A-L-E-K Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 0z NAM coming in with stronger high compard to the GFS in the pac nw/nrn plains bringing down colder air with our system developing on the NM/TX border. As expected it's already backing off this idea, much less cold air intrusion already on 12z and it's probably still overdone. The NAM has been rock solid consistent on overdoing it at this range. Just total garbage this year and barely worth looking at. The difference with the cold air over Canada by hour 60 compared to 0z are massive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 As expected it's already backing off this idea, much less cold air intrusion already on 12z and it's probably still overdone. The NAM has been rock solid consistent on overdoing it at this range. Just total garbage this year and barely worth looking at. The difference with the cold air over Canada by hour 60 compared to 0z are massive. It's not overdoing it, there is a reason for the difference. Look at the strength of the system that is moving east across southern Canada. It's weaker on the 12z run which is causing the CAA to be weaker where the 0z run has a stronger system and stronger CAA into the nrn the plains behind it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 It's not overdoing it, there is a reason for the difference. Look at the strength of the system that is moving east across southern Canada. It's weaker on the 12z run which is causing the CAA to be weaker where the 0z run has a stronger system and stronger CAA into the nrn the plains behind it. It overdid the strength of that system at 0z and is continuing to do so at 12z. Ride the Euro, a progressive and warm situation is where the smart money is heading. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 The NAM has been horrible. No reason to pay too much attention to it until it proves to be worthy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 GFS had an in between run here. I wouldn't be surprised if it comes in slower in later runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 Looks like the high pressure in the dakotas is further southeast on the 12z GFS, possibly suppressing the system a bit further south. Or this system is just weak. That low up in canada seems to be stealing the show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 The NAM has been horrible. No reason to pay too much attention to it until it proves to be worthy. this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 Looks like the high pressure in the dakotas is further southeast on the 12z GFS, possibly suppressing the system a bit further south. Or this system is just weak. That low up in canada seems to be stealing the show. I was thinking along those lines too. Doesn't look like the 0Z run from last night. We're not gonna know what this storm does until Sunday Pm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 For S&Gs and because it's my style, i'll go on record now and say no one outside the western high plains or panhandle area (outside our subforum anyways), sees more than 3 wet inches. looking good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 Hard to disagree with you at this moment looking good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted December 17, 2011 Author Share Posted December 17, 2011 For S&Gs and because it's my style, i'll go on record now and say no one outside the western high plains or panhandle area (outside our subforum anyways), sees more than 3 wet inches. That's what SHE said. You may once again hit the nail on the head. However, from the discussions on this board, someone in our subforum may get orgasmic over 3 wet inches at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted December 17, 2011 Share Posted December 17, 2011 Even the turd that the GFS is showing tonight could drop a few inches for someone close by here.. Still plenty of time too for this.. Lol I hope its JB FTW.. "Classic Texas panhandle to lower lakes and I-90 corridor snow storm brewing for middle of next week. Get ready" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted December 17, 2011 Share Posted December 17, 2011 Few inches of rain a better bet. This weather is turning some of us in to Metfan plumpers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 17, 2011 Share Posted December 17, 2011 At this point I'll take the possible 1-4" of snow that might come with this and call it a day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 17, 2011 Share Posted December 17, 2011 At this point I'll take the possible 1-4" of snow that might come with this and call it a day. Of course I say this and then the 06z GFS trends hard toward the Euro. Now all that is left is the NAM and the GGEM again... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 17, 2011 Share Posted December 17, 2011 Of course I say this and then the 06z GFS trends hard toward the Euro. Now all that is left is the NAM and the GGEM again... This one never had a chance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 17, 2011 Share Posted December 17, 2011 This one never had a chance Hell the one after looks like crap then it gets warm. Sigh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 17, 2011 Share Posted December 17, 2011 6Z NAM looked good for a band of snow headed towards IL, but the 12Z NAM is slower and is suppressed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 17, 2011 Share Posted December 17, 2011 Euro has a few flakes on the backside for some folks...not much to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted December 17, 2011 Author Share Posted December 17, 2011 Thread fail. I'll crawl back under my rock and and let the seasoned pros start the storm threads. I clearly don't have the karma (or the pattern just sucks). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted December 17, 2011 Share Posted December 17, 2011 ---- Here we go with the Winter Pattern Hair loss! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 18, 2011 Share Posted December 18, 2011 0z NAM has about 1.0" of front end action for LAF with this disaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 18, 2011 Share Posted December 18, 2011 0z NAM has about 1.0" of front end action for LAF with this disaster. Temp profiles look pretty marginal. I guess we can't rule out some flakes at the start but I'm skeptical about 1" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted December 18, 2011 Share Posted December 18, 2011 At least when I fly home I'll be heading to a region that has measured snowfall without a . in front of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 18, 2011 Share Posted December 18, 2011 At least when I fly home I'll be heading to a region that has measured snowfall without a . in front of it. That is astounding that Grand Forks has under an inch for the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 18, 2011 Share Posted December 18, 2011 Temp profiles look pretty marginal. I guess we can't rule out some flakes at the start but I'm skeptical about 1" I attached the for a reason. I'd be surprised if we saw one flake. Anyways, I'm pulling for 0.50" or more rainfall so we can get to 50" for the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted December 18, 2011 Share Posted December 18, 2011 at this rate you may be able to count the accumulation numbers in flakes! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted December 18, 2011 Share Posted December 18, 2011 TOL needs .08" to become the wettest year on record... shouldn't be too hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 18, 2011 Share Posted December 18, 2011 I attached the for a reason. I'd be surprised if we saw one flake. Anyways, I'm pulling for 0.50" or more rainfall so we can get to 50" for the year. 12z took the snow away although it has a narrow stripe in northern Indiana. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 18, 2011 Share Posted December 18, 2011 Taking a look at this a little more, I wouldn't be surprised if there is a band of light accums (say 1-2") in a narrow band running across northern IL/IN before it changes to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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