No-snow Decembers

[Hailstorm]

I realize that it is really depressing to revive this two-year-old thread; but unfortunately, nature is trying to screw over NYC's December snow prospects, and rightfully so for a potential third consecutive year. In fact, nature itself is about 23% successful (7 out of 31 days) in delivering us another lackluster December this year. But there is one striking and sober fact about how this particular winter has behaved in relation to recent winters that not all may be aware of. I will explain this towards the bottom of my post.

 

As we have all emerged from a November that was the coldest in quite a while, one may be thinking that this is a positive harbinger for the upcoming winter considering that the last two winters both featured warm Novembers. Heck, even the past November averaged out colder than the Novembers in our epic winters of 2009-2010 and 2010-2011.

 

However, December has so far featured well-above-normal temperatures; and we may have to deal with a torch for the second half of December once next week's cold spell is over. Also, to add insult to injury, next week's arctic blast looks to be accompanied by very dry conditions, so we will likely not be able to capitalize on snow chances during the cold.

 

Thus, there is a remote chance that Central Park may not record any measurable snow at all this month, especially if Sunday-Monday's wave is a bust for NYC, which is becoming more and more likely. If Central Park does not record any measurable snow this month, we will basically be on par with the clunker winter of 2006-2007 in regards to total snowfall between October-December. That would also place us worse off than the recent torch winter of 2011-2012; in which even in that year we managed to muster up 2.9" before New Year's Day rolled in.

 

So, I am just wondering what would be the implications for the rest of the winter if Central Park ties the winter of 2006-2007 for Oct-Nov-Dec futility. Will we have a 70-degree torch period in early January as we had in January 2007 and/or have a winter that is worse than 2011-2012 in regards to snow deficits? Time will tell, but we are 74% (68 out of 92 days from Oct-Dec) on our way to reaching the crucial threshold.

 

Here is the table that illustrates my point:

 

Oct-Nov-Dec Cumulative Snowfall:

 

Season      Amount

2013-2014: Trace (so far)

2012-2013: 4.7"

2011-2012: 2.9"

2010-2011: 20.3"

2009-2010: 12.4"

2008-2009: 1.3"

2007-2008: 2.4"

2006-2007: None

[Snowshack]

Too early for this.  Accumulating snow gets more likely as the month goes on, so to say on December 7th that the month looks like a bust is premature.  The outlook beyond next week is still fairly debatable, but even without blocking Id be surprised if Central Park doesn't get measurable snow this month, even if only on the front end of changeover event like tomorrow night. 

[Hailstorm]

Too early for this.  Accumulating snow gets more likely as the month goes on, so to say on December 7th that the month looks like a bust is premature.  The outlook beyond next week is still fairly debatable, but even without blocking Id be surprised if Central Park doesn't get measurable snow this month, even if only on the front end of changeover event like tomorrow night. 

 

Yes, we still have about 24 more days to go. However, this year's progress from November to December is strikingly similar to how the last two years' played out. As we entered the Decembers in both 2011-2012 and 2012-2013, we already had experienced conditions in which were more suited to winter (10/31/2011 snowstorm and the cold and snowy November of 2012). But as those Decembers dragged on, wintry conditions and accumulating snow chances seemingly began to decrease, which is very abnormal. Both of those Decembers ended up being above-normal in the temperature department. What is happening during this winter is largely reflecting those two years, perhaps even worse because of how our Oct-Dec snowfall is performing. We saw dead-of-winter conditions for November, but now it seems that we are stepping backwards in regards to temperatures.

[nzucker]

Way too early. Average highs are still mid to upper 40s and thus not supportive of snow.

[Hailstorm]

Way too early. Average highs are still mid to upper 40s and thus not supportive of snow.

Yes, but if the late-month torch comes to fruition, our actual highs will be at least in the upper 40s, if not higher. This is despite the fact that our typical average highs will be declining to the lower 40s towards later this month. In short, our lowering average highs could be offset by higher temperature anomalies by later this month, which would result in very low snow probabilities.

[Snowshack]

Where are you seeing the late month torch?

