cyclone77 Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Picked up another 0.02" of rain this morning. 0.04" of rain total from this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Good bit of fog here in Michiana this morning caused a good number of school delays. Rinse and repeat for Thursday, I guess. Actually I am finding this milder than usual period rather interesting. Where is the Greenland block? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 ...Actually I am finding this milder than usual period rather interesting. Where is the Greenland block? Yeah, it has been very discouraging so far with the lack of snow, but it is kind of interesting as well. It's sort of an extreme in the opposite direction we want, but the fact that it is "extreme" is kind of cool I guess. Definitely makes you appreciate some of the snowier seasons many of us had had lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 18z GFS is what nightmares are made of. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 18z GFS is what nightmares are made of. Probably time to stop looking at the extended range on the models. Give it 7-10 days away, come back to see if there's improvement. If not wash, rinse, repeat. Though soon enough it'll be Spring. Easier said then done though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 18z GFS dumps an inch on Madison overnight, much better than previous runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Probably time to stop looking at the extended range on the models. Give it 7-10 days away, come back to see if there's improvement. If not wash, rinse, repeat. Though soon enough it'll be Spring. Easier said then done though. Sound advice. I'm basically still here only because of the faint hope that Friday's storm nudges NW a bit. Once that fails, I'm going to take a solid week to ten days away from the board. This waiting and watching is becoming enervating. I see some of the mets on the main forum are becoming slightly more impressed with the prospects of a SSW dislodging the PV southward. I figure that's going to take some time though. I doubt that when I get back early in the NY we're going to be into a changed pattern, but hopefully we'll be able to see it in the extended range models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 0.25" of rain today and some seriously thick fog this afternoon. We ain't going to break the all time record for wettest year on record in Waterloo. We need 140mm, and I think we're somewhere near 30mm right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 18z GFS dumps an inch on Madison overnight, much better than previous runs. Yeah, the latest New RUC run dumps 1-2" north and west of Milwaukee, and just north of Madison. Of course, once again, we are right on the edge of the accumulation, probably going to get just screwed out of yet another light snowfall. Sick and tired of being on the edge and just missing out on excitement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 Looks like a window of opportunity for some light lake effect precip in northwest IN (possibly eastern Cook county IL?) early Friday. Setup is marginal with lake-850 mb delta T no better than the mid teens but anything is worth mentioning in this pattern. Definitely worth mentioning in this horrible pattern! Probably the only chance the area has for snow in the next week. Today was about the fluctuations between drizzle and light rain and the different shades of gray in the clouds! I've tallied 191 mostly cloudy to cloudy days this year! Chicago may have broken into 2nd wettest year on record today. 1st is 2008: 50.86", 2nd is/was: 1983: 49.35", 3rd is/was 2011: 49.26". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 Sound advice. I'm basically still here only because of the faint hope that Friday's storm nudges NW a bit. Once that fails, I'm going to take a solid week to ten days away from the board. This waiting and watching is becoming enervating. I see some of the mets on the main forum are becoming slightly more impressed with the prospects of a SSW dislodging the PV southward. I figure that's going to take some time though. I doubt that when I get back early in the NY we're going to be into a changed pattern, but hopefully we'll be able to see it in the extended range models. The SSW stuff is a little over my head, but interesting. At this point, I fully expect to not have much if any improvement of my season snowfall through January 10-15. Sounds goofy, but probably realistic. In the meantime, just laugh at how awful and sustained this pattern has been. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 Yeah, the latest New RUC run dumps 1-2" north and west of Milwaukee, and just north of Madison. Of course, once again, we are right on the edge of the accumulation, probably going to get just screwed out of yet another light snowfall. Sick and tired of being on the edge and just missing out on excitement. Hopefully it'll shift a little and you'll get an accumulation, as long as I still get mine Clouds and maybe precip breaking out in IA now, HRRR shows it spreading into WI in the next few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 Hopefully it'll shift a little and you'll get an accumulation, as long as I still get mine Clouds and maybe precip breaking out in IA now, HRRR shows it spreading into WI in the next few hours. I think temps are still the big problem, the lake remains a factor and will until/if we get an arctic outbreak probably. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 That topic in the climate change forum, "Arctic Sea...free by 2015"...really p!sses me off. The guy claiming the Arctic to be "ice free" by 2015, is nonsense. There many variables you have to analyze before reaching to such a conclusion. Its da same bs every year, since 2007. Anyways, is anyone going to create a topic for January? I'm probably going to analayze January more carefully this weekend, should have a post on it next Tuesday. Otherwise, December 2011 sucks balls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 That topic in the climate change forum, "Arctic Sea...free by 2015"...really p!sses me off. The guy claiming the Arctic to be "ice free" by 2015, is nonsense. There many variables you have to analyze before reaching to such a conclusion. Its da same bs every year, since 2007.Anyways, is anyone going to create a topic for January? I'm probably going to analayze January more carefully this weekend, should have a post on it next Tuesday. Otherwise, December 2011 sucks balls. Those guys have funding riding on global warming being real. They get offended very similarly to a union buster showing up at a UAW meeting when you show doubt on that board. Sent from my ADR6425LVW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 I think temps are still the big problem, the lake remains a factor and will until/if we get an arctic outbreak probably. I am hoping for some lake effect tomorrow night. Probably take a miracle to have it accumulate though! Temperature finally falling back to freezing. Has been above freezing almost 4 days here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 Joe..I have nothing but respect for you but I guess in a way he is right (snowfreak) because everyone is different and has different expectations. Hes always trolling....but really. Ask a skiier, snowborder, any winter sports enthusiast or hell, a snow-loving kid who likes to play in the snow every day. Do you care about how much snow officially falls from November through April or do you just care about how often/how much snow is on the ground so you can do your thing? Gee, I wonder what the answer will be In fact Ill call it now...we will have above average snowfall but below average snowcover when the season wraps up (Average snowfall is 42.7" and 1"+ snowcover is 49 days) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 The new RGEM breaks out a respectable band of snow from Cedar Rapids up to Madison after midnight. Maybe an inch or so if that pans out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 22, 2011 Author Share Posted December 22, 2011 Wednesday, December 21st: Hi: 41F Lo: 36F Overall Sky Conditions: Cloudy Max Wind Gust: 18MPH Rainfall: 0.03" Snowfall: 0.