baroclinic_instability Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Nice gravity waves in OK/AR. ^^ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Taking a closer look those gravity waves are trapped lee waves in the lee of the Ouachita mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted December 19, 2011 Author Share Posted December 19, 2011 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2378 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1243 PM CST MON DEC 19 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN NM / NWRN TX PANHANDLE / WRN OK PANHANDLE / SERN CO / SWRN KS CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 191843Z - 192315Z INITIALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL RATES WILL TRANSITION TO HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES THIS AFTERNOON. SNOWFALL RATES AOA 1 INCH/HR WILL BECOME LIKELY FIRST W OF 102 DEG LONGITUDE /I.E. CO/KS BORDER/ AND THEN SPREAD INTO SWRN KS. LOCALIZED BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL TEND TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE BY LATE AFTERNOON. SURFACE MESOANALYSIS SHOWS A SURFACE LOW OVER E-CNTRL NM WITH A SW TO NE ORIENTED BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM THE LOW NEWD AND BISECTING THE TX PANHANDLE AND EXTENDING INTO SWRN KS. APPRECIABLE SURFACE PRESSURE RISES --NOTED EARLIER THIS MORNING-- BEHIND THE FRONT AND A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO INCREASING NLY WINDS AND COINCIDE WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION ON THE POLEWARD/BACKSIDE SIDE OF THE EWD MIGRATING SURFACE CYCLONE. THIS WILL ALLOW THE COLUMN TO GRADUALLY COOL AND SUPPORT A PHASE CHANGE TO ALL SNOW ACROSS PARTS OF THE TX-OK PANHANDLES. DEEP LAYER ASCENT WILL BECOME MAXIMIZED OVER THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS STRONG UPPER FORCING FOR ASCENT OVERSPREADS THE STRENGTHENING BAROCLINIC ZONE AND IN TURN LEADS TO HEAVIER SNOWFALL RATES /21-00Z/. THE POSSIBILITY OF CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT /THUNDERSNOW/ APPEARS TO INCREASE TOWARDS 00Z INVOF THE NRN TX PANHANDLE/OK PANHANDLE. IT IS HERE...THAT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPENING AS THE NOSE OF THE MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT MOVES N FROM THE TX S PLAINS AND ENCROACHES UPON THE TX-OK PANHANDLES THIS AFTERNOON. THE LATEST SREF PROBABILITY GUIDANCE AND EXPERIMENTAL CONVECTION-ALLOWING ENSEMBLE /SSEO/ SHOW A SWATH OF 1 INCH/HR RATES FROM NE NM INTO SWRN KS /LOCALLY HEAVIEST NEAR THE 5 STATE BORDER REGION/. A SUBSTANTIAL REDUCTION IN VISIBILITIES AND INCREASINGLY STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH TIME MAY YIELD INCREASING COVERAGE OF LOCALIZED BLIZZARD CONDITIONS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Trapped waves in the lee of the Ouachitas in motion. http://picasion.com/i/1svsd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Trapped waves in the lee of the Ouachitas in motion. http://picasion.com/i/1svsd cool find, i got a pronunciation and geographically lesson at the same time...good stuff! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Gusts to 60+ MPH in NE NM. Jealous. That secondary low is starting to develop nicely. KTCC 191853Z AUTO 02037G52KT 10SM BKN011 OVC025 02/M01 A2967 RMK AO2 PK WND 02052/1853 UPB24E39RAB39E40SNE24 SLP041 P0001 T00171006 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 cool find, i got a pronunciation and geographically lesson at the same time...good stuff! That area out there is actually real scenic. An ancient range not dissimilar to the mountain building episode that created much of the Appalachians. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Gusts to 60+ MPH in NE NM. Jealous. That secondary low is starting to develop nicely. KTCC 191853Z AUTO 02037G52KT 10SM BKN011 OVC025 02/M01 A2967 RMK AO2 PK WND 02052/1853 UPB24E39RAB39E40SNE24 SLP041 P0001 T00171006 was just going to post that ob. where I saw my first night tornado.. KDHT 191933Z AUTO 36030G40KT 1/2SM SN FG BKN009 BKN014 OVC021 00/M01 A2978 RMK AO2 PK WND 36041/1914 P0000 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Looks like a fun night is in store for about 16 people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Looks like a fun night is in store for about 16 people. I LOL'ed even though that isn't completely true. There is a sizable population in SE CO being affected by this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 I LOL'ed even though that isn't completely true. There is a sizable population in SE CO being affected by this storm. Also, the blizzard is perfectly placed for maximum effect on those traveling between Dallas (and the entire Southeast) and Denver by car for the holidays. This is one year where you want to be traveling by airplane!!! ...and I just had to reply to a thread that had my name on it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Also, the blizzard is perfectly placed for maximum effect on those traveling between Dallas (and the entire Southeast) and Denver by car for the holidays. This is one year where you want to be traveling by airplane!!! ...and I just had to reply to a thread that had my name on it... Yeah that is definitely a good point. This storm will definitely snarl up holiday weekend travel. In fact I was even getting calls at work about this storm for folks in NE who wanted to travel to TX for the holidays. