Hoar_Frost Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 Still too early to be drawing any conclusions, in my opinion. There is little semblance of run-to-run continuity in any of the major models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 Still too early to be drawing any conclusions, in my opinion. There is little semblance of run-to-run continuity in any of the major models. I think the flip flop talk is overdone, low track is variable but the lack of a proper cold air connection and jet issues is always there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 I think the flip flop talk is overdone, low track is variable but the lack of a proper cold air connection and jet issues is always there. Temps are only a degree or 2 from being all snow, so I don't think it's makes sense to bag this one already as if it was over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 Sucks that we can only see 2 levels on the Euro (2m and 850 mb) but the 850 mb temps don't look bad. Your problem in that scenario may be mostly light precip which could fail to cool the low levels enough to allow for optimal sticking. 925 looks good other than one frame for Southern Ontario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 Temps are only a degree or 2 from being all snow, so I don't think it's makes sense to bag this one already as if it was over. I agree, but I think Alek is just preparing himself for the worst. He will have no chance of disappointment, and I don't blame him for taking that route. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 Temps are only a degree or 2 from being all snow, so I don't think it's makes sense to bag this one already as if it was over. It's not all over in the sense that a micro stripe of 1-4" is possible for someone, but i don't see anyway this one is a widespread good snow event for anyone. As far as MBY, almost zero shot at snow given lack of proper cold and open lake waters. Next. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 It's not all over in the sense that a micro stripe of 1-4" is possible for someone, but i don't see anyway this one is a widespread good snow event for anyone. As far as MBY, almost zero shot at snow given lack of proper cold and open lake waters. Next. I wouldn't say widespread either but beyond that this one has decent potential so I am not writing off a storm that is 6 days away yet. Maybe for your locale due to your proximity to Lake Michigan but I wouldn't write it off for Chicago's metro area as a whole either. Plus hell 1-4" of snow would please a lot of people around here right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 I wouldn't say widespread either but beyond that this one has decent potential so I am not writing off a storm that is 6 days away yet. Maybe for your locale due to your proximity to Lake Michigan but I wouldn't write it off for Chicago's metro area as a whole either. Plus hell 1-4" of snow would please a lot of people around here right now. For S&Gs and because it's my style, i'll go on record now and say no one outside the western high plains or panhandle area (outside our subforum anyways), sees more than 3 wet inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 It's not all over in the sense that a micro stripe of 1-4" is possible for someone, but i don't see anyway this one is a widespread good snow event for anyone. As far as MBY, almost zero shot at snow given lack of proper cold and open lake waters. Next. I guess a good thing for you is that although the pattern has been bad, the lake continues to cool with water temps now around 40. Might not have to waste an event where inland locations get hammered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 For S&Gs and because it's my style, i'll go on record now and say no one outside the western high plains or panhandle area (outside our subforum anyways), sees more than 3 wet inches. I would disagree with this but hey each to their own, I mean you did bag the storm that hit IN/MI pretty good so maybe we can have you bag all the storms at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 I would disagree with this but hey each to their own, I mean you did bag the storm that hit IN/MI pretty good so maybe we can have you bag all the storms at this range. I did well with location but was too high with amounts, i thought we'd see some 12"+ totals given the dynamic nature. This upcoming event has similar cold air issues and does not look anywhere near as dynamic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 I did well with location but was too high with amounts, i thought we'd see some 12"+ totals given the dynamic nature. This upcoming event has similar cold air issues and does not look anywhere near as dynamic. Yes you did well with location as it got closer, personally I'd said Northern IN over Lansing but you nailed it. as for dynamics this one isn't as dynamic as you said but the temps are much closer to snow to begin with. Also the 850 mb temps are colder this time around but at this point we are splitting hairs as its still 6 days out and it could easily be a rainstorm with temps in the upper 40s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 Thicknesses stay well above 540 through much of the event. Between that and the marginal boundary layer conditions I'd tend to lean towards rain. It'd be nice to look at soundings though. I wouldn't say much of the event, below 540 west of a line from SPI-MDW on this run by 12z Tues. And soundings show all snow by 6z Tues for MBY fwiw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern_IN_Wx Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 Just looking at the 12z Euro...and verbatin (which is obviously pointless this far in advance) has 925/850 temps subzero and 1000-850 mb thicknesses around 1295m for much of the event across far northern IL, southern WI, and MI. To me this hints at more snow than rain on the northern fringe...even with the progged 2m temps. At least we have something to monitor... