December 2011 General Discussion/Obs Part 2

[an uncanny otter]

[wisconsinwx]

A lot of unusual smilies will be getting a workout this winter. I'll do another:

[daddylonglegs]

WiWx...

Workout? Be careful

[gosaints]

Is the 12z Euro showing hope at 180??

[Geos]

Heartbreaking to see. Luckily is just a prediction and not set in stone...

Where's the reset button for winter!?

[on_wx]

20mm(0.79") so far today in Waterloo... overachieved again.

[hawkeye_wx]

Is the 12z Euro showing hope at 180??

Nope. It just breaks off yet another piece of energy into the southwest while the northern stream continues its blah wnw flow.

[cyclone77]

[snowstormcanuck]

That CPC forecast is deflating, but I'll throw in two caveats:

1. They're often wrong. Just an anecdotal observation, no evidence to back that up.

2. I'm wondering if that map is skewed because the first week to 10 days of the month will feature such strong positive anomalies (per GGEM/GFS ensembles posted in this thread). I can't image we'll still be in this uber mild pattern through the bulk of January. Even 99-00 and 06-07 finally saw a return to seasonable conditions by the middle of January.

[Hoosier]

That CPC forecast is deflating, but I'll throw in two caveats:

1. They're often wrong. Just an anecdotal observation, no evidence to back that up.

2. I'm wondering if that map is skewed because the first week to 10 days of the month will feature such strong positive anomalies (per GGEM/GFS ensembles posted in this thread). I can't image we'll still be in this uber mild pattern through the bulk of January. Even 99-00 and 06-07 finally saw a return to seasonable conditions by the middle of January.

I've never been a big fan of those maps. Just using my location...although there is a heightened chance of above average temperatures, the probability is still less than 50%. I think there will be a more sustained pattern reversal in January but the timing and magnitude will be critical in determining how the month averages.

[SpartyOn]

It (pattern) just has to change. This would be remarkable if this rough patch hangs on for more than a couple of weeks. Have not looked at the AO recently but I'm guessing it's shat. Someone brought up 2006.. That's s a good comparison.

[Baum]

How have the European monthlies been doing this year? Read that this mornings monthlies continue to show little blocking and a continuation of the existing pattern which does not bode well for sustained cold in mid-west and east.

[snowstormcanuck]

2006 was warmer, el nino driven patterns.

Yeah, -AO/-NAO arrived in January 2007 to save us from that raging pacific firehose. I know I've heard blocking is correlated to +ENSO episodes, so I don't think -NAO is going to bail us out this time. We're going to need more help from the -EPO/+PNA this time.

The key similarities between Dec 2011 and Dec 2006 is that they both suck, even though why they suck is a little different.

[SpartyOn]

Yeah, -AO/-NAO arrived in January 2007 to save us from that raging pacific firehose. I know I've heard blocking is correlated to +ENSO episodes, so I don't think -NAO is going to bail us out this time. We're going to need more help from the -EPO/+PNA this time.

I think that was the same year that water town NY got blasted with 100 inches in 2 weeks

The key similarities between Dec 2011 and Dec 2006 is that they both suck, even though why they suck is a little different.

Correct me if I'm wrong but didn't Feb 2007 feature a nasty cold snap. I remember some sub zero mornings and plenty of single digit days

[snowstormcanuck]

Correct me if I'm wrong but didn't Feb 2007 feature a nasty cold snap. I remember some sub zero mornings and plenty of single digit days

Sounds about right. Feb 2007 was by far the most wintry month of that winter.

[weatherpsycho]

Yeah, -AO/-NAO arrived in January 2007 to save us from that raging pacific firehose. I know I've heard blocking is correlated to +ENSO episodes, so I don't think -NAO is going to bail us out this time. We're going to need more help from the -EPO/+PNA this time.

The key similarities between Dec 2011 and Dec 2006 is that they both suck, even though why they suck is a little different.

If I recall correctly it was SSW events was one of the major player to bailed out 06-07 for some (though MBY it just got cold & I missed all the snow to my south in Feb).

If is possible SSW events could do the same this year (per LC and some others).

Funny thing is Dec 2011 and Dec 2006 so far are 'acting' the same IMBY with cooler with minor bouts of snow in the first 1/3 then mild with rain in the middle 1/3rd and now the last 1/3 is looking similar in the models but that 'can' & hopefully will change.

[dmc76]

Correct me if I'm wrong but didn't Feb 2007 feature a nasty cold snap. I remember some sub zero mornings and plenty of single digit days

2006/07 was the Two faced winter....>

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/Image/dtx/winterspringrev2007.pdf

[Hoar_Frost]

December is now half over. I manage the CO-OP station on the Northern Illinois University campus in DeKalb, so I have access to its snowfall records. So far this month, there has been 0.5" (from two events). This is the least snow of any December through the 15th since 2001; between 01 and 15 December 2001, there was no snowfall recorded. Most days had maximum temperatures in the 40's and 50's (and even 60's) during that period. (For reference, Christmas was technically white that year, with a scant 1" snow depth recorded at the 0700 observation. The month ended with 2.7", about 30% of normal. The following January had 11.8", about 110% of normal. February had 2.3", about one-third of normal. March had 9.1", about twice normal. April had 2.3", about twice normal. Seasonal total: 30.2", which is a little below normal. Note that a March snowstorm greatly inflates this seasonal total.)

[hm8]

lol at whoever tagged this thread "cromartie"

[Chicago WX]

I am concerned about my winter forecast the longer this warmer than average regime hangs on.

