Southern Plains Major Winter Storm December 18-20

[ksstormhunter]

Added all the data points I had for TX panhandle, Western OK, and SouthWest Kansas to http://smartwxmodel.net/Storm1.htm Looking at the Dodge City data point, showing 19/20Z precip beginning and winds picking up by 19/15Z, with average gusts between 32-35 mph. Show a window of 22Z to 04Z of very heavy snowfall rates of 1.1 to 1.4" per hour, with total snow of 15.5" through 20/15Z. Don't know if it will be that much, it usually will scale back the closer it gets to onset time. Good shot for periods of blizzard conditions with visibilities less than 1/4 mile.

[JoMo]

I'm pretty jealous about this. Been watching and hoping this sucker would slide farther south, but it doesn't look like it will.

[Srain]

Some relevant snips from the afternoon discussions from DDC, AMA, LUB and OUN...

DDC

ALL MODELS SHOW THE H7 LOW STACKED WITH THE H5 LOW GENERALLY ACROSS

THE TEXAS PANHANDLE BY AROUND 00Z TUESDAY WITH QPF VALUES ABOVE

ONE-HALF INCH ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS.

BECAUSE OF THIS, SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS COULD BE SEEN ACROSS

EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS AS EARLY AS LATE AFTERNOON MONDAY. THE

HIGH POPS IN PLACE ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER MONDAY AFTERNOON SEEM

REASONABLE THIS FAR OUT. THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY

MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. ADDITIONALLY, A TIGHT

PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT AS IT

MOVES ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS CREATING STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS MONDAY

AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THIS COULD CAUSE BLOWING SNOW AND

DRIFTING SNOW CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA

RESULTING IN POOR VISIBILITIES.

AMA

BIGGEST FORECAST CONCERN IS THE WINTER STORM EXPECTED EARLY NEXT

WEEK. EXCEPT FOR SOME MINOR PLACEMENT ISSUES...THE 12Z NAM AND GFS

ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT. THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH ON

THE TRACK OF THE CLOSED SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW THAN THE NAM. THE

NAM TAKES THE UPPER LOW ALONG THE BORDER OF THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES

AND MEXICO...ACROSS FAR WEST TEXAS...AND THEN LIFTS THE UPPER LOW

NORTHEAST ACROSS THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS INTO SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA BY

18Z TUESDAY. THE GFS TAKES THE UPPER LOW IN A SIMILAR FASHION BUT

LIFTS THE UPPER LOW NORTHEAST A BIT SOONER ACROSS THE TEXAS SOUTH

PLAINS AND THEN ACROSS THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO NORTHERN

OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHERN OR SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS BY 18Z TUESDAY. THE

ECMWF IS THE SLOWEST OF THE MODELS AND DECIDED TO TAKE A BLEND OF THE

GFS AND NAM. THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND GRIDS FOR SNOW AMOUNTS AND

TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LOOKED RIGHT ON TRACK...AND BASED ON CURRENT

TIMING AND TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW...RAISED SNOW AMOUNTS ACROSS MAINLY

THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE WILL

BE THE CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN TO SNOW AS THE STRONG COLD FRONT PUSH

SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE PANHANDLES MONDAY. EXPECT A TIGHT GRADIENT

BETWEEN THE RAIN AND SNOW WHICH WILL SPREAD SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE

FRONT. CANNOT RULE OUT POSSIBILITY FOR THUNDER...MAINLY ACROSS THE

SOUTHEASTERN AND FAR EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE

TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO INTRODUCE. DID INTRODUCE AREAS OF BLOWING

SNOW MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS NORTHERLY WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 20

TO 30 KNOTS OR HIGHER WITH HIGHER GUSTS. CONDITIONS MAY WARRANT

UPGRADE TO BLIZZARD WARNING DUE TO THE STRONG WINDS AND REDUCED

VISIBILITIES IN BLOWING SNOW IN LATER SHIFTS. LATEST WINTER WEATHER

ACCUMULATIONS FROM HPC AND THE WINTER WEATHER DESK INDICATING SNOW

ACCUMULATIONS MAY EXCEED A FOOT ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA AND PARTS OF THE

EXTREME NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLES. ALTHOUGH KEPT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS

UNDER HPC FORECAST...DID INCREASE TO NEAR A FOOT OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER

OVER THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

LUB

A MAJOR WINTER STORM IS POISED TO IMPACT PORTIONS OF WEST TEXAS MONDAY/

MONDAY NIGHT. ATTM...THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE PRIMARILY TAKING AIM

ON THE PANHANDLE. HOWEVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND

NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS OF THE LUB FORECAST/WARNING AREA WILL BE AT

RISK FOR PERIPHERAL IMPACTS INCLUDING A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT

SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AND BLOWING SNOW/NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS LATE

MONDAY.

