IWXwx Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 I never start threads, and certainly not storm threads. However, we need something to mix things up here in the MW/OV, so here it goes. As BI and others have mentioned, the current pattern is giving the models fits in the mid-range. IWX puts it succinctly in describing the forecast challenge for this next weather-maker: 00Z ECMWF SUGGESTS THIS LOW WILL TAKE A MUCH MORE NWLY TRACK THAN PREVIOUS RUN... PUTTING OUR CWA WELL INTO THE WARM SECTOR WITH BULK OF PRECIP IN OUR AREA FALLING AS RAIN...PSBLY ENDING AS SW-. 00Z GFS MAINTAINS THE CIRCULATION LONGER THAN ITS PREVIOUS RUNS WITH CONSIDERABLY SLOWER MOVEMENT AND MORE SELY TRACK THAN THE ECMWF. THIS SOLUTION SUGGESTS BULK OF PRECIP IN OUR CWA WOULD BE SNOW....FALLING MAINLY ACROSS THE SE 1/2. GEFS SPAGHETTI PLOTS SUGGEST BOTH THE OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF SCENARIOS PSBL. CONSIDERING MODEL BIASES... EXPECT A SLOWER MOVG SYSTEM THAN THE ECMWF WITH A MORE NWLY TRACK THAN GFS WILL BE THE FINAL SOLUTION. GOING CHC OF RN/SN MON-TUE STILL APPEARS TO BE THE BEST FCST ATTM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 Godspeed IWXwx. But I always liked the warmer GFS solution. I became a little quizzical when it shifted towards the other globals yesterday, but now that the GGEM and EURO have trended NW, I'm more confident warm is the right way to go. It sucks but the models are going to play with our hearts trying to change the pattern too quickly. I still see the "light at the end of the tunnel" but it's going to be after Christmas imho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 Godspeed IWXwx. But I always liked the warmer GFS solution. I became a little quizzical when it shifted towards the other globals yesterday, but now that the GGEM and EURO have trended NW, I'm more confident warm is the right way to go. It sucks but the models are going to play with our hearts trying to change the pattern too quickly. I still see the "light at the end of the tunnel" but it's going to be after Christmas imho. Its called the winter of 2012/2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 January will roar in. 1998 is a fantasty won't happen again until we see a decent El Niño. There is a legimate light at the end of the tunnel. It's called Climo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 Not very confident about my chances, actually I expect nothing but rain, but hopefully someone in the Midwest/Lakes sees some snow with this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 January will roar in. 1998 is a fantasty won't happen again until we see a decent El Niño. There is a legimate light at the end of the tunnel. It's called Climo. 1997-98? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 Given the crap pattern, even the jackpot zones won't be impressive...next. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 Winter of 98...Detroits warmest on record. 1997-98? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 I'm guessing that's 1997-98. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 January will roar in. 1998 is a fantasty won't happen again until we see a decent El Niño. There is a legimate light at the end of the tunnel. It's called Climo. AMEN! So true, so true! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 I'm guessing that's 1997-98. Tied for 4th warmest winter on record with 2001-02, not the warmest. 1881-82, 1931-32, and 1889-90 were all warmer (and I guarentee you GW was not so much as mentioned when any of those top 3 occurred lol). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 Its called the winter of 2012/2013 I dont think so. Winter hasnt even officially started lol. My how spoiled weve become these past several years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern_IN_Wx Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 I dont think so. Winter hasnt even officially started lol. My how spoiled weve become these past several years yeah i don't understand all the panicking and complaining. I grew up in Lima OH where most winters didn't get going until after Christmas. And this looks to definitely be the case this December. Hopefully January thru March delivers. Spoiled for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 I totally get the it's early talk and 1 storm oftem makes or breaks a season but lets not play the winter hasn't technically started card yet...given sun angle and climo, December is and will continue to be a major part of the regions snow season and a near record slow start does not bode well for the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 I totally get the it's early talk and 1 storm oftem makes or breaks a season but lets not play the winter hasn't technically started card yet...given sun angle and climo, December is and will continue to be a major part of the regions snow season and a near record slow start does not bode well for the season. Also add in the fact that averages add in October and November snow, which many did not see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern_IN_Wx Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 I totally get the it's early talk and 1 storm oftem makes or breaks a season but lets not play the winter hasn't technically started card yet...given sun angle and climo, December is and will continue to be a major part of the regions snow season and a near record slow start does not bode well for the season. I agree with you for the along/north of I-80 crowd. South of here normally does not see much snow before Christmas. Like you said...It will just take one big storm to "catch up" regardless... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 I totally get the it's early talk and 1 storm oftem makes or breaks a season but lets not play the winter hasn't technically started card yet...given sun angle and climo, December is and will continue to be a major part of the regions snow season and a near record slow start does not bode well for the season. Agreed. We are looking at a massive hunk of the midwest that is running below normal, not just a few isolated areas. Too many people on this board are IMBY and don't realize just how many snowstorms it will take for the region as a whole to break close to even. Look at the snowfall deficits that have built up in the northern midwest. Its going to take an incredible pattern that rocks Duluth as equally hard as Indianapolis. Otherwise, its a safe bet that several sites in the midwest will be below average come April, just a matter of where at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 GFS is headed for the Gulf of Mexico... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 GFS is headed for the Gulf of Mexico... with the 0z 850 line already near Chicago, screw this pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 with the 0z 850 line already near Chicago, screw this pattern. I'm sure you're leaning toward the GEM and Euro's Upper Midwest storm idea, right? At least those areas could use some snow as well, along with pretty much everyone but the Interior Northeast (who surprisingly have squeaked out a couple great storms in 2011-12. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 Toasty. Weak CAD signature that I'll investigate further once these maps come out on EWALL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 I'm sure you're leaning toward the GEM and Euro's Upper Midwest storm idea, right? At least those areas could use some snow as well, along with pretty much everyone but the Interior Northeast (who surprisingly have squeaked out a couple great storms in 2011-12. there is no cold air and will be no widespread snows for anyone with this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 there is no cold air and will be no widespread snows for anyone with this system. Even in N Wisconsin and Minnesota? I wouldn't give up on their chances so fast if something close to the Euro or GEM verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 Even in N Wisconsin and Minnesota? I wouldn't give up on their chances so fast if something close to the Euro or GEM verifies. yep, even those places, at least nothing widespread, outside the west texas high pains area, this one is DOA, the 200-300 mb maps are total junk, major cold air issues and it's not like it's lurking just north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 I dont think so. Winter hasnt even officially started lol. My how spoiled weve become these past several years Not being spoiled being objective. I have stated this month were over due for a lack luster kind of winter I fine with that. A lot of this winter is gone. Places like Cleveland and Chicago haven't even had an Inch of snow! Gaylord 9.8" really? they average 109" a season. They will be lucky to hit 60-70 inches this season. I guarantee you that 70-75% of the Midwest will finish below average on snowfall and there's no guarantee if the cold/frigid air gets locked into the MW in Jan, that there will be a favorable track... Usually benefits the lower Ohio Valley and the NE. BTW: This winter starts dec 21st is all crap for the MW. You know very well that the north woods winter starts after Halloween and along I-80 its around Thanksgiving points after. Luckily places like Detroit and Lansing have done decent to this point. We have a better chance at hitting average this season but a lot of places...WOW what a bad start . BTW: Winnipeg and Edmonton no snow depth... thats nuts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnweather Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 Not being spoiled being objective. I have stated this month were over due for a lack luster kind of winter I fine with that. A lot of this winter is gone. Places like Cleveland and Chicago haven't even had an Inch of snow! Gaylord 9.8" really? they average 109" a season. They will be lucky to hit 60-70 inches this season. I guarantee you that 70-75% of the Midwest will finish below average on snowfall and there's no guarantee if the cold/frigid air gets locked into the MW in Jan, that there will be a favorable track... Usually benefits the lower Ohio Valley and the NE. BTW: This winter starts dec 21st is all crap for the MW. You know very well that the north woods winter starts after Halloween and along I-80 its around Thanksgiving points after. Luckily places like Detroit and Lansing have done decent to this point. We have a better chance at hitting average this season but a lot of places...WOW what a bad start . BTW: Winnipeg and Edmonton no snow depth... thats nuts Yeah I agree, people say winter hasn't started yet but snow season sure should have started by now. The northwoods up here are off to a horrible start and even if we have average snow after today it will still be way down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 Winter may be off to a horrible start but folks we've got 3 and a half months! Look at the storm pattern we had last April, if anything even close to that breaks out we'll be buried under snow out here in Great Lakes. Come on it's mid December, long way to go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Michigander Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 Yeah I agree, people say winter hasn't started yet but snow season sure should have started by now. The northwoods up here are off to a horrible start and even if we have average snow after today it will still be way down. Meteorological Winter starts December 1st. Also the coldest day (on average) around here is January 21st. Assuming each season gets 3 months (90 days), and winter is centered around the coldest day, you get a range of Dec 7 to March 6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 The sky is falling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 The sky is falling. Think maybe you should go easy on the posting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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