December 2011 General Discussion/Obs Part 2

[snowstormcanuck]

18z GFS pretty active with several storms in the next 10 days.

I'm probably repeating myself, but I'd trade all of those threats for a fundamental pattern change just after Christmas. 18z GFS looks putrid post truncation. +10 850 temps into the northern Plains on NYE? lolz.

[Chicago WX]

I'm probably repeating myself, but I'd trade all of those threats for a fundamental pattern change just after Christmas. 18z GFS looks putrid post truncation. +10 850 temps into the northern Plains on NYE? lolz.

Last year's NYE ate all of my beautiful snow cover.

At least there won't be anything to melt if another NYE torch happens...

[wisconsinwx]

Looks like some flurries or very light snow from Moneyman to Mt. Warminista. Dusting at best, but when you're bored, any frozen precip gets your attention.

[BeastFromTheEast]

Looks like some flurries or very light snow from Moneyman to Mt. Warminista. Dusting at best, but when you're bored, any frozen precip gets your attention.

[BeauDodson]

I don't ever recall seeing the models in such chaos/meltdown for this region. It seems like every run has a new surprise. An example being the GFS from yesterday or even this morning compared with this afternoon - we went from possible snow on Christmas Eve to thunderstorms.

Seems like the EC and GFS have been in a tug of war to see who can perform worse this winter.

EC has its moments - still my favorite pick when push comes to shove - but you have to watch every run - watch and follow every trend like a hawk.

We have picked up over 6 inches of rain this month alone - on top of 10-11" last month. Wettest year since record keeping in our region.

Incredibly active pattern on the models right on through the end of the month - one vort after another ejecting out of the southwest. If this keeps up in Jan and Feb then it will be interesting to see who gets slammed with a significant ice storm or two.

Defin not a boring weather pattern.

[michsnowfreak]

I say do it. It'll be hilarious to look back at how worried we were after the whole region gets 70-100" in JFM.

I say do it anyway for the sake of interest. It would be interesting to compile a list of the regions least snowy and most snowy winter on record, and Tim does such a fantastic job organizing, number crunching, etc. To even talk about setting a snow futility record in mid-December is ridiculous though, I dont care if it was the warmest December on record for the entire midwest (which this is not).

[michsnowfreak]

I swear you've been the one being the silliest about all this...

Actually no hes being one of the most realistic. I see it every year on these boards. Doom and gloom posts, winter cancel posts, etc, and then when winter hits, its all forgotten, and each year Ive sworn I was going to bookmark some of the worried/pessimistic posts and bump when the going got good, but i never did. Of course this year its way worse than its ever been on here because we truly ARE in a region wide rotten winter pattern (the previous years griping was mostly due to unrealistic expectations not so much a bad pattern). But it amazes, AMAZES me that so many actually honestly feel that winter is not going to come and the pattern is never going to break. I would suggest to anyone to look at their local climate data of past years and see how many times a mild December was followed by a very cold Jan or Jan/Feb, but it would simply fall on deaf ear. You are very new to northern winters, I understand that.....and there is no denying snowfall is running below average for most..but seriously, its mid-December. Dont know what else to say.

[dmc76]

Actually no hes being one of the most realistic. I see it every year on these boards. Doom and gloom posts, winter cancel posts, etc, and then when winter hits, its all forgotten, and each year Ive sworn I was going to bookmark some of the worried/pessimistic posts and bump when the going got good, but i never did. Of course this year its way worse than its ever been on here because we truly ARE in a region wide rotten winter pattern (the previous years griping was mostly due to unrealistic expectations not so much a bad pattern). But it amazes, AMAZES me that so many actually honestly feel that winter is not going to come and the pattern is never going to break. I would suggest to anyone to look at their local climate data of past years and see how many times a mild December was followed by a very cold Jan or Jan/Feb, but it would simply fall on deaf ear. You are very new to northern winters, I understand that.....and there is no denying snowfall is running below average for most..but seriously, its mid-December. Dont know what else to say.