A CAUTIONARY WORD...THE SYSTEM OF INTEREST REMAINS STATIONARY...SPINNING

VIGOROUSLY OFF THE WEST COAST OF NORTHERN BAJA. THUS IT REMAINS LARGELY

UNSAMPLED BY THE OBSERVATIONAL NETWORK. THAT SAID...CURRENT SOLUTIONS

MAINTAIN AMAZINGLY GOOD AGREEMENT WRT THE PROGGED TIMING/TRACK OF THE

SYSTEM/S EJECTION OVER WEST TEXAS LATE MONDAY /IE WITHIN ~120 NMI/.

THESE SMALL DIFFERENCES IN PROJECTED TRACK...AMPLIFIED BY LACK OF DIRECT

SYSTEM OBSERVATIONS...LEND INCREASED UNCERTAINTY TO SITE-SPECIFIC IMPACTS

FOR THE IMMEDIATE SOUTH PLAINS REGION. GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF THIS TRACK

TO LUBBOCK PROPER...DRAMATIC DIFFERENCES IN SENSIBLE WEATHER/WINTER

STORM POTENTIAL WILL HINGE ON SUBTLE DETAILS THAT ARE YET UNRESOLVABLE.

GIVEN THIS AND TIMING OF THE EVENT LATE IN THE 4TH/5TH FORECAST PERIODS...

HAVE OPTED TO MAINTAIN THE CURRENT SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT INSTEAD

OF POSTING A WATCH AT THIS TIME...HOWEVER...A WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED

IN THE NEAR FUTURE.

BY SUNDAY EVENING THE PARENT MID/UPPER AIR LOW WILL BE EJECTING EASTWARD

OVER THE MEXICO BORDER REGION OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. ALTHOUGH LIGHT

WARM AIR ADVECTION PROCESSES MAY INITIALLY RESULT IN LIGHT SHOWERS/DRIZZLE

SUNDAY EVENING...THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD RAINS WILL INCREASE

DRAMATICALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS NEAR MERIDIONAL/DIFFLUENT FLOW OVERSPREADS

WEST TEXAS IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING LOW. MODEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY

WITHIN THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT AND PROGGED INTENSE FORCING/ASCENT SUPPORT

HIGH/MOS POPS IN THE 60-90 PERCENT RANGE DURING THE DAY MONDAY FAVORING

THE NORTHERN ZONES. MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE A BIT WITH THE SPEED

OF A FROPA AND THE DEEP COOLING OF PROFILES WHICH WOULD SUPPORT A

TRANSITION TO SNOW. THIS APPEARS TO OCCUR WITH THE ONSET OF STRONG

NORTH WINDS/COLD AIR ADVECTION AROUND 18Z IN THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN

PANHANDLE...AND THEN ADVANCE SOUTHWARD OVER THE HIGH PLAINS/LLANO

ESTACADO DURING THE AFTERNOON. CURRENTLY EXPECT THE RAIN/SNOW LINE

TO APPROACH A BROWNFIELD...TO LUBBOCK...TO SILVERTON LINE BY SUNSET.

THE MAGNITUDE OF FORCING WITHIN THE A DEFORMATION ZONE NORTH OF THE

LOW/S TRACK...COUPLED WITH MSLP GRADIENTS AND LOW LEVEL FLOW...

SUGGEST SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS WITH NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS

WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN PANHANDLE AND FAR

NORTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS BY EARLY MONDAY EVENING. THIS IS SUPPORTED

BY SREF GUIDANCE SHOWING A 40-50 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF GREATER

THAN 4 INCH AMOUNTS OVER CASTRO AND PARMER COUNTIES BY 06Z TUE...

AND 60-95 PERCENT PROBABILITY FOR 1 INCH ACCUMULATIONS FROM SILVERTON

TO PLAINVIEW...TO MORTON...WITH OF COURSE HIGHER PROBABILITIES FOR

POINTS NORTHWESTWARD OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO/TEXAS PANHANDLE NEARER

A PRONOUNCED TROWAL.