[Guest Pamela]

CPC has above normal precipitation and below normal temps in this area December 13 - 21...you would think it would generate at least some snow around here...assuming the precip falls at the right time.

[Snowshack]

CPC has above normal precipitation and below normal temps in this area December 13 - 21...you would think it would generate at least some snow around here...assuming the precip falls at the right time.

That's the trick in this pattern.  But im optimistic we'll have some modest chances.

[CIK62]

Yes, but if the late-month torch comes to fruition, our actual highs will be at least in the upper 40s, if not higher. This is despite the fact that our typical average highs will be declining to the lower 40s towards later this month. In short, our lowering average highs could be offset by higher temperature anomalies by later this month, which would result in very low snow probabilities.

Normal cut for NYC is now 31-32 lows, up to 44-45 for highs---headed for an optimistic mid-winter period of 25-37 low-highs.

[MJO812]

Bump

[Hailstorm]

I regret reviving this thread. I spoke too soon, fortunately.

 

But wouldn't it be a shame if this very wintry December was followed by an epic January-March snowless torch? The upcoming pattern after Christmas week goes to total crap, if some modeling is correct.

 

Can someone please list the winters which went to crap after a snowy and cold December? Our of those winters, I would like to see if they correlate to our current teleconnections.

[Kaner587]

Dude your grasping at straws. I can't tell you from the Philadelphia perspective (don s did this) 8/9 winters with over 10in in dec saw attest 20 inches altogether. And. 6/9 saw 30 or more. small sample size but its clearly a trend. Don't have numbers for NYC metro but you should assume its similar

[REDMK6GLI]

I regret reviving this thread. I spoke too soon, fortunately.

But wouldn't it be a shame if this very wintry December was followed by an epic January-March snowless torch? The upcoming pattern after Christmas week goes to total crap, if some modeling is correct.

Can someone please list the winters which went to crap after a snowy and cold December? Our of those winters, I would like to see if they correlate to our current teleconnections.

I dont think it would be a runaway in any direction for the rest of the winter. If anything usually if december delivers, the pattern relaxes for maybe a few weeks and then its time to see if winter returns for an encore or it just stays dormant and just does nothing

[REDMK6GLI]

Dude your grasping at straws. I can't tell you from the Philadelphia perspective (don s did this) 8/9 winters with over 10in in dec saw attest 20 inches altogether. And. 6/9 saw 30 or more. small sample size but its clearly a trend. Don't have numbers for NYC metro but you should assume its similar

If those numbers are for philly ( a place that does noticably less as far snowfall and cold ) it should bode well for NYC metro as well. Im fairly confident in saying if winter doesnt return for january then february will deliver the goods. Didnt 95-96 start off hot, get warm and then all hell broke loose with blizzard of 96' and so on? Also i believe a weak el nino was present as well

[KEITH L.I]

I regret reviving this thread. I spoke too soon, fortunately.

 

But wouldn't it be a shame if this very wintry December was followed by an epic January-March snowless torch? The upcoming pattern after Christmas week goes to total crap, if some modeling is correct.

 

Can someone please list the winters which went to crap after a snowy and cold December? Our of those winters, I would like to see if they correlate to our current teleconnections.

wow are you usually this negative..weather does what it wants to do..your first post about a snowless December was absurd

[SnoSki14]

I regret reviving this thread. I spoke too soon, fortunately.

 

But wouldn't it be a shame if this very wintry December was followed by an epic January-March snowless torch? The upcoming pattern after Christmas week goes to total crap, if some modeling is correct.

 

Can someone please list the winters which went to crap after a snowy and cold December? Our of those winters, I would like to see if they correlate to our current teleconnections.

 

Keep talking negative, it's been working so far. I also read the previous posts and it just proves that long range forecasting is very low skill, even going past 2-3 days sometimes. What on Earth makes you think Jan-March would be a snowless torch, it makes absolutely zero sense unless you're a prophet who knows the future.