I like Sparty seems like a good guy but...actually he was one of the first to start the "winter cancel theme" in early Nov.

[Geos]

If I recall correctly it was SSW events was one of the major player to bailed out 06-07 for some (though MBY it just got cold & I missed all the snow to my south in Feb).

If is possible SSW events could do the same this year (per LC and some others).

Funny thing is Dec 2011 and Dec 2006 so far are 'acting' the same IMBY with cooler with minor bouts of snow in the first 1/3 then mild with rain in the middle 1/3rd and now the last 1/3 is looking similar in the models but that 'can' & hopefully will change.

I was reading the SSW thread on the main board earlier - interesting stuff. Winter of 2006-2007 compared to IMBY this year is somewhat different. Here it went from a warm November to a foot of snow on Dec. 1, then 9 days of cold and warmth into mid January. Then things got snowy and bitterly cold in February. -9.6° below normal and 20" of snow for KUGN. Winters do and can change around!

[mnweather]

22 out now, up to 8" of snow reported near my area from yesterdays system.

[michsnowfreak]

I like Sparty seems like a good guy but...actually he was the first to start the "winter cancel theme" in early Nov.

Like i said, I see it every year though....its way, way, WAY too early for anything other than "cold December cancel". Hell, in southern MI snowfall is right around normal to date, and while December is running warmer than normal, its certainly no where near the warmest. I noticed someone, I think you, posted somewhere "a lot of winter is gone already", I think in response to the "its not even winter yet" posts. Do you know how much of the snow season statistically is gone here? DTW should be at 5.4" thru today, they are at 5.1". This means that statistically just 5.4" of the seasons 42.7" should have fallen so far (or 12.6%, with 87.4% to go). A lot of winter is gone? Not even close!

I also like how so many are ready to crown whoever had the most "unders" for the snowfall contest as the winner (Ill say it again, in mid-December). The only ones who are REALLY fighting an uphill battle now are the ones in the far north (northern MN/WI/MI/Ontario) or in the heart of the snowbelt. To anyone south of I-80, one or two good snowstorms can make it an above normal winter, and to those who not yet seen 1 inch in Milwaukee or Chicago? So what, they are 4" (ORD) to 6" (MKE) below normal to date. Do you know how easy it is to make up a few inches of snow? Even if a persistent period of cold never makes itself present this winter (very, very unlikely), the active pattern seems to be going nowhere, which means even in a mild pattern, its still cold enough plenty of the time for snowstorms. And as I seem to recall, the mantra of many here (myself excluded) is that cold/snowcover are boring, just bring active weather.

Im sticking to my guns about above average snowfall for many, maybe not as snowy as recent winters, but still above average. Any changes to these thoughts will wait until February 1st at the earliest, because Im way too familiar with how this regions climate works.

[michsnowfreak]

I was reading the SSW thread on the main board earlier - interesting stuff. Winter of 2006-2007 compared to IMBY this year is somewhat different. Here it went from a warm November to a foot of snow on Dec. 1, then 9 days of cold and warmth into mid January. Then things got snowy and bitterly cold in February. -9.6° below normal and 20" of snow for KUGN. Winters do and can change around!

2006-07 was insane here. Record earliest measurable snowfall for Detroit with 0.2" on Oct 12th, then 0.1" on Nov 2nd, then a few inches of snow the first few days of December followed by a period (Dec 9-Jan 7) with NO SNOW AT ALL! Very, very mild, in fact MUCH milder than this December, and basically winter never set in til mid-January. February featured constant snowcover and some brutally cold days.

[snowstormcanuck]

I don't ever recall seeing the models in such chaos/meltdown for this region. It seems like every run has a new surprise. An example being the GFS from yesterday or even this morning compared with this afternoon - we went from possible snow on Christmas Eve to thunderstorms.

Seems like the EC and GFS have been in a tug of war to see who can perform worse this winter.