OUN

MAIN CONCERN THIS FORECAST PERIOD REMAINS WITH STRONG STORM SYSTEM

EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. THROUGH THE SOUTHERN

PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODEL SOLUTIONS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD

AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM...MOVING THE UPPER LOW FROM

SERN NM MONDAY THROUGH NW OK AND INTO KS BY TUESDAY.

HOWEVER...THE MODELS DO SHOW A LITTLE MORE DIFFERENCE IN HOW

RAPIDLY THE SYSTEM EJECTS NEWD OUT OF THE AREA.

LOOKS LIKE THE PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE AREA SUNDAY

NIGHT WITH MOISTURE BEGINNING TO RETURN FROM THE GULF AND LIFT

INCREASING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER SYSTEM. WIDESPREAD RAIN

WILL CONTINUE MONDAY...WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE

SOUTHEAST. PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE OVER TO SNOW IN THE

NORTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT..WITH WINTRY PRECIPITATION SPREADING TOWARD

CENTRAL SECTIONS ON TUESDAY AS THE SYSTEM LIFTS NEWD. LIGHT SNOW MAY

CONTINUE ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN OKLAHOMA INTO TUESDAY

EVENING...ESPECIALLY IF THE SLOWER MOVEMENT OF THE ECMWF

PREVAILS.

GIVEN THE EXPECTED TRACK OF THE SYSTEM...ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE

LIKELY OVER NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AND WILL NOT

MAKE ANY CHANGE TO THE TIMING OR CONFIGURATION OF THE CURRENT

WINTER STORM WATCH. HEAVIEST AMOUNTS IN OUR CWA WILL LIKELY BE IN

THE FAR NW CORNER. AS MENTIONED EARLIER...SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY

LINGER INTO TUESDAY EVENING IN THE NORTH AS THE STORM SYSTEM EXITS

THE AREA...BUT LITTLE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

[rockchalk83]

NWS Wichita has jumped on board the WS.A (Winter Storm Watch) train

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH

TUESDAY EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.

* TIMING OF THE WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL BE MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED EARLY TUESDAY MORNING INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG A CENTER LINE FROM HUTCHINSON TO MCPHERSON TO MARION. THE BAND OF 4 TO 8 INCHES IS POSSIBLE ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LINE FROM SALINE TO SEDGWICK COUNTIES. A TRACE TO 4 INCHES IS EXPECTED ALONG THE EDGES OF THE BAND...AND IT IS EXPECTED TO HAVE A SHARP GRADIENT.

* THERE COULD BE A SMALL AMOUNT OF ICE ACCUMULATION OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS. ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE OVER A TENTH OF AN INCH.

* WINDS...FROM THE NORTH WILL BE BREEZY WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH AND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH.

* IMPACTS WILL INCLUDE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS DUE TO POSSIBLE DRIFTING...SLICK ROADWAYS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES FROM MODERATE TO HEAVY BLOWING SNOW.

[Srain]

ABQ issues Winter Storm Watch and Blizzard Watch is also in effect for Eastern New Mexico.

[#NoPoles]

ABQ issues Winter Storm Watch and Blizzard Watch is also in effect for Eastern New Mexico.

*sigh* i'm not there yet

[ksstormhunter]

Just pushed out 01Z Update for the W.TX, W OK, and SW KS areas. Still showing same trends as before, Dalhart is showing the worse conditions with Blizzard Conditions from 02Z-08Z. Visibilities less then 1/2 mile, snow fall rates around 1", and winds 40-45 mph. While Guymon and Dodge City is showing heaviest snowfall accumulations of 14-16" across this region. Full upload of data pointed updated http://smartwxmodel.net/Storm1.htm

[on_wx]

AMA going all out

[Jim Martin]

70% chance of at least 8" of snow there in the Oklahoma Panhandle and southwest Kansas. Safe to say they will have a white Christmas.

[jcwxguy]

been fun watching this storm so far (MCPHERSON ) not gonna get too excited though until models show same stuff for me but be on sunday nights runs

[Thundersnow12]

Wouldn't be surprised at a few spots getting 18"-24" with this one.

My big winner big would be somewhere in the Boise City/Guymon, OK area.

[Srain]

Winter Storm Warnings are now in effect for SW New Mexico with Winter Storm Watches extending NE into NE Kansas. Blizzard Watches have been hoisted from E N MX, the NW TX/OK Panhandles and SW/S Central Kansas for up to 12-14 inches of snow.

