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December 19 - 21 Storm System


IWXwx

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0z NAM coming in with stronger high compard to the GFS in the pac nw/nrn plains bringing down colder air with our system developing on the NM/TX border.

As expected it's already backing off this idea, much less cold air intrusion already on 12z and it's probably still overdone. The NAM has been rock solid consistent on overdoing it at this range. Just total garbage this year and barely worth looking at. The difference with the cold air over Canada by hour 60 compared to 0z are massive.

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As expected it's already backing off this idea, much less cold air intrusion already on 12z and it's probably still overdone. The NAM has been rock solid consistent on overdoing it at this range. Just total garbage this year and barely worth looking at. The difference with the cold air over Canada by hour 60 compared to 0z are massive.

It's not overdoing it, there is a reason for the difference.

Look at the strength of the system that is moving east across southern Canada. It's weaker on the 12z run which is causing the CAA to be weaker where the 0z run has a stronger system and stronger CAA into the nrn the plains behind it.

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It's not overdoing it, there is a reason for the difference.

Look at the strength of the system that is moving east across southern Canada. It's weaker on the 12z run which is causing the CAA to be weaker where the 0z run has a stronger system and stronger CAA into the nrn the plains behind it.

It overdid the strength of that system at 0z and is continuing to do so at 12z. Ride the Euro, a progressive and warm situation is where the smart money is heading.

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Looks like the high pressure in the dakotas is further southeast on the 12z GFS, possibly suppressing the system a bit further south.

Or this system is just weak. That low up in canada seems to be stealing the show.

I was thinking along those lines too. Doesn't look like the 0Z run from last night. We're not gonna know what this storm does until Sunday Pm!

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For S&Gs and because it's my style, i'll go on record now and say no one outside the western high plains or panhandle area (outside our subforum anyways), sees more than 3 wet inches.

That's what SHE said. :P

You may once again hit the nail on the head. However, from the discussions on this board, someone in our subforum may get orgasmic over 3 wet inches at this point.

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