Kaner587 Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 The question is.. what if Dr. No makes a comeback tonight? wouldn't surprise me but lets hope for our sake the EURO latches on to this one for good. Dr. yes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 DT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 A lot of major snowstorms occur as a negative NAO period is rising because of the track of this Atlantic block. When a strong -NAO is in place, the jet stream is suppressed to the south, and any storm attempting to gain latitude will get sheared out by the tight jet. It kind of acts like a shield. We are seeing this with the system next week. When the block retrogrades into Canada, a coming storm is forced to the NE along it, and up the east coast. Since the coming -NAO period is likely to be among if not the most extreme period on record, and the predicted block is expected to retrograde into a very favorable spot, wouldn't logic cite that a threat around Dec 19-20 has a good chance of happening? I'd say odds are as good as they get from 7 days away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 "I'm dreaming of a White Christmas" Bing Crosby Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 what a beaut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest someguy Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 AGAIN matches the 30-31 JAN 1966 overall synoptic pattern very nicely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 and look where that central/western ridge is centered...Boise ID Edit: maybe slightly east but you catch my drift Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 what a beaut I knew the Gfs would come around Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Dave, if this storm pans out, major kudos are due to you. Either way, you sniffed out the model changes that occurred today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JERSEYSNOWROB Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 DT AND those amounts should increase as we get closer to the event. Simply incredible. Should be a fun week ahead for all of us! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ger Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Looks like a footer to me in DC, esp. with the bombogenesis between the SC coast and Ocean City, MD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Dave, if this storm pans out, major kudos are due to you. Either way, you sniffed out the model changes that occurred today. yep yes they do folks reading this thread neeed to knwo that this is real close to happening but we are NOT quite there yet there could be a point soon where all or some of the operational Models turns very Bullish on a secs OR mecs event real soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 AND those amounts should increase as we get closer to the event. Simply incredible. Should be a fun week ahead for all of us! thats at 174 btw...CNJ-NYC have another .5+ afterwards Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 ggem agrees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JERSEYSNOWROB Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 thats at 174 btw...CNJ-NYC have another .5+ afterwards and even those amounts should increase. ha ha ha Crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 and even those amounts should increase. ha ha ha Crazy. Give some reasoning. Why should the amounts increase? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 13, 2010 Author Share Posted December 13, 2010 GGEM is on board, just saw 144....very nice system taking shape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest someguy Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Dave, if this storm pans out, major kudos are due to you. Either way, you sniffed out the model changes that occurred today. thanks the Midwest Low event and this one DEC 19-20 are really most instructional on which ones are patterns that support secs mecs hecs and which ones arennot. One needs to know this so that when a Model;.. ANY model has a Low on the or neat the coast you can see which solution is crap and which ones is sometihing to start maming one growl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 The GGEM looks good...it may whiff slightly to the east given the PV orientation which is not as phased as the 00z GFS OP. That being said, that's a potent shortwave nearing the trough base at 144 hours and it's most likely signaling the development of a strong cyclone within 12-24 hours from that frame. Overall the signal for dramatic potential continues.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JERSEYSNOWROB Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Give some reasoning. Why should the amounts increase? based on history. The models will never show what the true totals will be until we get much closer to the event and they almost always end up underestimating the true amounts this far out with these coastal storms. Why exactly that is I have no idea. A met could probably answer that for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 You can loop the GGEM here for those interested to see the pattern progression..nearly textbook given the PV orientation, as well as the broad trough developing near the MS River and then deepening eastward, and especially with the block developing and retrograding towards Greenland and N Canada. http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/model_forecast/animateweb_e.html?imagetype=model_forecast&imagename=00_054_G1_north@america@zoomout_I_4PAN_CLASSIC@012_....jpg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 based on history. The models will never show what the true totals will be until we get much closer to the event and they almost always end up underestimating the true amounts this far out with these coastal storms. Why exactly that is I have no idea. A met could probably answer that for you. Disagree to an extent. We've seen that happen on occasion but we've also seen amounts decrease to zero. You cannot simply take this "history" you speak of and apply it automatically to this. The signal is there for a big storm but in the end it's also possible there could be no storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 based on history. The models will never show what the true totals will be until we get much closer to the event and they almost always end up underestimating the true amounts this far out with these coastal storms. Why exactly that is I have no idea. A met could probably answer that for you. I agree that there isn't much evidence to back up a statement like this, but at least anecdotally this has happened with almost every major storm, and only few have gone the opposite way, and one in particular was Jan 2005 which kept increasing totals beforehand and NE ended up killing it while NYC metro ended up dry slotted and relatively snow starved (I say that tongue in cheek because 15 in aint too shabby) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JERSEYSNOWROB Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Disagree to an extent. We've seen that happen on occasion but we've also seen amounts decrease to zero. You cannot simply take this "history" you speak of and apply it automatically to this. The signal is there for a big storm but in the end it's also possible there could be no storm. hmmm happened alot last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 hmmm happened alot last year. Last year had Strong Nino with a STJ on steriods, which is why we saw tons of QPF.... Every year is different, but I do agree about the possible big storm, they tend to upgrade it... We saw this with the '83 blizzard, '96 blizzard, '03 PD storm, and of course, 2010. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 hmmm happened alot last year. Last year was a Nino this is a Nina. You cannot make blanket statements like this. No two situations are identical. Perhaps this happened a few times but I can probably find just as many times when the storm never panned out or ended up with lower amounts. The statement you are making is that based on a run a week out the amounts should increase. Not much backing IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 alright lets get back on the 0z models, if you want to start a thread on QPF as an event gets closer go for it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JERSEYSNOWROB Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Last year had Strong Nino with a STJ on steriods, which is why we saw tons of QPF.... Every year is different, but I do agree about the possible big storm, they tend to upgrade it... We saw this with the '83 blizzard, '96 blizzard, '03 PD storm, and of course, 2010. Right was just using last year as an example but in most big coastal storms, the qpf almost always seem to increase as we get closer to the event. Further, we'll probably see some models, especially the GFS, lose this storm once again in a couple days, to only bring it back once again later in the week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 0z ens you guessed it typical GFS bias South and east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Perfect position for this time on the Ens. Really a perfect setup for a Bomb. Look for the GFS to lose the storm on one of tomorrows runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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