In the warm sector, The SPC has as Slight Risk of severe weather for parts of Eastern TX including areas just S of FWD and including the HGX regions. This storm looks eerily similar to the December 29, 2006 storm that brought numerous tornadoes across N TX and the Dallas/ Fort Worth area, but is not as strong at the 5H level and not as far S as that event. Severe Weather events, while not uncommon in December, have a history of catching folks off guard so it is prudent to at least mention the severe side of the very dynamic Winter Storm with the busy Holiday period approaching.

HPC:

SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD

343 AM EST SUN DEC 18 2011

VALID 12Z SUN DEC 18 2011 - 12Z TUE DEC 20 2011

...HEAVY SNOW AND POSSIBLE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE

FROM AREAS OF NEW MEXICO INTO THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

...AN UNSTABLE AIR MASS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS SHOULD SUPPORT A

THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON MONDAY...

AFTER A BRIEF QUIET PERIOD IN THE WEATHER ACROSS THE

NATION...THINGS SHOULD BECOME MUCH MORE ACTIVE FROM SUNDAY NIGHT

ONWARD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. FUELING THIS CHANGE IS AN ANOMALOUS

UPPER CYCLONE WHICH HAS SEEMINGLY BEEN SWIRLING IN THE VICINITY OF

NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA THE PAST FEW DAYS. ANOTHER SYSTEM

DROPPING SOUTHWARD FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL FINALLY GIVE

THIS STAGNANT UPPER LOW A PUSH TO THE EAST WITH THE ENERGY

REACHING EXTREME WEST TEXAS BY MONDAY MORNING. BEFORE THIS

OCCURS...SCATTERED INSTABILITY RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE

ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND PORTIONS OF ARIZONA WITH

PRECIPITATION TOTALS ON THE LIGHTER END GIVEN LIMITED LOW-LEVEL

MOISTURE. ONCE THIS DISTURBANCE TRACKS TOWARD THE EAST LATE

SUNDAY/EARLY MONDAY...IT WILL BEGIN INTERCEPTING AN INCREASE IN

GULF MOISTURE WHICH IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND THE SWATH OF

PRECIPITATION. IN ADDITION...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH

SURGES TOWARD THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...PLENTY OF COLD AIR WILL INVADE

THE REGION. ULTIMATELY THIS WILL QUICKLY LEAD TO A CHANGEOVER TO

SNOW WITH SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS FORECAST FROM CENTRAL NEW

MEXICO NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES AND

INTO SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS. THE CURRENT HPC WINTER WEATHER GRAPHICS

EXPECT THIS REGION TO SEE A WIDESPREAD 6 TO 12 INCHES OF SNOWFALL

ACCUMULATIONS WITH POCKETS OF LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS. IN

ADDITION...A TIGHTENING IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO AN

ENHANCEMENT IN THE WINDS MAKING BLIZZARD-LIKE CONDITIONS MORE

POSSIBLE. FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION ON THIS WINTER STORM...PLEASE

VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOMEPAGE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV.

THE OTHER ASPECT OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE THREAT FOR SEVERE

WEATHER ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS. STRONG UPPER DYNAMICS

COMBINED WITH AMPLE GULF MOISTURE AND A POTENT FRONTAL BOUNDARY

WILL LEAD TO AN ACTIVE AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY. BY THE

OVERNIGHT HOURS...THE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH AS THE SYSTEM WILL

HAVE ADVANCED INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH THE WINDS

SHIFTING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST.

GIVEN A LACK OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVANCING INTO THE NORTHERN

SECTOR OF THE COUNTRY...MUCH OF THIS PORTION OF THE U.S. WILL BE

RELATIVELY QUIET. A PROGRESSIVE FLOW WITHIN AN ACTIVE JET STREAM

WILL CONTINUE TO DRAW A SERIES OF PACIFIC DISTURBANCES THROUGH THE

NORTHERN TIER STATES. SUCH A FLOW REGIME SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES

NEAR NORMAL AS THE COLDEST AIR REMAINS UP IN CANADA.

[rockchalk83]

I am curious about a couple of things as it relates to this upcoming storm. And I am going to apologize ahead of time if my questions come across as being stupid. First, I am puzzled as to why the models (and corresponding ensembles) are seem like they are hanging up the 0 deg C isotherm in south central Kansas, especially if the system will be strengthening to the south and there being such a cold conveyor belt with this system. I would think that would act to keep the cold air on the move. Second, if significant thunderstorm activity develops within the warm sector, would that act to force the system to take a more southern route?