EC has its moments - still my favorite pick when push comes to shove - but you have to watch every run - watch and follow every trend like a hawk.

We have picked up over 6 inches of rain this month alone - on top of 10-11" last month. Wettest year since record keeping in our region.

Incredibly active pattern on the models right on through the end of the month - one vort after another ejecting out of the southwest. If this keeps up in Jan and Feb then it will be interesting to see who gets slammed with a significant ice storm or two.

Defin not a boring weather pattern.

Nice to hear from you Beau! You should post a lot lot more.

[Chicago WX]

Might as well have a 2006-07 repeat. I'm down.

[snowstormcanuck]

Actually no hes being one of the most realistic. I see it every year on these boards. Doom and gloom posts, winter cancel posts, etc, and then when winter hits, its all forgotten, and each year Ive sworn I was going to bookmark some of the worried/pessimistic posts and bump when the going got good, but i never did. Of course this year its way worse than its ever been on here because we truly ARE in a region wide rotten winter pattern (the previous years griping was mostly due to unrealistic expectations not so much a bad pattern). But it amazes, AMAZES me that so many actually honestly feel that winter is not going to come and the pattern is never going to break. I would suggest to anyone to look at their local climate data of past years and see how many times a mild December was followed by a very cold Jan or Jan/Feb, but it would simply fall on deaf ear. You are very new to northern winters, I understand that.....and there is no denying snowfall is running below average for most..but seriously, its mid-December. Dont know what else to say.

Sparty and yourself have made assertions like these a couple of times now. I still haven't seen much (or any) evidence of it though. It's mostly lamenting the pattern that we're in, which is 100% acceptable and understandable. Nobody is saying winter is never going to come.

[snowstormcanuck]

I have been under the impression that all the major Toronto observation locales had received some accumulating snow to date. However, upon checking the downtown Toronto site, they are incredibly still at a T of snow for the season. The latest downtown Toronto has ever gone without accumulating snow was December 16, back in 1998. If 0.2cm (0.1") isn't recorded by 7am Saturday, that record will tumble.

Horrifically bad start for them.

[Chicago WX]

Sparty and yourself have made assertions like these a couple of times now. I still haven't seen much (or any) evidence of it though. It's mostly lamenting the pattern that we're in, which is 100% acceptable and understandable. Nobody is saying winter is never going to come.

I haven't seen it either. I think it's reading between the lines really. I get that people are frustrated with the start to winter, but I also think this group has taken pretty well...so far. Of course all bets are off if this persists through January (not saying I think it does, but IF it does). No one has jumped off a bridge yet. At least not that I've seen here.

[Chicago Storm]

Sparty and yourself have made assertions like these a couple of times now. I still haven't seen much (or any) evidence of it though. It's mostly lamenting the pattern that we're in, which is 100% acceptable and understandable. Nobody is saying winter is never going to come.

it's very, very, VERY early.

[Powerball]

Might as well have a 2006-07 repeat. I'm down.

2006-2007 had the epic lake effect snow.

This season so far has not.

[snowstormcanuck]

I haven't seen it either. I think it's reading between the lines really. I get that people are frustrated with the start to winter, but I also think this group has taken pretty well...so far. Of course all bets are off if this persists through January (not saying I think it does, but IF it does). No one has jumped off a bridge yet. At least not that I've seen here.

Yeah I agree. And even the one or two who maybe pushes the envelope a bit (Ottawa Blizzard comes to mind), it doesn't really bother me, so long as it doesn't become trolling. I know venting can be cathartic.

[snowstormcanuck]

it's very, very, VERY early.

If only optimism like that could be learned.

[Chicago WX]

2006-2007 had the epic lake effect snow.

This season so far has not.

Yeah, well I'm thinking down the line. You know, February 2007. Whoosh.

[Chicago WX]

Yeah I agree. And even the one or two who maybe pushes the envelope a bit (Ottawa Blizzard comes to mind), it doesn't really bother me, so long as it doesn't become trolling. I know venting can be cathartic.

