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December 2011 General Discussion/Obs Part 2


Chicago Storm

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Now up to 58 here. The ol early morning high.

55F here. Made it to 54F before midnight.

Record high at Detroit on 12/14 was 65F set in 1975 (4 weeks later, in Jan 1976, we had record lows -18F).

Todays (12/15) record high at Detroit was 61F set in 1933 (2 months later, in Feb 1934, we were seeing record lows of -11F).

The record high tomorrow (12/16) is 65F set in 1984. (4 weeks later we were seeing record lows of -15F).

whistle.gif

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That doesnt sound right at all. You were probably seeing winter buds. It was a mild Fall but no way are trees getting spring buds. For that to happen (and it has on rare occasion, see early Jan 2007 in southern New England or Jan 1890 or Jan 1932 right here in southern MI)...it needs to be way warmer for way longer than it has been in the Sarnia area in November.

Yeah those are winter buds. I have them on my maple trees right now. Trees send out the spring buds once the daylight hours grow longer, not now!

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Amarillo, TX; Memphis, TN; Denver, CO (4 storms of significance); New York; Philadelphia; Kansas City: all these cities have seen a significant winter storm for their standards (maybe not NY, though), and have seen at least an inch or so more of snow than Chicago and Milwaukee, two of the favored locations by many/most of the outlooks this winter, not to mention already favored over most of the above mentioned locations based on snowfall average. What a farce it is to even publish winter outlooks without a disclaimer that all it is is an educated guess at best. What does the overall forecasted pattern even matter if teleconnections that cannot be predicted more than a week in advance override it?

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New daily rainfall record for Chicago on Wednesday...

RECORD EVENT REPORT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL

102 AM CST THU DEC 15 2011

..RECORD DAILY MAXIMUM RAINFALL SET AT CHICAGO-OHARE AIRPORT

A RECORD RAINFALL OF 1.43 INCHES WAS SET AT CHICAGO-OHARE AIRPORT

ON TUESDAY DECEMBER 14TH 2011. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 0.99

INCHES FIRST SET IN 1909 AND THEN TIED IN 1975.

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55/54 per 3 am ob in December. I swear I was out shopping tonight and the rain actually felt modestly warm... I mean its unbelievable that it is 55 degrees at 3am in December.

Hell its in the 50s almost to Alpena, that is absurd.

Yeah I agree...this is absurd! It's 48ºF here in Gaylord right now at 430 am! That's hard to do even in the worst or most pronounced January thaws. Hoping for some sneaky lake enhanced snow this evening as the colder air finally arrives.

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Just think about this.... Everyday that goes by gets us 1 day closer to the start of next winter. Winter where I live starts around Nov 20th and ends around March 15th. So far thats 1/4th of winter gone... with one 6 inch storm that melted in a couple days.

My major beef is northern Michigan. I ride my snowmobile up there in quick 3 hour trips planned weekly... Trips to northern Michigan this years (0). Gaylord is 25 inches below normal and hasnt had a single day with more then 2 inches on the ground.

I live in the Keweenaw and it sucks here to. Only have a couple inches here in Hancock. The trails are unrideable. It rained all day yesterday. We won't even have a good base on the trail this year. When the pattern does change everyone will be streaming up here to ride on it not giving the groomers time to pan the trails real good. I have been putting off forking out $45 for a trail permit. Suppose to get a few inches of snow tonight, but it is no use when it keeps warming up into the 40's with full sun. It got up to 54 degrees Sunday.

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0z EURO ensemble mean at D10 does not look very promising. There's a little bit of cold air seeping into the lakes (850s of -10 or so) but its transient in nature. GOA trough is reloading and it looks like we'd be blasted with another shot of Pacific air beyond the period.

Only half way through the month, but I'm going to go ahead and suggest there isn't much hope through 01/01/12. Still seeing if I can get my 0.1" so Dec 11 doesn't end up being worse than Dec 06.

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0z EURO ensemble mean at D10 does not look very promising. There's a little bit of cold air seeping into the lakes (850s of -10 or so) but its transient in nature. GOA trough is reloading and it looks like we'd be blasted with another shot of Pacific air beyond the period.

Only half way through the month, but I'm going to go ahead and suggest there isn't much hope through 01/01/12. Still seeing if I can get my 0.1" so Dec 11 doesn't end up being worse than Dec 06.

Yeah it's going in the wrong direction, but turning things around will take time. Assuming/hoping it does change...

It's a bit early to be talking this nonsense I suppose, but maybe I should start a thread for the least snowiest winters for every site. You know, reverse psychology/jinx/etc. biggrin.png

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Yeah it's going in the wrong direction, but turning things around will take time. Assuming/hoping it does change...

It's a bit early to be talking this nonsense I suppose, but maybe I should start a thread for the least snowiest winters for every site. You know, reverse psychology/jinx/etc. biggrin.png

Whoever went under for the snowfall contest should be feeling pretty good at this time..thumbsupsmileyanim.gif

Did have about half dozen flashes of lightning last night around 10pm.. Wife even commented, isn't weird to be having a thunderstorm in the middle of December. laugh.png

Just saw the latest observation @ LAF 59/58. :lmao:

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Whoever went under for the snowfall contest should be feeling pretty good at this time..thumbsupsmileyanim.gif

Did have about half dozen flashes of lightning last night around 10pm.. Wife even commented, isn't weird to be having a thunderstorm in the middle of December. laugh.png

Just saw the latest observation @ LAF 59/58. lmaosmiley.gif

These three look the best right now. Of course, even they may have been too optimistic.

goobagooba and Trent picked under for 12 of the 20 sites

BowMeHunter picked under for 11 of the 20 sites

Even in the middle of December, LAF's dewpoint readings don't fail to "overachieve". laugh.png

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The 84 torch was crazy for Christmas. Grilling and even Santa was wearing shorts that night.

1984's torch was post Christmas day at ORD, 69º on the 28th and 63º on the 29th...both record highs.

1982 was the torchiest Christmas day on record for Chicago.

And then fast forward a year later, the arctic hounds were released.

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Yeah it's going in the wrong direction, but turning things around will take time. Assuming/hoping it does change...

It's a bit early to be talking this nonsense I suppose, but maybe I should start a thread for the least snowiest winters for every site. You know, reverse psychology/jinx/etc. biggrin.png

I say do it. It'll be hilarious to look back at how worried we were after the whole region gets 70-100" in JFM.

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I say do it. It'll be hilarious to look back at how worried we were after the whole region gets 70-100" in JFM.

Heh, let's hope so.

I'll probably hold off until mid January for the list. At that point if we're still in the same pattern, well...it's full steam ahead disaster time. laugh.png

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