[Srain]

There still remains some uncertainty regarding storm track and timing of just how quickly the 5H low will trek E across Northern Mexico. The U/L has been stationary, but indications via WV imagery suggest that the storm system is beginning to move inland across the northern Baja region. Satellite data suggest lightening is occurring with this U/L depicting the strength of the feature. The 06Z GFS/NAM was a bit faster while the Euro remained about 6-8 hours slower regarding the movement into the TX Panhandle. It will be interesting to watch how things evolve today as the northern stream short wave trough progresses inland and the attending 'cold front' dives S into the Plains later this afternoon setting the stage for rapid development across the Southern Rockies/Southern Plains tomorrow...

NCEP Operational Status Message

Sun Dec 18 13:27:09 2011 GMT

NOUS42 KWNO 181325

ADMNFD

SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE

NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS CAMP SPRINGS MD

1321Z SUN DEC 18 2011

THE 12Z NAM HAS STARTED AND IS ON-TIME...THE FOLLOWING UPR AIR

REPORTS WERE AVBL FOR INGEST...13 ALASKAN...31 CANADIAN...72

CONUS...9 MEXICAN AND 7 CARIBBEAN.

12Z NAM RAOB RECAP...

NAS/78073 - PURGED TEMP/RH 754-747 MB...WET BULB EFFECT...

PURGED WINDS 1001-784 MB...SPURIOUS

ROR/91408 - UNAVBL

OTZ/70133 - 10145...UNFAVORABLE WX CONDITIONS

PCZ/78807 - MISSING TTAA/TTBB

CRITICAL WEATHER DAY STATUS...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF CRITICAL

WEATHER DAY...CWD...DUE TO THE WINTER STORM IMPACTING THE

SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL U.S. WITHIN THE NEXT THREE DAYS.

[SnowGoose69]

CIPS analogs show 11/22/92 as the #2 analog at 60 hours for the Southern Plains. That was a mammoth storm for places like Dodge City, KS. I believe a few locations in SW KS and NW OK saw 20-25 inches.

[Eskimo Joe]

I woke up to seeing blizzard watches across the panhandles of Texas and Oklahoma. Actually looked up airline prices and contemplated flying out there to see it.

[brettjrob]

Solid NW trend on the 12z suite... the bullseye shifted more into SE CO and WC KS... taking these runs literally would mean not a whole lot for AMA, and perhaps less than previously expected even for DDC. For anyone looking to chase, Garden City or Hays could be a safer bet. I'm glad this one isn't even close for me so I don't have to deal with the heartbreak of the last-minute tweaks.

[Ed Lizard]

IIRC, what very little precip Amarillo and surrounding area got the first few months this year was in the form of snow, but it was only a couple of tenths. Hate to see mention of a NW shift, an inch water equivalent would be huge...

Edit to add- AMA is more rain than snow, but in a drought year, this is still a good thing.

[brettjrob]

IIRC, what very little precip Amarillo and surrounding area got the first few months this year was in the form of snow, but it was only a couple of tenths. Hate to see mention of a NW shift, an inch water equivalent would be huge...

Thankfully, this looks like more of a p-type issue than a QPF one for most of the Panhandles. It does rob the southern fringe of significant QPF, though, especially around LBB. No doubt, they need it far more than the I-70 corridor that benefited from this morning's trend.

[ksstormhunter]

SmartCast starting to zone in on the snow. Latest 16Z showing 20/15Z as the onset time for precip in this area. Looks like starting out as liquid to sleet, then quickly to snow. Winds on average between 30-35mphs, with some locations around Dalhart area around 40-43mph. Heaviest of the snowfall rates seems to be zoned in on the Guymon area with rate of 1.6" per hour.with snow accumulations around 14-16" across this area. Update data points and added a few more cities. http://smartwxmodel.net/Storm1.htm Thoughts?

[Ed Lizard]

Thankfully, this looks like more of a p-type issue than a QPF one for most of the Panhandles. It does rob the southern fringe of significant QPF, though, especially around LBB. No doubt, they need it far more than the I-70 corridor that benefited from this morning's trend.

Yeah, I checked the regional PSU 4 panels after I posted, and saw that. Total precip around AMA isn't bad at all.

