have nearly as much air mixed in. Also, ATL has had a whopping 29 major ZR storms. The majority of those were from 1"+ of liq. precip. Most of those could have yielded 12"+ of S had it been all S.

ATL did get ~10" in town (8.3" at airport) in a 1/1940 snow (a weak Nino that also had a major ZR in 1/1940) and 9.6" in 1/1893 over two days. They got 11.6" from three sep. storms in the great 2/1895. There was a 100 year solar min. around this time fwiw (late 1800's to early 1900's).

Regarding the rarity of big ATL storms, I wouldn't want it any other way. I'm perfectly content that a foot is very difficult. That's what makes getting a major storm (3.5"+) so special in ATL and even more so in SAV. Interestingly, SAV did get 18-20" is an incredibly freak long duration storm in 1/1800 and 8-10" in 3/1837. However, those were during/near the colder Dalton sun min. Since ATL didn't exist then, there's no telling whether or not that area also got some freakly heavy snows. I have no interest in moving up north where getting snow is ordinary....zzzzz. Not so special.

ATL's only really big single 1970's IP or S storm was the great 4.4" IP of 2/1979. Speaking of single 3.5"+, the 1980's had 4 3.5"+, the 1990's had 2, the 2000's had 2, and the 2010's have already had two! The 1960's had 2. Compare back to colder times when the 1890's had a whopping 6 and the 1880's had 5!!

Stats are stats and this is why I trust your assessment when you say that a weak El Nino is our best chance statistically to bring a storm to KATL. I wish I had access to the collected information you have gathered. I'm a numbers guy so stuff like this makes me take note and take it seriously.

[dsaur]

A big part of the reason is that ATL storms are often not pure S. The 2/79 and 1/88 4" IP storms could have easily been ~12" of S. However, I would argue that 4" of IP is probably longer lasting than 12" of S. It is definitely as much frozen water..it just doesn't have nearly as much air mixed in. Also, ATL has had a whopping 29 major ZR storms. The majority of those were from 1"+ of liq. precip. Most of those could have yielded 12"+ of S had it been all S.

ATL did get ~10" in town (8.3" at airport) in a 1/1940 snow (a weak Nino that also had a major ZR in 1/1940) and 9.6" in 1/1893 over two days. They got 11.6" from three sep. storms in the great 2/1895. There was a 100 year solar min. around this time fwiw (late 1800's to early 1900's).

Regarding the rarity of big ATL storms, I wouldn't want it any other way. I'm perfectly content that a foot is very difficult. That's what makes getting a major storm (3.5"+) so special in ATL and even more so in SAV. Interestingly, SAV did get 18-20" is an incredibly freak long duration storm in 1/1800 and 8-10" in 3/1837. However, those were during/near the colder Dalton sun min. Since ATL didn't exist then, there's no telling whether or not that area also got some freakly heavy snows. I have no interest in moving up north where getting snow is ordinary....zzzzz. Not so special.

ATL's only really big single 1970's IP or S storm was the great 4.4" IP of 2/1979. Speaking of single 3.5"+, the 1980's had 4 3.5"+, the 1990's had 2, the 2000's had 2, and the 2010's have already had two! The 1960's had 2. Compare back to colder times when the 1890's had a whopping 6 and the 1880's had 5!!

Yep, the decade with the bookends. Big, big time zrain, while Macon gets the snow dump, and then one of my favorite storms, the big sleet to end the 70's. And add in the great snow for all a few years later, and that was a great period for Ga. Oh, and I'd take the sleet over the snow every time. That sleet was a wonderful storm, with just enough snow to make it look as good as the was to slid in. I feel lucky to have live up there then, even, yes, with the wretched city killer zrain, lol. I wish we had a way back machine to see way back, because I'm sure S. Atl. has seen some foot snows. The blizzard came close, and I'm sure that wasn't the only blizzard to hit these parts. The Hooch saw foot snows, and just some tiny changes in setup and that foot swath could easily have started down here. Or if the Macon bowling ball had been the Macon medicine ball, there could have been a foot up here, lol. Warm air...the reason we see so much zrain, and Carolina gets the snow.

Every year about this time, hope springs anew for an amazing frozen fun time or two, and even after last year, I find I'm filled with winter optimism that this is the year I see a foot of sleet!! A foot of snow is childs play, compaired to sleet in feet And 73 could have been the year, with a bit less waa, or a bit more caa, a stronger wedge, and the low a bit further south. Just incrimental changes. Lord knows there was enough liquid!!

