Alpha5 Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 Since records began, NYC has went snowless in december only twice. The first was back in 1877 and the second in 2006. Only a trace was recorded in the following years 1882 1885 1888 1891 1936 1943 1953 1965 1971 1972 1994 1996 1997 1999 2001 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 Interesting. What was the entire snowfall for the winter of 1877-1878? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted December 16, 2011 Author Share Posted December 16, 2011 Interesting. What was the entire snowfall for the winter of 1877-1878? 8.1" It only snowed in January and February that year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 The winter of 1977-78 had less than 1 in. of snow here in December. The rest of the winter had 65 in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchel Volk Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 The pattern for 77/78 was way different. The air masses were much colder over the US, this winter almost the whole 48 except New Mexico and parts of Colorado are all above normal. Looking at the current pattern it makes me wonder how the winters will be by 2100. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 8.1" It only snowed in January and February that year I think it was one storm that started 1/31 and ended 2/1... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 Feb 2007 had -7 departures and was brutally cold. That month would've been great if not for the mid level warmth in the VD storm. Had enough precip to be a 1-2 ft blizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 Looking at the current pattern it makes me wonder how the winters will be by 2100. That is a *really* feckless comment based on a few weeks of above normal temps.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 Feb 2007 had -7 departures and was brutally cold. That month would've been great if not for the mid level warmth in the VD storm. Had enough precip to be a 1-2 ft blizzard. What caused the V-Day storm to cut close to the coast? A misplaced Rockies ridge or a marginal -NAO? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 The pattern for 77/78 was way different. The air masses were much colder over the US, this winter almost the whole 48 except New Mexico and parts of Colorado are all above normal. Looking at the current pattern it makes me wonder how the winters will be by 2100. Are you suggesting that global warming will become more of an inevitable factor that will torch the winters for the entire USA from here on out? Alaska and the Pacific NW are averaging much colder than normal, especially for November. Also, there is a good supply of Arctic air just waiting in the wings in Northeastern Canada. It's not like we are in 1997-1998; where there was no cold air to be found in our part of the globe that winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted December 16, 2011 Author Share Posted December 16, 2011 this winter almost the whole 48 except New Mexico and parts of Colorado are all above normal. Looking at the current pattern it makes me wonder how the winters will be by 2100. Thats just not even remotely true Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 Since records began, NYC has went snowless in december only twice. The first was back in 1877 and the second in 2006. Only a trace was recorded in the following years 1882 1885 1888 1891 1936 1943 1953 1965 1971 1972 1994 1996 1997 1999 2001 some of these years had snow in October or November...1882 had 14" in November...1953 had snow in early November...January 1954 was cold and snowy but February and March was benign...January 2000 became cold and snowy for about a month then turned warm again...We could still see snow before January with another cold front that has a trailing low with it...we also need some cold air which is hard to come by so far... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 18, 2011 Share Posted December 18, 2011 The pattern for 77/78 was way different. The air masses were much colder over the US, this winter almost the whole 48 except New Mexico and parts of Colorado are all above normal. Looking at the current pattern it makes me wonder how the winters will be by 2100. I agree. 1977-78 fell within a cluster of exceptionally cold winters. For what it is worth, 1976-77, 1977-78, and 1978-79 each had 25 or more subfreezing days in NYC: 1976-77: 40 days 1977-78: 34 days 1978-79: 25 days Here's the number of subfreezing days beginning with 2000-01: 2000-01: 12 days 2001-02: 2 days (tied with 1997-98 for lowest figure) 2002-03: 24 days 2003-04: 25 days 2004-05: 16 days 2005-06: 6 days 2006-07: 16 days 2007-08: 5 days 2008-09: 20 days 2009-10: 15 days 2010-11: 19 days So far, 2011-12 has had no such days. Today could be a close call for the first such day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted December 18, 2011 Share Posted December 18, 2011 1977-78 fell within a cluster of exceptionally cold winters. For what it is worth, 1976-77, 1977-78, and 1978-79 each had 25 or more subfreezing days in NYC: 1976-77: 40 days 1977-78: 34 days 1978-79: 25 days Here's the number of subfreezing days beginning with 2000-01: 2000-01: 12 days 2001-02: 2 days (tied with 1997-98 for lowest figure) 2002-03: 24 days 2003-04: 25 days 2004-05: 16 days 2005-06: 6 days 2006-07: 16 days 2007-08: 5 days 2008-09: 20 days 2009-10: 15 days 2010-11: 19 days So far, 2011-12 has had no such days. Today could be a close call for the first such day. that period from January 1976 to January 1985 had some really cold outbreaks...Seven out of ten years had temperatures near or below zero on its coldest day...At Centraol Park 1976-77 had 45 days with a maximum of 32 or lower...1977-78 without the extreme cold as the previous year had 42 days with a max 32 or lower...You have to go back to 1917-18 and 1933-34 to get a similar amount of days...At the time some were calling for an ice age... