Srain Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 While there remains some differences regarding the track, a rather potent Winter Storm appears to be taking shape for the Southern Rockies/Southern Plains Sunday-Tuesday (December 18-20). Some totals of 4 inch+ snowfall totals may be expected from as the cold core 5H low tracks across Northern Mexico and on E along the Red River Valley. Areas under the trowal may well see higher totals as the slow moving system treks ENE. There still remains some questions as to where the system will eventually track The Euro/Canadian have been trending S the past couple of runs. The GFS has been rather insistent on the more southern track. The fly in the ointment will be the northern stream storm and just how quickly the modified Canadian air mass settles S into the Central Plains and interacts with this potent Southern Storm. SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX 415 AM CST THU DEC 15 2011 OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-152200- ARMSTRONG-BEAVER-CARSON-CIMARRON-COLLINGSWORTH-DALLAM-DEAF SMITH- DONLEY-GRAY-HANSFORD-HARTLEY-HEMPHILL-HUTCHINSON-LIPSCOMB-MOORE- OCHILTREE-OLDHAM-POTTER-RANDALL-ROBERTS-SHERMAN-TEXAS-WHEELER- 415 AM CST THU DEC 15 2011 ...WINTER TO MAKE A RETURN... A STRONG UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL GATHER STRENGTH OVER NORTHWEST MEXICO ON SUNDAY AND THEN IT WILL MOVE INTO FAR WEST TEXAS MONDAY AND INTO OKLAHOMA BY TUESDAY. AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES INTO WEST TEXAS IT WILL BRING COLD AIR WITH IT...SO RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE OVER TO SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE PANHANDLES ON MONDAY AND THEN SNOW WILL CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. AT THIS TIME...THE TRACK AND TIMING OF THIS NEXT SYSTEM IS VERY UNCERTAIN. THEREFORE...TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE HIGHLY VARIABLE. IT DOES APPEAR THAT THIS STORM WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO BRING 4 INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION OR GREATER TO PARTS OF THE CENTRAL OR SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 This is going to be an interesting event. The GOM is wide open and moist latent heat release will play a big role in rapid intensification of the cyclone. There is a possibility brief and localized blizzard conditions will be met with this storm across the CCB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 This is still shaping up to be a significant event across the Panhandles into southern KS and NE New Mexico. With the slow movement of this deep PV anomaly and the late phase with the northern stream, that CCB is going to be enhanced significantly by the presence of the Rockies via topographical enhancement of the pressure gradient...essentially terrain enhanced tunneling type effect on the backside of the upper low. There is the very real possibility of blizzard conditions for a brief period. A Winter Storm Warning is looking more and more likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted December 16, 2011 Author Share Posted December 16, 2011 Impressive run for the 12Z GFS. Those blizzard conditions appear to be increasing. If the Euro follows suit, I wouldn't be surprised to see some Watches hoisted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 NM ski resorts get crushed... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 GFS absolutely bombs the Panhandle. Nudged towards a slower solution like the ECMWF with a slower kickout of the cutoff anomaly. This is going to be an awesome event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted December 16, 2011 Author Share Posted December 16, 2011 The 12Z Euro has trended a bit further S setting the stage for some impressive snowfall totals... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 NM ski resorts get crushed... These slower solutions are not also supporting more confident blizzard conditions both due to the tighter CCB on the backside of the deep PV but also due to the pure length of time of extreme winds. Portions of NE NM into the Panhandles almost look like a lock for blizzard conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 This could be the all time strangest distribution of White Christmas ever... the CO mountains can't buy snow so far this year, nor can most places in the Upper Midwest and Northeast (Halloween notwithstanding!) Maybe we'll drive south to ski! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted December 16, 2011 Author Share Posted December 16, 2011 Special Weather Statements out from LUB, AMA and DDC. AMA mentioning potentially up to 10 inches of snow. Blowing and drifting snow also mentioned as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 17, 2011 Share Posted December 17, 2011 Special Weather Statements out from LUB, AMA and DDC. AMA mentioning potentially up to 10 inches of snow. Blowing and drifting snow also mentioned as well. Blowing and drifting will be easy with this. In fact that is going to be the biggest problem. If this thing trends any slower it is just going to ramp up winds all that much more as terrain enhancement continues to tunnel the shallow CCB through a more narrow corridor. NAM is the NAM, but it actually typically handles slow moving and deep PV anomalies undergoung rapid cyclogenesis rather well. It suggests 40-60 knots to mix within the frontal zone/mixed layer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted December 17, 2011 Author Share Posted December 17, 2011 The 00Z GFS suggests an impressive trowal across the Panhandles of TX and OK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted December 17, 2011 Share Posted December 17, 2011 sometimes, i wish i was already living in NM...this has been the perfect winter...NM ski resorts are probably peeing their pants waiting for this things to come in...but i know when it all plays out i'll be 50's and rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ksstormhunter Posted December 17, 2011 Share Posted December 17, 2011 The system is just barely entering my SmartCast Output. Looking at the Amarillo area, seeing 20/00Z-20/04Z of snow with rates right around an 1" per hour. So close to 4" just within that time frame. While areas up near Gage to Dodge City show rates up to 1.5" per hour. Posted output at http://smartwxmodel.net/KAMA.htm, http://smartwxmodel.net/KGAG.htm,http://smartwxmodel.net/KDDC.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted December 17, 2011 Author Share Posted December 17, 2011 Winter Storm Watches have been hoisted for AMA and DDC. 6-12 inch totals are possible and even some convective snow with near blizzard conditions expect as the storm treks ENE betweem AMA and LUB. In the warm sector, severe weather may well be possible with a 50 kt LLJ. This will be a very dynamic storm for much of the region. Expect further Watches extended into SE KS/OK later today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 17, 2011 Share Posted December 17, 2011 Winter Storm Watches have been hoisted for AMA and DDC. 6-12 inch totals are possible and even some convective snow with near blizzard conditions expect as the storm treks ENE betweem AMA and LUB. In the warm sector, severe weather may well be possible with a 50 kt LLJ. This will be a very dynamic storm for much of the region. Expect further Watches extended into SE KS/OK later today. This storm is going to be absolutely ripping it. With such a wide open GOM and such an intense upper PV there will be all sorts of convective banding within the TROWAL. That CCB is going to be ripping and there will be life threatening conditions across portions of the Panhandles into southern KS. You just do not see 850 dews like that wrapping into the TROWAL like that very often. Moist processes will be the major reason this thing will intensity with such rapidity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 17, 2011 Share Posted December 17, 2011 What's the topography like in this area? Is it similar to the upper plains where it's flat and wide open such that the winds can cause ground blizzards? This also must be an anomalous storm for this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 17, 2011 Share Posted December 17, 2011 This is continuing to look like a fantastic event. If everything works out, it might be one of the highlight storms this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted December 17, 2011 Author Share Posted December 17, 2011 What's the topography like in this area? Is it similar to the upper plains where it's flat and wide open such that the winds can cause ground blizzards? This also must be an anomalous storm for this time of year. It is rather flat with gentle rolling hills E of the Panhandle region. Another area to monitor is New Mexico from ABQ and points S and E. This Southern Rockies area down S to the Guadalupe Mountains and possibly the Davis Mountains in W TX could see some impressive totals as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 17, 2011 Share Posted December 17, 2011 What's the topography like in this area? Is it similar to the upper plains where it's flat and wide open such that the winds can cause ground blizzards? This also must be an anomalous storm for this time of year. Typically pretty flat. One thing that makes this event special is the shape of the High Plains/Rockies since there will be a significant "tunneling" effect across the CCB after this system