I was looking at a write up you did, that I saved, about 850's during ice storms, and sleet storms...and 500mb heights, and I concluded if we could just raise Ga. up a bit, just a bit, we'd be in the cat bird seat, lol, but I can't figure out how to do it without breaking stuff

That big Sav storm sound fascinating! How long did it last? And how did the cold manage to stay in long enough? T

[GaWx]

Stats are stats and this is why I trust your assessment when you say that a weak El Nino is our best chance statistically to bring a storm to KATL. I wish I had access to the collected information you have gathered. I'm a numbers guy so stuff like this makes me take note and take it seriously.

I need to clarify weak Nino's with regard to both cold and wintry precip.: it is the coldness (on avg..they can still be warm like 1951-2 although very unlikely) of weak nino's that is most impressive and that stands out the most, not the wintry precip. despite it (combo of S/IP and ZR) averaging above average, esp. after La Nina's. An incredible 7 of the 11 coldest KATL winters were weak ninos! Looking at freq. of S/IP, alone, one thing is they very rarely completely get shutout from S/IP, esp. after La Nina's. In terms of freq. of majors as well as seasonal totals, all El Nino's have had similar above avg. chances ..not just weak. In terms of freq. of majors, all Nino's have done well (~1 in 3 chance). Regarding major S/IP, weak La Nina's are a little behind but have still done rather well (~1 in 3.5). Neutral positive have been near the longterm avg of 1 in 4. Lagging are mod. to strong Nina's (~1 in 5) and then neutral neg. (~1 in 7).

Now, when one looks at a combo of major S/IP and ZR, weak Nino's and neutral negative (NN) are the winners because mod.+ Nino's have done poorly with ZR's and neutral neg. is easily the winner on ZR's, alone (44%) even though they have sucked with major S/IP. If I just consider weak Nino's following Nina's, then those have done about as well as NN's regarding major ZR and would be the easy sole winner for all major wintry precip., combined.

[GaWx]

That big Sav storm sound fascinating! How long did it last? And how did the cold manage to stay in long enough? T

I assume there was a strong Gulf low that had a far south track...even near JAX there was snow (very rare for a strong low and probably too far south for much of northern SE). My guess: ~36 hours..here's why:

Per The January 23, 1800 issue of The Carolina Gazette:

"A snowstorm, accompanied with a high wind, commenced in this city last Thursday

evening, the 9th instant, and continued all that night, Friday and Friday night incessantly,

until Saturday morning, which left the snow above 18 inches deep, and it is not half

dissolved yet, although it has been clear, sunshining, warm weather ever since. Hasty

made sleighs were common in the streets and going out of the city, which were never

known or seen here before, and the oldest inhabitants since the first settlement of the

Colony, say, though they have seen several snows, none of them were so deep as this."

Drifts were 2-3 feet! Apparently, there was also major ZR not far from Sav. as trees were laden with "sleet" and there was "great devestation in the forests." Charleston had 8" and also had an amazing four acum. snows that Jan/Feb! The winds were NE for all three of the four as one might expect. The Feb. storm had N winds.The GA/FL border had an incredible 5".

Per Don Sutherland:

"Just ahead of the storm, a very cold air mass moved into the southeastern United States.

At Charleston, the weather was described as 'uncommonly cold.' The snow moved

slowly northward, breaking out in Savannah on the evening of January 9 and reached

Charleston on January 10.

"Based on a review of news accounts from the time in which the storm occurred, this

storm likely tracked east-northeastward out to sea and avoided the northern Mid-Atlantic

and New England states. There was no mention of snowfall in Philadelphia, New York

City, and Boston."

[WilkesboroDude]

[SoCoWx]

Widreman,is that you?

No, it is me, VirginiaHippie. I was just posting the thoughts I had gather from the other forums. Unlike Widreman, I don't cover the winter thread in pessimism constantly.

[WilkesboroDude]

versus

-Accuweather

[dsaur]

I assume there was a strong Gulf low that had a far south track...even near JAX there was snow (very rare for a strong low and probably too far south for much of northern SE). My guess: ~36 hours..here's why:

Per The January 23, 1800 issue of The Carolina Gazette:

"A snowstorm, accompanied with a high wind, commenced in this city last Thursday

evening, the 9th instant, and continued all that night, Friday and Friday night incessantly,

until Saturday morning, which left the snow above 18 inches deep, and it is not half

dissolved yet, although it has been clear, sunshining, warm weather ever since. Hasty

made sleighs were common in the streets and going out of the city, which were never

known or seen here before, and the oldest inhabitants since the first settlement of the

Colony, say, though they have seen several snows, none of them were so deep as this."

Drifts were 2-3 feet! Apparently, there was also major ZR not far from Sav. as trees were laden with "sleet" and there was "great devestation in the forests." Charleston had 8" and also had an amazing four acum. snows that Jan/Feb! The winds were NE for all four as one might expect. The GA/FL border had an incredible 5".