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 GOES is definitely in rapid scan operations. Go to weather.cod.edu for good satellite products. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Hot. If you are a met and not excited for this beauty I am not sure what will get you excited. As expected superb low level moisture transport above the shallow cold front. Great setup for sick TROWALS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 It's too bad none of our members live there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 I would give anything for someone to be posting pics right now...this is a thing of beauty! i wish to god i was in place to get annihilated by this storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Does anyone have access to a lightning map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 I would give anything for someone to be posting pics right now...this is a thing of beauty! i wish to god i was in place to get annihilated by this storm I gave serious thought to driving up for it, but as has been the case with every major KS/CO/Panhandle blizzard the past few years, wussed out for fear of being stuck three days after it's over. One of these days I'll get desperate enough to take my chances on that. Everything still looks on track for a SE CO bullseye... very nice banding evident between Trinidad and La Junta over the past couple hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestMichigan Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 That area out there is actually real scenic. An ancient range not dissimilar to the mountain building episode that created much of the Appalachians. I lived in OK for 3 1/2 years and I have to say the Ouachitas are a nice part of the state. A little more to the west in the Wichita mountains is Mount Scott. It is pretty cool in that is stands out way above anything around it and you can see for miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Uncle Bobby Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 I'm between Lamar and Holly CO, enjoying the show! We were getting a few spits of rain this morning, but it changed to snow by about 11AM. I just moved here 4 years ago, and every time we get these forecasts for 6 or 8 or more inches of snow we end up with 2. Now, this is down in the Arkansas River valley, at about 3600 feet, and it's my suspicion that that's (subsidence) the reason. This is very close to being the lowest spot in the entire state of Colorado. There are very few trees around here and it is mostly flat, but not billiard-table-ish. I live in a house on a county road with no neighbors, and when the wind blows it BLOWS! It is not crazy-windy today, but it's blowing pretty good. Last snowstorm, two weeks ago, there was enough snow to leave 18" drifts, but 95% of the ground was left almost bare because of the wind. This is a pretty lousy place for taking pics, but I'll see what I can get for all of you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 I'm between Lamar and Holly CO, enjoying the show! We were getting a few spits of rain this morning, but it changed to snow by about 11AM. I just moved here 4 years ago, and every time we get these forecasts for 6 or 8 or more inches of snow we end up with 2. Now, this is down in the Arkansas River valley, at about 3600 feet, and it's my suspicion that that's (subsidence) the reason. This is very close to being the lowest spot in the entire state of Colorado. There are very few trees around here and it is mostly flat, but not billiard-table-ish. I live in a house on a county road with no neighbors, and when the wind blows it BLOWS! It is not crazy-windy today, but it's blowing pretty good. Last snowstorm, two weeks ago, there was enough snow to leave 18" drifts, but 95% of the ground was left almost bare because of the wind. This is a pretty lousy place for taking pics, but I'll see what I can get for all of you. Awesome! I didn't know we had any members down there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 I gave serious thought to driving up for it, but as has been the case with every major KS/CO/Panhandle blizzard the past few years, wussed out for fear of being stuck three days after it's over. One of these days I'll get desperate enough to take my chances on that. Everything still