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December 2011 General Discussion/Obs Part 2


Chicago Storm

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Funny, both the 12z Euro and 12z GEM show a kind of GLC from the southern stream heading NE early next week, yet all the AFDs are discounting the solutions, not even introducing pops. Is this perhaps a situation of expecting persistence of a boring pattern, despite some signs pointing otherwise?

Yeah Euro has a pretty nice system.. Lets hope and see if other models start to show it the next couple of days too. :snowing:

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Funny, both the 12z Euro and 12z GEM show a kind of GLC from the southern stream heading NE early next week, yet all the AFDs are discounting the solutions, not even introducing pops. Is this perhaps a situation of expecting persistence of a boring pattern, despite some signs pointing otherwise?

The GEM is mostly rain and the Euro has snow on the backside around here but the BL temps are iffy.

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Funny, both the 12z Euro and 12z GEM show a kind of GLC from the southern stream heading NE early next week, yet all the AFDs are discounting the solutions, not even introducing pops. Is this perhaps a situation of expecting persistence of a boring pattern, despite some signs pointing otherwise?

The mets down this way are discounting it also, saying the models are too amplified and too fast. For now, they are biting of the GFS's weak , suppressed piece of crap. The way the pattern has been, who's to say they are wrong for holding off on adding pops to their forecast? I hope they are wrong though.

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It's preferable right now. I did see a mention in another sub-forum that the Euro weeklies looked "good" for weeks 2 and 3. Yawn.

Week 3 YES but week 2? While week 2 may not be as warm as it has been the problem is the ridge is just west of us and ala nw flow type pattern which screams boring to me.

Week 3 does look good. weak se ridge with below normal temps running across the GL/Northern parts of the country especially from the Lakes back to the west across the N.Plains to the PAC NW. near normal down your way/along i70 with the above normal stuff along and south of the river to the Mid Atlantic.

More importantly is Canada progressivly turns colder so that by week 4 it is pretty cold along and north of the border into Canada.

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Week 3 YES but week 2? While week 2 may not be as warm as it has been the problem is the ridge is just west of us and ala nw flow type pattern.

Week 3 does look good. weak se ridge with below normal temps running across the GL/Northern parts of the country especially from the Lakes back to the west across the N.Plains to the PAC NW.

More importantly is Canada progressivly turns colder so that by week 4 it is pretty cold along and north of the border into Canada.

Someone said week 2 as well, but obviously that was wrong. Regardless, good to hear about the second half (weeks 3 and 4). Though this start to winter has been so bad...and resultant pattern so hard to break, I'll believe it when I see it. Kinda of dumb of me to say, but I'm in a cynical stage right now. :lol:

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Week 3 YES but week 2? While week 2 may not be as warm as it has been the problem is the ridge is just west of us and ala nw flow type pattern which screams boring to me.

Week 3 does look good. weak se ridge with below normal temps running across the GL/Northern parts of the country especially from the Lakes back to the west across the N.Plains to the PAC NW. near normal down your way/along i70 with the above normal stuff along and south of the river to the Mid Atlantic.

More importantly is Canada progressivly turns colder so that by week 4 it is pretty cold along and north of the border into Canada.

Thats good news! Hopefully we can manage a few snowfalls the next 2 weeks, despite the bad pattern (as we have already seen, it will snow some in this crummy pattern) then bring on a pattern change :)

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It's preferable right now. I did see a mention in another sub-forum that the Euro weeklies looked "good" for weeks 2 and 3. Yawn.

It's a good thing you can't visually see it...

Torch the first 3 weeks of January, with a few quick shots of "cold" air mixed in. +15 at 850mb near the Canadian border for a time.

Final week+ of January begins cold with some sort of PV over the Lakes/SE. Canada/NE.

Edit: Harry beat me to it.

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Someone said week 2 as well, but obviously that was wrong. Regardless, good to hear about the second half (weeks 3 and 4). Though this start to winter has been so bad...and resultant pattern so hard to break, I'll believe it when I see it. Kinda of dumb of me to say, but I'm in a cynical stage right now. :lol:

Dare i guess the New England Forum? :P I suppose for there they could score something week2. My hunch is though whatever tries and come out of the west/sw would get squashed.

I have been nearing that stage but i now think there IS some light and the the end that is now showing up. Regardless it sucks that we had to once again piss a part of winter away on this crap. Oh to have been here from 66-67 till say 81-82. lol :weenie:

It's a good thing you can't visually see it...

Torch the first 3 weeks of January, with a few quick shots of "cold" air mixed in. +15 at 850mb near the Canadian border for a time.

Final week+ of January begins cold with some sort of PV over the Lakes/SE. Canada/NE.

Edit: Harry beat me to it.

Yeah that is quite the torch the have early on in the midle of the country up into centeral Canada.

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Someone said week 2 as well, but obviously that was wrong. Regardless, good to hear about the second half (weeks 3 and 4). Though this start to winter has been so bad...and resultant pattern so hard to break, I'll believe it when I see it. Kinda of dumb of me to say, but I'm in a cynical stage right now. :lol:

If the pattern change is deeper into January then the 7th I will vomit. We already lost 1/3rd of the snowmobile season... Lets not make it half.

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