Per Don Sutherland:

"Just ahead of the storm, a very cold air mass moved into the southeastern United States.

At Charleston, the weather was described as 'uncommonly cold.' The snow moved

slowly northward, breaking out in Savannah on the evening of January 9 and reached

Charleston on January 10.

"Based on a review of news accounts from the time in which the storm occurred, this

storm likely tracked east-northeastward out to sea and avoided the northern Mid-Atlantic

and New England states. There was no mention of snowfall in Philadelphia, New York

City, and Boston."

Wow! Sounds sort of familiar. How much did Sav. get from the Macon bowling ball? If that had gone a lot slower if would have sounded like this one, and if it were wider too. Two to three foot drifts means lots of wind. Must have been an impressive gulf low.

I know it means lots of 32.5 and rain, but I do love a big gulf low in winter. Just as long as it isn't 3 inches of zrain, and you have to figure your storm must have dropped a lot of zrain to tear up the forests. Maybe a couple or three inches? T

[LithiaWx]

March 1993. My all time favorite winter storm.

[griteater]

March 24, 1983 was a good snow in Atlanta - 7.9 inches (in a Strong El Nino year). 5 of the hourly obs reported Heavy Snow, with thunder occurring in 2 of the hours - http://classic.wunde...eq_statename=NA

[GaWx]

Wow! Sounds sort of familiar. How much did Sav. get from the Macon bowling ball? If that had gone a lot slower if would have sounded like this one, and if it were wider too. Two to three foot drifts means lots of wind. Must have been an impressive gulf low.

I know it means lots of 32.5 and rain, but I do love a big gulf low in winter. Just as long as it isn't 3 inches of zrain, and you have to figure your storm must have dropped a lot of zrain to tear up the forests. Maybe a couple or three inches? T

3.2" of S 2/73.

1800: The old article was unclear, but I'm assuming the heavy ZR was not right in Sav. since it snowed there so long although ZR may have preceded the S. Well, I'd think 1" of ZR in those parts would be enough to tear up forests. However, 2 and maybe 3" is possible.

[toxictwister00]

March 24, 1983 was a good snow in Atlanta - 7.9 inches (in a Strong El Nino year). 5 of the hourly obs reported Heavy Snow, with thunder occurring in 2 of the hours - http://classic.wunde...eq_statename=NA

I bet that played a large role in the high snowfall amounts. When I saw thundersnow for the first time it was from the March 1, 2009 Winterstorm, it's amazing how after I heard it the first time, the snow instantly got thicker and heavier. Had it not of been for intermittent periods like that during that storm, I'm doubtful we would have accumulated 4 inches given the negative factors we had working against us such as the time of year, marginal temps (we never got below 32-33 range during the peak of it), and the changeover from rain to snow. I always worry about this type of situation in winterstorms the most because it has to happen fairly quickly in order for us to see anything significant.

[GaWx]

March 24, 1983 was a good snow in Atlanta - 7.9 inches (in a Strong El Nino year). 5 of the hourly obs reported Heavy Snow, with thunder occurring in 2 of the hours - http://classic.wunde...eq_statename=NA

That was heaviest since 1/1940, just beating the 7.0" of 1/1982, which was from two storms. However, the 4"+ IP of 2/1979 was also from well over 1" of liquid.

[dsaur]

3.2" of S 2/73.

1800: The old article was unclear, but I'm assuming the heavy ZR was not right in Sav. since it snowed there so long although ZR may have preceded the S. Well, I'd think 1" of ZR in those parts would be enough to tear up forests. However, 2 and maybe 3" is possible.

I just wish I'd get to see a long duration storm like that. 24 hours seems a lot to me, as most just go 8 or 12 , but going 48 or so would be a dream occurance. I mean heavy frozen precip straight though, not impulses moving up the front dropping some between the lulls. That was what was so impressive with the 73 zrain, it didn't last for days, but it fell heavy from start to finish with no lulls. Typical gom low drenching. I'll take that, stretched over 2 or 3 days, and all sleet, lol. I'd get my foot, and more, and probably would be sated, for at least a while.

March 24, 1983 was a good snow in Atlanta - 7.9 inches (in a Strong El Nino year). 5 of the hourly obs reported Heavy Snow, with thunder occurring in 2 of the hours - http://classic.wunde...eq_statename=NA

That was the first thunder snow I remember ever hearing. Standing out watching the lightening like a strobe going off the low clouds, with heavy snow, and booming thunder. A night to remember!

[valkhorn]

Widre would have HATED that one:

That was a great one for Knoxville - but not our heaviest.