phases with the northern stream. What interests me significantly is the deep PV anomaly and the very moist GOM. A direct feed from the WCB to the divergent jet feed aloft in association with these deep PV's is a very favorable synoptic setup for rapid intensification. In effect, these type of systems have a tendency to "bomb" out and stall, and should that happen, that can have a significant effect on the CCB/wind speed. In effect, there is a possibility this system continues to nudge westward with time given the setup we currently see. When I say stall and bomb...think April 15th, 2011 PV bomb across the plains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted December 17, 2011 Author Share Posted December 17, 2011 As B_I mentioned, the stalling and bombing aspect of this storm system raises an eyebrow. The ensembles suggest some uncertainty regarding the eventual track. Should the storm track further S along the Red River Valley, OK into S MO could see significant totals as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted December 17, 2011 Author Share Posted December 17, 2011 The 12Z WRF/NAM suggests a track of the Upper/Surface Low over Lubbock. While this is a bit far out in time for that model, it will be worth monitoring the Globals today into tomorrow to see if a slower, further S track plays out. Severe weather chances in the warm sector, although not that impressive, suggest a squall line with some possible surface based thunderstorms. This will be a very dynamic storm, so expect further changes over the next couple of days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 17, 2011 Share Posted December 17, 2011 The 12Z WRF/NAM suggests a track of the Upper/Surface Low over Lubbock. While this is a bit far out in time for that model, it will be worth monitoring the Globals today into tomorrow to see if a slower, further S track plays out. Severe weather chances in the warm sector, although not that impressive, suggest a squall line with some possible surface based thunderstorms. This will be a very dynamic storm, so expect further changes over the next couple of days. As cruddy as the NAM has been, it has some utility here as it performs much better with these slow moving and deep PV's, and it is the most skillful deterministic model regarding rapid intensification with moist latent processes will play a pivotal role. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 17, 2011 Share Posted December 17, 2011 It would have been better to show an isentropic map portraying the WCB and an upper level jet config, but this map really shows the significant "direct" connection between the moist WCB and the upper divergent jet/PV. Note the upper right panel and the extreme advection into the PV aloft wrapping westward. Beautiful configuration. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted December 17, 2011 Share Posted December 17, 2011 The NWS in Amarillo, Norman, and Dodge City have already hoisted Winter Storm Watches for this upcoming storm. Dodge City: TREGO-ELLIS-SCOTT-LANE-NESS-RUSH-HAMILTON-KEARNY-FINNEY-HODGEMAN- PAWNEE-STAFFORD-STANTON-GRANT-HASKELL-GRAY-FORD-EDWARDS-KIOWA- PRATT-MORTON-STEVENS-SEWARD-MEADE-CLARK-COMANCHE-BARBER- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WAKEENEY...CEDAR BLUFF RESERVOIR... HAYS...ELLIS...SCOTT CITY...DIGHTON...NESS CITY...LA CROSSE... RUSH CENTER...SYRACUSE...LAKIN...DEERFIELD...GARDEN CITY... KALVESTA...JETMORE...HANSTON...LARNED...BURDETT...ST. JOHN... STAFFORD...HUDSON...JOHNSON CITY...ULYSSES...SUBLETTE...SATANTA... CIMARRON...MONTEZUMA...DODGE CITY...BUCKLIN...KINSLEY...LEWIS... GREENSBURG...HAVILAND...PRATT...ELKHART...RICHFIELD...HUGOTON... MOSCOW...LIBERAL...KISMET...MEADE...FOWLER...ASHLAND...MINNEOLA... COLDWATER...PROTECTION...MEDICINE LODGE...KIOWA...SUN CITY 408 AM CST SAT DEC 17 2011 /308 AM MST SAT DEC 17 2011/ ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DODGE CITY HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. * TIMING...ACCUMULATING SNOW COULD BEGIN AS EARLY AS MONDAY MORNING WEST OF HIGHWAY 283. ACCUMULATING SNOW WOULD THEN SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. * MAIN IMPACT...WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL OF OF 4 TO 8 INCHES IS POSSIBLE WITH LOCALLY HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS UP TO 10 INCHES. NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE 25 TO 35 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH WOULD PRODUCE BLOWING SNOW, MAKING TRAVEL DIFFICULT. Amarillo: CIMARRON-TEXAS-BEAVER-DALLAM-SHERMAN-HANSFORD-OCHILTREE-LIPSCOMB- HARTLEY-MOORE-HUTCHINSON-ROBERTS-HEMPHILL-OLDHAM-POTTER-CARSON- GRAY-DEAF SMITH-RANDALL-ARMSTRONG- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BOISE CITY...KEYES...GUYMON...BEAVER... FORGAN...DALHART...STRATFORD...SPEARMAN...GRUVER...PERRYTON... BOOKER...HIGGINS...FOLLETT...HARTLEY...CHANNING...DUMAS... BORGER...MIAMI...CANADIAN...VEGA...AMARILLO...PANHANDLE... WHITE DEER...PAMPA...HEREFORD...CANYON...CLAUDE 449 AM CST SAT DEC 17 2011 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AMARILLO HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. * EVENT...MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG NORTH WINDS WILL IMPACT THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING. STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM CANADIAN TO GLENRIO TEXAS...