Chicago WX Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 On 12/19/2011 at 7:23 PM, Hoosier said: I'm not sure why the Euro snow map is showing that. 850 mb temps look too warm for snow here. I'm not sure why either. Seems those maps did the same with the early December event around here (too "snowy"). Just going to ignore them for now, unless by some wild chance they verify of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 FWIW, the long range RUC shows some wet snow on the northern fringe of the precip shield tomorrow morning.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 In Madison we'll be lucky to see one freezing drizzle droplet. Got a 100 kt jet screaming overhead currently, that tends to block things from coming north a bit! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 New 18z NAM shows a possible secondary stripe of snow from Sedalia, MO to Chicago on the back side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 On 12/19/2011 at 8:43 PM, Geos said: New 18z NAM shows a possible secondary stripe of snow from Sedalia, MO to Chicago on the back side. No it doe not, way too warm in the low levels. Using the 0 degree isotherm at 850mb will burn you alot of the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 On 12/19/2011 at 9:19 PM, Thundersnow12 said: No it doe not, way too warm in the low levels. Using the 0 degree isotherm at 850mb will burn you alot of the time. LOT is talking about a chance of flipping back over to snow tomorrow night on the backside in their recently issued SWS.. Quote AS THE LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND TO INDIANABY WEDNESDAY MORNING...COLDER AIR WILL WRAP BACK INTO THE REGION. THIS IS LIKELY TO TRANSITION THE RAIN TO SNOW IN SOME AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. MINOR ACCUMULATIONS...UNDER ONE INCH...ARE POSSIBLE DURING THAT TIME. http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=lot&wwa=special%20weather%20statement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 On 12/19/2011 at 9:25 PM, BeastFromtheEast said: LOT is talking about a chance of flipping back over to snow tomorrow night on the backside in their recently issued SWS.. http://forecast.weat...her%20statement I was just going to say... that's why I think the 0° isotherm was legit for ground level. NAM typically has dynamic cooling shown under heavier precip too. My local forecast has been trending more wintry this afternoon. High temperatures for Wednesday have been taken down a notch to 37° from 41°. Snow and sleet forecast for tomorrow afternoon with mix at night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Moved the pessimism/optimism discussion to the obs/disco thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 0z NAM backs off and doesn't really show any precip making it north past I-80 up here.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Couple days ago the models were trending north with the precip. The NAM even had me up to near a quarter inch. However, that's all gone once again. Tonight's NAM and GFS are down to little more than a trace. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 On 12/20/2011 at 3:55 AM, hawkeye_wx said: Couple days ago the models were trending north with the precip. The NAM even had me up to near a quarter inch. However, that's all gone once again. Tonight's NAM and GFS are down to little more than a trace. Maybe next time. LOL. This season absolutely sucks so far. Still a long ways to go, but it sure would be nice to see a little more light at the end of the tunnel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Surface temps still in the upper 30's in northern IL/IN but should see cooling into the low/mid 30's later to allow a thin band of snow to develop on the northern fringes. The area roughly I-80 to about 50 miles south of there may be most favored with overlap of precip and supportive temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 FWA reporting -rasn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 On 12/20/2011 at 7:01 AM, Hoosier said: FWA reporting -rasn Keep us updated, please. IWXwx is down 2 precipitation types, 2 to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 On 12/20/2011 at 7:07 AM, Chicago WX said: Keep us updated, please. IWXwx is down 2 precipitation types, 2 to go. Posting about rain/snow on December 20...this is pathetic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 On 12/20/2011 at 7:10 AM, Hoosier said: Posting about rain/snow on December 20...this is pathetic. It isn't good. Such a stark difference for us to last December. Man that was a pretty good month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted December 20, 2011 Author Share Posted December 20, 2011 Well, I've got head off to work, but right now I've only had 3 out of 4. I am currently getting rain, snow, and sleet all at the same time. I don't think surface temps will be cold enough for zr, as it has been hanging around 33 for the past 3 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Woke up to about 3/4" of snow, with a nice band basically stationary over me. Was still snowing while I left. Snowing very lightly just north of Findlay right now too... although very little accumulations. I assume my house will get about an inch today before it melts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 What i find amazing is how such a potent developing storm last evening can shiit the bed so fast...synoptic destruction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 On 12/20/2011 at 1:26 PM, Alek said: What i find amazing is how such a potent developing storm last evening can shiit the bed so fast...synoptic destruction. l asked the same ? the other day. Still crazy to me how the cold air can make it all the way down to kansas, while the system will provide rain here a 1000 miles further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Warm lake temps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 On 12/20/2011 at 2:34 PM, Stevo6899 said: l asked the same ? the other day. Still crazy to me how the cold air can make it all the way down to kansas, while the system will provide rain here a 1000 miles further north. One thing that helps is the elevation difference. The hardest hit areas are above 2500'. The upslope flow helps cool the atmosphere as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Getting a nice very light rain, sleet, snow mixture here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Precip pushing towards the WI/IL border!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 On 12/20/2011 at 7:59 PM, turtlehurricane said: Precip pushing towards the WI/IL border!? judging by the above report from Hoffman, look forward to a light wintery mix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Looping the national radar right now really shows what a garbage system this turned out to be for us after a great start in the SW. Geez. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 On 12/20/2011 at 8:01 PM, Alek said: judging by the above report from Hoffman, look forward to a light wintery mix. Yep its been light, nothing crazy, but I did have some nice flake size for a bit a few minutes ago.. At this point this weenie will take whatever he can get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 A bit of -RASN falling here too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 On 12/20/2011 at 8:10 PM, BeastFromtheEast said: Yep its been light, nothing crazy, but I did have some nice flake size for a bit a few minutes ago.. At this point this weenie will take whatever he can get. yep, I'd take a light winterymix fo sho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 On 12/20/2011 at 8:09 PM, Chicago WX said: Looping the national radar right now really shows what a garbage system this turned out to be for us after a great start in the SW. Geez. yeah I mentioned that earlier this morning, go to bed and it's a healthy raging monster, wake up and it's a turd, total synoptic destruction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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