[Srain]

SPC Day 2 Update suggests a bit of increased opportunity for severe weather chances in the warm sector of this dynamic storm system and even a mention of an isolated possible tornado or two...

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1130 AM CST SUN DEC 18 2011

VALID 191200Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST TX TO

FAR WESTERN LA...

...SYNOPSIS...

WHILE THE PRIMARY WESTERLIES PERSIST OVER CANADA/CONUS NORTHERN

TIER...THE CLOSED/SLOW-MOVING UPPER LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER

NORTHERN BAJA/FAR NORTHWEST MEXICO WILL BEGIN TO MODESTLY ACCELERATE

EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AS IT REACHES THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY MONDAY

AFTERNOON/NIGHT.

...CENTRAL/EAST TX TO WESTERN LA...

AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW EMERGES FROM NORTHWEST MEXICO/DESERT

SOUTHWEST...A PERSISTENTLY STRONG 50-60 KT SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET

WILL AID IN THE NORTHWARD TRANSPORT OF A PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF

AIRMASS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY. EAST OF A GRADUALLY

DEEPENING SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS SURFACE LOW AND A

DRYLINE/EASTWARD-MOVING PACIFIC FRONT...THIS WILL GENERALLY RESULT

IN SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S ACROSS

CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST TX BY AFTERNOON...WITH MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S F

DEWPOINTS INTO NORTH-CENTRAL TX/FAR SOUTHERN OK.

WITH SHOWERS/TSTMS LIKELY TO BE ONGOING EARLY MONDAY ACROSS WEST TX

INTO PARTS OF NORTH/CENTRAL TX AND OK...WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS MAY

LIMIT APPRECIABLE DESTABILIZATION INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.

NONETHELESS...CONTINUED THETA-E ADVECTION AND DIURNAL HEATING/MIXING

SHOULD YIELD A WEAKLY CAPPED BOUNDARY LAYER WITH A CORRIDOR OF

MLCAPE OF 500-800 J/KG ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST TX BY MID/LATE

AFTERNOON TO THE EAST OF THE DRYLINE/PACIFIC FRONT. ALONG WITH

ARRIVAL OF MORE APPRECIABLE FORCING FOR ASCENT...THIS SHOULD RESULT

IN AN AFTERNOON/EVENING INCREASE OF SURFACE BASED TSTMS.

GIVEN THE DEGREE OF FORCING...EXPECTED EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE

PACIFIC FRONT ACROSS TX...AND CURRENTLY FORECAST VEER-BACK-VEER LOW

TO MID-LEVEL WIND PROFILES...THE PRIMARY CONVECTIVE MODE IS EXPECTED

TO BE LINEAR ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL INTO NORTH TX.

NONETHELESS...ASIDE FROM DAMAGING WINDS...AT LEAST SOME TORNADO

THREAT WILL EXIST GIVEN THE DEGREE OF LOW LEVEL SHEAR/SRH. SUCH A

TORNADO THREAT COULD BE THE CASE WITH INITIAL WARM SECTOR STORMS

EAST OF THE PACIFIC FRONT...ANY QLCS-EMBEDDED CIRCULATIONS THAT

EVOLVE...AND/OR WITH QLCS-SOUTH PERIPHERAL STORMS THAT SHOULD BE OF

A MORE DISCRETE NATURE /FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE A BIT MORE

SUBTLE/ WITHIN A HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT AIRMASS ACROSS SOUTHEAST

TX. AT LEAST AN ISOLATED/MARGINAL DAMAGING WIND/TORNADO THREAT

SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO EARLY TUESDAY ACROSS

SOUTHEAST/EAST TX INTO WESTERN/SOUTHWEST LA.

...NORTHWEST TX/SOUTHWEST OK...

EVEN WITH A COOL/MARGINALLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...LOW-TOPPED TSTMS

CAPABLE OF HAIL TO AROUND SEVERE LEVELS AND/OR PERHAPS A TORNADO

COULD DEVELOP EARLY/MID AFTERNOON MONDAY IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE

NEARLY STACKED SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS CYCLONE. SHOULD

MODEST/SUFFICIENT HEATING OCCUR...THIS COULD INITIALLY BE THE CASE

ACROSS NORTHWEST TX INCLUDING THE TX SOUTH PLAINS/SOUTHERN TX

PANHANDLE VICINITIES. GIVEN THE LIMITED NATURE OF THE

MOISTURE/BUOYANCY AND EXPECTED COLD FRONTAL PROGRESSIONS...ANY

STRONG/SEVERE TSTM THREAT SHOULD REMAIN MARGINAL AND OF A RELATIVELY

LIMITED DURATION.