Time to circle the wagons. I'd like a do over for Jan and Feb.

[snowstormcanuck]

Please lock in the light WAA induced snows the GFS is painting in at 63.

[Snowstorms]

I'd be so happy if we can pull of a Jan 99 sometime this Winter lol. I just want atleast two decent snowstorms above 8".

Certanily the models do indicate some weak Stratospheric Warming about 1-2 weeks from now which maybe related to the AAM wave but at this point I dont see any bring drop off in the AO thru atleast early January.

A decent Pacific would help alot like it did back in 93-94 nd Dec 89. We need to develop a -EPO/Weak +PNA in the Pacific for any cold anomalies to move Eastward. I mean WCanada isnt even that cold, how sad.

Total script flip from last year i swear....how cruel.

[turtlehurricane]

Yeah, definitely feels a lot cooler than it did last night. Already dropped 20 degrees since midnight. Getting some pretty strong northwest winds too. The little sleet shower is over with. Got our quota of wintry precip for the week.

The NW winds are really stirring up Lake Mendota. Could make for some ice sculptures by the shore line in the morning. The freeze line is still hung up just north of here, 87 hours above freezing now.

[Hoosier]

Time to circle the wagons. I'd like a do over for Jan and Feb.

I'm going to wait until the end of the month before possibly revising. I'd like to see some signs of change at that point. If things still look bad then I'll probably have to make some changes especially with temps. Seasonal outlooks are tough business even when you sorta know what you're doing which is arguable in my case. Everyone weights things differently and certain assumptions are made. Things like the AO/NAO are difficult if not impossible to predict more than a couple weeks out. I assumed less blocking than last year but it's been awful so far.

[snowstormcanuck]

I'd be so happy if we can pull of a Jan 99 sometime this Winter lol. I just want atleast two decent snowstorms above 8".

Certanily the models do indicate some weak Stratospheric Warming about 1-2 weeks from now which maybe related to the AAM wave but at this point I dont see any bring drop off in the AO thru atleast early January.

A decent Pacific would help alot like it did back in 93-94 nd Dec 89. We need to develop a -EPO/Weak +PNA in the Pacific for any cold anomalies to move Eastward. I mean WCanada isnt even that cold, how sad.

Total script flip from last year i swear....how cruel.

18z GFS tthrows us a couple of bones in the days leading up to Christmas. I'm not too excited about the potential for snow, but it's at least something to track. I hate those runs of the GFS that pop up every once in a while that has a dry NW flow through the 16 day period.

[Snowstorms]

18z GFS tthrows us a couple of bones in the days leading up to Christmas. I'm not too excited about the potential for snow, but it's at least something to track. I hate those runs of the GFS that pop up every once in a while that has a dry NW flow through the 16 day period.

And at the same time, all the decent cold anomalies are locked up in FAR Northern Canada towards NWT, Nunvaut.

I'm sure many across the West who love snow and cold hate this pattern as well despite that 1-2 week cold outbreak in November.

Hey atleast were getting storms this year lol.

I'll give it another 3 weeks. If the AO/NAO/PNA/EPO dont change there act then I'm gona give up and hang low for the rest of Winter though there can be surprises in between lol.

[Chicago WX]

I'm going to wait until the end of the month before possibly revising. I'd like to see some signs of change at that point. If things still look bad then I'll probably have to make some changes especially with temps. Seasonal outlooks are tough business even when you sorta know what you're doing which is arguable in my case. Everyone weights things differently and certain assumptions are made. Things like the AO/NAO are difficult if not impossible to predict more than a couple weeks out. I assumed less blocking than last year but it's been awful so far.

I have no skill in doing it and really just put one out for LAF for fun. But I do try to use some reasoning/evidence as to why I came up with what I did. I guess I lucked out and got the first part right (December), but as of now I have Jan and Feb colder than average. I can't say I'm too enthused about either of those calls at the moment, but knee jerk reactions are also not the best route sometimes. Regardless, the lack of meaningful cold air in most of Canada at the moment, and in the extended, make me feel pretty bad about my Jan forecast. I'd probably move it up to "around average" at this point. February...no idea. Could be such a thing that if we get a pattern change to colder, it may not reflect well in the monthly averages...in other words it could be cold for the last week of January through the first two weeks of February, with warm on both sides. Eh, we'll see.

[Ottawa Blizzard]

Well, if the latest euro is right, JB is totally out to lunch with his theory that the current stratopsheric warming couldl ead to a mjor flip. Sure the warming may be happening, but it won't do a thing for us with a regard to cold weather. 1984-85 my arse. Bust of a winter. Winter 1877-78/ 1889-90 here we come. Seriously though this has the potential to be quite a historic winter warmth wise if the Euro is right. Might not be what we all want, but historic nonetheless. I still hold open the possibility of change, but wouldn't want to bet on it.

[Thundersnow12]

18z GFS pretty active with several storms in the next 10 days.

[snowstormcanuck]

Well, if the latest euro is right, JB is totally out to lunch with his theory that the current stratopsheric warming couldl ead to a mjor flip. Sure the warming may be happening, but it won't do a thing for us with a regard to cold weather. 1984-85 my arse. Bust of a winter. Winter 1877-78/ 1889-90 here we come. Seriously though this has the potential to be quite a historic winter warmth wise if the Euro is right. Might not be what we all want, but historic nonetheless. I still hold open the possibility of change, but wouldn't want to bet on it.

At least Ottawa's not doing much better. It'd suck big time for you if we had a super tight gradient pattern with Ottawa getting buried while TO bakes.