Venting is fine in my back...to a point of course. Trolling...yeah, we're going to be getting a lot more of that in the near future me thinks. Actually it's probably already starting...

[Powerball]

I will never forget that one. Every freaking model had a 980mb low at 12z by the 60hr. I mean everyone of them. The GFS had been going nuts for runs, but the foreign models held out a bit. Then on that 12z run, all of them blew up a monster whipping I-75 with heavy snowfall.

Then by the 00z run, it was falling apart. By the following 12z run the next day, it was gone and even weaker than what the foreign runs had shown earlier, a mere pathetic wave. I still can't get over that one. How the models could blow it inside 84hrs like that. I used to have a picture of it, but I lost it unfortunately. It was like taking it up the backside without the benefit of a reach around(at least the February 2009 bust didn't wait that long).

In that type of weak pj, I don't get hyped until the snow hits the ground, a lesson learned.

Hmmm, it can't be much worse than our sub-970mb Buffalo triple phaser from a couple seasons ago (2008-2009?).

[dmc76]

Like i said, I see it every year though....its way, way, WAY too early for anything other than "cold December cancel". Hell, in southern MI snowfall is right around normal to date, and while December is running warmer than normal, its certainly no where near the warmest. I noticed someone, I think you, posted somewhere "a lot of winter is gone already", I think in response to the "its not even winter yet" posts. Do you know how much of the snow season statistically is gone here? DTW should be at 5.4" thru today, they are at 5.1". This means that statistically just 5.4" of the seasons 42.7" should have fallen so far (or 12.6%, with 87.4% to go). A lot of winter is gone? Not even close!

I also like how so many are ready to crown whoever had the most "unders" for the snowfall contest as the winner (Ill say it again, in mid-December). The only ones who are REALLY fighting an uphill battle now are the ones in the far north (northern MN/WI/MI/Ontario) or in the heart of the snowbelt. To anyone south of I-80, one or two good snowstorms can make it an above normal winter, and to those who not yet seen 1 inch in Milwaukee or Chicago? So what, they are 4" (ORD) to 6" (MKE) below normal to date. Do you know how easy it is to make up a few inches of snow? Even if a persistent period of cold never makes itself present this winter (very, very unlikely), the active pattern seems to be going nowhere, which means even in a mild pattern, its still cold enough plenty of the time for snowstorms. And as I seem to recall, the mantra of many here (myself excluded) is that cold/snowcover are boring, just bring active weather.

Im sticking to my guns about above average snowfall for many, maybe not as snowy as recent winters, but still above average. Any changes to these thoughts will wait until February 1st at the earliest, because Im way too familiar with how this regions climate works.

I agree I see it every year as well with the winter cancel garbage. You cannot deny the fact that business in parts of MI, WI, ONT and MN are hurting from this and yes at least a quarter of the season is gone... yes I said it! go tell business owners up in the north woods that rely on snowfall that its not winter yet! lol. I never used DTW as an example so stop bring that up... I actually stated that we were doing decent at this point so chances of hitting average was pretty decent. A similar season of 2006/2007 We were well below normal. So saying that 70-75% of the MW will be below average is not that outrages. Stop pretending that this is normal.

[snowstormcanuck]

Hmmm, it can't be much worse than our sub-970mb Buffalo triple phaser from a couple seasons ago (2008-2009?).

Feb 2009. As much as the fizzling of that one sucked, the Christmas 2006 was probably a little worse because:

a) It was 2-2.5 days out when it evaporated, vs. 4-5 days when the crazy uncle ukie bomb of 2009 did.

2) Dec 2006 was so god-awful that the Christmas storm was our salvation. When it didn't come to fruition, it was such a tremendous kick in the balls. The 2009 non-bomb followed Dec 2008 and Jan 2009, two very snowy months. I think that muted the disappointment somewhat. Although if most knew winter would end right then and there in early Feb 2009, we may have been more vocal in our griping.

