stormtracker Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Let's try to keep model discussion here. NAM looked tamer compared to its 18z run for the midweek storm. Not sure what the GFS will do beyond Day 4 with the Euro storm. Out to 72 hours now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest someguy Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 108 HRS gfs Shwoing a LOT more southern stream energy DT going into chat room Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 13, 2010 Author Share Posted December 13, 2010 looking at lot more amplified vs 18z so far. Up to 120 hour on NCEP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Sharpen up you stupid shortwave Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ender Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 'tis a fun run... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 13, 2010 Author Share Posted December 13, 2010 Apparently GFS now has an east coast storm folks. 144 starts..coastal low and moving up the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Apparently GFS now has an east coast storm folks. 144 starts..coastal low and moving up the coast Wow, 156 says HOWDY Huff-- Love seeing those VV's over my house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Now we have model support. That's all I was looking for Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 GFS making me nervous, i sorta hoped it would be further east then its showing at this stage but hey least it has it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchel Volk Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 ECMWF and GFS in agreement, it a heads up. Still early but a strong signal with this agreement and pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Apparently GFS now has an east coast storm folks. 144 starts..coastal low and moving up the coast I'm not trying to be a smart arse, but I'd like to hear some reasoning as to why we should trust the gfs 7 days out. Is it just that the pattern is that "easy" for models to hone in on the key players? I think I'll feel better tomorrow afternoon after the gfs drops the storm completely until Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Talk about an upper tropospheric disturbance....it barely even shows up at 500. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 13, 2010 Author Share Posted December 13, 2010 I'm not trying to be a smart arse, but I'd like to hear some reasoning as to why we should trust the gfs 7 days out. Is it just that the pattern is that "easy" for models to hone in on the key players? I think I'll feel better tomorrow afternoon after the gfs drops the storm completely until Thursday. Well, no one is "trusting" anything at this point..but the signal is there because the GFS has come around to wait the Euro was already showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Redmorninglight Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 GFS making me nervous, i sorta hoped it would be further east then its showing at this stage but hey least it has it I know what you mean. I live right on the SNJ coast and expect mixing, but out to 174, GFS keeps it frozen along I95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 wow GFS A LITTLE DIFFERENT THAN 12/18Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Caught onto the 12/19-20 storm the ECMWFpicked back up today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest someguy Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Now we have model support. That's all I was looking for where is my gun? your obstinacy is hard to believe Models do not make it big NE snows JI patterns do Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest someguy Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 I'm not trying to be a smart arse, but I'd like to hear some reasoning as to why we should trust the gfs 7 days out. Is it just that the pattern is that "easy" for models to hone in on the key players? I think I'll feel better tomorrow afternoon after the gfs drops the storm completely until Thursday. dude read the woof thread this is not about 1 model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 I know it's far away, but this solution does make sense as one of the strongest blocks on record is retrograding into Canada at the time. A strong NE moving system overrunning cold air is very common in the pattern. Pieces of the PV are constantly circling the block. The movement of the NAO ridge will determine this storms exact track, but I think it's safe to say the 12-19/20 threat is legit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 where is my gun? anyway classic miller A here, looks like the euro will be king again this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 I know it's far away, but this solution does make sense as one of the strongest blocks on record is retrograding into Canada at the time. A strong NE moving system overrunning cold air is very common in the pattern. The movement of the NAO block will determine the exact track, but I think it's safe to say the 12-19/20 threat is legit. i think that first sentence is sooo important because a lot of times we latch on to a model run's interpretation when in reality the players on the field don't suggest it'll play out that way. I am often guilty of that myself, but it's tough when you follow the weather like this not to be enthused when you see an I-95 snowstorm but now I see the importance of the broader signals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 anyway classic miller A here, looks like the euro will be king again this winter seems to do best in La Nina's, or should I say is more lethal at longer ranges during a NINA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongRanger Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Dec 19... even if the setup is different, tough not to have deja vu Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Euro is off to a great start except for that December 5 storm. I trust it with mecs/hecs. What a great day so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 I know it's far away, but this solution does make sense as one of the strongest blocks on record is retrograding into Canada at the time. A strong NE moving system overrunning cold air is very common in the pattern. Pieces of the PV are constantly circling the block. The movement of the NAO ridge will determine this storms exact track, but I think it's safe to say the 12-19/20 threat is legit. Chuck on board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 I'm not trying to be a smart arse, but I'd like to hear some reasoning as to why we should trust the gfs 7 days out. Is it just that the pattern is that "easy" for models to hone in on the key players? I think I'll feel better tomorrow afternoon after the gfs drops the storm completely until Thursday. http://1664596.sites.myregisteredsite.com/meteorology/Thisweekinwx/archive/DEC12/dec12.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ridingtime Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 GFS on board, after King Euro saw it first. What more can you ask for? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 anyone have the link to the daily super ensembles that were darn good last year before the FEB storms? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptb127 Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 The question is.. what if Dr. No makes a comeback tonight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 WOOF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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