[Thundersnow12]

[Chicago Storm]

12z ECMWF Text Data...

AMA:

MON 12Z 19-DEC   7.6	 5.8	1009	  95	  74	0.04	 563	 555  
MON 18Z 19-DEC   8.3	 6.0	1007	  98	  91	0.39	 558	 553  
TUE 00Z 20-DEC   1.3	-0.7	1011	  93	  75	0.27	 548	 539  
TUE 06Z 20-DEC  -1.8	-5.4	1017	  83	  87	0.06	 549	 535  
TUE 12Z 20-DEC  -3.6	-7.8	1022	  75	  87	0.02	 552	 535

DDC:

MON 12Z 19-DEC   7.0	 8.2	1010	  91	  80	0.02	 565	 556  
MON 18Z 19-DEC   1.9	 2.3	1016	  89	  99	0.10	 563	 550  
TUE 00Z 20-DEC  -0.9	-4.3	1017	  94	  99	0.46	 558	 545  
TUE 06Z 20-DEC  -3.1	-6.4	1019	  93	 100	0.23	 552	 537  
TUE 12Z 20-DEC  -4.4	-8.7	1021	  90	  95	0.22	 550	 533  
TUE 18Z 20-DEC  -4.7	-6.8	1022	  87	  88	0.03	 551	 534

GUY:

MON 12Z 19-DEC   6.1	 6.5	1010	  92	  69	0.02	 563	 555  
MON 18Z 19-DEC   3.5	 1.5	1012	  95	 100	0.25	 560	 550  
TUE 00Z 20-DEC  -1.2	-4.6	1015	  92	 100	0.57	 552	 540  
TUE 06Z 20-DEC  -3.4	-7.0	1021	  92	  99	0.35	 550	 533  
TUE 12Z 20-DEC  -5.0	-8.7	1023	  87	  94	0.16	 551	 533  
TUE 18Z 20-DEC  -4.1	-7.6	1024	  81	  82	0.02	 553	 534

SPD:

 
MON 12Z 19-DEC   2.0	 2.9    1011	  71	  63    0.01	 561	 552   
MON 18Z 19-DEC  -0.8    -2.5    1017	  73	 100    0.09	 558	 544   
TUE 00Z 20-DEC  -3.1    -4.2    1019	  92	  99    0.59	 554	 538   
TUE 06Z 20-DEC  -5.3    -6.7    1025	  89	  99    0.50	 552	 532   
TUE 12Z 20-DEC  -5.9    -7.0    1024	  87	  96    0.21	 552	 533   
TUE 18Z 20-DEC  -4.9    -5.1    1023	  81	  87    0.01	 555	 537

[ksstormhunter]

20Z SmartCast output starting show early detection on my SmartCast Weather Threat Page. Within 24 hours of significant weather impacts to the area. Looking at the Dalhart area, precip beginning around 15Z, changing to snow by 18Z. Snowfall rates over 1" from 22-02Z, combined with winds gusting up to 45-50mph from 19Z-08Z. Snowfall for this storm looks to be 11-13" across this region. Major impacts to air/road travel, in addition power and medical services will also be degraded. Also updated data points in the area http://smartwxmodel.net/Storm1.htm

[L.B. LaForce]

Nice little baroclinic leaf forming on WV imagery.

[bluewave]

Sometimes a La Nina can really deliver for you guys. Too bad for the rest of us that that there is no blocking

for a big ending to December like we had back in December 2000.

[Srain]

Blizzard Warnings are now hoisted for NE New Mexico/SE Colorado/NW Texas ond Oklahoma Panhandles/SW Kansas.

[on_wx]

Blizzard Warnings are now hoisted for NE New Mexico/SE Colorado/NW Texas ond Oklahoma Panhandles/SW Kansas.

Do we have any members in the area

[Srain]

Do we have any members in the area

According to our regional member map, no. That said I suspect some members have not requested to be added and we have many quests that are following across the Country...

http://maps.google.com/maps/ms?ie=UTF8&hl=en&msa=0&msid=101468100889412705424.0004638c314748aa9fba0&ll=41.376809,-83.430176&spn=13.282338,28.564453&z=6