BeastFromTheEast Posted December 18, 2011 Share Posted December 18, 2011 On 12/18/2011 at 6:56 PM, Hoosier said: Taking a look at this a little more, I wouldn't be surprised if there is a band of light accums (say 1-2") in a narrow band running across northern IL/IN before it changes to rain. Yeah high res-models are starting to show hints of that as well.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 18, 2011 Share Posted December 18, 2011 On 12/18/2011 at 7:01 PM, BeastFromtheEast said: Yeah high res-models are starting to show hints of that as well.. GGEM has the band a bit farther south and would put LAF in the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 18, 2011 Share Posted December 18, 2011 MKX forecasting snow, sleet in the beginning and ending with drizzle or freezing drizzle. Probably by tomorrow morning it'll be something different again! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Looks like freezing rain is possible Wednesday morning with this. If it ends up being a bit more moist that could be fun, I have yet to experience a true ZR situation, only some freezing drizzle once. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Curious why this storm is peaking so quick in the southern plains and fading as it heads north? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 On 12/19/2011 at 12:56 AM, Stevo6899 said: Curious why this storm is peaking so quick in the southern plains and fading as it heads north? As it comes north it gets stretched out and becomes much broader due to interacting with the jet stream. It's one of those things that can still change at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 I know it's not lakes/OV related, but this storm should be very fun to watch tomorrow out over the Plains. Some places in southwest Kansas and southeast Colorado were in the 60s today, and by later tomorrow will be in blizzard conditions. Looks like 8-15" over a fairly wide swath. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 A nice band of precip(frozen?) on the 0z NAM for N IL. towards the tail end of the storm... LOT talked about it in their AFD as well. Also look like something fun brewing towards the end of the run out west.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 On 12/19/2011 at 2:40 AM, BeastFromtheEast said: A nice band of precip(frozen?) on the 0z NAM for N IL. towards the tail end of the storm... Also look like something fun brewing towards the end of the run out west.. Just looking quickly it appears most or all of that falls before it gets cold enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 On 12/19/2011 at 2:45 AM, Hoosier said: Just looking quickly it appears most or all of that falls before it gets cold enough. Looks like it, but LOT talked about it in their AFD today though so still something to look out for.. Quote A CHANGEBACK TO SNOW MAY OCCUR INTO THE DAY WEDNESDAY. SOME ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WITH THIS...BUT RIGHT NOW CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON HOW MUCH WRAPAROUND MOISTURE AND FORCING THERE WILL BE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 On 12/19/2011 at 2:40 AM, BeastFromtheEast said: A nice band of precip(frozen?) on the 0z NAM for N IL. towards the tail end of the storm... It's rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 0z NAM has a 3-6hr period of front end snow around here during the day tuesday looking at soundings before the WAA pushes us above freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 On 12/19/2011 at 2:45 AM, Hoosier said: Just looking quickly it appears most or all of that falls before it gets cold enough. Agreed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 On 12/19/2011 at 2:50 AM, Thundersnow12 said: 0z NAM has a 3-6hr period of front end snow around here during the day tuesday looking at soundings before the WAA pushes us above freezing. NAM just a bit too warm here. I gotta hope the GGEM pulls this one out but not holding my breath lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 On 12/19/2011 at 1:25 AM, turtlehurricane said: As it comes north it gets stretched out and becomes much broader due to interacting with the jet stream. It's one of those things that can still change at this range. Can change but probably wont unless the models are REALLY off with the jet etc. Such a shame to see such a system basically go to waste and dump on places hardly anyone lives. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 NAM's too warm for snow on the backside this run, except for the far western portion of the state (note the 850mb temps). BTW, the QPF is for the previous 6hr temperature profiles, so it's probably even warmer when the QPF in Northern Illinois falls than what's shown at 66hr... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 congrats everybody Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 On 12/19/2011 at 2:52 AM, Hoosier said: NAM just a bit too warm here. I gotta hope the GGEM pulls this one out but not holding my breath lol Maybe some pingers (33-39 hrs)? Probably not though, cold air is probably too shallow. http://68.226.77.253...NAM212_KLAF.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 BTW, no one like to hear this, but the energy in the SW still has yet to be fully sampled FWIW. A 1-3" front-end thumping is better than nothing, which looks to be possible for someone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 On 12/19/2011 at 3:10 AM, Chicago WX said: Maybe some pingers (33-39 hrs)? Probably not though, cold air is probably too shallow. http://68.226.77.253...NAM212_KLAF.txt Yeah I doubt it. The profiles actually look more favorable for freezing rain (pretty thick warm layer even though it's not very warm) if surface temps were cold enough but they're not on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 fcst sounding for ORD at 18z tuesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Hoping we can squeeze out a wet inch or two here, but not counting on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 0z Euro looks like it has some front end snow too with sfc temps just abover freezing during the late morning on tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 NAM picking up on the dynamic cooling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 New Euro looks pretty interesting for some locations. Drops a few inches of snow from central Illinois through Indiana into northwest Ohio on the front end later tonight and tomorrow morning. Looks like Peoria/LAF/Kokomo/Lima are lined up best per Euro. It'd be nice to at least see someone get something out of this besides the Plains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 On 12/19/2011 at 6:45 PM, cyclone77 said: New Euro looks pretty interesting for some locations. Drops a few inches of snow from central Illinois through Indiana into northwest Ohio on the front end later tonight and tomorrow morning. Looks like Peoria/LAF/Kokomo/Lima are lined up best per Euro. It'd be nice to at least see someone get something out of this besides the Plains. Interesting. GFS and NAM have nothing but rain here. I wonder if the wunderground Euro snowfall maps are contaminated by other frozen/freezing p-types? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 On 12/19/2011 at 6:49 PM, Chicago WX said: Interesting. GFS and NAM have nothing but rain here. I wonder if the wunderground Euro snowfall maps are contaminated by other frozen/freezing p-types? Yeah I'm not sure. Still not much experience with it. Something to watch I guess. At least there's some hope lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 On 12/19/2011 at 6:55 PM, cyclone77 said: Yeah I'm not sure. Still not much experience with it. Something to watch I guess. At least there's some hope lol. It would be a coup by the Euro if it happened. Even the RGEM p-type maps have nothing but rain. Long live the Euro wunderground snowfall maps! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 On 12/19/2011 at 6:57 PM, Chicago WX said: It would be a coup by the Euro if it happened. Even the RGEM p-type maps have nothing but rain. Long live the Euro wunderground snowfall maps! IIRC the RGEM had indicated a stripe of front end snows similar to where the Euro is showing it. Doesn't really mean much at this point I guess, but it sort of makes you wonder a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 On 12/19/2011 at 6:49 PM, Chicago WX said: Interesting. GFS and NAM have nothing but rain here. I wonder if the wunderground Euro snowfall maps are contaminated by other frozen/freezing p-types? I'm not sure why the Euro snow map is showing that. 850 mb temps look too warm for snow here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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