[Hailstorm]

Dude your grasping at straws. I can't tell you from the Philadelphia perspective (don s did this) 8/9 winters with over 10in in dec saw attest 20 inches altogether. And. 6/9 saw 30 or more. small sample size but its clearly a trend. Don't have numbers for NYC metro but you should assume its similar

 

I am rooting for a very snowy winter just like you. I'm just curious if there have been years where winter shut down for NYC after a great December. I'm sure there have been.

If those numbers are for philly ( a place that does noticably less as far snowfall and cold ) it should bode well for NYC metro as well. Im fairly confident in saying if winter doesnt return for january then february will deliver the goods. Didnt 95-96 start off hot, get warm and then all hell broke loose with blizzard of 96' and so on? Also i believe a weak el nino was present as well

Actually, our current December is closely following December 1995 according to Uncle W's stats posted below: This bodes well for us.

 

1995...........................................................

10th.....32/15..........0.............0............T

11th.....24/15..........0.............0............0

12th.....26/16..........0.............0............0

13th.....28/20..........0.............0............0

14th.....37/24........0.42........1.7...........1

15th.....44/32..........0.............0............1

16th.....41/33........0.21........0.5...........T

17th.....41/31..........0.............0............T

18th.....39/30..........0.............0............0

19th.....33/22........0.68........5.5...........6

20th.....23/18........0.12........2.2...........7

21st.....30/19..........T.............T............6

22nd....34/28..........0.............0............6

23rd.....38/29..........0.............0............5

[REDMK6GLI]

I am rooting for a very snowy winter just like you. I'm just curious if there have been years where winter shut down for NYC after a great December. I'm sure there have been.

Actually, our current December is closely following December 1995 according to Uncle W's stats posted below: This bodes well for us.

1995...........................................................

10th.....32/15..........0.............0............T

11th.....24/15..........0.............0............0

12th.....26/16..........0.............0............0

13th.....28/20..........0.............0............0

14th.....37/24........0.42........1.7...........1

15th.....44/32..........0.............0............1

16th.....41/33........0.21........0.5...........T

17th.....41/31..........0.............0............T

18th.....39/30..........0.............0............0

19th.....33/22........0.68........5.5...........6

20th.....23/18........0.12........2.2...........7

21st.....30/19..........T.............T............6

22nd....34/28..........0.............0............6

23rd.....38/29..........0.............0............5

Difference in 95-96 is i believe there was better blocking than what we have now, nothing. Also there was a weak el nino as well if my memory serves me correctly. That winter REALLY shared the wealth

[Isotherm]

The statistics are strongly in favor of a near or above normal snowfall winter. Since 1960, when NYC receives > 6" in the month of December, there was only 1 case where the seasonal total was under 24-25". Most cases ranged from mid 20s inches upward.

[Hailstorm]

Keep talking negative, it's been working so far. I also read the previous posts and it just proves that long range forecasting is very low skill, even going past 2-3 days sometimes. What on Earth makes you think Jan-March would be a snowless torch, it makes absolutely zero sense unless you're a prophet who knows the future.

I did not say that January-March will be "snowless and a torch" in my previous posts. I was just requesting to see some stats for bad January-March periods after a snowy December because I was just curious. I am well aware to not make unsubstantiated predictions in here.

[dbc]

If those numbers are for philly ( a place that does noticably less as far snowfall and cold ) it should bode well for NYC metro as well. Im fairly confident in saying if winter doesnt return for january then february will deliver the goods. Didnt 95-96 start off hot, get warm and then all hell broke loose with blizzard of 96' and so on? Also i believe a weak el nino was present as well

 

I am rooting for a very snowy winter just like you. I'm just curious if there have been years where winter shut down for NYC after a great December. I'm sure there have been.

Actually, our current December is closely following December 1995 according to Uncle W's stats posted below: This bodes well for us.

 

1995...........................................................