[weatherpsycho]

It amazes me how a few people venting bothers the crap out of some people lol. Let them vent. Stop being so serious! It's a forum and we are here to have fun. right now the weather sucks and some good 'venting' comments are worth a good laugh.

[turtlehurricane]

Actually no hes being one of the most realistic. I see it every year on these boards. Doom and gloom posts, winter cancel posts, etc, and then when winter hits, its all forgotten, and each year Ive sworn I was going to bookmark some of the worried/pessimistic posts and bump when the going got good, but i never did. Of course this year its way worse than its ever been on here because we truly ARE in a region wide rotten winter pattern (the previous years griping was mostly due to unrealistic expectations not so much a bad pattern). But it amazes, AMAZES me that so many actually honestly feel that winter is not going to come and the pattern is never going to break. I would suggest to anyone to look at their local climate data of past years and see how many times a mild December was followed by a very cold Jan or Jan/Feb, but it would simply fall on deaf ear. You are very new to northern winters, I understand that.....and there is no denying snowfall is running below average for most..but seriously, its mid-December. Dont know what else to say.

My philosophy is just enjoy the weather, whatever it may be. I like snowstorms for sure, but if we only got a couple this year I'd be happy with that. I don't see why it's so important to get the most snow every year.

Winter is definitely here regardless of the snow, the temperature just dropped from 52 °F to 31 °F today, and may hit the teens by sunrise.

[Ottawa Blizzard]

Allow me just one more tweet from JB. lol

BigJoeBastardi Joe Bastardi

Wait'll you get a load of the motherlode of arctic air that shows up in western Canada in Jan. Warmingistas, get ready to make excuses

[TugHillMatt]

Like i said, I see it every year though....its way, way, WAY too early for anything other than "cold December cancel". Hell, in southern MI snowfall is right around normal to date, and while December is running warmer than normal, its certainly no where near the warmest. I noticed someone, I think you, posted somewhere "a lot of winter is gone already", I think in response to the "its not even winter yet" posts. Do you know how much of the snow season statistically is gone here? DTW should be at 5.4" thru today, they are at 5.1". This means that statistically just 5.4" of the seasons 42.7" should have fallen so far (or 12.6%, with 87.4% to go). A lot of winter is gone? Not even close!

I also like how so many are ready to crown whoever had the most "unders" for the snowfall contest as the winner (Ill say it again, in mid-December). The only ones who are REALLY fighting an uphill battle now are the ones in the far north (northern MN/WI/MI/Ontario) or in the heart of the snowbelt. To anyone south of I-80, one or two good snowstorms can make it an above normal winter, and to those who not yet seen 1 inch in Milwaukee or Chicago? So what, they are 4" (ORD) to 6" (MKE) below normal to date. Do you know how easy it is to make up a few inches of snow? Even if a persistent period of cold never makes itself present this winter (very, very unlikely), the active pattern seems to be going nowhere, which means even in a mild pattern, its still cold enough plenty of the time for snowstorms. And as I seem to recall, the mantra of many here (myself excluded) is that cold/snowcover are boring, just bring active weather.

Im sticking to my guns about above average snowfall for many, maybe not as snowy as recent winters, but still above average. Any changes to these thoughts will wait until February 1st at the earliest, because Im way too familiar with how this regions climate works.

While I often enjoy and respect what you write, I have to disagree with you on some of your points. It seems to me that you're somewhat unrealistically positive about the weather pattrens to come sometimes. In reality, it may just be a crappy winter coming. Of course there's some anxiety about the weather. Like you said, places in northern michigan and the snowbelts are hurting and getting frustrated...especially when places like Muskegon on up through Traverse City, Cadillac, and Gaylord highly rely on winter sports enthusiasts to boost our economy. No snow = no business....still waiting upon our first inch of snow here...ouch. Hopefully it comes on Saturday!