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 22, 2011 Author Share Posted December 22, 2011 Hes always trolling....but really. Ask a skiier, snowborder, any winter sports enthusiast or hell, a snow-loving kid who likes to play in the snow every day. Do you care about how much snow officially falls from November through April or do you just care about how often/how much snow is on the ground so you can do your thing? Gee, I wonder what the answer will be In fact Ill call it now...we will have above average snowfall but below average snowcover when the season wraps up (Average snowfall is 42.7" and 1"+ snowcover is 49 days) in order to to be a winter/snow lover you don't have to enjoy snowcover. many are just in it for other things such as the actual tracking/forecasting and the actual event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 in order to to be a winter/snow lover you don't have to enjoy snowcover. many are just in it for other things such as the actual tracking/forecasting and the actual event. That still doesn't mean you're right if you say that all one cares about is if snowfall is above average. That is what you were saying. Edit: I don't disagree with your statement above, was referring to a discussion from earlier. In fact, I am one of those who enjoys tracking rather than snowcover. However, if I get a great storm or two, I can deal with being below average for the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 22, 2011 Author Share Posted December 22, 2011 That still doesn't mean you're right if you say that all one cares about is if snowfall is above average. That is what you were saying. you totally missed what i did there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 Keep in mind, hitting average snowfall isnt everything to a winter lover of course. This is what I was referring to. He is right (and if he isn't, someone should stand up and say that all they care about is exceeding their average). Instead of backing up your statement, all you are doing is saying he is wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 All I care about is tracking exciting weather, snow/ice/severe give me one of the 3. I don't care which one. I am not a numbers man hell if we got 25" of snow but 20 of it came in one monumental blizzard I would be a happy man. The only numbers I would care about are records. I think when it boils down, most are like this. Not saying numbers don't matter either its just that most care more about exciting weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 .UPDATE... THE ELEVATED FRONTOGENETIC SNOW BAND IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP AND PUSH INTO SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN AT MID EVENING. THIS FORCING IS BASED AROUND 700MB IS BECOMES VERY FOCUSED AROUND 09Z IN A NARROW BAND RUNNING FROM THE MILWAUKEE/PORT WASHINGTON AREA BACK WEST SOUTHWEST TO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THERE/S ALSO A NARROW 1.5PV ANOMALY BAND THAT SWINGS UP AT THE SAME TIME. THIS MOSTLY OCCURS BEHIND AN EXITING SFC TROF/CDFNT THIS EVENING. THE PV AND FRONTOGENETIC FORCING THEN QUICKLY DISSIPATE BY MID MORNING ON THURSDAY. ISENTROPICALLY... THERE IS A SIMILAR NARROW BAND OF VERY LOW CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS THAT DEVELOPS OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN WITH 2 TO 3 G/KG OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE. SO...EXPECT GRADUALLY LOWERING CIGS AS THE COLUMN SATURATES FROM LATE EVENING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. SNOW WILL BEGIN REACHING THE GROUND AND WE COULD SEE SOME POCKETS OF LOWER VSBYS IN THE 1 TO 3 MILE RANGE AFTER MIDNIGHT. WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW 2 INCH SNOW ACCUMS IN THE END...BUT MOST PLACES UNDER THE BAND WILL SEE AN INCH OF SNOW. AREAS ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA WILL LIKELY MISS OUT ON MUCH OF THE SNOW...SAME WITH THE FAR SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH. AGAIN...THIS SNOW BAND WILL BE NARROW AND FOCUSED. Quote button is not working, but worth noting the potential isolated 2 inch amounts in this boring pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 22, 2011 Author Share Posted December 22, 2011 This is what I was referring to. He is right (and if he isn't, someone should stand up and say that all they care about is exceeding their average). Instead of backing up your statement, all you are doing is saying he is wrong. keep trying. you will catch on eventually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 Light freezing rain being reported just to the west of Madison in the Wisconsin River Valley. Disappointing, but this thing is gonna leave in the morning so there is plenty of time for it to evolve into snow. Temperatures are forecast to drop tonight, which will be aided by evaporational cooling until the column reaches saturation. Low-levels are already saturated, but there is clearly some mid-level dry air since there's alot of virga, so that cool air will be mixed down. Even freezing rain could be interesting on a night like tonight, since temperatures are going to drop. We could end up with a sheet of ice. Needless to say, I'm staying up for this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 Precipitation has commenced, light rain. Not quite freezing rain since it's 34 °F. 925 hPa is at -1 °C so I expect the changeover to occur if precipitation is persistent. Just gotta develop that cold pool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 Hopefully Milwaukee will get there first inch tonight/morning! Partial clearing closer to the IL/WI has aided in dropping temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 Hopefully Milwaukee will get there first inch tonight/morning! Partial clearing closer to the IL/WI has aided in dropping temps. The temperature is rising on top of the meteorology building as the rain moves in, 34.7 °F. I think it's mostly due to the surface cold layer being mixed out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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