10th.....32/15..........0.............0............T

11th.....24/15..........0.............0............0

12th.....26/16..........0.............0............0

13th.....28/20..........0.............0............0

14th.....37/24........0.42........1.7...........1

15th.....44/32..........0.............0............1

16th.....41/33........0.21........0.5...........T

17th.....41/31..........0.............0............T

18th.....39/30..........0.............0............0

19th.....33/22........0.68........5.5...........6

20th.....23/18........0.12........2.2...........7

21st.....30/19..........T.............T............6

22nd....34/28..........0.............0............6

23rd.....38/29..........0.............0............5

 

I have noticed the 1995 resemblance as well. Scary similar as far as the type of events so far and the days they occurred. To those wondering, 1995-96 was not a weak El Nino it was a weak La Nina to neutral winter. Not much different then this year's ENSO. This year we may be cooler in the ENSO regions than 1995. The biggest difference this year though is we are not coming off of a moderate-strong Nino like we did via the 1994-95 winter with lingering effects through spring and summer. Also our summer this year was much cooler than the 1995 summer but similar drought concerns to what we experienced this year existed then (if not worse) coming into the winter. It is a fair comparison. When we were -WPO,-EPO/-NAO in the 1995-96 winter we cashed in with those huge snow storms and consequentially the eventual record breaking seasonal snow totals. The key to it all in my opinion in 95-96 was the very busy activity of the STJ due to the lingering impacts of the prior year's Nino. We do not have that luxury this winter but if we can pop a -WPO/-EPO, +PNA and -NAO at the same time for a sustained amount of time in January and perhaps February, the snow hounds on this messgae board will be doing cartwheels including myself lol.

[Hailstorm]

The statistics are strongly in favor of a near or above normal snowfall winter. Since 1960, when NYC receives > 6" in the month of December, there was only 1 case where the seasonal total was under 24-25". Most cases ranged from mid 20s inches upward.

Thanks for those stats. If we get at least 3" of snow from tomorrow's event, we will have 10" for December. If we have >10" during December, how does this change the probabilities of getting >30" for the winter? I'd bet that would skyrocket our chances.

[REDMK6GLI]

I have noticed the 1995 resemblance as well. Scary similar as far as the type of events so far and the days they occurred. To those wondering, 1995-96 was not a weak El Nino it was a weak La Nina to neutral winter. Not much different then this year's ENSO. This year we may be cooler in the ENSO regions than 1995. The biggest difference this year though is we are not coming off of a moderate-strong Nino like we did via the 1994-95 winter with lingering effects through spring and summer. Also our summer this year was much cooler than the 1995 summer but similar drought concerns to what we experienced this year existed then (if not worse) coming into the winter. It is a fair comparison. When we were -WPO/-NAO in the 1995-96 winter we cashed in with those huge snow storms and consequentially the eventual record breaking snow totals. The key to it all in my opinion in 95-96 was the very busy activity of the STJ due to the lingering impacts of the prior year's Nino. We do not have that luxury this winter but if we can pop a -WPO, +PNA and -NAO at the same time for a sustained amount of time in January and perhaps February, the snow hounds on this messgae board will be doing cartwheels including myself lol.

Looking at current 15 day progs. Indices wont be favorable for that anytime soon. I dont even think in the long range are there signs of atleast a transient -NAO. I am aware that winters that are predominently +NAO/AO we do get periods of negative departures. End of the month will give alot more clarity i hope as what to expect into january, fingers crossed for a 96' redux ( wishful thinking probably )

[Brian5671]

I regret reviving this thread. I spoke too soon, fortunately.

 

But wouldn't it be a shame if this very wintry December was followed by an epic January-March snowless torch? The upcoming pattern after Christmas week goes to total crap, if some modeling is correct.

 

Can someone please list the winters which went to crap after a snowy and cold December? Our of those winters, I would like to see if they correlate to our current teleconnections.

2005 had a good period in December followed by mostly garbage after.   07 and 08 too to lesser degrees

[donsutherland1]

Dude your grasping at straws. I can't tell you from the Philadelphia perspective (don s did this) 8/9 winters with over 10in in dec saw attest 20 inches altogether. And. 6/9 saw 30 or more. small sample size but its clearly a trend. Don't have numbers for NYC metro but you should assume its similar

NYC is also looking good for this winter. NYC has received 7.1" snow to date and the clipper might push the City close to 10". Such December snowfall, particularly after November snowfall of a trace or more, has very often preceded snowy winters in NYC. 18/20 (90%) of such winters wound up seeing 30" or more snowfall.