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBG Posted December 18, 2011 Share Posted December 18, 2011 that period from January 1976 to January 1985 had some really cold outbreaks...Seven out of ten years had temperatures near or below zero on its coldest day...At Centraol Park 1976-77 had 45 days with a maximum of 32 or lower...1977-78 without the extreme cold as the previous year had 42 days with a max 32 or lower...You have to go back to 1917-18 and 1933-34 to get a similar amount of days...At the time some were calling for an ice age... Weren't there some such periods in 1987-8, 1968-9, 1969-70 and 1970-1? Not to forget 1960-1? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 18, 2011 Share Posted December 18, 2011 that period from January 1976 to January 1985 had some really cold outbreaks...Seven out of ten years had temperatures near or below zero on its coldest day...At Centraol Park 1976-77 had 45 days with a maximum of 32 or lower...1977-78 without the extreme cold as the previous year had 42 days with a max 32 or lower...You have to go back to 1917-18 and 1933-34 to get a similar amount of days...At the time some were calling for an ice age... I agree. Coldest 5 Winters (DJF) beginning with 1970-71: 1. 1976-77 28.5° 2. 1977-78 30.3° 3. 1993-94 31.2° 4. 2002-03 31.2° 5. 1970-71 32.2° Coldest 5 Winters/Early Spring (DJFM) beginning with 1970-71: 1. 1977-78 32.5° 2. 1976-77 33.1° 3. 1993-94 33.6° 4. 1995-96 33.9° 5. 1993-94 and 2002-03 34.2° Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted December 18, 2011 Share Posted December 18, 2011 that period from January 1976 to January 1985 had some really cold outbreaks...Seven out of ten years had temperatures near or below zero on its coldest day...At Centraol Park 1976-77 had 45 days with a maximum of 32 or lower...1977-78 without the extreme cold as the previous year had 42 days with a max 32 or lower...You have to go back to 1917-18 and 1933-34 to get a similar amount of days...At the time some were calling for an ice age... least amount of max days 32 or lower since 1930... max days 2 1952-53 3 1997-98 3 2001-02 4 1998-99 5 1931-32 6 2007-08 7 1990-91 7 1992-93 8 1974-75 9 1948-49 9 1991-92 10 2005-06 most max days 32 or lower since 1930... max days 45 1976-77 42 1977-78 39 1935-36 38 1933-34 32 1947-48 31 1993-94 31 2002-03 30 1980-81 30 1995-96 29 1983-84 29 1962-63 29 1939-40 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 Looking back at some of the winter forecasts from October calling for another 40+ inch winter, I thought it'd be interesting to see what winters with little snowfall in December tended to produce for the rest of the winter. Using the list that Alpha5 provided for Decembers with a trace of snowfall or no snow at all, except for one year, 1882, which had a big November snowstorm, the rest of these winters, even with pre-December accumulations, ended up with below average snowfall, with none of those winters ending up with 30+ inches. Although the last few years have been more unpredictable, these statistics strongly suggest that not only is a 40+ inch winter unlikely, but that historically, there would be a far greater probability of below average snowfall this winter if we don't see any snow through the end of December, which is a possibility. I don't have the link typically used for temperature departures for analog years (I lost it when my laptop died), but I would assume that a good portion of these winters also featured above average temperatures. We've been surprised before and there have been snowstorms that brought up the total winter snowfall much closer to average, but the persistent pattern in place as well as the historical references suggest that there's not much luck this winter for passing average snowfall by much, if at all. Note: Years bolded had accumulating snowfall in November. Year ---- Total winter snowfall 1877 ---- 8.1" 1882 ---- 44.0" 1885 ---- 20.8" 1888 ---- 16.5" 1891 ---- 25.4" 1936 ---- 15.6" 1943 ---- 23.8" 1953 ---- 15.8" 1965 ---- 21.4" 1971 ---- 22.9" 1972 ---- 2.8" 1994 ---- 11.8" 1996 ---- 10.0" 1997 ---- 5.5" 1999 ---- 16.3" 2001 ---- 3.5" 2006 ---- 12.4" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 Looking back at some of the winter forecasts from October calling for another 40+ inch winter, I thought it'd be interesting to see what winters with little snowfall in December tended to produce for the rest of the winter. Using the list that Alpha5 provided for Decembers with a trace of snowfall or no snow at all, except for one year, 1882, which had a big November snowstorm, the rest of these winters, even with pre-December accumulations, ended up with below average snowfall, with none of those winters ending up with 30+ inches. Although the last few years have been more unpredictable, these statistics strongly suggest that not only is a 40+ inch winter unlikely, but that historically, there would be a far greater probability of below average snowfall this winter if we don't see any snow through the end of December, which is a possibility. I don't have the link typically used for temperature departures for analog years (I lost it when my laptop died), but I would assume that a good portion of these winters also featured above average temperatures. We've been surprised before and there have been snowstorms that brought up the total winter snowfall much closer to average, but the persistent pattern in place as well as the historical references suggest that there's not much luck this winter for passing average snowfall by much, if at all. Note: Years bolded had accumulating snowfall in November. Year ---- Total winter snowfall 1877 ---- 8.1" 1882 ---- 44.0" 1885 ---- 20.8" 1888 ---- 16.5" 1891 ---- 25.4" 1936 ---- 15.6" 1943 ---- 23.8" 1953 ---- 15.8" 1965 ---- 21.4" 1971 ---- 22.9" 1972 ---- 2.8" 1994 ---- 11.8" 1996 ---- 10.0" 1997 ---- 5.5" 1999 ---- 16.3" 2001 ---- 3.5" 2006 ---- 12.4" There is no other way to put it but... We're basically screwed.... When does spring start? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 well we can add so far the first half of December 2012 and the entire month has a chance - hopefully not - but the count down begins Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 i read this whole thread not realizing it's one year old. the post below made it particularly chilling.... (so to speak).... some of these years had snow in October or November... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 i read this whole thread not realizing it's one year old. the post below made it particularly chilling.... (so to speak).... Haha, me too! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 If I am looking at the correct sources, this winter is only the third instance where NYC recorded two consecutive non-measurable December snowfall. Very sad for this so-called "good pattern that we did not have last winter." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 If I am looking at the correct sources, this winter is only the third instance where NYC recorded two consecutive non-measurable December snowfall. Very sad for this so-called "good pattern that we did not have last winter." I'm having a bad feeling about the rest of winter given the poor December-you would expect at least a fair December to enter into a great Jan/Feb. Most good winters here have at least one good Dec storm, such as 1995, 2000, 2002, 2003, 2009, 2010. There are some that didn't such as 1993 and 2004 although it seems you would want one to be on the safer side. Seems to be the exception vs. the rule to have a good winter with a bad December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 NYC actually recorded 0.4 the other day and most likely we had 0.5-0.8 or so yesterday even though they reported a trace. Keep in mind though its not so much the amount itself as it is how you got there. How we got zero in 2001 or 2006 was quite a bit different than how we got 0.4 this month. There were 2 close calls which means we've got some storminess and cold air, in 2001 and 2006 we more or less had none....we had almost 5 inches of liquid at NYC this month vs. less than 3 inches both those years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 NYC actually recorded 0.4 the other day and most likely we had 0.5-0.8 or so yesterday even though they reported a trace. Keep in mind though its not so much the amount itself as it is how you got there. How we got zero in 2001 or 2006 was quite a bit different than how we got 0.4 this month. There were 2 close calls which means we've got some storminess and cold air, in 2001 and 2006 we more or less had none....we had almost 5 inches of liquid at NYC this month vs. less than 3 inches both those years. Central Park should have at least an inch so far...Snowfall so far this year is a head of most of the analogs ... snowfall by New Years Day... 2012-13.....5.1" 1951-52.....3.3" 1953-54.....2.2" 1958-59.....3.8" 1978-79.....2.7" 1989-90.....6.1" 1996-97.....0.1" 2001-02.....trace Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 That is a *really* feckless comment based on a few weeks of above normal temps.... We should have posted after 09- 10 and 10 -11 , that we would be Bangor in 2100 and see if that went over well . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 i read this whole thread not realizing it's one year old. the post below made it particularly chilling.... (so to speak).... same here... same situation different year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 Taking a look at years with a snowy Nov and bad Dec.. 1882-83 0 0 0 0 14.0 T 9.4 10.1 10.0 0.5 0 0 44.0 In this year, we had a 12"+ Nov followed by nothing in Dec, ended up a great winter. Good analog for my area so far, 12" Nov, and 0.2" Dec. 1898-99 0 0 0 0 19.0 1.5 5.3 25.3 4.8 0 0 0 55.9 Another year with a great Nov and bad Dec, ended up excellent.. 1906-07 0 0 0 0 1.0 0.3 11.0 21.8 13.3 5.8 0 0 53.2 Bad through December, ended up with over 50". 1938-39 0 0 0 0 12.8 1.7 10.3 5.5 7.0 T 0 0 37.3 Less than 2" in Dec after a good Nov, finished above normal. 1978-79 0 0 0 0 2.2 0.5 6.6 20.1 T T 0 0 29.4 Didn't get going until Jan really, finished with normal snowfall in 78-79. Given the snowstorm in Nov, the number of analogs are already low, but interestingly enough, many of those snowy Nov years featured bad Dec patterns, and then better Jan-Mar. So all hope is not lost with a poor Dec. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 those analogs had colder Decembers... year...temp... 1882...30.6 1898...34.6 1906...34.2 1938...37.0 1978...38.9 December 1978 wasn't cold but it was colder than 2012...Some other years with snow in November and little in December... 1931...41.0 1953...41.3 1989...25.9 December 1989 was one of the coldest on record...Not a good analog...1931 and 1953 should be close to this years final Dec. average...1931 and 1989 had their biggest snowfall in November... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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