looks on track for a SE CO bullseye... very nice banding evident between Trinidad and La Junta over the past couple hours. oh, i totally recommend chasing snow! i chased our pre-halloween pumpkin thumper! rode it out at a bit over 1000ft in a cheap motel with wi-fi...22inches! it was great...there was a good 4-5inches already on the ground when i got to the motel which was up a decent hill...got stuck halfway up the driveway, along with an older gentle man...they hadn't plowed the motel drivway...so i shoveled a path to the top for my car and the gentleman who was also stuck...we made it! and then i got to run around at 3am in the snow like a kid on christmas, until the motel owner yelled at me and told me to go to bed like a normal person, or he would kick me out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Uncle Bobby Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Awesome! I didn't know we had any members down there. I don't know of any (Colorado) webcams within 100 miles of here, but here's one from I-25 south of Trinidad on Raton Pass: http://www.cotrip.or...ra?imageURL=164 I have to confess that having been an avid skier for many years, any snowfall less than about a foot is a yawner for me. Even where I lived for many years, Trinidad CO and Los Alamos NM, it wasn't too uncommon to get over a foot of snow in 24 hours. On one ski trip to Telluride in 1987 I woke up one morning to 33" of fresh powder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ksstormhunter Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 22Z Update. Current cities under my highest threat is Liberal, Dodge City, Garden City, Hayes, KS. In Oklahoma: Guymon. In Texas: Dalhart. RIght Now Hayes, KS is looking at the most accumulating snow from 22Z to 09Z, with 8.4" of snow. Dalhart is next with 8". Areas of strong winds gusting up to 55mph are possible across the area. Full list and data updated http://smartwxmodel.net Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 I don't know of any (Colorado) webcams within 100 miles of here, but here's one from I-25 south of Trinidad on Raton Pass: http://www.cotrip.or...ra?imageURL=164 I have to confess that having been an avid skier for many years, any snowfall less than about a foot is a yawner for me. Even where I lived for many years, Trinidad CO and Los Alamos NM, it wasn't too uncommon to get over a foot of snow in 24 hours. On one ski trip to Telluride in 1987 I woke up one morning to 33" of fresh powder. I love mountain weather! And don't get my talking on skiing and Telluride. The San Juans are truly epic. And nice webcam shot from Raton...they get whacked a lot. Such an isolated pass in the Sangre de Cristos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Uncle Bobby Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Here's what it *normally* looks like around here. This was taken from just in front of my house in August. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Here's what it *normally* looks like around here. This was taken from just in front of my house in August. The Raton Basin including the Spanish Peaks/Sangre de Cristos is an epic area for severe weather initiation during high plains convective season. Almost daily DMC development down there. Superb topography with the high knife range as well as the Spanish Peaks all over 13-14k feet. I love that area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Uncle Bobby Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 I love mountain weather! And don't get my talking on skiing and Telluride. The San Juans are truly epic. And nice webcam shot from Raton...they get whacked a lot. Such an isolated pass in the Sangre de Cristos. I can't resist the urge to set the record straight. That is actually the Colorado side of Raton PASS, at an elevation of somewhere around 7000 feet. Raton Pass crosses the Raton Mesa. Raton is in NM, on the south side of the mesa. The Sangre de Cristos are about 30 miles west of there. The southernmost 14'er in Colorado (of 53 or 54) is right there in those Sangre's: Culebra Peak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 I can't resist the urge to set the record straight. That is actually the Colorado side of Raton PASS, at an elevation of somewhere around 7000 feet. Raton Pass crosses the Raton Mesa. The Sangre de Cristos are about 30 miles west of there. The southernmost 14'er in Colorado (of 53 or 54) is right there in those Sangre's: Culebra Peak. I was always under the assumption that the Culebra range was a sub-range of the greater Sangre de Cristo Range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 It is likely a whiteout across portions of northern TX into the OK Panhandle up into far SE Colorado. 50 MPH wind gusts and quarter mile vis. A Plains Blizzard can not be beat anywhere else in the US. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.