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WATCH AREA SOUTHEAST OF THIS LINE...INCLUDING AMARILLO...3 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED. NORTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON MONDAY...PRODUCING BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW AND POOR VISIBILITIES. * TIMING...RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ON MONDAY...WITH ALL SNOW EXPECTED BY EARLY MONDAY EVENING. THE SNOW WILL CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT...BEFORE ENDING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST TUESDAY MORNING. * IMPACTS...ROADS WILL BECOME ICY AND SNOWPACKED...LEADING TO HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS. BLOWING SNOW PRODUCED BY THE STRONG NORTH WINDS WILL LEAD TO POOR VISIBILITIES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AT TIMES. Norman: HARPER-WOODS-ELLIS-WOODWARD-ROGER MILLS- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BUFFALO...ALVA...ARNETT...WOODWARD... CHEYENNE 434 AM CST SAT DEC 17 2011 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. * TIMING: ACCUMULATING SNOWS ARE EXPECTED TO COMMENCE MONDAY EVENING...WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW FALLING FROM MIDNIGHT THROUGH DAYBREAK TUESDAY. * MAIN IMPACT: SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE. NORTHERLY WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WILL ALSO BE EXPERIENCED. THIS WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN BLOWING SNOW AND PRONOUNCED DRIFTING OF SNOW ACROSS AREA ROADWAYS. * OTHER IMPACTS: THE STRONG NORTHERLY WIND WILL ALSO HELP PRODUCE WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TUESDAY MORNING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted December 17, 2011 Share Posted December 17, 2011 this storm is a little too far to chase Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ksstormhunter Posted December 17, 2011 Share Posted December 17, 2011 My SmartCast showing across the Amarillo areas with snow starting around 20/00Z, with significant deterioration a couple hours later with visibility down to 1/2 mile, snow rates of .9-1.1" per hour, and wind gusts up to 32mph. Looking at snowfall total from 00Z-13Z around 8.3". Data uploaded http://smartwxmodel.net/KAMA.htm Dodge City, KS area I am showing similar conditions, with a bit heavier snowfall per hour rates of 1.2-1.4" per hour and vis down to 1/4 mile. Snowfall in this area beginning around 19/17Z. Data uploaded http://smartwxmodel.net/KDDC.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted December 17, 2011 Share Posted December 17, 2011 http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ama/?n=wxbriefing Web briefing from the NWS in Amarillo concerning this potential winter storm for the next couple of days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted December 17, 2011 Author Share Posted December 17, 2011 The 12Z Euro continues the trend suggesting a potent Winter Storm across the S Plains. There is good agreement with guidance and it does appear cold air will quickly spill S as the storm wraps up. The trowal will make for some impressive totals for regions beneath that feature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 17, 2011 Share Posted December 17, 2011 12z ECMWF... AMA: MON 12Z 19-DEC 7.2 5.2 1011 96 84 0.05 565 556 MON 18Z 19-DEC 8.2 5.7 1009 98 98 0.32 561 554 TUE 00Z 20-DEC 3.8 2.4 1010 97 82 0.31 552 544 TUE 06Z 20-DEC 0.0 -2.6 1015 93 77 0.21 550 538 TUE 12Z 20-DEC -2.9 -6.3 1019 84 77 0.05 550 535 TUE 18Z 20-DEC -2.2 -6.8 1021 75 83 0.01 552 535 WED 00Z 21-DEC -2.8 -6.4 1019 77 86 0.01 551 536 DDC: MON 12Z 19-DEC 4.9 7.5 1012 96 83 0.04 566 556 MON 18Z 19-DEC 1.7 1.7 1019 82 100 0.08 564 549 TUE 00Z 20-DEC 0.3 -2.5 1019 93 100 0.29 562 546 TUE 06Z 20-DEC -1.9 -3.3 1020 88 98 0.16 559 543 TUE 12Z 20-DEC -3.8 -5.9 1020 88 100 0.32 553 537 TUE 18Z 20-DEC -4.3 -4.6 1021 91 96 0.19 552 535 WED 00Z 21-DEC -3.3 -4.6 1018 85 99 0.05 549 535 WED 06Z 21-DEC -3.0 -3.9 1016 84 88 0.05 548 535 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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