 

[REDMK6GLI]

NYC is also looking good for this winter. NYC has received 7.1" snow to date and the clipper might push the City close to 10". Such December snowfall, particularly after November snowfall of a trace or more, has very often preceded snowy winters in NYC. 18/20 (90%) of such winters wound up seeing 30" or more snowfall.

Don first off your insight is always greatly appreciated by me. Also, do you see any promising signs of an active january like 96' from the LR models ( albeit they havent been accurate of late )? I know the -EPO is expected to take a break but then return but the one constant this year has been the lack of that -NAO that can really get some good storms on the east coast going

[uncle W]

December 19-20th 1995 had a good 7-10" snowfall around the area...That's not happening this year...Dec. 1995 didn't have any warm ups into the fifties the second half of the month...

[SnowGoose69]

I am rooting for a very snowy winter just like you. I'm just curious if there have been years where winter shut down for NYC after a great December. I'm sure there have been.

Actually, our current December is closely following December 1995 according to Uncle W's stats posted below: This bodes well for us.

1995...........................................................

10th.....32/15..........0.............0............T

11th.....24/15..........0.............0............0

12th.....26/16..........0.............0............0

13th.....28/20..........0.............0............0

14th.....37/24........0.42........1.7...........1

15th.....44/32..........0.............0............1

16th.....41/33........0.21........0.5...........T

17th.....41/31..........0.............0............T

18th.....39/30..........0.............0............0

19th.....33/22........0.68........5.5...........6

20th.....23/18........0.12........2.2...........7

21st.....30/19..........T.............T............6

22nd....34/28..........0.............0............6

23rd.....38/29..........0.............0............5

If anything it reminds me more of Dec 02, most people don't realize that after the first 7-10 days that December 02 averaged largely above normal and the NAO was positive but that PAC ridge didn't budge and we got two well timed events that month...and to add to Don's stats I looked today and I think only 61-62 and 51-52 had this much snow in December and failed to reach 20 inches for the winter

[uncle W]

If anything it reminds me more of Dec 02, most people don't realize that after the first 7-10 days that December 02 averaged largely above normal and the NAO was positive but that PAC ridge didn't budge and we got two well timed events that month...and to add to Don's stats I looked today and I think only 61-62 and 51-52 had this much snow in December and failed to reach 20 inches for the winter

I counted 40 Decembers with 8" or more of snow...only one year failed to reach 20"...that was 1912-13...NYC has 8.2" so far...Here are the years with 7.5"-9.9" in December and the seasons total...also biggest storm...

1873-74...9.3"...36.9"...

1887-88...9.0"...45.6"...21.0"

1909-10...9.0"...27.2"...10.0"

1911-12...8.5"...29.5"...

1915-16...8.1"...50.7"...

1919-20...8.8"...47.6"...17.5"

1922-23...8.0"...60.4".....9.0"

1932-33...9.4"...27.0"...10.0"

1942-43...8.5"...29.5"

1952-53...7.5"...15.1"

1957-58...8.7"...44.7"...11.8"

1961-62...7.7"...18.1".....6.2"

1966-67...9.1"...51.5"...12.5"

2005-06...9.7"...40.0"...26.9"

2013-14...8.2"...????????? we could see more snow by months end...28 winters had 10" or more in December...of those 17 had over 40" of snow...seven had 30" or more...three had over 20"...one was less than 20"...

[Chaser25973]

NYC is also looking good for this winter. NYC has received 7.1" snow to date and the clipper might push the City close to 10". Such December snowfall, particularly after November snowfall of a trace or more, has very often preceded snowy winters in NYC. 18/20 (90%) of such winters wound up seeing 30" or more snowfall.

 

 

Bit of a weenie post here, so I hope you'll forgive me, but what set of conditions have there been in order for winter to see 40" or more of snow for NYC?