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0z Models 12/13/2010


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Guest someguy

0z euro-- recall te 12z eureo thread where i posted the MAPS for the Jan 1996 analog?

in THAT case and in the 12z sunday euro solution

the western 500 Low over MB / western Great Lakes drops southeast INTO the southern stream..

they phase... trough axis goes negative

In The 0Z monday RUN... the 500 low over the MB / westyern Great Lakes does NOT drops southeast

no full phase

no Low...

  On 12/13/2010 at 6:30 AM, Midlo Snow Maker said:

day 6

101213062845.gif

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Guest someguy

SEE THE DARK BLUE OVAL OVER LAKE SUPERIOR??

that is what HAS to drop se for this to occur

  On 12/13/2010 at 6:23 AM, Midlo Snow Maker said:

day 5

101213062243.gif

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  On 12/13/2010 at 6:53 AM, negative-nao said:

I apologize for jumping the gun. but everyone gets so hype up on models 7 days out. Lets see how this plays out this week and not call it 7 days out.. Its called meteorolgy not modelology

It's funny you say that because you just canceled the threat after one run of the euro!

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  On 12/13/2010 at 6:42 AM, someguy said:

0z euro-- recall te 12z eureo thread where i posted the MAPS for the Jan 1996 analog?

in THAT case and in the 12z sunday euro solution

the western 500 Low over MB / western Great Lakes drops southeast INTO the southern stream..

they pha!!!se... trough axis goes negative

In The 0Z monday RUN... the 500 low over the MB / westyern Great Lakes does NOT drops southeast

no full phase

no Low...

..

Good show someguy.!!! Now we have to wait and see what happens. Is this just a 50/50 chance at this point of happening.?? All the models seem to see it now. Question, does it happen.??? Have to wait and seee!!! You are the one who saw the possibility and that is all it is now a possibility. Kudos to you no matter what the outcome.!!!!

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So aside from what the models are saying, what do YOU think makes sense here with this pattern? All I've seen is you predicting what the models will show, not what you think will actually happen irt real weather. I dont mean any offense, just that you are more talented at forecasting wx than telling us what guidance will spit out.

IRT to massive block retrograding, something has to give and I personally don't buy the flat solutions one iota.

  On 12/13/2010 at 6:42 AM, someguy said:

0z euro-- recall te 12z eureo thread where i posted the MAPS for the Jan 1996 analog?

in THAT case and in the 12z sunday euro solution

the western 500 Low over MB / western Great Lakes drops southeast INTO the southern stream..

they phase... trough axis goes negative

In The 0Z monday RUN... the 500 low over the MB / westyern Great Lakes does NOT drops southeast

no full phase

no Low...

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  On 12/13/2010 at 1:30 PM, SteveB said:

So aside from what the models are saying, what do YOU think makes sense here with this pattern? All I've seen is you predicting what the models will show, not what you think will actually happen irt real weather. I dont mean any offense, just that you are more talented at forecasting wx than telling us what guidance will spit out.

IRT to massive block retrograding, something has to give and I personally don't buy the flat solutions one iota.

You can't ask any met to predict what will happen with this at this point. It's impossible to know. HPC is saying 5% chance right now. I would expect most mets to be in the same ballpark.

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