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The 2012-2013 Winter Outlook Thread


eyewall

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Awesome Foothills, however I cant blame folks so far this winter has sucked bad and the outlook isnt really any better.....however things can change fast watch this video and listen to how it was 82 in Raleigh just a couple of days before the snow...

LOL I just realized who the guy doing the report is.....wow

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Since it appears this winter is pretty much shot let's speculate on what next year will bring wink.png.

Dude...this winter is far from over!! Look at the endless supply of cutoffs from the sw? We may not have prospects showing up every week like the past couple of winters, but we are bound to get nailed with a good storm. I have lived in Burgers Snow Triangle for all my life and I would take an ass kicking good 8-12" snowstorm than getting nickeled and dimed or being on the "edge" while people to the north, south, east or west are getting snow. It will come. I am thinking the 2nd week of January. This is based on climatology and seeing this happen a lot after a normal December (temp wise). For instance, like Robert said, the temp forecast for warmer temps have not materialized like they should so far (with the exception of a couple of warmer than normal days in between). Lately, it is been cooler than normal, just not FRIGID. LOL. Do not cliff dive yet bro!

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  • 2 weeks later...

Usually a 60% chance of on weak to mod El Nino after a back to back La Nina. Usually only 40% chance of a 3rd La Nina in a row. My studies tell me a west based El Nino like 2009-2010 winter but maybe not as strong as the last one. Solar activity is suppose to plunge as well as any volcano activity to play a part too. Next year is one to defiantly watch my professor says. Will see, we have a long ways to go and this winter is just getting started. I personally think next year will be another winter that will be one to remember.

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  • 2 weeks later...
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Usually a 60% chance of on weak to mod El Nino after a back to back La Nina. Usually only 40% chance of a 3rd La Nina in a row. My studies tell me a west based El Nino like 2009-2010 winter but maybe not as strong as the last one. Solar activity is suppose to plunge as well as any volcano activity to play a part too. Next year is one to defiantly watch my professor says. Will see, we have a long ways to go and this winter is just getting started. I personally think next year will be another winter that will be one to remember.

Oops.

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This thread was a very insightful forward thinking thread, but unfortunately was not the thread any of us really like to deal with, but it was reality in November/December and remains the same in mid February.

Those of use like Eyewall saw last November/December that this winter was very likely dead on arrival due to the pacific flow dominating, lack of blocking and very fast pattern that would likely result in just glancing shots of cold with no able to hang around. My best judgement was that the CPC had it right all along and so far they have. It was not the conclusion that I preferred to arrive at, but meterology is not about what we would like the pattern to be.

On to October 2012 and the first upslope snow of the 2012-2013 season!

May next winter not give a repeat!

(I don't have all the answers either. All each of us can do it look at the variables and go with what our logic tell us)

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