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern_IN_Wx Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 verbatim... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 Here is the Quad Cities storm disco. They are leaning north toward the GEM/Euro and away from the GFS. SUNDAY...THERE BEGINS TO BE ANOTHER CHANGE TOWARD AN ACTIVE STORM SYSTEM. THERE ARE MAJOR DIFFERENCES IN THE POSITION OF A NORTHWEST FLOW WAVE THAT MAKES LANDFALL ON EITHER THE SOUTHWEST CANADIAN COAST/BRITISH COLUMBIA...OR NORTHWESTERN CONUS. THIS SMALL DIFFERENCE IN MODELS GREATLY INFLUENCED THE AMOUNT OF PHASING OF THE UPPER LOW WHICH SHOULD BE CUT OFF IN THE SOUTHWEST CONUS AT THAT TIME. THE UKMET...GEM...AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW THE NORTHWEST FLOW WAVE HITTING THE WA/OR COASTLINE THEN DRAWING THE CUT OFF LOW NORTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT. THE GFS MAKES A MORE NORTHERLY ENTRY INTO CENTRAL BRITISH COLUMBIA WITH THE NORTHWESTERN SHORT WAVE...THUS...IT IS DELAYED BY 24 HOURS ON PHASING WITH THE LOW IN THE SOUTHWEST...AND LESS SO AT THAT. THUS...FOR THAT REASON ALONE...THE GFS REMAINS FAR SOUTH OF OTHER GLOBAL MODELS...AS WELL AS SLOWER. THE CURRENT STORM OVERHEAD WAS ALSO FORECAST BY THE GFS TO BE FARTHER SOUTH WHEN IT WAS OUT IN THIS DAY 6 PERIOD FOR SIMILAR REASONS...AND THEREFORE WHEN COMBINED WITH THE FACT THAT THERE IS LITTLE OR NO SNOW COVER IN THE MIDWEST AND THERE IS NO ARCTIC AIR IN PLACE TO KEEP A SYSTEM SOUTH...I BELIEVE IN A MORE PHASED NORTHERLY SOLUTION. THIS POTENTIAL STORM LOOKS TO HAVE ANOTHER OPEN GULF...AND MODEST TO STRONG UPPER FORCING. THUS...SHOULD IT OCCUR...ANOTHER ROUND OF MODERATE RAIN IS LIKELY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 I don't know, I am just not liking the threat. The ECMWF is dangerously close to having that northern wave completely miss the phase. It unfortunately took a big step towards the suppressed and weak GFS which fits the seasonal trend regarding the split flow pattern. The EC ensemble looks more like the GFS/GEFS. I just don't know. I think for now it would be safer to remain pessimistic and hope for a big surprise if anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 Temps are only a degree or 2 from being all snow, so I don't think it's makes sense to bag this one already as if it was over. Agreed. We had a rippin' good storm 15 days ago at marginal temps around 34..33..32 that pummelled us with approx. 9" in six hrs. If rates are good, the upper air temps seem like they want to play friendly this year and these things can over-achieve what the models would indicate. This is far from over, but the "now we're a go, now we're not" flopping around is crap with a capital C. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 The Euro model looks good for snow IMBY, but am worried about an onshore flow off Lake Michigan causing mix issues near the lake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justin Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 I'm willing to wait this one out and see what happens. I think this might be the one to bring the first serious threat of accumulating snowfall. It likely won't be a whole lot but it'll be the first one, and will at least make it feel like Christmas. Unfortunately its probably going to head back towards 40F+ after this system goes on by...so it won't stick around for long. The upper/mid level temps do seem to want to play with this one, so the track will be critical as to who may get something. I'm cautiously optimistic. I've let a few clients know I'm leaning towards a rain quickly changing to snow event Monday evening until late Tuesday morning with changeover dictating snow amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 Here is part of the long-term Area Forecast Discussion from the NWS in Northern Indiana... MON-WED...CHANCES FOR A DECENT STORM SYSTEM CONTINUE...AS AN ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM IMPULSE LIKELY INTERACTS WITH ANOTHER SW CONUS UPPER LOW. ADVECTION TIMING/THERMAL FIELDS/AND HEIGHT FALL DEPTH INTO THE REGION IS STILL MUCH UNCERTAIN...BUT GIVEN THE GFS/S TENDENCY TOWARD PROGRESSIVE FLOW...LIKELY BIASING THE NAEFS SOLUTIONS...HAVE CONTINUED TO SIDE TOWARD THE MORE RELIABLE ECMWF. A TREND TO A DEEPER H5 SOLUTION WOULD CERTAINLY BE NEEDED...ESP IF WAVE PHASING RESULTS...WITH COUPLED JET DYNAMICS LIKELY SHIFTING THE SFC LOW TRACK NW OF THE FA...AS SEEN IN THE GEM. RETAINED A RAIN/SNOW MENTION IN MOST PERIODS...MAINLY TO COVER UNCERTAINTY...BUT IT CERTAINLY LOOKS LIKE RAIN WILL BE THE DOMINATE WEATHER TYPE IN THE PERIOD...ESP SE HALF. CONTINUE TO EXPECT MORE ADJUSTMENT IN THIS PERIOD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 ILX going with rain for now but mentioning the possibility of a snow event AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL 535 PM CST WED DEC 14 2011 LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY QUIET AND SEASONABLE WEATHER IS ON TAP FOR THE FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY PERIOD. ZONAL/WNW FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE TRANQUIL CONDITIONS. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST LATE IN THE WEEKEND SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM IN THE SW. CURRENT INDICATIONS SHOW THIS EVENT MAY BE SIMILAR TO THE STORM THAT IS CURRENTLY IMPACTING THE AREA. THE 12Z ECMWF AND CANADIAN GEM ARE SIMILAR IN TRACKING A STRONG LOW FROM THE TX PANHANDLE REGION MONDAY MORNING...INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES BY TUESDAY EVENING. 12Z GFS IS MUCH SLOWER AND FARTHER SOUTH AND WAS NOT FOLLOWED FOR THIS FORECAST. EVENTUAL LOW TRACK WILL DETERMINE EXACT PRECIP TYPE AND AMOUNTS...BUT CURRENT SOLUTION WOULD POINT TO PRIMARILY ANOTHER MODERATE RAIN EVENT FOR THE CWA FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. LATER MODEL RUNS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED...AS ECMWF DIGS A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE INTO THE MIDWEST FOR A MORE PHASED SYSTEM AND POTENTIAL SNOW BAND ON THE NW SIDE OF THE STORM. AFTER A BRIEF SHOT OF COLDER AIR BEHIND THIS LOW...ZONAL FLOW LOOKS TO MODERATE TEMPS FOR MID WEEK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted December 15, 2011 Author Share Posted December 15, 2011 ILX going with rain for now but mentioning the possibility of a snow event AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL 535 PM CST WED DEC 14 2011 LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY QUIET AND SEASONABLE WEATHER IS ON TAP FOR THE FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY PERIOD. ZONAL/WNW FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE TRANQUIL CONDITIONS. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST LATE IN THE WEEKEND SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM IN THE SW. CURRENT INDICATIONS SHOW THIS EVENT MAY BE SIMILAR TO THE STORM THAT IS CURRENTLY IMPACTING THE AREA. THE 12Z ECMWF AND CANADIAN GEM ARE SIMILAR IN TRACKING A STRONG LOW FROM THE TX PANHANDLE REGION MONDAY MORNING...INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES BY TUESDAY EVENING. 12Z GFS IS MUCH SLOWER AND FARTHER SOUTH AND WAS NOT FOLLOWED FOR THIS FORECAST. EVENTUAL LOW TRACK WILL DETERMINE EXACT PRECIP TYPE AND AMOUNTS...BUT CURRENT SOLUTION WOULD POINT TO PRIMARILY ANOTHER MODERATE RAIN EVENT FOR THE CWA FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. LATER MODEL RUNS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED...AS ECMWF DIGS A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE INTO THE MIDWEST FOR A MORE PHASED SYSTEM AND POTENTIAL SNOW BAND ON THE NW SIDE OF THE STORM. AFTER A BRIEF SHOT OF COLDER AIR BEHIND THIS LOW...ZONAL FLOW LOOKS TO MODERATE TEMPS FOR MID WEEK. Hence my subtitle for this thread. I am just hoping that there may a LITTLE cold air to work so that SOMEONE in our subforum would get to enjoy some snow. Here's hoping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 Correct me if I'm wrong here, but it looks like the 12z EURO may have actually been pretty decent for my area wrt next week's storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 Correct me if I'm wrong here, but it looks like the 12z EURO may have actually been pretty decent for my area wrt next week's storm? Sfc temps a little warm, but it'd be close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 Not being spoiled being objective. I have stated this month were over due for a lack luster kind of winter I fine with that. A lot of this winter is gone. Places like Cleveland and Chicago haven't even had an Inch of snow! Gaylord 9.8" really? they average 109" a season. They will be lucky to hit 60-70 inches this season. I guarantee you that 70-75% of the Midwest will finish below average on snowfall and there's no guarantee if the cold/frigid air gets locked into the MW in Jan, that there will be a favorable track... Usually benefits the lower Ohio Valley and the NE. BTW: This winter starts dec 21st is all crap for the MW. You know very well that the north woods winter starts after Halloween and along I-80 its around Thanksgiving points after. Luckily places like Detroit and Lansing have done decent to this point. We have a better chance at hitting average this season but a lot of places...WOW what a bad start . BTW: Winnipeg and Edmonton no snow depth... thats nuts lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 Pathetic.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 Pathetic.. right there with ya. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 Really blows there is no good low level cold air with this one...GFS did come north with the ULL and precip shield a bit but its still rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 Really blows there is no good low level cold air with this one...GFS did come north with the ULL and precip shield a bit but its still rain. WOW how do I have 6" on the year with this pattern? damn this is not looking good. Can this compete with 97/98? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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