cyclone77 Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 New GEM looks pretty similar to the 12z to me. At least the GEM and Euro provide some hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 New GEM looks pretty similar to the 12z to me. At least the GEM and Euro provide some hope. Looks like the new GEM pulls the cold air in better while the precipitation is around still into southern WI and parts of IL quicker than the 12Z. Looks like snow from the new run for your area. Better than a total torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 Through 108 hrs, 00z Euro looks like it's going to trying to miss the phase. Might end up with a weak piece of garbage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 00z Euro is horrid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 Through 108 hrs, 00z Euro looks like it's going to trying to miss the phase. Might end up with a weak piece of garbage. big pile of hot garbage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 00z euro is kinda similar to 12z; NOT. ULL is further south cold air is nonexistent .much warmer than 12z run. ..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 00z euro is kinda similar to 12z not even close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 Truth is? LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justin Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 If the Euro holds this solution for another run or two its time to say next.... pretty deflating, but considering the pattern so far this cold season, not surprising. Next.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 Lol nothing tops a storm going South of you and the 850mb temps roasting at 3-4c in Dec. Mother Nature is trolling pretty hard this winter. That is if you go by the Euro, if you go by the GGEM the low goes West of here and the 850 temps are below 0c. Maybe I should just bag it like Alek so I don't vest time in a fail storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 I bet ya anything when we do get the cold air, no storms will be present, or the storms will be suppressed to the South!--and wow at the temps in the 60s across Ill, with dews in and around 60f, really? :/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 06z GFS isn't too bad verbatim. Narrow swath of 3-6" snows from Chicago to Detroit. It's a sorry 3-6" of snow though, unless you like steady light/moderate small-flaked snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 NO COLD AIR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 06z GFS isn't too bad verbatim. Narrow swath of 3-6" snows from Chicago to Detroit. It's a sorry 3-6" of snow though, unless you like steady light/moderate small-flaked snow. more than that, atleast that run. 12z GFS even further north, huge changes from the 0z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 more than that, atleast that run. 12z GFS even further north, huge changes from the 0z run. Lock it in! 2 inches is better than nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 differences centered on 18z tues starting out with the 0z GFS, then 6z and 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 differences centered on 18z tues starting out with the 0z GFS, then 6z and 12z run. It's 3rd and 20 and your starting QB is out, might not be time to punt yet, but it's close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 It's 3rd and 20 and your starting QB is out, might not be time to punt yet, but it's close. Hopefully Tebow is in the game then lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 GGEM looks could enough for some accumulations across parts of Southern WI, northern IL, MI, and southern ON. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 GGEM looks could enough for some accumulations across parts of Southern WI, northern IL, MI, and southern ON. Yeah shows some nice snows from central Iowa into Wisconsin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 Yep, forgot about this site. Mostly rain across northern IL/Southern MI/ON, changing over towards the end. Yeah shows some nice snows from central Iowa into Wisconsin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 Would think the Euro comes north but who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 Would think the Euro comes north but who knows. You would assume with the lack of cold air Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 12z EURO through 120 misses the phase with the first s/w. Another lobe of energy is dropping down from MB at the time. It might try to phase with that but if the two streams remain disjointed this might be a suppressed looking run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoar_Frost Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 12z EURO through 120 misses the phase with the first s/w. Another lobe of energy is dropping down from MB at the time. It might try to phase with that but if the two streams remain disjointed this might be a suppressed looking run. 12z Euro is suppressed, not well-phased (at least over the Midwest), and anemic-looking, overall. 12z GFS op looks mediocre for my location: I would prefer a more southward track in the sfc low. The 540-dam line lies across southern Wisconsin through most of the event, and the 850-hPa 0 C isotherm lies at or just south of my location. Not having looked at any forecast soundings, I would guess that it would be a mainly rain event. Not excited about this system. And, December 2006 was better than this around here, with the large storm (~11" here) on 30 November and 01 December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 good summary of the situation by DVN THE MODELS ARE IN TWO CAMPS NOW WITH RESPECT TO THE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY STORM. THE GEM...UKMET...AND GFS RUNS SINCE 00Z LAST NIGHT HAVE GONE FARTHER NORTH...AND BRING A SIMILAR STORM TO THE MIDWEST THAN WAS SEEN IN THE PAST 2 DAYS. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF HAS TRENDED SOUTH...AND CLIPS THE CWA WITH LIGHT SNOW ON TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. THE MAJOR DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THESE MODELS BOILS DOWN TO HOW THEY HANDLE A SEPARATE SHORT WAVE THAT ENTERS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SATURDAY. THE GEM/UK/GFS ALL BRING THAT STORM INTO THE WA/OR COAST...AND PHASE THAT WAVE/KICK THE CLOSED LOW NORTHEASTWARD AND THEREFORE DEVELOP A SIGNIFICANT MIDWEST STORM. THE ECMWF BRINGS THIS WAVE INTO CENTRAL BRITISH COLUMBIA...AND AS IT MOVES IT EAST...IT OVER TOPS THE RIDGE ON THE WEST COAST VS KICKING THE LOW OUT WITH IT. AFTER OVERTOPPING...IT SWEEPS HIGH PRESSURE AND COLD AIR DOWN INTO THE MIDWEST FOR EARLY WEEK AND THEREFORE SUPPRESSES THE STORM SYSTEM SOUTH. SUCH A SMALL DIFFERENCE...RESULTS IN A MAJOR DIFFERENCES IN OUR WEATHER. THIS WAVE IN QUESTION IS REAL...BUT FOUND OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL PACIFIC OCEAN AS OF NOW...AND IS WITHIN A FAST BAND OF WESTERLY FLOW SOUTH OF A MAJOR ALEUTIAN LOW. THUS...GLOBAL MODELS WILL NO LIKELY LOCK CORRECTLY ONTO ITS POSITION AND STRENGTH FOR SOME DAYS. PREDICTING THE WEATHER IS A CHALLENGE...BUT THIS ONE WILL TAKE TIME TO BE WORKED OUT. UNTIL WE KNOW FOR SURE WHAT LATITUDE THIS WAVE MAKES LANDFALL IN THE PAC NORTHWEST...WE WILL NO KNOW WHETHER IT OVERTOPS OR PHASES/KICKS OUT OUR CLOSED LOW IN THE SOUTHWEST. TIME WILL CERTAINLY TELL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 18z GFS comes in like the 12z run but weaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justin Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 I'm going with the Euro at this point. Until the models quit jumping all over I won't put much faith in them. The Euro seems to be holding with the suppressed solution consistently for the last 24 hours or so, while the other models have jumped to showing a decent system after being suppressed. With this energy being out over the Pacific we won't have a good idea where that shortwave hits the coast until probably around 12hrs before it happens. In this forecasters mind another headache with so much variability in the models but I am riding the Euro as of now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justin Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 And I think there's a good chance we do repeat this all over again Xmas weekend quite possibly...if in fact we get another closed low over the Southwest with a fast Pacific jet shooting energy through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 Man I'd love to be able to look at the Euro ensembles. The GFS ensembles are kind of interesting. A few members show a slightly cooler, more dynamic system with more widespread snows. Of course a few are terrible as well lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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